Climate Change and Thermal Sensitivity of Commercial Marine Species Workshop on Project Results, Interpretation, and Feedback 24 October 2006 McGill Global.

Climate Change and Thermal Sensitivity of Commercial Marine

Species

Workshop on Project Results, Interpretation, and Feedback

24 October 2006

McGill Global Environmental and Climate Change Centre

• Gail Chmura

Huntsman Marine Science Centre• Lou Van Guelpen• Gerhard Pohle

Workshop schedule

1:00 – welcome, overview

1:10 – presentation of report results• Sea surface temperature changes NW Atlantic – Chmura• Impacts on commercial marine species – Van Guelpen & Pohle

2: 10 – interpretation of results – Dr. Fred Page, DFO St. Andrews

3:00 – break (catered)

3:20 – open forum - audience feedback

4:30 – closing remarks

Project objectives

• changes in distribution of commercially important species greenhouse warming increase in average global air temperature of 4Co by ~2090

• vulnerability to climate change/barriers to their adaptation

• fishing & aquaculture industries and resource managers - initial information

enable consideration of economic consequences and adaptations to upcoming changes

identify new opportunities

Organization

Part A:Sea Surface Temperatures – Present and Future

Part B:1. Impacts of climate change on species distributions

2. Sensitivity analysis

3. Synthesis

4. Commercial impacts

1. Impacts of climate change on species distributions

Methods

• Species

33 marine species of economic importance to Atlantic Canada

capture fishery, aquaculture, bio-invader, or trophically basal prey

northern or southern limit in Canadian Atlantic waters

thermal sensitivities at each life stage

Map legendCLIMATE FORCING

SCENARIOS :

• A2 = high pop. growth, less environmental concern

• B2 = low pop. growth, more

environmental concern

MODELS = 4

COLOURS:

• red = loss of thermal habitat

• green = increase

• blue = no change

• cross hatching = present distribution

Results

Every species – distribution will change

Species groups:

1. GREATEST HABITAT LOSS– in GSL, NS, NF, Lab.

2. LESSER HABITAT LOSS– in GSL, southern NS

3. LEAST HABITAT LOSS– in southern part of species range (~Cape Cod southward)

4. HABITAT GAIN– in GSL, NF, Lab.

Species examined with GREATEST HABITAT LOSS:

Plants Invertebrates Fishes

serrated wrack capelin

Atlantic salmon

GREATEST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic salmon(Salmo salar)

GREATEST HABITAT LOSS

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

• Distribution:habitat loss Cape Cod to tail

of Grand Bank, GSLno northward gain (study

does not reach northern range limit)

Species examined with LESSER HABITAT LOSS:

Plants Invertebrates Fishes

knotted wrack Calanus finmarchicus American plaice

kelp (3 species) northern shrimp

green sea urchin

LESSER HABITAT LOSSNorthern shrimp

(Pandalus borealis)

LESSER HABITAT LOSS Northern shrimp

(Pandalus borealis)

• Distribution:habitat loss Cape Cod

southward; perhaps GSL, Labrador

no northward gain (study does not reach northern range limit)

Species examined with LEAST HABITAT LOSS:

Plants Invertebrates Fishes

rockweed black clam Atlantic wolffish

Atlantic rock crab Atlantic menhaden

eastern oyster Atlantic herring

American lobster Atlantic cod

Atlantic long-fin squid Atlantic halibut

quahog haddock

soft-shelled clam silver hake

blue mussel

Atlantic deep-sea scallop

LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic cod

(Gadus morhua)

LEAST HABITAT LOSS Atlantic cod

(Gadus morhua)

• Distribution: loss of southern habitat

(southern New England southward); perhaps Labrador

no northward gain (study does not reach northern range limit)

Species examined with HABITAT GAIN:

Plants Invertebrates Fishes

blue crab

green crab

Japanese shore crab

common periwinkle

HABITAT GAINJapanese shore crab

(Hemigrapsus sanguineus)

HABITAT GAIN Japanese shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus)

• Special status: invasive species (Pacific); 1988 rapid dispersal, high densities

• Distribution: loss of southern habitat

(Chesapeake to Delaware Bay or

Long Island Sound large northward gain throughout

Canadian Atlantic should extend into Canada w/o

climate change

2. Sensitivity Analysis

Objective• to examine relative sensitivity (vulnerability) of each species to increasing SSTs

Methods

• literature on sensitivity to temperature: incomplete variable - geographic region, season, population, and source (i.e.,

experimental versus observational)

• considered a function of three parameters (in order of importance): mobility during each life history stage absolute temperature range experienced by a species =“stenothermalness” north/south distribution

• each scored• scores added• higher value = less sensitivity

Plants mostsensitive

Fishesgenerally leastsensitive

Sensitivefishes

Leastsensitiveinvertebrates

SensitivityResults

Lesssensitive invert.

3. Synthesis of analyses

Conclusion: degree of impact on distribution ~ stenothermal & N/S distribution

4. Commercial impacts

• project = 33 species• to date - 10 fishes, 5 invertebrates, 0 plants examined • examples following – represent species examined (mostly)

GREATEST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic salmon(Salmo salar)

GREATEST HABITAT LOSS

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

• negative impact - recreational fishery:

mortalitymore frequent closures of

rivers due to warm temps.

• may override progress of recovery and restoration programs

• positive impact - aquaculture longer growing season, faster

growth rate, lower winter mortality

expansion to other waters

b

GREATEST HABITAT LOSSCapelin

(Mallotus villosus)

GREATEST HABITATLOSS

Capelin (Mallotus villosus)

• negative impact – commercial fishery in most regions:

southern Gulf of MaineScotian ShelfGrand BankGulf of St. Lawrenceperhaps Labrador

LESSER HABITAT LOSSNorthern shrimp

(Pandalus borealis)

LESSER HABITAT LOSSNorthern shrimp(Pandalus borealis)

• negative impact – commercial fishing

southern GoM perhaps in southern GSL perhaps Labrador

LESSER HABITAT LOSSAmerican plaice

(Hippoglossoides platessoides)

LESSER HABITAT LOSSAmerican plaice

(Hippoglossoides platessoides)

• negative impact – commercial fishing

southern GoM perhaps GSL perhaps Labrador

LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic deep-sea scallop

(Placopecten magellanicus)

LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic deep-sea scallop

(Placopecten magellanicus)

• negative impact – commercial fishing

approx. NJ southward perhaps Labrador

LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic herring

(Clupea harengus)

LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic herring

(Clupea harengus)

• negative impact – commercial fishing

approx. NJ or Cape Hatteras southward

perhaps Labrador

HABITAT GAINCommon periwinkle(Littorina littorina)

HABITAT GAINCommon periwinkle(Littorina littorina)

• negative impact – commercial fishing

minimal south of Cape Cod southern GoM may become

suboptimal perhaps GSL

• positive impact – potential new fishing

Labrador

HABITAT GAINBlue crab

(Callinectes sapidus)

• fishing – not yet examined• Important in US (comm. & recr.)• positive impact – potential new

fishing in Canada

Project funding:

Natural Resources Canada

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program

Project A515

Interpretation of Results

Dr. Fred PageSection Head

Ocean Sciences DivisionOcean SciencesDFO

St. Andrews Biological Station