Bering Sea Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catch Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research First-order Knowledge Base:

Bering Sea

•Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catch•Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research•First-order Knowledge Base: reviews and special issues•Considerable management and support activities•Not generally overfished: Dynamic ecosystem and climate change

Climate Patterns

1977-1988 (PNA+/PDO) 1989-1995 (AO+) 2000-2005 (Arctic Warm) Pacific North American Arctic Oscillation

Overland and Wang (2005)

2006

Surface Air Temperature Anomalies

Total Biomass of EBS Pollock

0

3

6

9

12

15

1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004year

Bio

ma

ss

in m

illio

n t

on

s

Time lags

Hunt et al. (2002)

Oscillating Control Hypothesis

Bering Indicators

Multivariate look at indicators

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

1

2

3S

um

of

RS

I va

lue

s a) C lim ate Indices PD O w, A IPN A, PDO sN P, EPw, SA I, M EI

EPss, N PPD O w,VI, AOW P

VI, EPssPD O s, EPwM EI

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

1

2

3

Su

m o

f R

SI

valu

es

b) Physical IndicesTsfc, SATwBSPIw , SWIC I, W M m

SATw, TsfcBSPIw , IC I BSPIw

W Sna

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

1

2

3

4

Su

m o

f R

SI

valu

es

c) B io logical Indices

Yellow fin So lePacific Perch

Fur sealTurbotR ock SoleSalm onA laska P laceYellow fin So lePacific Perch

Fla thead SoleEchinoderm sSnow crabSalm onJellyfishRock Sole

Fur SealSnow CrabJellyfishPacific CodTurbot

Dendogram of Bering Sea stocks based on hierarchical cluster analysis of pairwise

Manhatten distances among standardized recruitment

From Franz Mueter & Bern Megrey

Charge to Workshop

While understanding the limits from complexity, the ongoing efforts by NMFS and others, and the need for comprehensive reviews (300+ pages),

How do we summarized the state of the Bering Sea that will provide sensitive indicators (<10) of change?