SRES Behavioral Survey and Analysis Statewide Summary EARL J. BAKER HAZARDS MANAGEMENT GROUP, INC.
9/8 THUR 10:45 | Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program 1
May 27, 2015
Earl J. Baker
With an updated Evacuation Study for each of the 11 regions, Florida has one of the only statewide evacuation studies in the Nation. This session will educate participants on its fundamentals,
including HOW and WHY it was created and its implementation across a variety of planning disciplines. Explanations of the major components of the Evacuation Study, including its complex
evacuation transportation models, statewide coordination, behavioral surveys, and associated behavioral assumptions and advanced GIS modeling tools. Planners will gain a better understanding of the purpose, data and methodology of the Studies and how to implement its findings in their planning documents.
With an updated Evacuation Study for each of the 11 regions, Florida has one of the only statewide evacuation studies in the Nation. This session will educate participants on its fundamentals,
including HOW and WHY it was created and its implementation across a variety of planning disciplines. Explanations of the major components of the Evacuation Study, including its complex
evacuation transportation models, statewide coordination, behavioral surveys, and associated behavioral assumptions and advanced GIS modeling tools. Planners will gain a better understanding of the purpose, data and methodology of the Studies and how to implement its findings in their planning documents.
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SRES Behavioral Survey and Analysis Statewide Summary
EARL J. BAKERHAZARDS MANAGEMENT GROUP,
INC.
SRES Behavioral Survey and Analysis
BehavioralAnalysis
TransportationAnalysis
ShelterAnalysis
Public Awareness
EmergencyManagement
Policy
SRES Behavioral Survey
Base questionnaire County questions Region questions
Hurricanes Inland flooding Wildfires Hazardous material accidents Nuclear power plant accidents
SRES Behavioral Survey
18,800 Telephone interviews 400 in each coastal county 150 in each non-coastal county
Demographics Constraints to evacuating Perceived vulnerability Intended responses Past responses
Survey Data Reports
SRES Behavioral Survey
Examples
Constraints to evacuating
Obstacles to Evacuation0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
12
88NoYes
Need Help in Order to Evacuate0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
9
91NoYes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
24
46
22
8
Type of Assistance Needed
Other
Both
Special Need
Transportation
Would Need Agency Assistance0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
23
77NoYes
SRES Behavioral Survey
Examples
Perceived vulnerability
Cat 1 Zone Cat 2 Zone Cat 3 Zone Cat 4 Zone Cat 5 Zone Non-surge Non-coastal0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Home Would Flood DangerouslySite Built Homes
Flood in Cat 2 Flood in Cat 3 Flood in Cat 4/5
Cat 1 Zone Cat 2 Zone Cat 3 Zone Cat 4 Zone Cat 5 Zone Non-surge Non-coastal0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Home Would be Unsafe Considering Wind and Water --Site Built
Homes
Unsafe in Cat 2 Unsafe in Cat 3 Unsafe in Cat 4/5
WF AP NC WC TB SW SE TC EC NE
Cat 1 Zone 52 50 49 61 71 68 80 48 56 45
Cat 3 Zone 42 33 13 23 32 29 64 33 58 14
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Awareness of Being in an Evacuation ZoneCat 1 and 3 Zone Residents by Florida Region
Perc
ent o
f Res
pond
ents
in E
vacu
ation
Zon
e
WF AP NC WC TB SW SE TC EC NE
Cat 1 Zone 11 16 17 21 33 15 58 12 28 18
Cat 3 Zone 21 11 5 7 13 6 13 6 28 3
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Identified Correct Evacuation ZoneCat 1 and 3 Zones by Florida Region
Perc
ent o
f All
Resp
onde
nts i
n Ev
acua
tion
Zone
SRES Behavioral Survey
Examples
Intended responses
Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5 NS NC0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Would Evacuate in Cat 2, 3, and 4/5 Storms
Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4/5
Evacuation Zone
Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5 NS NC0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Intended Refuge
OtherH/MF/RPS
Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5 NS NC0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Intended Destination
OtherFloridaCountyHood
SRES Behavioral Survey
Examples
Past responses
Actual Response Studies in FloridaPredating the SRES
NE EC TC SF SW TB WC CF NC AP WF
Eloise
Frederic
David
Elena
Kate
Andrew
Erin
Opal
Bertha
Georges
Floyd
Irene
Michelle
Charley
Frances
Ivan
Jeanne
Dennis
Katrina
Wilma
Eloise Frederic Elena 1 Elena 2 Kate Erin Opal Georges Ivan Katrina Dennis0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Evacuation Rates in West Florida, 1975-2005Pe
rcen
t
Cat 1-2 Cat 3-5 Non-surge Non-coastal0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Evacuation in FloydSite-built Homes
Cat 1-2 Cat 2-3 Cat 4-5 NS NC0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Evacuation in DennisSite-built Homes
West FloridaWaltonEscambiaSanta Rosa
A B C D E0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Tampa Bay Evacuation in Charley by Zone
Pe
rce
nt
Charley Frances Ivan Jeanne Wilma
Mobile Homes 41 35 39 33 52
Site Built Homes 16 15 27 13 16
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
Evacuation in 2004 and 2005by Storm
Perc
ent
Characteristicsof Study Area
Study AreaActual
ResponseData
ActualResponse
Studies
GeneralResponse
Model
InitialBehavioralProjections
ModelCalibration
FinalBehavioralProjections
HypotheticalResponse
Studies
Adustments toHypotheticalResponse Patterns
Study AreaHypotheticalResponse
Data
EmergencyManagement
Input
Process for Deriving Hurricane Evacuation Behavioral AssumptionsHazards Management Group, 1992
Characteristicsof Study Area
Study AreaActual
ResponseData
ActualResponse
Studies
GeneralResponse
Model
InitialBehavioralProjections
ModelCalibration
FinalBehavioralProjections
HypotheticalResponse
Studies
Adustments toHypotheticalResponse Patterns
Study AreaHypotheticalResponse
Data
EmergencyManagement
Input
Process for Deriving Hurricane Evacuation Behavioral AssumptionsHazards Management Group, 1992
Characteristicsof Study Area
Study AreaActual
ResponseData
ActualResponse
Studies
GeneralResponse
Model
InitialBehavioralProjections
ModelCalibration
FinalBehavioralProjections
HypotheticalResponse
Studies
Adustments toHypotheticalResponse Patterns
Study AreaHypotheticalResponse
Data
EmergencyManagement
Input
Process for Deriving Hurricane Evacuation Behavioral AssumptionsHazards Management Group, 1992
Evacuation
EvacuationTiming
Type ofRefuge
Locationof Refuge
Risk Area
Actions byOfficials
StormCharacteristics
Appeals/Offersfrom Others
EvacuationCosts
Availabilityof Options
Income
PerceivedSafety of
Residence
Length of Resdience
Time ofDay
Age Race
General Response Model
Housing
Characteristicsof Study Area
Study AreaActual
ResponseData
ActualResponse
Studies
GeneralResponse
Model
InitialBehavioralProjections
ModelCalibration
FinalBehavioralProjections
HypotheticalResponse
Studies
Adustments toHypotheticalResponse Patterns
Study AreaHypotheticalResponse
Data
EmergencyManagement
Input
Process for Deriving Hurricane Evacuation Behavioral AssumptionsHazards Management Group, 1992
Behavioral Assumptions for Planning
Coastal Counties 6 zones 5 storm categories 2 house types 7 behaviors*
▪ Evacuation participation rate▪ Type of refuge (4)▪ In vs. out of county destinations▪ Vehicle use
Maximum Probable Evacuation Participation Rates Storm Threat Scenario
Site-built Homes Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5
Cat 1 Surge Evacuation Zone 55 65 75 85 95
Cat 2 Surge Evacuation Zone 30 50 70 80 95
Cat 3 Surge Evacuation Zone 20 25 70 80 90
Cat 4 Surge Evacuation Zone 10 15 30 75 85
Cat 5 Surge Evacuation Zone 5 10 15 50 85
Inland of Surge Evacuation Zones 5 5 10 10 20
Evacuation rate indicates the percent of residents who will leave their homes to go someplace safer from each zone in each storm threat scenario. Figures are based on the assumption that officialsorder evacuation for surge evacuation zones corresponding to storm category, plus all mobile homes and manufactured homes. Figures also assume that the actual storm track passes very close to the area being evacuated.
County Public Shelter Use (%) Storm Threat Scenario
Site-built Homes Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5
Cat 1 Surge Evacuation Zone 5 5 5 5 5
Cat 2 Surge Evacuation Zone 5 5 5 5 5
Cat 3 Surge Evacuation Zone 5 5 5 5 5
Cat 4 Surge Evacuation Zone 8 8 8 8 8
Cat 5 Surge Evacuation Zone 8 8 8 8 8
Inland of Surge Evacuation Zones 10 10 10 10 10
Public shelter use rate indicates the percent of evacuees from each zone who will seek refuge in public shelters, in each storm threat scenario.
County Out-of-county Trips (%) Storm Threat Scenario
Site-built Homes Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5
Cat 1 Surge Evacuation Zone 60 60 60 65 65
Cat 2 Surge Evacuation Zone 50 50 50 55 60
Cat 3 Surge Evacuation Zone 50 50 50 55 60
Cat 4 Surge Evacuation Zone 60 60 60 65 65
Cat 5 Surge Evacuation Zone 60 60 60 65 65
Inland of Surge Evacuation Zones 60 60 60 65 65
Out-of-county trip rate indicates the percent of evacuees from each zone who will seek refuge outside their own county of residence.
Vehicle Use
Vehicles Available 1.86 Vehicles to be Used 1.34 Percent of Available 72%
Trailers 11%
No Cars Available 3.1%
Hazards other than HurricanesFreshwater Flooding Wildfire
Hazardous Materials
Nuclear Power Plant
Might be Affected 17 35 16 39
Would Evacuate if Told
75 88 90 88
Would Go to Public Shelter
10 10 8 5
Evacuated in Past 1.9 2.5 .5
Shelter in Place if Told
80 73
Within 10 Mile EPZ 26
Has Brochure 38
SRES Behavioral Survey and Analysis
EARL J. BAKERHAZARDS MANAGEMENT GROUP, INC.
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