Abengoa-FB Side Event – Alberto Garrido, OA-FB/Ceigram, 14th January, 2015 UN Water Conference Zaragoza

“The role of virtual water trade in copingwith world’s water scarcity”

Alberto GarridoCEIGRAM (Research for the Management of Agricultural and Environmental Risks)

Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Spain

Water Observatory, Botin Foundation

2015 UN-Water Annual International Zaragoza Conference. Water andSustainable Development: From Vision to Action. 15-17 January 2015

Side event. The influence of recent technological advances in Spanish andGlobal Water Policy

Main issues

1. Increase of food demand2. Countries’ Water and Land Scarcity3. The Role of Trade to Meet Food Countries Food

Demand4. WTO’s trade regime5. Outlook

1. Increases of food demand

Urbanisation Income growth Changes in food demad Population growthWhich can be met with

Increases of food production Productivity increases Expansion of land and water uses

1. Increases of food demand

Source: UN, World Population Assessment 2014

Source: UN, World Population Assessment 2002

Urbanization to accelerate

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Bill

ion

peo

ple

Urban

Rural

expectedactual

1. Increases of food demand

Source: UN, World Population Assessment 2014

2. Current status of world water resources1. Increases of food demand

2. Countries’ Water and Land Scarcity

Source: Novo et al 2011 (based on Lannerstad and Falkenmark, 2010)

3.The Role of Trade to Meet Food Countries Food Demand

Source: Prakash and Christopher L. Gilbert. Chap. 3., FAO (2010)

Source: Dalin y et al (PNAS, 109:16, 2012)

3.The Role of Trade to Meet Food Countries Food Demand

Food security cannot be achieved without strong globalisation and stable global food systems

We urgently need a strong Global Food and Agriculture Governance

Very little progress of the Doha Round,commenced in Nov 2001 (Bali Agreement)

4.WTO’s trade regime

« No single country solution: Only joint actions »B. MunierMarch 2014, ULYSSES, International Seminar

Focus on yield gaps and intensification (better than expansion)

Focus on Food wasteChange of diets

ButA new Trade Regime (not forthcoming) Bilateralism / Trade blocksFocus on Food Security, Sovereinty and

Independence

5. Outlook

Thank youalberto.garrido@upm.es