Bering Sea •Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catc •Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research •First-order Knowledge Base: reviews and special issues •Considerable management and support activities •Not generally overfished: Dynamic ecosystem and climate ch
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Bering Sea Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catch Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research First-order Knowledge Base:
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Bering Sea
•Important: Large Ecosystem, Pollock $2 B, 40 % of US catch•Considerable data sources: Annual surveys and research•First-order Knowledge Base: reviews and special issues•Considerable management and support activities•Not generally overfished: Dynamic ecosystem and climate change
Climate Patterns
1977-1988 (PNA+/PDO) 1989-1995 (AO+) 2000-2005 (Arctic Warm) Pacific North American Arctic Oscillation
Overland and Wang (2005)
2006
Surface Air Temperature Anomalies
Total Biomass of EBS Pollock
0
3
6
9
12
15
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004year
Bio
ma
ss
in m
illio
n t
on
s
Time lags
Hunt et al. (2002)
Oscillating Control Hypothesis
Bering Indicators
Multivariate look at indicators
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
1
2
3S
um
of
RS
I va
lue
s a) C lim ate Indices PD O w, A IPN A, PDO sN P, EPw, SA I, M EI
EPss, N PPD O w,VI, AOW P
VI, EPssPD O s, EPwM EI
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
1
2
3
Su
m o
f R
SI
valu
es
b) Physical IndicesTsfc, SATwBSPIw , SWIC I, W M m
SATw, TsfcBSPIw , IC I BSPIw
W Sna
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
1
2
3
4
Su
m o
f R
SI
valu
es
c) B io logical Indices
Yellow fin So lePacific Perch
Fur sealTurbotR ock SoleSalm onA laska P laceYellow fin So lePacific Perch
Fla thead SoleEchinoderm sSnow crabSalm onJellyfishRock Sole
Fur SealSnow CrabJellyfishPacific CodTurbot
Dendogram of Bering Sea stocks based on hierarchical cluster analysis of pairwise
Manhatten distances among standardized recruitment
From Franz Mueter & Bern Megrey
Charge to Workshop
While understanding the limits from complexity, the ongoing efforts by NMFS and others, and the need for comprehensive reviews (300+ pages),
How do we summarized the state of the Bering Sea that will provide sensitive indicators (<10) of change?