Bridget mc kenzie museum scenarios 2020
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Museum Scenarios 2020
Bridget McKenzie
Three ways to model futures
1. Normative: desired future built on common ideals 2. Extrapolating: probable future built on trends 3. Scenarios: possible futures built on both ideals and trends
• Understand megatrends (or major driving forces) for your focal issue
• Distinguish between trends and megatrends.
• Understand the critical uncertainties for your issue
• Distinguish between gamechangers and Black Swans
Driving Forces and Uncertainties
To simplify it…
Gamechangers Trends
Black Swans Megatrends
Driving forces
Critical uncertainties
Scale, complexity and power
Trends affecting museums by 2020
For example:• Public resources as open commons• Traditional education challenged by open
and informal learning • Pressure for museums to have ever more
social impact• More democratic participation
Event at Santa Cruz Museum of Art & History
Megatrends affecting museums
• Unemployment in Europe • Austerity measures: cuts to museumsBUT
• Growth in cultural tourism• Rapid advances in technology (especially
‘hypernature’ – enhancing bioservices)
Gamechangers affecting museumsFor example, • 3D printing• Alternative currency• Wearable tech• Crowds (positive
but also a shadow side)
Black Swans affecting museums
…and everyone
• Global warming: two orders of magnitude greater in C21 than in last Ice Age; CO2 now at 400pmm
• Ecocide: biodiversity losses • Resource insecurity• Social awareness of injustice causing unrest
Scenarios need constant feeding
United Micro-kingdoms
Europe in 2020?
Europe2020EU’s ‘Smart, Sustainable, Inclusive’ goals to tackle the crisis by 2020:• 75% employment• 20% less GHG emissions, 20% more efficient• 40% completing higher education• Lift 20 million out of poverty
Can you use any of this to build your scenarios?
Tech in 2020?
Tech visions 2020‘Internet of Things in 2020’ is one of several. IoT2020: megatrends for this focal issue: • Data deluge: exacerbated by IoT• Energy shortage: devices must harvest own• Miniaturisation• Autonomic resources: self managing &
healing
Brain control interface
Museums2020• Museum Association project• Bold vision for future of UK museums • Help museums think long term• Doesn’t aim to predict future• Questioning the sector & public on role &
impact of museums on individuals, society & environment
How can we map future museum scenarios?
People’s museum
Green museum
Attraction museum
Unmuseum
DisruptionTradition
Mission: diversity and wellbeing
Mission: wealth creation
Social justice
Ecotopia
Growth is god
Techno-utopia
Without radical disruption…
People’s heritage destroyed through conflict.Syria now, what next?
Attraction museum with no visitors?
Green Museum: Biomuseo in Panama
Green Museums 2020?
• Using and promoting alternative currencies, or gifting • Constituted as community co-
operatives• Modelling the ‘circular economy’ • Education to develop future skills
such as bioempathy
Unmuseum: Museum as base or catalyst
Unmuseums 2020?• Unlimited by walls or traditions• Focus on what people will pay for• Partnerships generate profit for creative
industries?• 3D printing: museums in your home? • FabLab: tap museum knowledge of
materials and context?• Neuroscience and immersive memory
narratives: as therapy?
Ideal: The Disruptive Museum?Mix the Green and the Unmuseum?
A movement of disruptive museums?
• Global commons to conserve cultural and natural diversity, built on heritage
• Reflect on things: Promote wellbeing beyond consumption of things
• Act as hubs for sustainable communities: showcase and commission ecosocial innovation
• Contemporary art and creative tech as catalysts for change
Think the unthink-able
Talk to me on @bridgetmckthelearningplanet.wordpress.comwww.flowassociates.com
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