Communications, Travel and Social Networks since 1840: A Study Using Agent-based Models Supervisors: Nigel Gilbert, Richard Harper Lynne Hamill Centre.
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Communications, Travel and Social Networks since 1840:A Study Using Agent-based Models
Supervisors: Nigel Gilbert, Richard Harper
Lynne Hamill
Centre for Research in Social SimulationUniversity of Surrey, UK
Microsoft Summer School, June 2010
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Outline
• Communication & travel
• Computational sociology
• Results
• Doing a PhD
3
Overview
Key idea: The more we communicate, the more we travel.
Approach: • Person-to-person social communication • Interaction of transport, communication &
social networks• Three case studies
Communication & travel
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1. 1840-1913: Mail & rail
Communications & travel
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
No.
per
hea
d pe
r ye
ar
Items of mail Rail journeys
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2. 1951-2001: Phones & cars
Communications & travel
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Per
cent
of
hous
ehol
ds
Phones Cars
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3. 1998-2007: Digital age
Communications & travel
0
20
40
60
80
10019
98
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Per
cent
of
hous
ehol
ds
Fixed phone Home computer Internet Mobile phone
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General model: adoption
Adoption of a new mode of communication depends on
• availability
• affordability
• skills
• social networks
Communications & travel
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General model: use (1)
A new mode of communication affects communication use in four ways:
• Social solidarity effect
• Communication substitution
• New practices
• Global village effect
Communications & travel
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General model: use (2)
A new mode of communication affects travel in three ways
• Travel substitution effect
• Travel complementarity effect
• Travel communications effect
Communications & travel
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Sociology
Computational sociology
• Study of society• Individuals & society
– the micro-macro problem• Emergence & complexity
Strogatz (1994):“…linear systems can be broken down into parts. Then
each part can be solved separately and finally recombined to get the answer. But many things in nature don’t act in this way. Whenever parts of a system interfere, or cooperate, or compete, there are nonlinear interactions going on. Most of everyday life is nonlinear.”
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Computational sociology
Computational sociology
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Agent-based models
Two components• Environment:
– representing social space
• Agents: who interact with one another and the environment – representing individuals or households, with
characteristics that can change over time
Computational sociology
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Examples
0
20
40
60
80
100
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
% w
ith in
tern
et
Computational sociology
Model Results
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Key results
• Demand for communications and travel generated from social networks.
• The importance of literacy• Same model with different parameters can
reproduce adoption of mobiles and internet• Internet differs from previous communication
modes because in enables new contacts
Results
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Forecasts: 2021
• Texting: – two-thirds higher compared to 2007
• Internet: – Personal networks 15% larger – 2½ times more online links than in 2007
Results
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Tips
• Stay focussed
• Take supervisors’ advice
• Don’t underestimate the time needed for the ‘end game’
• Enjoy it!
Doing a PhD
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www.hamill.co.uk
Thank you
Lynne Hamill
Centre for Research in Social SimulationUniversity of Surrey, UK
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