Climate Change and Thermal Sensitivity of Commercial Marine Species Workshop on Project Results, Interpretation, and Feedback 24 October 2006 McGill Global Environmental and Climate Change Centre • Gail Chmura Huntsman Marine Science Centre • Lou Van Guelpen • Gerhard Pohle
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Climate Change and Thermal Sensitivity of Commercial Marine Species Workshop on Project Results, Interpretation, and Feedback 24 October 2006 McGill Global.
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Climate Change and Thermal Sensitivity of Commercial Marine
Species
Workshop on Project Results, Interpretation, and Feedback
24 October 2006
McGill Global Environmental and Climate Change Centre
• Gail Chmura
Huntsman Marine Science Centre• Lou Van Guelpen• Gerhard Pohle
Workshop schedule
1:00 – welcome, overview
1:10 – presentation of report results• Sea surface temperature changes NW Atlantic – Chmura• Impacts on commercial marine species – Van Guelpen & Pohle
2: 10 – interpretation of results – Dr. Fred Page, DFO St. Andrews
3:00 – break (catered)
3:20 – open forum - audience feedback
4:30 – closing remarks
Project objectives
• changes in distribution of commercially important species greenhouse warming increase in average global air temperature of 4Co by ~2090
• vulnerability to climate change/barriers to their adaptation
• fishing & aquaculture industries and resource managers - initial information
enable consideration of economic consequences and adaptations to upcoming changes
identify new opportunities
Organization
Part A:Sea Surface Temperatures – Present and Future
Part B:1. Impacts of climate change on species distributions
2. Sensitivity analysis
3. Synthesis
4. Commercial impacts
1. Impacts of climate change on species distributions
Methods
• Species
33 marine species of economic importance to Atlantic Canada
capture fishery, aquaculture, bio-invader, or trophically basal prey
northern or southern limit in Canadian Atlantic waters
thermal sensitivities at each life stage
Map legendCLIMATE FORCING
SCENARIOS :
• A2 = high pop. growth, less environmental concern
• B2 = low pop. growth, more
environmental concern
MODELS = 4
COLOURS:
• red = loss of thermal habitat
• green = increase
• blue = no change
• cross hatching = present distribution
Results
Every species – distribution will change
Species groups:
1. GREATEST HABITAT LOSS– in GSL, NS, NF, Lab.
2. LESSER HABITAT LOSS– in GSL, southern NS
3. LEAST HABITAT LOSS– in southern part of species range (~Cape Cod southward)
4. HABITAT GAIN– in GSL, NF, Lab.
Species examined with GREATEST HABITAT LOSS:
Plants Invertebrates Fishes
serrated wrack capelin
Atlantic salmon
GREATEST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic salmon(Salmo salar)
GREATEST HABITAT LOSS
Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)
• Distribution:habitat loss Cape Cod to tail
of Grand Bank, GSLno northward gain (study
does not reach northern range limit)
Species examined with LESSER HABITAT LOSS:
Plants Invertebrates Fishes
knotted wrack Calanus finmarchicus American plaice
kelp (3 species) northern shrimp
green sea urchin
LESSER HABITAT LOSSNorthern shrimp
(Pandalus borealis)
LESSER HABITAT LOSS Northern shrimp
(Pandalus borealis)
• Distribution:habitat loss Cape Cod
southward; perhaps GSL, Labrador
no northward gain (study does not reach northern range limit)
Species examined with LEAST HABITAT LOSS:
Plants Invertebrates Fishes
rockweed black clam Atlantic wolffish
Atlantic rock crab Atlantic menhaden
eastern oyster Atlantic herring
American lobster Atlantic cod
Atlantic long-fin squid Atlantic halibut
quahog haddock
soft-shelled clam silver hake
blue mussel
Atlantic deep-sea scallop
LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic cod
(Gadus morhua)
LEAST HABITAT LOSS Atlantic cod
(Gadus morhua)
• Distribution: loss of southern habitat
(southern New England southward); perhaps Labrador
no northward gain (study does not reach northern range limit)
Species examined with HABITAT GAIN:
Plants Invertebrates Fishes
blue crab
green crab
Japanese shore crab
common periwinkle
HABITAT GAINJapanese shore crab
(Hemigrapsus sanguineus)
HABITAT GAIN Japanese shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus)
• Special status: invasive species (Pacific); 1988 rapid dispersal, high densities
• Distribution: loss of southern habitat
(Chesapeake to Delaware Bay or
Long Island Sound large northward gain throughout
Canadian Atlantic should extend into Canada w/o
climate change
2. Sensitivity Analysis
Objective• to examine relative sensitivity (vulnerability) of each species to increasing SSTs
Methods
• literature on sensitivity to temperature: incomplete variable - geographic region, season, population, and source (i.e.,
experimental versus observational)
• considered a function of three parameters (in order of importance): mobility during each life history stage absolute temperature range experienced by a species =“stenothermalness” north/south distribution
• each scored• scores added• higher value = less sensitivity
Plants mostsensitive
Fishesgenerally leastsensitive
Sensitivefishes
Leastsensitiveinvertebrates
SensitivityResults
Lesssensitive invert.
3. Synthesis of analyses
Conclusion: degree of impact on distribution ~ stenothermal & N/S distribution
4. Commercial impacts
• project = 33 species• to date - 10 fishes, 5 invertebrates, 0 plants examined • examples following – represent species examined (mostly)
GREATEST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic salmon(Salmo salar)
GREATEST HABITAT LOSS
Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)
• negative impact - recreational fishery:
mortalitymore frequent closures of
rivers due to warm temps.
• may override progress of recovery and restoration programs