9/8 THUR 10:45 | Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program 1

SRES Behavioral Survey and Analysis Statewide Summary

EARL J. BAKERHAZARDS MANAGEMENT GROUP,

INC.

SRES Behavioral Survey and Analysis

BehavioralAnalysis

TransportationAnalysis

ShelterAnalysis

Public Awareness

EmergencyManagement

Policy

SRES Behavioral Survey

Base questionnaire County questions Region questions

Hurricanes Inland flooding Wildfires Hazardous material accidents Nuclear power plant accidents

SRES Behavioral Survey

18,800 Telephone interviews 400 in each coastal county 150 in each non-coastal county

Demographics Constraints to evacuating Perceived vulnerability Intended responses Past responses

Survey Data Reports

SRES Behavioral Survey

Examples

Constraints to evacuating

Obstacles to Evacuation0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

12

88NoYes

Need Help in Order to Evacuate0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9

91NoYes

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

24

46

22

8

Type of Assistance Needed

Other

Both

Special Need

Transportation

Would Need Agency Assistance0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

23

77NoYes

SRES Behavioral Survey

Examples

Perceived vulnerability

Cat 1 Zone Cat 2 Zone Cat 3 Zone Cat 4 Zone Cat 5 Zone Non-surge Non-coastal0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Home Would Flood DangerouslySite Built Homes

Flood in Cat 2 Flood in Cat 3 Flood in Cat 4/5

Cat 1 Zone Cat 2 Zone Cat 3 Zone Cat 4 Zone Cat 5 Zone Non-surge Non-coastal0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Home Would be Unsafe Considering Wind and Water --Site Built

Homes

Unsafe in Cat 2 Unsafe in Cat 3 Unsafe in Cat 4/5

WF AP NC WC TB SW SE TC EC NE

Cat 1 Zone 52 50 49 61 71 68 80 48 56 45

Cat 3 Zone 42 33 13 23 32 29 64 33 58 14

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

Awareness of Being in an Evacuation ZoneCat 1 and 3 Zone Residents by Florida Region

Perc

ent o

f Res

pond

ents

in E

vacu

ation

Zon

e

WF AP NC WC TB SW SE TC EC NE

Cat 1 Zone 11 16 17 21 33 15 58 12 28 18

Cat 3 Zone 21 11 5 7 13 6 13 6 28 3

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

Identified Correct Evacuation ZoneCat 1 and 3 Zones by Florida Region

Perc

ent o

f All

Resp

onde

nts i

n Ev

acua

tion

Zone

SRES Behavioral Survey

Examples

Intended responses

Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5 NS NC0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Would Evacuate in Cat 2, 3, and 4/5 Storms

Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4/5

Evacuation Zone

Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5 NS NC0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Intended Refuge

OtherH/MF/RPS

Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5 NS NC0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Intended Destination

OtherFloridaCountyHood

SRES Behavioral Survey

Examples

Past responses

Actual Response Studies in FloridaPredating the SRES

NE EC TC SF SW TB WC CF NC AP WF

Eloise

Frederic

David

Elena

Kate

Andrew

Erin

Opal

Bertha

Georges

Floyd

Irene

Michelle

Charley

Frances

Ivan

Jeanne

Dennis

Katrina

Wilma

Eloise Frederic Elena 1 Elena 2 Kate Erin Opal Georges Ivan Katrina Dennis0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Evacuation Rates in West Florida, 1975-2005Pe

rcen

t

Cat 1-2 Cat 3-5 Non-surge Non-coastal0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Evacuation in FloydSite-built Homes

Cat 1-2 Cat 2-3 Cat 4-5 NS NC0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Evacuation in DennisSite-built Homes

West FloridaWaltonEscambiaSanta Rosa

A B C D E0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Tampa Bay Evacuation in Charley by Zone

Pe

rce

nt

Charley Frances Ivan Jeanne Wilma

Mobile Homes 41 35 39 33 52

Site Built Homes 16 15 27 13 16

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

Evacuation in 2004 and 2005by Storm

Perc

ent

Characteristicsof Study Area

Study AreaActual

ResponseData

ActualResponse

Studies

GeneralResponse

Model

InitialBehavioralProjections

ModelCalibration

FinalBehavioralProjections

HypotheticalResponse

Studies

Adustments toHypotheticalResponse Patterns

Study AreaHypotheticalResponse

Data

EmergencyManagement

Input

Process for Deriving Hurricane Evacuation Behavioral AssumptionsHazards Management Group, 1992

Characteristicsof Study Area

Study AreaActual

ResponseData

ActualResponse

Studies

GeneralResponse

Model

InitialBehavioralProjections

ModelCalibration

FinalBehavioralProjections

HypotheticalResponse

Studies

Adustments toHypotheticalResponse Patterns

Study AreaHypotheticalResponse

Data

EmergencyManagement

Input

Process for Deriving Hurricane Evacuation Behavioral AssumptionsHazards Management Group, 1992

Characteristicsof Study Area

Study AreaActual

ResponseData

ActualResponse

Studies

GeneralResponse

Model

InitialBehavioralProjections

ModelCalibration

FinalBehavioralProjections

HypotheticalResponse

Studies

Adustments toHypotheticalResponse Patterns

Study AreaHypotheticalResponse

Data

EmergencyManagement

Input

Process for Deriving Hurricane Evacuation Behavioral AssumptionsHazards Management Group, 1992

Evacuation

EvacuationTiming

Type ofRefuge

Locationof Refuge

Risk Area

Actions byOfficials

StormCharacteristics

Appeals/Offersfrom Others

EvacuationCosts

Availabilityof Options

Income

PerceivedSafety of

Residence

Length of Resdience

Time ofDay

Age Race

General Response Model

Housing

Characteristicsof Study Area

Study AreaActual

ResponseData

ActualResponse

Studies

GeneralResponse

Model

InitialBehavioralProjections

ModelCalibration

FinalBehavioralProjections

HypotheticalResponse

Studies

Adustments toHypotheticalResponse Patterns

Study AreaHypotheticalResponse

Data

EmergencyManagement

Input

Process for Deriving Hurricane Evacuation Behavioral AssumptionsHazards Management Group, 1992

Behavioral Assumptions for Planning

Coastal Counties 6 zones 5 storm categories 2 house types 7 behaviors*

▪ Evacuation participation rate▪ Type of refuge (4)▪ In vs. out of county destinations▪ Vehicle use

Maximum Probable Evacuation Participation Rates Storm Threat Scenario

Site-built Homes Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5

Cat 1 Surge Evacuation Zone 55 65 75 85 95

Cat 2 Surge Evacuation Zone 30 50 70 80 95

Cat 3 Surge Evacuation Zone 20 25 70 80 90

Cat 4 Surge Evacuation Zone 10 15 30 75 85

Cat 5 Surge Evacuation Zone 5 10 15 50 85

Inland of Surge Evacuation Zones 5 5 10 10 20

Evacuation rate indicates the percent of residents who will leave their homes to go someplace safer from each zone in each storm threat scenario. Figures are based on the assumption that officialsorder evacuation for surge evacuation zones corresponding to storm category, plus all mobile homes and manufactured homes. Figures also assume that the actual storm track passes very close to the area being evacuated.

County Public Shelter Use (%) Storm Threat Scenario

Site-built Homes Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5

Cat 1 Surge Evacuation Zone 5 5 5 5 5

Cat 2 Surge Evacuation Zone 5 5 5 5 5

Cat 3 Surge Evacuation Zone 5 5 5 5 5

Cat 4 Surge Evacuation Zone 8 8 8 8 8

Cat 5 Surge Evacuation Zone 8 8 8 8 8

Inland of Surge Evacuation Zones 10 10 10 10 10

Public shelter use rate indicates the percent of evacuees from each zone who will seek refuge in public shelters, in each storm threat scenario.

County Out-of-county Trips (%) Storm Threat Scenario

Site-built Homes Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5

Cat 1 Surge Evacuation Zone 60 60 60 65 65

Cat 2 Surge Evacuation Zone 50 50 50 55 60

Cat 3 Surge Evacuation Zone 50 50 50 55 60

Cat 4 Surge Evacuation Zone 60 60 60 65 65

Cat 5 Surge Evacuation Zone 60 60 60 65 65

Inland of Surge Evacuation Zones 60 60 60 65 65

Out-of-county trip rate indicates the percent of evacuees from each zone who will seek refuge outside their own county of residence.

Vehicle Use

Vehicles Available 1.86 Vehicles to be Used 1.34 Percent of Available 72%

Trailers 11%

No Cars Available 3.1%

Hazards other than HurricanesFreshwater Flooding Wildfire

Hazardous Materials

Nuclear Power Plant

Might be Affected 17 35 16 39

Would Evacuate if Told

75 88 90 88

Would Go to Public Shelter

10 10 8 5

Evacuated in Past 1.9 2.5 .5

Shelter in Place if Told

80 73

Within 10 Mile EPZ 26

Has Brochure 38

SRES Behavioral Survey and Analysis

EARL J. BAKERHAZARDS MANAGEMENT GROUP, INC.

HAZGROUP@COMCAST.NET850-893-8993