IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency Nuclear energy and climate change UNA Conference, London, UK 30 April 2009 R. Alexander Roehrl International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Mar 27, 2016
IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency
Nuclear energy and climate change
UNA Conference, London, UK 30 April 2009
R. Alexander RoehrlInternational Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Swine flu� Yesterday at Vienna airport: young couple quarrelling about the use of mask to protect against swine flue� “Masks are effective...” – “Masks do not protect…”� “Vaccination will be ready too late”. Does this mean we should not try to develop them?� “I do not like masks.” – Is it a love-hate issue? � Observations: � Seemingly opposing statements may both be true (e.g., surgical masks vs. FFP3 filters, and different usage)� Science-based risk versus risk perception� Different risk behaviours, preferences, cultures and norms
� “All eggs in one basket?” Diversification is the answer…� Risk management lessons for energy-climate change debate
IPCC SRES long-term stabilizationDoubling of primary energy demand from 2005 to 2050: � EneCO2 expected to increase by +55% (2030) +130% (2050)
Green level must be achieved! � reduce -50 to -80% by 2050
Global climate change challenge
Stabilization scenarios:Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will largely determine future stabilization levels
Source: IPCC AR4
Nuclear power – a love-hate issue?Olkiluoto, Finland Qinshan NPP in Haiyan, China
WAA Wackersdorf, Germany 1986
IAEA approach� “Every country has the right
to introduce nuclear energy, as well as the responsibility to do it right.” (El Baradei, IAEA)� Brochure:
�Neutral sources�Global perspective�Contents: need, supply, concerns and prospects
� http://www.iaea.org/OurWork/ST/NE/Pess/
Need to consider nuclear power� Global energy and climate challenges� Nuclear power has great potential for GHG emissions
reduction:� It has contributed to avoided GHG emissions for decades� It has the largest and lowest cost GHG reduction potential
(Source: IPCC)� Its mitigation contribution can be significant (Source: IEA)
� Other environmental benefits� Security of supply concerns� Nuclear energy applications beyond the power sector
Nuclear power has contributed to lower GHG emissions for decades
Source: IAEA calculations based on IEA data
Global CO2 emissions from electricity generation AND emissions avoided
Nuclear power uses orders of magnitude less land than other energy chains
Source: ENTERGY Nuclear, GENES4/ANP2003, Kyoto
Challenges and concerns� Supplying nuclear power
� Economics of nuclear power getting favourable� Nuclear investment costs increasing, but financing nuclear power investments is feasible� Construction capacity will expand as needed� Sufficient uranium to fuel increasing nuclear power generation
� Concerns about nuclear power:� Radiation risks are low� Nuclear plant safety keeps improving� Waste management and disposal solutions emerging� Proliferation concerns are being addressed� Public acceptance getting more favourable
Radiation risks are lowPublic radiation exposure for average European individual in 2000
1.2
0.50.4
0.30.4
0.0050.002
0.00020
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8 1
1.2
1.4
Radon
Terrestialradiation
Cosmicradiation
Radiation infood
Diagnosticmedicalexams
Atmosphericnuclear test
fall-out
Chernobyl
Nuclearpower
production(excluding
Sources
Radiation exposure in mSv/year
Solid wastes from fuel preparation and plant operation
Compare: roughly 8 million tons CO2 per GWyr/yr for coal power plant!!
Rising expectations for nuclear power?
Countries with operating NPPsCountries with operating NPPs & new NPPs under constructionCountries with operating NPPs but considering phase-out Countries considering a nuclearpower programme
Countries with operating NPPsCountries with operating NPPs & new NPPs under constructionCountries with operating NPPs but considering phase-out Countries considering a nuclearpower programme
Responsibility to “do it right” -IAEA “milestones” for nuclear power development
1. National position2. Legislative framework3. Nuclear safety4. Regulatory framework5. Human Resource Development6. Safeguards7. Security and physical protection8. Management9. Financing10. Stakeholder involvement11. Emergency planning12. Radiation protection13. Nuclear fuel cycle14. Nuclear waste15. Environmental protection16. Site and supporting facilities17. Industrial involvement18. Procurement19. Electric grid
Conclusion
1. All low carbon technologies need to be considered including nuclear power.
2. Nuclear power is not a panacea, but can be part of the solution.
3. Concerns about nuclear power have been addressed� Rising expectations for nuclear power
especially in developing countries� Responsibility to “do it right”