Climate Change and Wildlife

Climate Change and Wildlife

David King Northern Research Station USFS

Umass Amherst, MA

Presentation scope • “Wildlife”

– As designated by DeGraaf and Yamasaki • Birds (226) • Mammals (65) • Reptiles (29) • Amphibians (23)

• New England

Temperature influences distribution

Root 1988

35 km north 66 m up

Auer and King 2014

Prediction – Latitudinal and elevational shifts

35 km north 66 m up

Auer and King 2014

Prediction – Latitudinal and elevational shifts

Threats from climate change

Staudinger et al. 2013

• Temperature extremes • Habitat shifts and alteration • Drought • Flooding

Habitat shifts and alteration Case Study: Spruce-fir birds

Lambert et al. 2005

Bicknell’s thrush Yellow-bellied Flycatcher Magnolia Warbler

King et al. 2008

Habitat shifts and alteration Case Study: Spruce-fir birds

Beckage et al. 2008

Habitat shifts and alteration Case Study: Spruce-fir birds

Elevational shifts in NH Consistent with predictions

DeLuca et al. In Review

Elevational shifts in NH Consistent with predictions

Hamburg and Cogbill 1988

Elevational shifts in SF Contrary to predictions

DeLuca et al. In Review

Elevational shifts in SF Contrary to predictions

Foster and D’Amato 2015

Interactive effects Elevation shifts, predators, mast and CO2

DeLuca 2013

Interactive effects Elevation shifts, predators, mast and CO2

DeLuca 2013

Interactive effects Elevation shifts, predators, mast and CO2

DeLuca 2013

Duclos et al. In Prep.

Species Distribution

Climate H1

Direct vs. indirect effects

Duclos et al. In Prep.

Species Distribution

Climate

Vegetation

H2

H1

H2

Direct vs. indirect effects

Rines 2015

Direct vs. indirect effects

Strong et al. In Prep.

Direct vs. indirect effects

Pauli et al. 2013

Loss of nivian/subnivian

Increased predation

Increased predation

Thompson 2007

Cox et al. 2013

Increased predation

Thompson 2007

Both et al. 2006

Laney et al. 2015

Phenological mismatch

Disturbance and succession

Smetzer, King and Schlossberg 2014.

Drought

Brooks 2004

Jones and Sievert 2009

Flooding

Flooding

Lowe 2012

Conclusions and discussion • Shifts observed with latitude and elevation

– Consider landscape context and local relief

Conclusions and discussion • Shifts observed with latitude and elevation

– Consider landscape context and local relief • Impacts on habitat and hydrology

– Manage for resistance/resilience

Conclusions and discussion • Shifts observed with latitude and elevation

– Consider landscape context and local relief • Impacts on habitat and hydrology

– Manage for resistance/resilience • Climate impacts complex and interactive

– Limits species-specific planning/mitigation

Conclusions and discussion • Shifts observed with latitude and elevation

– Consider landscape context and local relief • Impacts on habitat and hydrology

– Manage for resistance/resilience • Climate impacts complex and interactive

– Limits species-specific planning/mitigation • Adopt strategies robust to uncertainty

– “low regrets” – Adaptive approach

Conclusions and discussion • Shifts observed with latitude and elevation

– Consider landscape context and local relief • Impacts on habitat and hydrology

– Manage for resistance/resilience • Climate impacts complex and interactive

– Limits species-specific planning/mitigation • Adopt strategies robust to uncertainty

– “low regrets” – Adaptive approach

• Research and monitoring – Identify priorities/vulnerabilities – Management effectiveness

Questions?