Climate Information Needed to Inform Resource Management Decision-making

Climate Information Needed to Inform Resource Management

Decision-making

High scientific credibility

Regionally specific

Define the range of uncertainty/ level of confidence

Climate variables relevant to resource management

Climate Scenarios for the Northern Rockies

A Joint Venture of: U.S. Forest Service Northern Region

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Region 6

Climate Impacts Group of University of Washington (NOAA funded)

Replicated by USFS Region 6/PNW Station

Four Main Deliverables

Statistical Summaries of Observed (20th Century) Trends in Temperature and Precip

Northern Rockies Specific Evaluation of 21st Century Projections from 20 GCMS

Statistical downscaling of 3 - 4 selected GCMs/emissions scenarios

Hydrologic Impacts

20 Climate Models

BCCR SW GFDL CM 2.1 US

CCSM3 US GISS-AOM US

CGCM (T47) CAN GISS-ER US

CGCM (T63) CAN HADCM3 UK

CNRM FR HADGEM1 UK

CSIRO AUS INMCM RU

ECHAM5 GER IPSL FR

ECHO-G KOR MIROC JP

FGOALS CHI MIROS-hires JP

GFDL CM 2.0 US PCM US

Multiple Emissions Scenarios

Regional Evaluation of 20 GCMS Skill at simulating observed 20th

Century trends

Each model run with 2 Emissions Scenarios B1 and A1B

Weighted ensemble average

Identification of “Best-case” scenario

“Worst-case” scenario

“Medium” or Average scenario

Range of Uncertainty from Different Models

Multi-Model Range: Precipitation

Statistical Downscaling of 3-4 GCMs

GCMs have coarse spatial resolution

Relatively simple delta method of statistical d0wnscaling

Hydrologic Response Model

Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model

Snow water equivalent

Annual Runoff

Seasonal stream flow

Soil Moisture

Potential evapotranspiration

Climate Projections are not Weather Forecasts

Climate projections estimate potential changes in long-term (generally 2-3 decade) averages

Users and resource managers need to understand limitations, key sources of uncertainty, and appropriate uses of climate projections.

Climate will still vary from year to year

Climate VariabilityClimate Variability & & Climate ChangeClimate Change

Climate VariabilityClimate Variability

Short term : (years to Short term : (years to decadal) rises and decadal) rises and falls about the trend falls about the trend line (ENSO)line (ENSO)

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Long Term Trends or Long Term Trends or major shifts in climate: major shifts in climate: (centuries)(centuries)

NormalsNormalsClimate OscillationsClimate Oscillations

MultiMulti--decadal decadal oscillations in regional oscillations in regional climate: (e.g. PDO)climate: (e.g. PDO)

NormalsNormals

Changes in Averages versus in Extremes

Benefits/Uses Regionally Specific Downscaled Climate

Projections Understand magnitude and direction of

projected “local” changes

Improve understanding of uncertainty and confidence in climate projections

Reference dataset for evaluating potential impacts

Context for planning to sustain natural resources with high public values