Broadband Everywhere Global Perspective FTTx Industries€¦ · Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 90 Drivers for broadband growth TV, media,
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Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 88
Broadband Everywhere
Global Perspective FTTx Industries
Dr. Charilaos ChristopoulosDirector Systems Management
Business Unit Multimedia
Ericsson, Sweden
Mr. Yosuke Yamazaki, Session Chairman:
Let me introduce our first speaker in this session, Mr. Charilaos Christopoulos.
He joined Ericsson in 1995. He has worked with multimedia technologies, standards and applications, including mobile TV, IPTV and IMS.
He has had various positions, including head of MediaLab at Ericsson
Research, business development manager at Multimedia Solutions and recently director of Systems Management at Business Unit Multimedia.
He has a BSc in Physics from Greece, a MSc in Software Engineering from UK and a Ph.D. in image and video processing from Belgium.
Dr. Christopoulos please take the floor.
Dr. Charilaos Christopoulos:
Thank you for coming to this session. You see the title is “Broadband
Everywhere”. This is what we are using in Ericsson when talking about what is
happening in the broadband world, what are the trends, what is the technology
and what are the different marketing options. Of course, a lot will be heard about about the fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) trends.
Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 89
The “digital natives”
The life of a typical 21-year-old entering the workforce today
5,000 hours of video game playing
3,500 hours of online social networking
25,000 emails,
IM, and SMS
10,000 hours of mobile phone use
MySpace/YouTube
Constantly
connected
Different expectationsabout work and play
Sharing/
Blogging
Technologically literate
Content creators and multi-taskers
Source: The Digital Natives Project (2007), Pew Internet & American Life Project (2007), Financial Times (September 20, 2006)
Before I start the presentation I think I need to start with a definition. When I look at myself or at most of you here, I would not really consider us as
what I describe in this slide as “digital natives”. If you look at a person at
age 21, which is joining the workforce, this person has been using about
10,000 hours of mobile phone, has sent and received at least 25,000
emails, IM and SMS, has been spending about 5,000 hours on games on the computer and about 3,500 hours of social networking. Not to mention
that this person is using YouTube everyday downloading videos, and he is
not actually a consumer, he is also a producer. He is uploading his home
videos. I don’t think, you and me are doing this. We are “digital
immigrants”. There is a big difference between these people and us. We know how the world was before everything became digital. We really don’t
know why these people are spending so much time doing that thing and
they don’t know why we are not spending more of our time in this digital
world.
Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 90
Drivers for broadband growth
TV, media, Online gaming
Internet access
(Mobile) mail, remote access
E- education, e- health
Information & communication
Government info, declaration
Machine-to-Machine services
User generated content
Maps and directions
Plentitude of services benefiting individuals, enterprises,
society
More advanced
devices
PC/Laptops/notebooks
Mobile Phones & Communicators
HDTV & LCD screens
Game consoles, MP3 players
Media players
Digital (video) cameras
Health care tools
Cars, fridges, surveillance,...
Increased network capabilities
Increased no. of subscribers
Fiber, VDSL2
Mobile broadband with HSPA
Gbyte HSPA
>100 Mbit/s with LTE
Multiple service support (Voice,
broadband, TV...)
If this broadband was driven by us, then we would not need the 50 Mbit/s. I think it is driven by these young people and these are applications that
we are not really doing, but these applications are actually driving
broadband. We have to understand, what the everyday activities of these people are.
Now we are seeing that people are even approaching high-definition TV. I think, we have to look at the trends of the society and what applications
these “digital natives” are going to use. The drivers for broadband growth
are the number of services we see now. There are, of course, much more
advanced devices. A lot of devices are networked at home. In addition, we have the increased network capabilities.
Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 91
91
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005
2011
Tota
l m
ark
et re
venues (
EU
R b
illio
ns)
Networked Television Networked Music
Networked Gaming Networked Video
Networked Radio Networked Print
2005 – valued just under €20 billion
2011 – overall market size will grow to €107 billion
Networked media market valueA shared opportunity between the industries
Source: Analysys
Research (2006)
Looking at the market we notice two big industries, the media and the telecom working together. We call it networked media. If you see these two industries combined you will see a huge potential. Looking at the telecom market you know you can deliver media efficiently. If you look at the trends we have television, gaming, print, music and video, which is quite a big market. In 2005 the market was just under €20 billion and there is a forecast for 2011 of about €107 billion. Most of this will be in gaming and TV, which has the highest growth. There is a huge demand now for delivering TV content and video-on-demand content over the telecom network, which will make the demand for broadband much higher. That is the market we are trying to capture here.
Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 92
Program production
”linear” TV
Terrestrial
Satellite
Cable TV
Program adaptation
”interactive” TV
Web TV
Fixed wirelessbroadband
Cable TV
FTTX/DSL
Mobile TV
BroadcastingDVB-H
Media-Flo,DMB
3G Unicast
3G MBMS
”IPTV”
The new TV world– From analogue to Digital TV (HDTV)
– From broadcasting to interactive TV
Since TV is the big market, we also have to understand that there will be a
big change in the TV environment. First we know that analogue TV will stop
in a few years. In Sweden we have already digital TV. In Europe it will be
digital around 2012 or so, in Japan around 2011. At the same time we will see, that pure broadcasting or linear TV (on the left side) will fade away and
we will move to interactive TV (on the right side), which will be delivered via
fixed or wireless broadband networks. What I mean here with interactive is
that the users are not really passive anymore. When we see TV and video
services, it is important to notice that the trend is going to IPTV. Even though it means Internet Protocol TV, you can also say that it means
interactive personalized TV.
Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 93
Bandwidth Requirements
per household – today example
� 50-100 Mb/s downstream
� 25-50 Mb/s upstream
� Future proof/scalable
� Quality & Security
� Serving for example;
3 HDTV channels
1-2 SDTV channels
HQ Audio
High speed Internet
Video conferencing
� Initially requiring; 30-50 Mb/s downstream15-30 Mb/s upstream
MB/s
10’s of kb/s
GB/Month
Mb/Month
When you look at the bandwidth which will be required, you notice that most of the TV sets sold now are high-definition. If you encode the HDTV
channel with MPEG4 technology, this is about 8 to 11 Mbit/s, if you use
standard definition TV (SDTV) it is about 1.5 to 2.5 Mbit/s, if you use
MPEG2 you have to double these figures, so it will be 5 Mbit/s for
standard and about 20 Mbit/s for high-definition. Then you can argue do I have 3 TVs at home, that everybody is watching at the same time with
high-definition and in addition 1 or 3 SDTV channels? Why shouldn’t this
be the case in the near future? Assuming such a situation 30 to 50 Mbit/s
will be required for downstream. So, these are the requirements we see
already today. Then given the fact that we are discussing uploading videos and sharing videos, the uplink becomes quite high, too, maybe 15
to 30 Mbit/s. This is what we see as bandwidth requirement for
households today. Certainly, delivering 2 or 8 Mbit/s to a household is not
going to work in the near future. At Ericsson we get the requirements of
50 Mbit/s and more from operators.
Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 94
0
100 000 000
200 000 000
300 000 000
400 000 000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Fixed traffic to grow tenfold by 2012
Subscriber traffic in fixed access networks
Source: Internal Ericsson
IPTV
Internet
Classic
Voice & VoIP
Yearl
y T
era
byte
If you see the forecast on the fixed traffic by 2012 we expect a tenfold growth. In this graph you see on the left that Voice-over-IP is almost zero.
Most of the traffic increase is in Internet and IPTV. You will see some
300mil TBytes requirement, which is the forecast for 2012. Data has
overtaken voice in the year 2000, so this is not even shown in this graph.
This forecast deals with the last meters to the subscriber. How you do it in the backbone will depend on what aggregation model the operator has
used. This is quite consistent with what we get from the operators.
Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 95
Mobile traffic to grow tenfold by 2012Data traffic tripled in 2006
Voice continue growing, but information based services will grow moredriving the need for more mobile broadband spectrum
0
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
Sources: Internal Ericsson 2007
Yearl
y T
era
byte
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
TV/Video
Internet
Voice
In the fixed networks:• data overtook voice
year 2000
In the mobile networks:• data will overtake voice
around 2010
The growth with mobile broadband is similar to the fixed traffic. Data will overtake voice in 2010. In Japan this has already happened. Internet and
TV will be dominating in 2012. We cannot really compare the TBytes of
the fixed and the mobile traffic, that means 300mil to 4mil TBytes,
respectively.
Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 96
3G-HSPA
3G-LTE
Others
xDSL
Fiber (PON & P2P)
Fiber/VDSL2WiMAX
Fixed Mobile
HSPA/LTE
Satellite/Terrestrial
Unlicensed
(WiFi etc)
Others
Cable (DOCSIS2 3)
Broadband comes in many flavors
Fixedaccess
Fixed/nomadicwireless
Mobileaccess
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Su
bscri
ptio
ns (M
illio
ns)
Mobile Fixed
If you look at the graph in the lower right side you see that in 2010 we expect more than 1 billion broadband subscribers, of which half of them
will be fixed and half of them wireless. This number is only half of the truth,
because the fixed subscription comes normally from home members. So
if you look at the number of users we expect half a billion subscriptions but
we expect about three times more users, i.e. 1.5 billion users in the fixed broadband, then about 600 million users in the mobile broadband in the
year 2010, so 2 billion users basically in broadband in total. That is quite
an impressive figure, in 2012 this number of users increases to 2.5 to 3
billion broadband users, not only subscriptions.
Now, broadband comes in many flavors, as you can see on the slide.
Looking at the capacity and speeds, I would say, that with fixed access we
can assume that it is kind of unlimited. Of course, with mobile this is not the case. But anyway, all of these will be delivering more than 10 Mbit/s
downlinks.
Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 97
Main drivers for FTTH/FTTC
� Provides current and future bandwidth needs
� Competition from Cable TV and associated triple play revenues
� Enabler for IPTV Services
� Potential of significantly reducing OPEX
compared to copper access
� Regulatory relief for incumbents deploying fiber networks to speed
up broadband penetration
Now, what are the drivers for fiber-to-the-home (FTTH)? Basically fiber has unlimited capacity. If you do wavelength multiplexing you can talk
about Gbit/s. If the biggest drivers are TV and video applications, we have
to ask who are the main competitors? They are the cable TV companies.
But in fact today they are mainly using the coaxial cables. From that point
of view fiber is the much better technology if you want to provide broadband TV and IPTV services.
There is a big potential for reducing the operating expenses (OPEX)
compared to copper access.
Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 98
Broader view at FTTx CAPEX
Source: Ericsson analysis
"Typical" FTTx cost distribution
8%79%
13%Active electronics
Civil Works
Passive equipment
If you look at what is the cost for installing fiber. Most of it is in the civil works. From what we have seen from the various operators, basically
about 80% is civil works. Of course, this looks like a lot of money, but the
important thing is, from the moment you have done it, there is almost zero
maintenance cost for the coming 20 years compared to other
technologies. So, there is of course a potential to reduce significantly the OPEX by using fiber compared to copper.
Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 99
Worldwide map of PON
GPON
GPON
GPON
GPONBPON
EPON
GPON
BPON
GPON/EPON
GPON/
EPON
GPON/
EPONGPON
GPON
Most countries in the world have now understood the reasons for deploying fiber to speed up broadband penetration. A lot of governments
are trying to support that.
Gigabit Passive Optical Network (GPON) is the technology to which most
of the operators are going. It seems to be the technology for the future.
Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 100
PON and p2p FTTH forcasts
In the bottom graph, where you can see the FTTH subscribers, if you take the year 2010, we expect about 47 million subscribers, of which about 40
million will be in PON technology, while 6.6 million subscribers will have
Ethernet FTTH.
In the top graph, which shows the Ethernet FTTH subscribers by
geographic region, you see in the top line, that this is basically Europe. So
Europe with about 58% will be Ethernet FTTH.
We think that PON is the way to go, which we see in the bottom graph.
Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 101
Network Management
Service Layer
Transport
IMS / Standard Services
Multi Access Edge
Wireline Access Wireless Access
Service layer
Full Service Broadband NetworkHarmonization of Applications, content and network
Multimedia services to a screen of your choice
As for broadband access we have fixed access, we have wireless access
and we talk about a lot of services, which can be delivered over both kinds
of access networks. But we will not be able to compare the speed which is
coming from the mobile broadband to the fixed broadband. That will be another scale, not even the data which will be transferred from the mobile
broadband to the fixed broadband. But what we will see from an operator
trying to compete, we will not see an operator either providing fixed or
mobile access. Most of the operators want to provide triple play services.
The users want to take the services with them.
Besides providing the access technology, there is the challenge for the
operators to provide backbone networks and efficient IP transport networks and how to create services which can be delivered to any access. In this
context, you will hear many times the magic word of convergence, which
has been defined in numerous ways.
Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 102
Increased capacity,
efficiency &
bandwidth through Fiber/VDSL
Group &multimediacom
Media streaming& VoD
IPTV
Networkeddevices
HDTV Revenue from new high bandwidth
services with strict demand on QoSGaming
Broadband every-
where through efficient
HSPA
Revenue from
mobility & increased broadband coverage
Browsing, email, messaging
Downloads and filesharing
Web communities Revenue from
broadband over
ADSL & cable
Broadband connectivity is your business foundation
New Service RevenuesThe Full Service Broadband opportunity
How can an operator make money with these broadband services? If we look at the current situation, where we make revenues with ADSL and
Cable, it is more or less saturated. You can assume that everybody has a
fixed line or cable. If you got stuck in that one, then there will be a
saturation in the income you get.
There are 2 ways an operator can improve his situation, if we talk about broadband everywhere. Wireless is the service where you transport the
services over the mobile network, i.e. address many more users than with
just the fixed network. Mobile broadband is basically now comparable to
ADSL or even better now.
If you want to deliver high quality services, like HDTV, then it means investment in your technology like fiber and VDSL technology.
Broadband Everywhere, Global Perspective – Charilaos Christopoulos – page 103
Broadband market
Operator challenges & solutions
Sustainable business models to meet new players and consumer
demands
Increased speeds to cater for new services, solved by GPON,
VDSL2, HSPA, LTE
Seamless, everywhere connectivity enabling multiple
services, using Full Service
Broadband
Move towards all-IP and deep fiber architectures to handle
increased usage
Cost effective & quick
rollout, enabled by fiber network technologies
There are a lot of challenges for the operator. What is the business model you are going to have? How do we prepare a cost effective rollout? How do I deliver
the contents on GPON, VDSL? Shall I move to all-IP and deep fiber
architecture? How do I deliver the services?
This summarizes basically my presentation:Broadband comes in many flavors
Broadband momentum is shifting to Deep Fiber and Mobile Access enabled
applications, enabling increased capacity, efficiency & bandwidth through FTTx
Harmonization of applications, content and networks is happeningNeed for ”Full Service Vendor”
Thank you very much!
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