Alex Roehrl April 2009

IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency

Nuclear energy and climate change

UNA Conference, London, UK 30 April 2009

R. Alexander RoehrlInternational Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

Swine flu� Yesterday at Vienna airport: young couple quarrelling about the use of mask to protect against swine flue� “Masks are effective...” – “Masks do not protect…”� “Vaccination will be ready too late”. Does this mean we should not try to develop them?� “I do not like masks.” – Is it a love-hate issue? � Observations: � Seemingly opposing statements may both be true (e.g., surgical masks vs. FFP3 filters, and different usage)� Science-based risk versus risk perception� Different risk behaviours, preferences, cultures and norms

� “All eggs in one basket?” Diversification is the answer…� Risk management lessons for energy-climate change debate

Risk management

IPCC SRES long-term stabilizationDoubling of primary energy demand from 2005 to 2050: � EneCO2 expected to increase by +55% (2030) +130% (2050)

Green level must be achieved! � reduce -50 to -80% by 2050

Global climate change challenge

Stabilization scenarios:Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will largely determine future stabilization levels

Source: IPCC AR4

Double challenge: energy and climate

Nuclear power – a love-hate issue?Olkiluoto, Finland Qinshan NPP in Haiyan, China

WAA Wackersdorf, Germany 1986

IAEA approach� “Every country has the right

to introduce nuclear energy, as well as the responsibility to do it right.” (El Baradei, IAEA)� Brochure:

�Neutral sources�Global perspective�Contents: need, supply, concerns and prospects

� http://www.iaea.org/OurWork/ST/NE/Pess/

Need to consider nuclear power� Global energy and climate challenges� Nuclear power has great potential for GHG emissions

reduction:� It has contributed to avoided GHG emissions for decades� It has the largest and lowest cost GHG reduction potential

(Source: IPCC)� Its mitigation contribution can be significant (Source: IEA)

� Other environmental benefits� Security of supply concerns� Nuclear energy applications beyond the power sector

Nuclear power has contributed to lower GHG emissions for decades

Source: IAEA calculations based on IEA data

Global CO2 emissions from electricity generation AND emissions avoided

Nuclear power uses orders of magnitude less land than other energy chains

Source: ENTERGY Nuclear, GENES4/ANP2003, Kyoto

Challenges and concerns� Supplying nuclear power

� Economics of nuclear power getting favourable� Nuclear investment costs increasing, but financing nuclear power investments is feasible� Construction capacity will expand as needed� Sufficient uranium to fuel increasing nuclear power generation

� Concerns about nuclear power:� Radiation risks are low� Nuclear plant safety keeps improving� Waste management and disposal solutions emerging� Proliferation concerns are being addressed� Public acceptance getting more favourable

Radiation risks are lowPublic radiation exposure for average European individual in 2000

1.2

0.50.4

0.30.4

0.0050.002

0.00020

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8 1

1.2

1.4

Radon

Terrestialradiation

Cosmicradiation

Radiation infood

Diagnosticmedicalexams

Atmosphericnuclear test

fall-out

Chernobyl

Nuclearpower

production(excluding

Sources

Radiation exposure in mSv/year

Solid wastes from fuel preparation and plant operation

Compare: roughly 8 million tons CO2 per GWyr/yr for coal power plant!!

Rising expectations for nuclear power?

Countries with operating NPPsCountries with operating NPPs & new NPPs under constructionCountries with operating NPPs but considering phase-out Countries considering a nuclearpower programme

Countries with operating NPPsCountries with operating NPPs & new NPPs under constructionCountries with operating NPPs but considering phase-out Countries considering a nuclearpower programme

Prospects for nuclear power “Rising expectations”

Responsibility to “do it right” -IAEA “milestones” for nuclear power development

1. National position2. Legislative framework3. Nuclear safety4. Regulatory framework5. Human Resource Development6. Safeguards7. Security and physical protection8. Management9. Financing10. Stakeholder involvement11. Emergency planning12. Radiation protection13. Nuclear fuel cycle14. Nuclear waste15. Environmental protection16. Site and supporting facilities17. Industrial involvement18. Procurement19. Electric grid

Conclusion

1. All low carbon technologies need to be considered including nuclear power.

2. Nuclear power is not a panacea, but can be part of the solution.

3. Concerns about nuclear power have been addressed� Rising expectations for nuclear power

especially in developing countries� Responsibility to “do it right”

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