Current Climate Trends and Implications · Current Climate Trends and Implications Dr. Mark Seeley Professor emeritus Department of Soil, Water, and Climate University of Minnesota

Current Climate Trends and Implications

Dr. Mark SeeleyProfessor emeritus

Department of Soil, Water, and ClimateUniversity of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Crop Insurance ConferenceSeptember 12, 2018

Mankato, MN

2” thunderstorm at Mankato, MN

Sep 12, 1984

92 degrees F at Mankato, MN Sep 12, 1998

-31 degrees F Mankato, MNSep 12, 1955

Dust storm at Mankato, MN Sep 12, 1931

Today in Mankato Climate History

Segments

Big picture disparities

Changes in Regional Climate Attributes

Examination of Extremes

Current Climate Conditions

Outlooks

Disparity in the pace of climate change relative to temperature

Geographic Disparity in Precipitation Change-IPCC 2013

2017 warmth by state

Statewide Precipitation Ranks for Jan-Sep, 2017

Temp trend is upward and more frequently above the 90th percentile, pace is 2°F per century

Minnesota Mean Annual Temperature Trends

Seasonal Statewide Temperature Trends in MN

Winter (D,J,F) Spring (M,A,M)

Summer (J,J,A) Fall (S,O,N)

‐3.0

‐2.0

‐1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

Augu

st

September

October

November

December

Annual

degrees F per century

Minnesota State‐Averaged Temperature Trends1895‐2013

Maximum Temperature Trend Minimum Temperature Trend Difference (Max minus Min)

Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Austin, MN 1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)

Month Min Change Max Change Mean ChangeJanuary +3.0 +2.1 +2.5February +0.1 +0.2 +0.1March -0.1 -0.1 -0.2April +1.3 +0.2 +0.7May +0.9 -0.8 +0.1 June +1.6 -0.4 +0.5July +1.1 +0.2 +0.7August +1.6 +0.4 +1.0September +1.3 +0.6 +1.0October +1.7 -0.3 +0.7November +2.1 +1.7 +1.9December +2.2 +1.4 +1.8

Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Waseca, MN 1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)

Month Min Change Max Change Mean ChangeJanuary +2.5 +1.9 +2.2February +0.5 +0.7 +0.6March +0.7 +1.1 +0.9April +0.9 +1.7 +1.2May +0.7 -0.1 +0.3 June +1.2 +0.3 +0.7July +1.1 +0.5 +0.7August +1.1 +0.7 +0.9September +1.3 +0.8 +1.1October +0.6 +0.4 +0.5November +1.1 +1.5 +1.3December +1.2 +0.9 +1.0

Trends in mean monthly temperatures at Mankato, MN 1971-2000 normals vs 1981-2010 normals (F)

Month Min Change Max Change Mean ChangeJanuary +2.3 +1.5 +1.9February +0.7 +0.2 +0.4March +0.5 +0.2 +0.3April +0.6 +0.6 +0.6May +1.0 -1.2 -0.2 June +0.9 -1.0 -0.1July +0.8 -0.6 +0.1August +1.0 -0.6 +0.1September +1.5 -0.1 +0.6October +0.8 -0.5 +0.1November +1.7 +1.4 +1.5December +2.0 +0.8 +1.3

Great Lakes Region (32°F threshold)

-10

-5

0

5

10

1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995

Year

Fro

st-

Fre

e S

ea

so

n (

da

ys

fro

m n

orm

al)

Length Spring FallSource: K. Kunkel, Midwest. Reg. Clim. Center

Consequences of Warm Winters and Higher Minimum Temperatures

• Change in depth and duration of soil and lake freezing• More rapid breakdown of crop residues• Later fall nitrogen applications (soil temp too high)• Longer outdoor construction season, fewer adverse

weather days• Change in over winter survival rates of insect pests and

plant diseases, and soil microbes• Reduced energy use for heating (fewer HDD)• Change in Plant Hardiness Zones• Longer frost-free growing seasons• Increased number of freeze/thaw cycles (damaged roads)• Change in animal migration, hibernation, and foraging• Longer exposure times to mold and allergens

Winter (D,J,F) Spring (M,A,M)

Summer (J,J,A) Fall (S,O,N)

Seasonal Trends in MN Precipitation

Average Annual PPT 1891‐1920, in

Average Annual PPT 1921‐1950, in

Average Annual PPT 1951‐1980, in Average Annual PPT 1981‐2010, in

Avg. Annual PPT, in

< 20

21 - 25

26 - 28

29 - 30

> 30

Change in Annual Precipitation“Normals” at Austin, MN

PERIOD AMOUNT (IN.)1941-1970 30.94”1951-1980 29.84”1961-1990 28.94”1971-2000 31.97”1981-2010 34.55”

12 percent increase since 1941-1970 period

Change in Annual Precipitation“Normals” at Waseca, MN

PERIOD AMOUNT (IN.)

1921-1950 27.55”1931-1960 27.82”1941-1970 29.94”1951-1980 30.62”1961-1990 32.45”1971-2000 34.69”1981-2010 35.72”

30 percent increase since 1921-1950 period

Change in Annual Precipitation“Normals” at Mankato, MN

PERIOD AMOUNT (IN.)

1921-1950 27.26”1931-1960 28.09”1941-1970 29.31”1951-1980 28.37”1961-1990 28.89”1971-2000 30.91”1981-2010 31.95”

17 percent increase since 1921-1950 period

Historical recurrence interval of 2 inch rains in southern and eastern MN was calculated to be once per year. This is no longer the case.

Observed 2 inch rainfalls for the period 1991 –2015 and maximum single day value for various communities:Location No. 2 in. rains Maximum Value (date)Albert Lea 49 7.50 (6/15/1978)Waseca 54 5.63 (9/23/2010)Winnebago 47 8.64 (9/25/2005)Owatonna 46 6.47 (8/19/2007)Amboy 42 9.48 (9/23/2010)Windom 40 8.84 (9/23/2010)Fairmont 41 6.20 (9/15/2004) Blue Earth 47 5.50 (6/15/1978)Bricelyn 42 9.22 (9/14/2004)

Radiosonde history of PW at MSP since 1948

Observations – Minnesota Trends

Minnesota Mega‐rain Events

August 6, 1866, Southern MinnesotaJuly 17‐19 1867, Central Minnesota July 20‐22, 1909, Northern MinnesotaSeptember 9‐10, 1947 Iron RangeJuly 21‐22, 1972, Grand Daddy Flash FloodJune 28‐29, 1975, Northwest MinnesotaJuly 23‐24, 1987, Twin Cities SuperstormJune 9‐10, 2002, Northern MinnesotaSeptember 14‐15, 2004 Southern MinnesotaAugust 18‐20, 2007, Southern MinnesotaSeptember 22‐23, 2010 Southern MinnesotaJune 19‐20, 2012, Northeast MinnesotaJuly 11‐12, 2016 central and east‐central MinnesotaAugust 10‐11, 2016 west‐central and southeastern Minnesota

*Defined as 6” or greater  rains cover at least 1000 square miles and a peak amount of 8” or greater

Shift in Precipitation Recurrence

Intervals

Mega Rains since 2002

MN Counties designated for

federal disaster assistance in

2012

All are associated with drought except those

with

which designates for flood or severe

storm

Possible Implications of Changes in Precipitation Quantity and Character

• Altered irrigation, drainage, runoff, sediment, and shoreline management

• Change in storm sewer runoff design• Modified fisheries management• Mitigation of soil erosion• Mitigation of flooding potential

U.S. Drought Monitor 2018

Lamberton, MN

5ft soil moisture profile

Sep-Nov Oct-Dec Nov-Jan

Ensemble forecast for Oct-Dec, 2018 Temperature Anomaly

Ensemble forecast for precipitation anomaly Oct-Dec 2018

SUMMARY

Trends toward warmer temperature and more precipitation continue in recent years.

Probability for an extended fall season is high

Probability for another warm winter (Dec-Feb) is high

Probability for early spring is high (at least 80% in most cases).

Probability for warmer than normal growing in 2019 season is high.

Outlook for moisture is uncertain, but stored soil moisture by December of 2018 will be an indicator of production potential for 2019