Analisis Teknikal Saham 2
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TRAINING Technical Analysis
12 Nov 2009
HaryajidHaryajid RamelanRamelan, CFP, CFP®®, RFC, RFC®®, CPRM, CPRM®®, RIFA, RIFA®®
TRAININGTRAININGTECHNICAL ANALISISTECHNICAL ANALISIS
Bagian Pertama1. Introduction (TA)
2. Fundamental Vs TA
3. Dasar Analisa Teknis
4. Theory Dow
5. Three Past of Market
6. Trend & penggunaannya
7. Accumulation, Distribustion & Mark-up
Bagian Kedua8. Support & Resisten & Combine9. Channel10. Bilangan Fibonacci11. Retracement12. One day trading13. Pattern ( Reversal )14. Pattern (Consolidate)
TRAININGTRAININGTECHNICAL ANALISISTECHNICAL ANALISIS
1. Cash Price2. Short Term Interest Rate3. Holding and Storage cost4. Capital Gain/Capital Loss5. Volatility Market6. Market Sentimen7. Composition Index
TRAININGTRAININGTECHNICAL ANALISISTECHNICAL ANALISIS
Beberapa Hal yang perlu diketahuiInvestor:
1. Hindari Greedy
2. Disiplin dalam berinvestasi
3. Kebijakan Investasi
4. Strategi Investasi
5. Kondisi yang mempengaruhi
6. Mengukur dan Evaluasi Kinerja
TRAININGTRAININGTECHNICAL ANALISISTECHNICAL ANALISIS
Awalnya………….TRAININGTRAINING
TECHNICAL ANALISISTECHNICAL ANALISIS
Dana Investasicukup
Rajin mencariinformasi…….
Salah mendeteksisaham….
Akibatnya…….
Bila kita mengenali diri sendiri dan musuh kita, kita tidak akan takut perang.
Bila kita mengenali diri sendiri tetapi tidakmengenali musuh kita, maka kita akan kalahdalam setiap peperangan yang kita menangkan;
dan bila kita tidak mengenal diri sendiri sertamusuh kita, maka kita tidak akan pernahmenang
SUN SZU TEORISUN SZU TEORI
INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION
Technical Analysis hingga kini digunakansebagian orang sebagai salah satutools didalam berinvestasi. Baik pada saham, indeks, komoditimaupun mata uang tertentu. Berbagaiinvestasi pada pasar uang dan pasarmodal tak terelakkan untuk tidakmenggunakan tools tersebut
INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION
• The Market is always right ?• Greedy & Emosi banyak berperan• Kebutuhan data ( Fund / TA )
gambler• Motive Investor
INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION
Analisa teknis merupakan satu tools yang dapat digunakan untuk melihataksi & reaksi dari suatu pasar dandapat juga untuk memprediksikankearah mana pasar akan bergerak.
HOPEFundamental
REALITYTechnical
VS
PrinsipPrinsip DasarDasar AnalisAnalis TeknisTeknis
Kinerja (expektasi) sahamIndustriKondisi Macro & Micro
Historical PricePatternIndicatorTrading System
Long TermShort Term
Introduction Technical Introduction Technical AnalysisAnalysis
• Salah satu tools investasi• Chart ( Historical Price )• Kebutuhan software
Chartist dapat mendeteksi kondisi yang telahterjadi dan tengah terjadi pada saat itu. Sehingga user dapat memprediksikan kemanaarah pergerakkan selanjutnya.
DasarDasar AnalisaAnalisa TeknisTeknis
TA adalah suatu study yang mempercayai adanyasuatu pola berulang yang terjadi dipasar, sertaadanya indikator yang dapat memberikanprediksi kearah mana pergerakkan selanjutnya.
TA sangat tidak mempercayai adanya pergerakkanrandom yang terjadi dipasar. Sebab TA lebihmempercayai adanya pola, trend maupun indicator yang terjadi dipasar, untuk dapatmengidentifikasikan harga berikutnya.
ANALOGY TRENDANALOGY TREND
Analogy Analogy PositifPositif ( Uptrend ) IPO ( Uptrend ) IPO
AnalogiAnalogi NegatifNegatif ( Downtrend ) ( Downtrend ) News/RumorsNews/Rumors
Theory DowTheory Dow
• Market action, repeat themselves, prilaku pasar
• TA tidak percaya pada Random Walk
• Life Cycle
BASIC Technical AnalysisBASIC Technical Analysis
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
5000
10000
15000
x100000
8000850090009500
1000010500110001150012000125001300013500140001450015000155001600016500Hang Seng (14,881.92, 14,897.80, 14,806.96, 14,885.65, +0.08008)
BASIC Technical Analysis
analisa teknis mengkompiling berbagaiinformasi yang ada dan tertuang pada chart
BASIC Technical AnalysisBASIC Technical Analysis
1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
10000200003000040000
x10000010000200003000040000
x100000
Volume (0.00000)
200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900950
10001050110011501200
200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900950
10001050110011501200
UU
U U U
T TT
T
T T
UU
U T
T
U
TT U
IHSG (1,095, 1,100, 1,092, 1,100)
Starting PointStarting Point
• Komponen Chart• Historical Harga & Volume
• Type Chart Line chart
Bar Chart
Point and Figure
Candle chart
1 7August
14 22 28 4 11September
18 25 2 9October
16 30 6November
13 20 27 4D
7500760077007800790080008100820083008400850086008700880089009000910092009300940095009600970098009900TLKM (9,450.00, 9,450.00, 9,300.00, 9,350.00, -100.000)
Type ChartType ChartLine ChartLine Chart
a.
b.
926 42006
16 23 30 6 13February
20 27 6March
13 2027 3 10April
17 24 1May
15 22 29 5June
1219 26 3July
10 182
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500
17000
17500
TYPE CHARTTYPE CHARTBAR CHARTBAR CHART
Close & High
Open
Low
BAR CHARTBAR CHART
d.
c.
Type ChartType ChartPoint & Point & FigurFigur ChartChart
Point & Point & FigurFigur ChartChart
f.
e.
Type ChartType ChartPoint & Point & FigurFigur ChartChart
f.
1 7August
14 22 28 4 11September
18 25 2 9October
16 30 6November
13 20 27 4D
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
AALI (0.0, 10,450.00, 10,300.00, 10,300.00, -150.000)
Type ChartType ChartCandlestick ChartCandlestick Chart
Candlestick ChartCandlestick Chart
h.g.
WHICH CHART TO USE ?
Type ChartType ChartCandlestick ChartCandlestick Chart
Time ChoiceTime Choice
10h
16 23 30 6April
13 20 27 4May
11 18 25 1June
8 15 22 29 6July
13 21 27 3 10August
18 24 31 7 14September
28 5 12October
19 26 2 9November
16 23
5000
10000
x1000
5000
10000
x1000
900010000110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000200002100022000230002400025000260002700028000290003000031000320003300034000350003600037000
900010000110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000200002100022000230002400025000260002700028000290003000031000320003300034000350003600037000ASII (30,450.00, 31,650.00, 30,100.00, 31,600.00, +1,250.00), Parabolic SAR (32,691.50)
Time ChoiceTime ChoiceDaily ChartDaily Chart
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010
5000
10000
x10000
5000
10000
x10000
50006000700080009000
10000110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000200002100022000230002400025000260002700028000290003000031000320003300034000350003600037000
50006000700080009000
10000110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000200002100022000230002400025000260002700028000290003000031000320003300034000350003600037000ASII (30,450.00, 31,650.00, 30,100.00, 31,600.00, +1,250.00), Parabolic SAR (34,975.28)
Time ChoiceTime ChoiceWeekly ChartWeekly Chart
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000
x10000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000
x10000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
ASII (30,500.00, 31,650.00, 29,750.00, 31,600.00, +300.000), Parabolic SAR (15,808.21)
Time ChoiceTime ChoiceMonthly ChartMonthly Chart
Three Phases of MarketThree Phases of Market
• Congestion ( Titikkeseimbangan / Ekuilibrium )
• Trending (Uptrend / Downtrend)
• Random
Three Phases of MarketThree Phases of Market
Basic Principle Basic Principle –– The Dow TheoryThe Dow Theory
1. The Average Discount Everything
2. There are Three trend in the market, namely, primary trend, secondary reason & minor trends.
3.Primary Uptrends usualy have three up moves
4.Primary Downtrends ussualy have three down moves
5.To signal a bull or bear trend, the two averages must confirm each other
6.Only Closing Price are used
7. A trend remain effective untuil a reversal has been signaled by both average
Theory Dow & Theory Dow & TrendingTrending
• Primary Trend 1thn – 3thn
• Intermediate Trend 6 bln –1thn
• Short (minor) Trend 5hr – 6bln
TrendingTrending
AkumulasiAkumulasi, Mark, Mark--UpUpDistribusiDistribusi
Primary Trend
Intermediate trend Minor trend
Theory Dow & Theory Dow & Trending (Volatility)Trending (Volatility)
U P T R E N D S ID E W A Y S D O W N T R E N D
H ig h v o la t i l i ty H ig h v o la t i l i tyH ig h v o la t i l i ty
L o w v o la t i l i ty L o w v o la t i l i t yL o w v o la t i l i t y
Theory Dow & Theory Dow & TrendingTrending
Oct Nov Dec 2008 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
50006000700080009000
10000110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000200002100022000230002400025000260002700028000290003000031000320003300034000350003600037000
50006000700080009000
10000110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000200002100022000230002400025000260002700028000290003000031000320003300034000350003600037000
^
_
`
a
b
1. PRIMARY TREND2. INTERMEDIATE TREND3. MINOR TREND
ASII (30,450.00, 31,650.00, 30,100.00, 31,600.00, +1,250.00)
Theory Dow & Theory Dow & TrendingTrending
BUMI Uptrend & BUMI Uptrend & DowntrendDowntrend
Theory Dow & Theory Dow & TrendingTrending
ary March April May June July August September October November
50001000015000200002500030000
x100000
15000
15500
16000
16500
17000
17500
18000
18500
19000
Hang Seng Index (18,889.92, 18,989.51, 18,759.34, 18,878.42, +9.88086)
Theory Dow & Theory Dow & TrendingTrending
Accumulation &Accumulation &DistributionDistribution
Trend linesTrend lines
Garis trend umumnya dibentuk pada closing price
Uptrend Downtrend
Trend linesTrend lines
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2005 Mar A
50000
x1000
Volume (14,260,000)
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
N
Uptrend
Downtrend
Uptrend
ISAT (5,200, 5,250, 4,950, 4,950)
Trend linesTrend lines
AnalisaAnalisa SubyektifSubyektif
• Kemampuan user ( membaca chart )
• Bagian dari Analisa Klasik
• Masing – masing bisa berbedapenafsiran maupun tools yang digunakan.
Support & Support & ResistenResisten
• Melihat high level / Low Level.
• Menandai adanya minat beli/jual
• Closing Price ( Range tertentu )
• Historical Data semakin pjg(Valid)
Horizontal Support Horizontal Support and and ResistenResisten LineLine
2007 Nov Dec 2008 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
5000
10000
15000
x10000
Volume (11,219,000)
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000TLKM (8,700.00, 8,700.00, 8,600.00, 8,650.00, -50.0000)
PerubahanPerubahan Support Support ––ResistenResisten –– SupportSupport
Support Support –– ResistenResistenDibentukDibentuk drdr Trend LineTrend Line
Support Support –– ResistenResisten& Trend Line& Trend Line
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
500
1000
1500
500
1000
1500
COMBINASI SUPPORT LINE & RESISTEN& TREND LINES
^
_`
a
bN
Support Support –– ResistenResisten
1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
Resisten
Resisten
Resisten
Resisten
Resisten
Support
Support
Support
Support
Support
Support
R
IHSG (1,148, 1,160, 1,146, 1,158)
ContohContoh Support Support ––ResistenResisten & Channel& Channel
KombinasiKombinasiSupSup--ResRes dengandengan ChannelChannel
Channel LinesChannel Lines
Adanya trend dari saham yang tengah bergerak naik ataupunturun, bisa dijadikan level support dan resisten. Trend demikian biasa dikenaldengar Channel Line
Bentuk channel sering terjadi, dan dimanfaatkanoleh user untuk trading jangka pendek
Channel LinesChannel Lines
Channel LinesChannel Lines
Channel LineChannel LinePadaPada SahamSaham PGASPGAS
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2006 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000120001300014000PGAS (11,000.00, 11,150.00, 10,950.00, 10,950.00, -50.0000)
Reversal TrendReversal Trend
Pola reversal dapatdiidentifikasikan
dengan garis trend (naik/turun), baik
jk pendek, menengah /
panjang dan dapatdilihat dari garismoving averages.
Reversal TrendReversal TrendPadaPada NikkeiNikkei
September November December 2006 February March April May June July A
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500
17000
17500
18000
18500
^ _
Reversal TrendReversal Trend
August September October November December2003 February March April May
14001450150015501600165017001750180018501900195020002050210021502200225023002350240024502500255026002650
[SELL
NREVERSAL or CONTINUEBBCA (2,525, 2,550, 2,500, 2,525)
Reversal TrendReversal Trend
Reversal TrendReversal TrendSupSup--ResRes, Trend, MA, Trend, MA
Support
Resisten
ANALISA DGN ANALISA DGN PIVOT POINTPIVOT POINT
Analisa ini digunakan untuk trading jangka pendek dandibantu support & resisten harian yang diformulasikan.
•Pivot point memiliki dua buah support dan dua buah resisten•Pivot point digunakan sebagian besar untuk jangka pendek.•Pivot point mampu melihat kadar penguatan atau penurunandengan bantuan kedua support dan resisten.•Pivot point dapat dikombinasikan dengan penggunaan MA.•Mengkombinasikan pivot point dengan volume dianjurkan.
Beberapa hal yang perlu diketahui dari pivot point
Resisten 2
Resisten 1
Support 2
Support 1
Pivot Point
Formula pada pivot point adalah
1. Pivot Point = (H1+L1+C1)/3 Resisten :
2. R1= ( 2xP ) – L1 3. R2= P + ( H1 – L1 )
Support
• S1 = ( 2 x P ) – H1 • S2 = P – (H1 – L1)
P = Pivot pointH1 = high previusL1 = Low PreviusC1 = Close Previus
Dimana :
ANALISA DGN ANALISA DGN PIVOT POINTPIVOT POINT
3100
3200
3300
3400
3500
3600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Pivot pointS IS IIR 1R 2
ANALISA DGN ANALISA DGN PIVOT POINTPIVOT POINT
Date Open High Low Close Pivot point S I S II R 1 R 2
3/4/2003 3575 3575 3475 3475 3/5/2003 3450 3475 3375 3400 3,508.3 3,441.7 3,408.3 3,541.7 3,608.3 3/6/2003 3400 3425 3375 3425 3,416.7 3,358.3 3,316.7 3,458.3 3,516.7 3/7/2003 3400 3425 3350 3375 3,408.3 3,391.7 3,358.3 3,441.7 3,458.3
3/10/2003 3375 3375 3250 3250 3,383.3 3,341.7 3,308.3 3,416.7 3,458.3 3/11/2003 3225 3225 3150 3225 3,291.7 3,208.3 3,166.7 3,333.3 3,416.7 3/12/2003 3250 3425 3250 3400 3,200.0 3,175.0 3,125.0 3,250.0 3,275.0 3/13/2003 3400 3400 3275 3325 3,358.3 3,291.7 3,183.3 3,466.7 3,533.3
DATA PADA PIVOT POINTDATA PADA PIVOT POINT
ANALISA DGN ANALISA DGN PIVOT POINTPIVOT POINT
2700
3700
4700
3/4/
2003
3/18
/200
3
4/1/
2003
4/15
/200
3
4/29
/200
3
C losePivot pointS IS IIR 1R 2
ANALISA DGN ANALISA DGN PIVOT POINTPIVOT POINT
Fibonacci Fibonacci
Seperti : 1 + 2 = 3 2 + 3 = 5 3 + 5 = 85 + 8 =138 + 13=21, Sehingga kalau dilihat : 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,…dst
Fibonacci merupakan angka unik dan dalamTA dijadikan landasan untuk melihat titikbalik, seperti Fibonacci Retracement & Fibonaci Fan Lines
Formula Fibonaci ini banyakdipergunakan dalam
perhitungan TA sepertiFibonacci Retracement dan
Elliot Wave
RetracementRetracement LevelLevel
Retracement Level adalah
Metode atau tools yang dapatmengindikasikan titik balikpada suatu saham pada trend naik / turun
BASIC Technical BASIC Technical AnalysisAnalysis
•Fibonacci Fan Lines•Fibonacci Retracement•Speed Resisten Line.
Ada 3 bentuk retracement
Fibonacci Fan LinesFibonacci Fan Lines
50 %38 %
62 %
rch April May June July August September November 2009 February March April May June July August September Novemb
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
x1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
FIBONACCI FAN LINES PADA UNTR
UNTR (15,100.00, 15,750.00, 14,900.00, 15,700.00, +700.000)
Fibonacci Fibonacci RetracementRetracement
arch April May June July August September November 2009 FebruaryMarch April May June July August September Novem
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
x10005000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
x1000
Volume (5,376,000)
50006000700080009000
10000110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000200002100022000230002400025000260002700028000290003000031000320003300034000350003600037000
50006000700080009000
10000110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000200002100022000230002400025000260002700028000290003000031000320003300034000350003600037000
0.0%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
100.0%
161.8%
0.0%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
100.0%
161.8%
0.0%23.6%38.2%50.0%61.8%
100.0%
161.8%
261.8%
423.6%
FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT
ASII (30,450.00, 31,650.00, 30,100.00, 31,600.00, +1,250.00)
Fibonacci Fibonacci RetracementRetracement
Speed Speed ResistenResisten LineLine
2/3
1/3
arch April May June July August September November 2009 FebruaryMarch April May June July August September Novem
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
x10005000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
x1000
Volume (5,376,000)
50006000700080009000
10000110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000200002100022000230002400025000260002700028000290003000031000320003300034000350003600037000
50006000700080009000
10000110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000200002100022000230002400025000260002700028000290003000031000320003300034000350003600037000
0.0%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
100.0%
161.8%
0.0%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
100.0%
161.8%
0.0%23.6%38.2%50.0%61.8%
100.0%
161.8%
261.8%
423.6%
FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT
ASII (30,450.00, 31,650.00, 30,100.00, 31,600.00, +1,250.00)
Trading PatternTrading Pattern
1. Gapping / Windows 2. Candlestick chart
CHART PATTERNCHART PATTERN
One Day Trading Pattern One Day Trading Pattern ( Gapping )( Gapping )
13 21 27 3August
10 18 24 31 7September
14 28 5October
12 19 26 2November
9 16 23
2150
2200
2250
2300
2350
2400
2450
2500
2550
2600
2650
2700
2750
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
^_
`
ab
c
d
e
f
BUMI (2,350.00, 2,375.00, 2,225.00, 2,300.00, -25.0000)
One Day Trading Pattern One Day Trading Pattern ( Gapping )( Gapping )
27 3August
10 18 24 31September
7 14 28 5October
12 19 26 2November
9
5000
10000
15000
20000
x10000
2550
2600
2650
2700
2750
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
COMMON GAP
COMMON GAP
MEDC (2,675.00, 2,700.00, 2,575.00, 2,625.00, -75.0000)
March6 13 20 27 3
April11 17 24 1
May8 15 22
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
UNTR (5,200.00, 5,350.00, 5,100.00, 5,250.00, +0.0)
One Day Trading Pattern One Day Trading Pattern ( Gapping )( Gapping )
One Day Trading Pattern One Day Trading Pattern ( Gapping )( Gapping )
Ada 4 jenis gap :
• Common Gap
• Breakaway Gap
• Continuation Gap
• Exhaustion Gap
Pengertian dari gap sendiriadalah, adanya perubahanharga pembukaan dalamperiode tertentu dengan
harga penutupan pada hariberikutnya.
One Day Trading Pattern One Day Trading Pattern ( Gapping )( Gapping )
Common GapCommon Gap
27 3August
10 18 24 31September
7 14 28 5October
12 19 26 2November
9
5000
10000
15000
20000
x10000
2550
2600
2650
2700
2750
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
COMMON GAP
COMMON GAP
MEDC (2,675.00, 2,700.00, 2,575.00, 2,625.00, -75.0000)
March6 13 20 27 3
April11 17 24 1
May8 15 22
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
UNTR (5,200.00, 5,350.00, 5,100.00, 5,250.00, +0.0)
Common GapCommon Gap
Breakaway &Breakaway &Continuation GapContinuation Gap
23 30 7October
14 21 28 4November
11 18 25 2 16December
23 22003
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
Continuation Gap
breakaway gapISAT (8,900, 8,950, 8,800, 8,900)
Bearish Breakaway gap
Exhaustion GapExhaustion Gap
ctober November December 2003 February March April May850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800Exhaustion GapAALI (1,575, 1,575, 1,525, 1,550)
Exhaustion GapExhaustion Gap
Day Trading Day Trading (Candle)(Candle)
Day Trading Day Trading (Candle)(Candle)
Day Trading Day Trading (Candle)(Candle)
Doji Star Pattern
Day Trading Day Trading (Candle)(Candle)
Reversal Reversal PatternPattern
• Head and Shoulder
• Inverted Head and Shoulder
• Triple Tops and Triple Bottoms
• Double Tops / Double Bottoms
• Source or Rounding Bottoms / Tops
• V Formation / Spikes
Continuation Continuation PatternPattern
• Triangle
• Flag and Pennant
• Wedges
• Rectangle Formation
Reversal PatternReversal PatternHead and ShoulderHead and Shoulder
LS
h
rS
LS
h
rS
Reversal PatternReversal PatternHead and ShoulderHead and Shoulder
4ay
11 18 25 1June
8 15 22 29July
6 13 21 27 3 10August
18 24 31 7September
14 28 5October
12 19 26 2 9November
16 23
100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000
x1000
Volume (16,841,500)
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
BBRI (7,450.00, 7,500.00, 7,250.00, 7,450.00, +0.0)
mber 2007 February March April May June July August September October Nove
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
HEAD & SHOULDERPADA SAHAM TLKM
U
U
U
TLKM (11,900.00, 12,050.00, 11,550.00, 11,550.00, -350.000)
Reversal PatternReversal PatternHead and ShoulderHead and Shoulder
ber October November December 2006 February March April May June July Au
10000
20000
30000
x100000
10000101001020010300104001050010600107001080010900110001110011200113001140011500116001170011800Indeks Dow Jones (10,937.94, 10,995.73, 10,778.58, 10,868.38, -59.7197)
Reversal PatternReversal PatternHead and ShoulderHead and Shoulder
Reversal PatternReversal PatternHead and ShoulderHead and Shoulder
Reversal PatternReversal PatternHead and ShoulderHead and Shoulder
001 M A M J J A S O N D 2002 M A M J J A S O N D 2003 M A M J J
5000
10000
x10000
5000
10000
x10000
Volume (28,929,500)
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000HMSP (3,475, 3,775, 3,475, 3,550)
Reversal PatternReversal PatternHead and ShoulderHead and Shoulder
Reversal PatternReversal PatternHead and ShoulderHead and Shoulder
Triple tops & BottomsTriple tops & Bottoms
Triple Tops & BottomsTriple Tops & Bottoms
Triple Tops & BottomsTriple Tops & Bottoms
Double BottomsDouble Bottoms
Double BottomsDouble Bottoms
15 22 29July
6 13 21 27 3August
10 18 24 31 7September
14 28 5October
12 19 26 2 9November
16 232500
2550
2600
2650
2700
2750
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
DOUBLE TOPS
^ _
MEDC (2,675.00, 2,700.00, 2,575.00, 2,625.00, -75.0000)
Double BottomsDouble Bottoms
Double Tops & BottomsDouble Tops & Bottoms
Rounding BottomsRounding Bottoms
Rounding BottomsRounding Bottoms
2008 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
x10000
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
ROUNDING TOP PADA PNBN
PNBN (770.000, 770.000, 770.000, 770.000, +0.00)
Rounding BottomsRounding Bottoms
ary April May June July August September November December2006
13200133001340013500136001370013800139001400014100142001430014400145001460014700148001490015000151001520015300154001550015600157001580015900
13200133001340013500136001370013800139001400014100142001430014400145001460014700148001490015000151001520015300154001550015600157001580015900Hang Seng (15,672.39, 15,792.36, 15,670.77, 15,787.97, +68.5996)
Spikes Top / BottomsSpikes Top / Bottoms
Spikes Top / BottomsSpikes Top / Bottoms
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2006 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov D
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000145001500015500
SPIKES PATTERN
ASII (14,700.00, 14,900.00, 14,650.00, 14,700.00, +0.0)
TriangleTriangle
Ascending TriangleAscending Triangle Descending TriangleDescending Triangle
Triangle PatternTriangle Pattern
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec2006Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep OctNov
8000
8500
9000
9500
0000
0500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000450050005500
SYMETRICAL TRIANGLE
ASII (14,700.00, 14,900.00, 14,650.00, 14,700.00, +0.0)
Triangle PatternTriangle Pattern
0 18 24 31September
7 14 28 5October
12 19 26 2November
9 16 235000
10000150002000025000300003500040000450005000055000
x100
19500
20000
20500
21000
21500
22000
22500
23000
23500
24000
24500
TARGET DARI ASCENDING TRIANGLE
AALI (22,000.00, 22,350.00, 21,850.00, 22,200.00, +350.000)
Triangle PatternTriangle Pattern
4ay
11 18 25 1June
8 15 22 29July
6 13 21 27 3 10August
18 24 31 7September
14 28 5October
12 19 26 2 9November
16 23
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
x10000
Volume (21,785,000)950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
SYMETRICAL TRIANGLE PADA ADRO
ADRO (1,550.00, 1,560.00, 1,530.00, 1,540.00, +0.00)
Triangle PatternTriangle Pattern
4ay
11 18 25 1June
8 15 22 29July
6 13 21 27 3 10August
18 24 31 7September
14 28 5October
12 19 26 2 9November
16 23
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
x10000
Volume (21,785,000)950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
DESCENDING TRIANGLE PADA ADRO
ADRO (1,550.00, 1,560.00, 1,530.00, 1,540.00, +0.00)
Descending Descending TriangleTriangle
Descending TriangleDescending Triangle
Descending TriangleDescending Triangle
Descending Descending TriangleTriangle
Descending Descending TriangleTriangle
Flag PatternFlag Pattern
Flag PatternFlag Pattern
Flag PatternFlag Pattern
Flag PatternFlag Pattern
WedgesWedges
Rising WedgesRising Wedges
Rising WedgesRising Wedges
WedgesWedges
WedgesWedges
Rising WedgesRising Wedges
WedgesWedges
August September October November December2003 February March April May2300240025002600270028002900300031003200330034003500360037003800390040004100420043004400450046004700
2300240025002600270028002900300031003200330034003500360037003800390040004100420043004400450046004700TLKM (4,325, 4,350, 4,250, 4,300)
WedgesWedges
October November December 2003 February March April May
14001450150015501600165017001750180018501900195020002050210021502200225023002350240024502500255026002650BBCA (2,525, 2,550, 2,500, 2,525)
WedgesWedges
Rectangle FormationRectangle Formation
Volume AnalysisVolume Analysis
Price Volume Market Action Up Up Bullish Buy Up Down Bearish Sell Down Up Bearish Sell Down Down Bullish Buy
28 4February
11 18 25 4March
11 18 25 1April
8 15
5000
10000
15000
20000
x1000
Volume (12,332,500)
3700
3800390040004100
42004300440045004600470048004900
HMSP (4,450, 4,575, 4,400, 4,525)
Volume AnalysisVolume Analysis
PSIKOLOGIS LEVELPSIKOLOGIS LEVEL
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