Assessment of NDCs and implemented policies - EU - COP 23
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European Union
National emissions projections and decarbonisation indicators under
NDCs and implemented policies
Paola Yanguas-Parra (Climate Analytics)
8 November 2017
www.climateactiontracker.org
European Union – Insufficient
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NDC insufficient: leading to 2-3°C warming by 2100, if all countries were to follow the EU’s approach. Policies in line with NDC but much stronger emissions
reductions needed to achieve long-term target
European Union – Insufficient
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How to increase the ambition of EU´s NDC and put policies on track to long-term target?
EU – Emissions intensity of electricity generation
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-36% reduction below 1990 and -21% below 2000
in 2014
-36% reduction below 2014 in 2030
EU – coal share
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-38%decrease 1990- 2014
EU – coal share member states
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For some members states (e.g. Germany), coal still represents a third of their energy mix.
EU – coal power generation
25% of gross electricity generation
17% of total GHG
emissions
760Mt CO2 yearly
Coal share is much higher in electricity mix, with Germany and Poland concentrating 50% of the installed capacity.
293 coal power plants,, with combined installed
capacity of 153 GW.
Source: Climate Analytics (2016). Implications of the Paris Agreement for Coal Use in the Power Sector
EU – coal phase-out plans
Coal needs to be phased out by 2030 in the EU to be consistent with the Paris Agreement.
Many member states are already implementing coal phase-out by this year and civil society is mobilizing to increase ambition.
Sources: Climate Analytics (2016). Implications of the Paris Agreement for Coal Use in the Power Sector
Beyond Coal (2017). https://beyond-coal.eu/
Finland:2030
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania:No coal
UK:2025
France:2023
NL:2030
Italy:2025
Portugal:2030
Berlin:2030
Munich:2020
BL:2016
Sweden:2022
Norway:No coal
Conclusions
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• NDC insufficient: leading to 2-3°C warming by 2100, if all countries were to follow the EU’s approach
• How to enhance the level of ambition of the EU NDC?
o Coal needs to be phased out by 2030
o Renewables deployment
o Energy sector fully decarbonised by 2050
o Net zero emissions in the second half of the century
THANK YOU!
EXTRA SLIDES
EU – Emissions intensity of electricity generation
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190% increase 1990- 2014
EU – coal phase-out
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To be in line with the Paris Agreement the EU would need to phase-out coal by 2030.
EU – coal phase-out at the unit level
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