Climate Information Needed to Inform Resource Management Decision-making High scientific credibility Regionally specific Define the range of uncertainty/ level of confidence Climate variables relevant to resource management
Climate Information Needed to Inform Resource Management Decision-making
Jan 19, 2016
Climate Information Needed to Inform Resource Management Decision-making. High scientific credibility Regionally specific Define the range of uncertainty/ level of confidence Climate variables relevant to resource management. Climate Scenarios for the Northern Rockies. A Joint Venture of: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Climate Information Needed to Inform Resource Management
Decision-making
High scientific credibility
Regionally specific
Define the range of uncertainty/ level of confidence
Climate variables relevant to resource management
Climate Scenarios for the Northern Rockies
A Joint Venture of: U.S. Forest Service Northern Region
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Region 6
Climate Impacts Group of University of Washington (NOAA funded)
Replicated by USFS Region 6/PNW Station
Four Main Deliverables
Statistical Summaries of Observed (20th Century) Trends in Temperature and Precip
Northern Rockies Specific Evaluation of 21st Century Projections from 20 GCMS
Statistical downscaling of 3 - 4 selected GCMs/emissions scenarios
Hydrologic Impacts
20 Climate Models
BCCR SW GFDL CM 2.1 US
CCSM3 US GISS-AOM US
CGCM (T47) CAN GISS-ER US
CGCM (T63) CAN HADCM3 UK
CNRM FR HADGEM1 UK
CSIRO AUS INMCM RU
ECHAM5 GER IPSL FR
ECHO-G KOR MIROC JP
FGOALS CHI MIROS-hires JP
GFDL CM 2.0 US PCM US
Multiple Emissions Scenarios
Regional Evaluation of 20 GCMS Skill at simulating observed 20th
Century trends
Each model run with 2 Emissions Scenarios B1 and A1B
Weighted ensemble average
Identification of “Best-case” scenario
“Worst-case” scenario
“Medium” or Average scenario
Range of Uncertainty from Different Models
Multi-Model Range: Precipitation
Statistical Downscaling of 3-4 GCMs
GCMs have coarse spatial resolution
Relatively simple delta method of statistical d0wnscaling
Hydrologic Response Model
Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model
Snow water equivalent
Annual Runoff
Seasonal stream flow
Soil Moisture
Potential evapotranspiration
Climate Projections are not Weather Forecasts
Climate projections estimate potential changes in long-term (generally 2-3 decade) averages
Users and resource managers need to understand limitations, key sources of uncertainty, and appropriate uses of climate projections.
Climate will still vary from year to year
Climate VariabilityClimate Variability & & Climate ChangeClimate Change
Climate VariabilityClimate Variability
Short term : (years to Short term : (years to decadal) rises and decadal) rises and falls about the trend falls about the trend line (ENSO)line (ENSO)
Climate ChangeClimate Change
Long Term Trends or Long Term Trends or major shifts in climate: major shifts in climate: (centuries)(centuries)
NormalsNormalsClimate OscillationsClimate Oscillations
MultiMulti--decadal decadal oscillations in regional oscillations in regional climate: (e.g. PDO)climate: (e.g. PDO)
NormalsNormals
Changes in Averages versus in Extremes
Benefits/Uses Regionally Specific Downscaled Climate
Projections Understand magnitude and direction of
projected “local” changes
Improve understanding of uncertainty and confidence in climate projections
Reference dataset for evaluating potential impacts
Context for planning to sustain natural resources with high public values
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