Assessment of NDCs and implemented policies - EU - COP 23

European Union

National emissions projections and decarbonisation indicators under

NDCs and implemented policies

Paola Yanguas-Parra (Climate Analytics)

8 November 2017

www.climateactiontracker.org

European Union – Insufficient


NDC insufficient: leading to 2-3°C warming by 2100, if all countries were to follow the EU’s approach. Policies in line with NDC but much stronger emissions

reductions needed to achieve long-term target

European Union – Insufficient


How to increase the ambition of EU´s NDC and put policies on track to long-term target?

EU – Emissions intensity of electricity generation


-36% reduction below 1990 and -21% below 2000

in 2014

-36% reduction below 2014 in 2030

EU – coal share


-38%decrease 1990- 2014

EU – coal share member states


For some members states (e.g. Germany), coal still represents a third of their energy mix.

EU – coal power generation

25% of gross electricity generation

17% of total GHG

emissions

760Mt CO2 yearly

Coal share is much higher in electricity mix, with Germany and Poland concentrating 50% of the installed capacity.

293 coal power plants,, with combined installed

capacity of 153 GW.

Source: Climate Analytics (2016). Implications of the Paris Agreement for Coal Use in the Power Sector

http://climateanalytics.org/publications/2016/implications-of-the-paris-agreement-for-coal-use-in-the-power-sector.html

EU – coal phase-out plans

Coal needs to be phased out by 2030 in the EU to be consistent with the Paris Agreement.

Many member states are already implementing coal phase-out by this year and civil society is mobilizing to increase ambition.

Sources: Climate Analytics (2016). Implications of the Paris Agreement for Coal Use in the Power Sector

Beyond Coal (2017). https://beyond-coal.eu/

Finland:2030

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania:No coal

UK:2025

France:2023

NL:2030

Italy:2025

Portugal:2030

Berlin:2030

Munich:2020

BL:2016

Sweden:2022

Norway:No coal

http://climateanalytics.org/publications/2016/implications-of-the-paris-agreement-for-coal-use-in-the-power-sector.html

Conclusions


• NDC insufficient: leading to 2-3°C warming by 2100, if all countries were to follow the EU’s approach

• How to enhance the level of ambition of the EU NDC?

o Coal needs to be phased out by 2030

o Renewables deployment

o Energy sector fully decarbonised by 2050

o Net zero emissions in the second half of the century

THANK YOU!

EXTRA SLIDES

EU – Emissions intensity of electricity generation


190% increase 1990- 2014

EU – coal phase-out


To be in line with the Paris Agreement the EU would need to phase-out coal by 2030.

EU – coal phase-out at the unit level


Assessment of NDCs and implemented policies - EU - COP 23

Environment