Brief Prosperity Profile of Thunder Bay, Ontario

February 8, 2009

A Brief Prosperity Profile of

Thunder Bay, Ontario

Ronnie Sanders and Patrick Adler

Research Associates

2

1. Present Benchmark Peers

2. Describe Selected Measures

a. Some “Lagging”

b. Some “Leading”

3. Get Your Thinking

Where does Thunder Bay

rank?

4. Discussion

Outline / Approach

3

Benchmark Peers

Peer Selection

14 peer states/

provinces for

Ontario based on

population.

10 cities/regions

selected with

populations

approximately the

same as Thunder

Bay.

• Battle Creek, MI

• Bloomington, IL

• College Station, TX

• Kelowna, BC

• Mount Vernon, WA

• Rocky Mount, NC

• Sherbrooke, QC

• State College, PA

• Trois-Rivieres, QC

4

5

Technology

Technology

“A high technology base is both a

necessary condition for and a result

of a region having a strong creative

economy.

Being known as a "high-tech" region

helps to attract the creative

workforce, which, in turn, generates

new technologies making the region

even more high-tech.”

Technology

• “Tech Pole” Index (based on Milken Institute)– Share of total US/Canada “high technology”

– Regional concentration of “high tech” among all industries

• Combination allows smaller, tech-intensive

regions to score well

• US & Canada, based on total employment

7

Tech-Pole Index: Where does Thunder Bay rank?

• Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers)

• Peer Average: 0.021

• Lowest peer score: 0.002 (Battle Creek, MI)

• Highest peer score: 0.079 (State College, PA)

•Where does Thunder Bay

rank?–Top 3?

–Bottom 3?

–Middle 5?8

Tech-Pole Index: Thunder Bay “Middle 5”

9

0.013

0.002

0.002

0.004

0.008

0.012

0.018

0.018

0.030

0.035

0.079

Battle Creek, MI

Dalton, GA

Mount Vernon, WA

Bloomington, IL

Trois-Rivières, QC

Thunder Bay, ON

College Station, TX

Rocky Mount, NC

Kelowna, BC

Sherbrooke , QC

State College, PA

North American Tech Pole IndexToronto, ON and Peer Regions, 2006

10

Talent

Talent

“The concentration of people in the Creative and Super Creative Classes, has a stronger relationship with economic growth.

Creative people don't just cluster where the jobs are. They cluster in places that are centers of creativity and also where they like to live.

Places need a people climate -- or a creativity climate -- as well as a business climate.”

Talent

• “BA and above”

• Percent of population 25 and older with a

bachelor’s (4-year) university degree or higher

(masters, graduate, PhD)

12

Talent Index: Where does Thunder Bay rank?

• Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers)

• Peer Average: 22.2%

• Lowest peer score: 12.0% (Dalton, GA)

• Highest peer score: 40.2% (State College, PA)

•Where does Thunder Bay

rank?–Top 3?

–Bottom 3?

–Middle 5?13

Talent Index: Thunder Bay “Bottom 3”

14

13.0%

12.0%

12.4%

14.0%

14.9%

18.1%

19.1%

21.0%

31.2%

39.8%

40.2%

Dalton, GA

Kelowna, BC

Thunder Bay, ON

Trois-Rivières, QC

Rocky Mount, NC

Sherbrooke , QC

Battle Creek, MI

Mount Vernon, WA

College Station, TX

Bloomington, IL

State College, PA

Talent Index (Pop > 25, BA and above)Thunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006

Talent

• Now, a “Creative Economy”– Innovation, Thinking, Creativity

• “Paid to think”–Everyone has the potential to be creative

• Percent of workforce in the “Creative Class”T = Technology and R&D Innovation

A = Arts and Culture

P = Professional and Managerial

E = Educating and Training

15

Creative Class: Where does Thunder Bay rank?

• Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers)

• Peer Average: 25.4%

• Lowest peer score: 18.5% (Dalton, GA)

• Highest peer score: 32.8% (Sherbrooke, QC)

•Where does Thunder Bay

rank?–Top 3?

–Bottom 3?

–Middle 5?16

Creative Class: Thunder Bay “Middle 5”

17

26.9%

18.5%

21.2%

22.3%

23.6%

24.9%

25.7%

26.8%

27.1%

27.5%

29.4%

Dalton, GA

State College, PA

Rocky Mount, NC

Mount Vernon, WA

College Station, TX

Kelowna, BC

Trois-Rivières, QC

Thunder Bay, ON

Bloomington, IL

Battle Creek, MI

Sherbrooke , QC

Creative Class as % of WorkforceThunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006

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Tolerance / Inclusiveness

Tolerance / Inclusiveness

“Diversity has become a politically

charged buzzword. To some it is an

ideal and rallying cry, to others a

Trojan-horse concept that has

brought us affirmative action and

other liberal abominations.

Creative Class people use the word

often, but not to press any political hot

buttons. Diversity is simply something

they value in all its manifestations.”

Tolerance / Inclusiveness

• Mosaic Index

• Percent of population foreign born

• Immigrants generate growth and are a sign or

regional “openness”

20

Mosaic Index: Where does Thunder Bay rank?

• Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers)

• Peer Average: 8.1%

• Lowest peer score: 2.2% (Trois-Rivieres, QC)

• Highest peer score: 15.0% (Dalton, GA)

•Where does Thunder Bay

rank?–Top 3?

–Bottom 3?

–Middle 5?21

Mosaic Index: Thunder Bay “Middle 5”

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10.3%

2.2%

3.1%

3.4%

4.7%

5.5%

6.9%

10.1%

10.9%

14.6%

15.0%

Trois-Rivières, QC

Battle Creek, MI

Rocky Mount, NC

Bloomington, IL

Sherbrooke , QC

State College, PA

Mount Vernon, WA

Thunder Bay, ON

College Station, TX

Kelowna, BC

Dalton, GA

Mosaic Index (% Pop)Thunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006

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Population Growth

Population Growth

• Percent growth/decline in total population

• Between 2001 and 2006

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Population Growth: Where does Thunder Bay rank?

• Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers)

• Peer Average: 6.1%

• Lowest peer score: 0.0% (Battle Creek, MI)

• Highest peer score: 12.4% (Mount Vernon, WA)

•Where does Thunder Bay

rank?–Top 3?

–Bottom 3?

–Middle 5?25

Population Growth: Thunder Bay “Bottom 3”

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0.0%

0.8%

2.3%

2.9%

3.8%

6.3%

6.4%

7.2%

9.8%

12.0%

12.4%

Battle Creek, MI

Thunder Bay, ON

Rocky Mount, NC

Trois-Rivières, QC

State College, PA

Sherbrooke , QC

College Station, TX

Bloomington, IL

Kelowna, BC

Dalton, GA

Mount Vernon, WA

Population GrowthThunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, (00-05)

Discussion / Summary

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For More Information

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Summary StatisticsPeer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Provincial/State

Average

Total Population, 2006 115,700 150,000 197,000 546,000

GDP (CAD millions) 2006 $5,000 $6,000 $9,000 $29,000

Median Age, 2006 25.7 36.6 43.8 37.5

Overall Cost of Living Index 92.5 104.3 131.4 101.5

Overall PerformanceThunder

Bay, ON

Peer

Ranking

Peer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Provincial/State

Average

Population Growth (00-05) 0.8% 10 0% 5.8% 12.4% 5.7%

Job Growth (00-05) -3.4% 10 -3.6% 4.8% 19.9% 9.3%

GDP per capita, 2006 $43,000 6 $35,500 $45,000 $58,200 $45,000

Change in Average Wage (00-05) -2.4% 8 -11.2% -2.2% 3.7% 0.1%

Creativity Index 0.46 5 0.24 0.44 0.66 N/A

TechnologyThunder

Bay, ON

Peer

Ranking

Peer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Provincial/State

Average

Total Patents, 2005 2 11 2 18 42 517

Patents per 10,000, 2005 0.16 10 0.14 1.17 2.98 2.46

Patent Growth, Short Term (00-05) -3.3% 10 -4.5% 10.8% 56.7% -0.5%

North American High Tech LQ, 2006 0.51 6 0.22 0.58 1.54 0.63

North American Tech Pole Index 0.013 6 0.002 0.020 0.079 0.189

TalentThunder

Bay, ON

Peer

Ranking

Peer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Provincial/State

Average

Creative Class as % of Workforce, 2006 26.9% 4 18.5% 24.9% 29.4% 26.1%

Super Creative Core as % of Workforce, 2006 14.7% 5 5.6% 11.9% 16.3% 11.0%

Pop > 25, Above High School below BA, 2006 58.2% N/A 51.7% 58.2% 65.5% 59.0%

Talent Index (Pop > 25, BA and above), 2006 13.0% 9 12.0% 21.4% 40.2% 21.7%

Pop > 25, Graduate and/or Professional Degree, 2006 3.5% 9 3.4% 7.8% 20.5% 7.5%

Brain Drain/Gain Index, 2006 0.63 6 0.00 0.69 1.28 N/A

ToleranceThunder

Bay, ON

Peer

Ranking

Peer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Provincial/State

Average

Visible Minorities (% Pop), 2006 2.7% 5 0.0% 5.2% 28.1% 11.1%

Mosaic Index (% Pop), 2006 10.3% 4 2.2% 7.9% 15.0% 7.9%

Gay and Lesbian Index, 2006 0.77 5 0.64 0.79 1.03 0.81

Bohemian Index, 2006 0.67 3 0.16 0.46 1.05 0.69

Integration Index, 2006 0.83 6 1 0.76 0.92 N/A

Territorial AssetsThunder

Bay, ON

Peer

Ranking

Peer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Social and Cultural AssetsArts and Cultural Establishments per 10,000, 2006 1.95 3 0.22 1.36 2.22

Resturants and Bars per 1,000, 2006 1.83 7 1.46 1.90 2.40

Student/Teacher Ratio, 2006 14.50 4 13.58 15.83 22.17

Doctor's per 1,000, 2006 0.81 5 0.00 1.13 3.42

Civic AssetsFederal Voter Turnout (%), 2004/2006 62% 5 40% 59% 66%

Voilent and Property Crime per Capita, 2006 0.09 10 0.02 0.06 0.12

Housing and Transportation AssetsPopulation Density (KM2), 2006 48 9 25.34 71.67 160.76

Median Housing Value to Income Ratio, 2005 2.42 1 2.42 3.51 7.14

Drivers per Other Modes, 2006 9.77 3 4.84 28.69 169.98

Thunder Bay, ON123,000

$5,000

41.8

102.8

For More Information

• Richard Florida’s books–“The Rise of the Creative Class”

–“The Flight of the Creative Class”

–“Who’s Your City?”

• martinprosperity.org

• creativeclass.com

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Thank You

Ronnie Sanders

Ronnie.Sanders@rotman.utoronto.ca

Patrick Adler

Patrick.Adler@rotman.utoronto.ca