Transcript
Merwyn Rapid Research Subsystem Enables Increased Innovation Speed & Decreased Risk By Reducing Testing Time & Cost by up to 50% / 99%
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The consumer is more important than raw material. It is usually easier to replace a supplier of raw material with another than it is to find a new consumer. And a non-consumer, one who has not yet tried your product, is still more important to you, because he represents a possible additional user of your product.
For this reason I shall speak to you of consumer research, because I believe in the importance of consumer research.
Japan 1950 Lecture #1
Background Narrative
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The main use of consumer research is to feed consumer reactions back into the design of the product, so that management can anticipate changing demands and requirements.
Consumer research acts as a governor or servo-mechanism which by probing into the future market regulates both the design of the product and the amount of production.
Japan 1950 Lecture #1
Background Narrative
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How long does it take to design, run and get statistical results from customer research?
A. 1 to 2 HoursB. 1 to 2 DaysC. 1 to 2 WeeksD. 1 to 2 MonthsE. Over 2 Months
PROBLEM
4-1
How long does it take to design, run and get statistical results from customer research?
6%8%14%38%
34%
A. 1 to 2 HoursB. 1 to 2 DaysC. 1 to 2 WeeksD. 1 to 2 MonthsE. Over 2 Months
PROBLEM
4-2
How long does it take to design, run and get statistical results from customer research?
6%8%14%38%
34%
THAT IS NOT FAST!A. 1 to 2 HoursB. 1 to 2 DaysC. 1 to 2 WeeksD. 1 to 2 MonthsE. Over 2 Months
PROBLEM
4-3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9012345678
Pur
chas
e In
tent
New & Different SO…We play it safe decreasing odds of success
Research Takes Too Long & Is Too Expensive
PROBLEM
6
1 Month For Test
1 Month Analysis
1 Month Prep + +
Lets do the Math on Learning Cycle Time
Research Takes Too Long & Is Too Expensive
PROBLEM
7-2
1 Month For Test
1 Month Analysis
1 Month Prep + + =
4 Learning Cycles a Year
Lets do the Math on Learning Cycle Time
Research Takes Too Long & Is Too Expensive
PROBLEM
7-3
Smarter Systems for Specific & Numeric Feedback
90 Minutes For Test
90 Minutes Prep + =
2 Cycles a Day
SOLUTION
8-3
Smarter Systems for Specific & Numeric Feedback
90 Minutes For Test
90 Minutes Prep + =
2 Cycles a Day
=500
Cycles a Year
SOLUTION
8-4
SOLUTION
DEVELOP AlphaDEFINE DISCOVER DELIVERDEVELOP
BetaDEVELOP
1st Release
Proof of Concept
PrototypeCustomer Data
on Concept
TradeoffPrototypes
Customer Data
on Options
FunctionalPrototype
Customer Data
on Function
SellablePrototype
Customer Data
on Details
FinalOfferingCustomer
Datawith Revenue
WrittenPrototype
Clarity on Concept
Customer Dataon Concept
CONSERVATIVE Companies use HARD DATA From Customer Research to Make Innovation Decisions
9-1
SOLUTION
DEVELOP AlphaDEFINE DISCOVER DELIVERDEVELOP
BetaDEVELOP
1st Release
Proof of Concept
PrototypeCustomer Data
on Concept
TradeoffPrototypes
Customer Data
on Options
FunctionalPrototype
Customer Data
on Function
SellablePrototype
Customer Data
on Details
FinalOfferingCustomer
Datawith Revenue
WrittenPrototype
Clarity on Concept
Customer Dataon Concept
CONSERVATIVE Companies use HARD DATA From Customer Research to Make Innovation Decisions
“GAMBLERS” Rely on Gut Instinct
and Luck
9-2
SOLUTION
Merwyn Rapid Research Subsystem Enables Increased Innovation Speed & Decreased Risk By Reducing Testing Time & Cost by up to 50% / 99%
11-1
SOLUTION
is named in memory of Merwyn “Buzz” Hall
Merwyn Rapid Research Subsystem Enables Increased Innovation Speed & Decreased Risk By Reducing Testing Time & Cost by up to 50% / 99%
11-2
Enables Increased Innovation Speed & Decreased Risk By Reducing Testing Time & Cost by up to 50% / 99%
SOLUTION
imic id is tt rt
Smart Advice Validated Concept Tests & Sales ForecastsMicro-Seconds Minutes Hours
Specific Advice
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HOW IT WORKSAccelerate Quantitative Research Increase decision speed up to 20X decrease costs by up to 90%
14-1
HOW IT WORKSAccelerate Quantitative Research Increase decision speed up to 20X decrease costs by up to 90%
Set Up
BLUE / BLACK BELT
ResearchSubsystem
Leader
EstablishBoundaries
• Decision Authority • Resources $ / time
14-2
HOW IT WORKSAccelerate Quantitative Research Increase decision speed up to 20X decrease costs by up to 90%
Establish Networks
INTERNALWisdom Networks • Writing Experts • Forecasting Experts • Marketing Experts • Technical Experts • Certified Raters
EXTERNALFeedback Networks
• Online Systems • Face to Face Systems • Customer/Non Customer • Expert Panels
Set Up
BLUE / BLACK BELT
ResearchSubsystem
Leader
EstablishBoundaries
• Decision Authority • Resources $ / time
14-3
HOW IT WORKSAccelerate Quantitative Research Increase decision speed up to 20X decrease costs by up to 90%
Establish Networks
INTERNALWisdom Networks • Writing Experts • Forecasting Experts • Marketing Experts • Technical Experts • Certified Raters
EXTERNALFeedback Networks
• Online Systems • Face to Face Systems • Customer/Non Customer • Expert Panels
Specific & Numeric Internal Wisdom
Enable Employees
Research COLLEGE
1 Day Specific & Numeric External Feedback
Set Up
BLUE / BLACK BELT
ResearchSubsystem
Leader
EstablishBoundaries
• Decision Authority • Resources $ / time
14-4
HOW IT WORKSAccelerate Quantitative Research Increase decision speed up to 20X decrease costs by up to 90%
Establish Networks
INTERNALWisdom Networks • Writing Experts • Forecasting Experts • Marketing Experts • Technical Experts • Certified Raters
EXTERNALFeedback Networks
• Online Systems • Face to Face Systems • Customer/Non Customer • Expert Panels
Specific & Numeric Internal Wisdom
Enable Employees
Research COLLEGE
1 Day Specific & Numeric External Feedback
Set Up
BLUE / BLACK BELT
ResearchSubsystem
Leader
EstablishBoundaries
• Decision Authority • Resources $ / time
Get Smarter
BLUE / BLACK BELT
MonthlyResearchSummits
DriveImprovement
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SUPER EASY
• Direct From Projects • One PLACE for All
• Use Individually • Use During Sessions
- Virtual Sessions - Problem Solving
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Merwyn Rapid Research
Risk Adjusted Forecasts Introduce your innovation 30,000 times
Quantitative Ideas & Advice From Around the World
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7x smarter than humans picking winning ideas.
60
40
20
0 Humans
% W
rong
70%Wrong
10%Wrong
Marketplace ValidatedBASES ValidatedNIST Validated
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The Famous Grouse ‘Refresh’
The classic spirit infused with modern flavours
Flavoured Scottish Spirit
The master blenders at The Famous Grouse distillery have taken an age-old process asthe inspiration in creating The Famous Grouse ‘Refresh’. Taking traditional clear spirit andapplying a modern twist; infusing it with a delicate mix of local fruits and spices.
The clear spirit is taken straight from the stills without cask ageing - as it was 300 years ago. The spirit is then blended with loganberry juice, honey and spices from the Scottish Highlands. The result; a clear, smooth, 30% ABV drink, with a modern and easy-drinkingflavour.
Mix Famous Grouse ‘Refresh’ with ginger ale and bitters to appreciate the complex flavours, or enjoy with fresh lime juice, cranberry and orange for maximum refreshment.
After Reading - Please CIRCLE words or images that you LIKE & CROSS OUT words or images you DISLIKE
Full Package Product
Concept & UsePaired Comparison
Single Product24 Hours
Scores Weighted60% Purchase Intent40% New & Different
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Meaningful Uniqueness Increases Diffussion
Odd
s of
Wor
d of
Mou
th D
iffus
ion
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Meaningful Uniqueness. 60% Purchase Intent, 40% Uniquneness0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 20 32 44 56 68 81 90 Merwyn Scores
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Old CORE = 5.0 12% odds of Word of Mouth New CORE = 6.0 14% odds of Word of Mouth
OLD LEAP = 6.0 14% odds of Word of MouthNEW LEAP = 7.5 27%% odds of Word of Mouth
LEAP into Development 7.0 - - - LEAP to Deliver 7.5
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10LEAPCORE
Under Consideration
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Merwyn Validation
Correlation = .82
Probability of Sustained Marketplace Success
Correlation = .70
Correlation with REAL World Results (Raw results - not adjusted for marketing support)
% Trial Purchase Frequency % Repeat $/1000 Customers
0
20
40
60
% W
rong
Humans
10 % Wrong
Merwyn is 7X Smarter than Humans
70 % Wrong
I.R.I. Scanner Data
60% PP / 40% N&D Still in Distribution after 3 Years
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Correlation with Merwyn Concept Score
R-Value=.685 p<.0005
AND Computer Reading
Computer Provides Balance
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1. Start Up & LearnProject Team
As Primary InternalResearch Panel
Solicit & Educate Volunteers forInternal Panels
Ideas, Forecasting Writing,& Evaluation
30-3
1. Start Up & LearnProject Team
As Primary InternalResearch Panel
Solicit & Educate Volunteers forInternal Panels
Ideas, Forecasting Writing,& Evaluation
Systems/Panels for testing
with Customers & Prospects
30-4
1. Start Up & LearnCommercial Panels Sales Force Customer Service Staff Trade Shows Web Site Registrations Trade Magazine Lists Customer Panels
Systems/Panels for testing
with Customers & Prospects
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1. Start Up & Learn
SEND TO Collaboration
Blogs
Systems/Panels for testing
with Customers & ProspectsSEND TO
ExternalE-Mail Lists
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2. Customize for OrganizationDiffuse Across Organization -
Educate & EnrollIn Panels / Blogs
Workshops
33-2
2. Customize for OrganizationPublish
Reference Standards for Sales Forecasting
Diffuse Across Organization -
Educate & EnrollIn Panels / Blogs
Workshops
33-3
2. Customize for OrganizationPublish
Reference Standards for Sales Forecasting
Customize Marketing Plan
Options
Delphi Research
Diffuse Across Organization -
Educate & EnrollIn Panels / Blogs
Workshops
33-4
3. World Class Rapid ResearchForensic Analysis of
Total GO TO MARKET SYSTEM
Invest Time & Energyto CERTIFY Internal
Merwyn Truth Teller Panel
34-3
Expand Accelerators OUTSIDE of the EVENT LOCATION
NEW USES
ON SITE ACCELERATOR
TEAM
OFF SITE ACCELERATOR
TEAM
35-3
Expand Accelerators OUTSIDE of the EVENT LOCATION
NEW USES
407 Times in 4 Days Teams Received Specific &/or Numeric Feedback
Teams made SMARTER DECISIONS
ON SITE ACCELERATOR
TEAM
OFF SITE ACCELERATOR
TEAM
35-4
Make Stage Gate Meetings More Valuable
NEW USES
DEVELOP Alpha DELIVERDEVELOP
BetaDEVELOP
1st ReleaseDEFINE DISCOVER
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Use DATA to drive Very Important System Projects
NEW USES
VIS Very Important SystemsFor How We Work Creating New Capabilities that enable…Growth, Cost Savings,Performance, Quality or Productivity
Problem SurveysIdea Starter Surveys
WITH VIDEO CAPTURE
Team Feedback
NO OUT OF POCKET COST
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Use Idea Doubling & Math Doubling to Get Smarter
NEW USES
Marketing MessagesSales Pitches
Sales Forecasts
MATHDOUBLING
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What is Delphi?
It was developed at the RAND Corporation in the late 1950’s
Delphi is a validated method for getting more accurate data from groups of experts.
In academic studies it was found to be more accurate than:
• Groups that debate to “right answer” - 5 to 1 with one academic study being a tie.
• Gathering a statistical sample from experts - 12 to 2 with two academic studies being a tie.
Scott Armstrong
COMING IN A FEW MONTHS
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Delphi Uses
A powerful system for predicting the future “In what year do you predict that the majority of our customers will convert to ____ technology. ”
“ What are the odds that the majority of our customers will convert to ____ technology by 2030.”
40-2
Delphi Uses
A powerful system for predicting the future “In what year do you predict that the majority of our customers will convert to ____ technology. ”
“ What are the odds that the majority of our customers will convert to ____ technology by 2030.”
A powerful system for estimating numbers “What do you think is the most consumer would pay for the following product (yellow card). ”
“Given our system of advertising, marketing and selling what percent of customers do you think will be aware of this offering after a year of being on the market”
40-3
Delphi Uses
A powerful system for predicting the future “In what year do you predict that the majority of our customers will convert to ____ technology. ”
“ What are the odds that the majority of our customers will convert to ____ technology by 2030.”
A powerful system for estimating numbers “What do you think is the most consumer would pay for the following product (yellow card). ”
“Given our system of advertising, marketing and selling what percent of customers do you think will be aware of this offering after a year of being on the market”
A powerful system for evaluating projects & doing planning “What percentage of our customers would stock the following product (yellow card) if we offered it? ”
“How long do you estimate that it will take to develop this new product idea?”
40-4
Innovation Has 10% Odds of Success
You fail but get twice as smartBenefit of Plan, Do, Study, Act
1. 2.
3. 4. STUDY
42-3
Innovation Has 10% Odds of Success
You fail but get twice as smartNow the Innovation has 20% Odds
Benefit of Plan, Do, Study, Act
1. 2.
3. 4. STUDY
42-4
Innovation Has 10% Odds of Success
You fail but get twice as smartNow the Innovation has 20% Odds
You fail but get twice as smart
Benefit of Plan, Do, Study, Act
1. 2.
3. 4. STUDY
42-5
Innovation Has 10% Odds of Success
You fail but get twice as smartNow the Innovation has 20% Odds
You fail but get twice as smartNow the Innovation has 40% Odds
Benefit of Plan, Do, Study, Act
1. 2.
3. 4. STUDY
42-6
Innovation Has 10% Odds of Success
You fail but get twice as smartNow the Innovation has 20% Odds
You fail but get twice as smartNow the Innovation has 40% Odds
You fail but get twice as smart
Benefit of Plan, Do, Study, Act
1. 2.
3. 4. STUDY
42-7
Innovation Has 10% Odds of Success
You fail but get twice as smartNow the Innovation has 20% Odds
You fail but get twice as smartNow the Innovation has 40% Odds
You fail but get twice as smartNow the Innovation has 80% Odds
Benefit of Plan, Do, Study, Act
1. 2.
3. 4. STUDY
42-8
Innovation Has 10% Odds of Success
You fail but get twice as smartNow the Innovation has 20% Odds
You fail but get twice as smartNow the Innovation has 40% Odds
You fail but get twice as smartNow the Innovation has 80% Odds
You WIN!
Benefit of Plan, Do, Study, Act
1. 2.
3. 4. STUDY
42-9
It’s A Way of Living1. Plan
What Death Threat?
2. Do Learn
3. Study What learned?
4. Act Apply Revise Stop STUDY
P•D•S•A
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