6A-4 Steven Molino - floodplainconference.com Steven Molino.pdf · Steven Molino & Steve Roso Overview • Background • Framework – Molino & Roso 2012 • Risk Mapping Results
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11/06/2013
1
Application of Holistic Risk Based Framework
in Floodplain Management
Steven Molino & Steve Roso
Overview
• Background
• Framework – Molino & Roso 2012
• Risk Mapping Results
• Damages Results
• Limitations
• Using the results
Background
• Moreton Bay Regional Floodplain Database Project
• 14 Catchments
• 2,000 km2
• Consistent flood modelling and mapping
• Floodplain risk mapping
Molino Stewart 4
Risk Assessment Approach
• Categories of consequence and categories of likelihood. (NERAG, 2010)
• Acceptable Risk: not necessary to reduce the risk (green)
• Tolerable Risk: reasonably practical measures to reduce risk (yellow)
• Unacceptable Risk: society will not accept this risk and must be reduced to tolerable (red)
Insignificant
Consequence
Significant
Consequence
Severe Consequence
Low probability
Medium probability
High probability
Molino Stewart 5
Risk Types Considered
• Risk of isolation
• Risk to road access
• Risk to personal safety in residential buildings
• Risk to personal safety in non-residential buildings
• Risk to residential property
• Risk to non-residential property
• Risk to critical infrastructure
Topographic Categorisation
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Hydraulic Hazard Categorisation• Base hazard extracted using WaterRIDE for 10, 50,
100, 1000 and PMF events
• Duration that each hazard is exceeded for each
event (used in risk assessment)
Risk Assessment• Utilises the tables presented in Molino and Roso
(2012)
• Some minor modifications as proposed by MBRC and also where data is unavailable.
• Broad scale risk assessment mapping hadn’t been done before, exact methodology was refined in Pilot Study
Event range
(1 in X)
Maximum hazard category of surrounding floodwater
H1
H2 H3-H5
<24
hrs
>24
hrs
<24 hrs >24 hrs
Non
vulnerable
population
Vulnerable
population< 1,000 people > 1,000 people
1,000 - PMF
100-1,000
50 to <100
>10 to <50
10
Risk of
Isolation
Risk to Personal Safety - Residential
Molino Stewart 12
Existing Development
• More than 33,000 buildings in database
• Used database to assess for each:
– Risk to personal safety
– Risk to property
– Risk of isolation
– Tangible damages
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Risk to Personal Safety - Existing
Infrastructure Type Within infrastructure categorisation
Water Supply Local water supply
networkTrunk mains Reservoirs/Towers
Water Treatment Plant
processing infrastructure
Water Treatment Plant
throughput pumps and pipes and mains leading out of WTP
Source (e.g. Dam) and main
trunk
Electricity 11 kV distribution
system33 kV power cables 33/11 kV substation 110 kV power cables 110/33 kV substation
275/110 kV substation &
275kV and higher voltage power cables
TelecommunicationsCables connecting
mini exchangesMini exchanges
Other mobile phone towers cables
connecting terminal exchanges and mobile phone towers to switching
centres and each other
Terminal Exchanges And
critical mobile phone (cellular) transmission towers
intercity cables and cables
between switching centres
Radio transmission
infrastructure used by emergency services.
Telephone switching centres
Emergency Services Minor Evacuation CentreStation (Police/Fire
brigade/Ambulance/SES)
Major Evacuation Centre or
Control Centre (Police/Fire brigade/Ambulance/SES)
Sewage and waste Gravity PipesSewage pumps and waste tips
or landfill
Sewage Water Treatment
Plant
Health services Medical CentresPrivate Hospitals and aged
care facilitiesLocal Public Hospitals Regional Public Hospitals
dddddddddDuration
Event Range<24hrs >24hrs
1,000 - PMF
100-1,000
50 to <100
>10 to <50
10
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Using the Results
• Emergency Planning– Prioritise areas for emergency management– Determine what required to improve risk profile– Check evacuation routes – upgrade?– Work with infrastructure owners– Work with community – education/warning
• Town Planning– Avoid highest risk areas– Determine what features required to make other areas acceptable or
tolerable– Develop appropriate planning controls
• Mitigation Works– Check road and infrastructure impacts and quantify damages– Prioritise locations for flood mitigation or property modification works– Investigate costs and benefits of works (improved risk profile, reduced
damages)
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