4 ie 2015 rapid research

Merwyn Rapid Research Subsystem Enables Increased Innovation Speed & Decreased Risk By Reducing Testing Time & Cost by up to 50% / 99%

1

The consumer is more important than raw material. It is usually easier to replace a supplier of raw material with another than it is to find a new consumer. And a non-consumer, one who has not yet tried your product, is still more important to you, because he represents a possible additional user of your product.

For this reason I shall speak to you of consumer research, because I believe in the importance of consumer research.

Japan 1950 Lecture #1

Background Narrative

2

The main use of consumer research is to feed consumer reactions back into the design of the product, so that management can anticipate changing demands and requirements.

Consumer research acts as a governor or servo-mechanism which by probing into the future market regulates both the design of the product and the amount of production.

Japan 1950 Lecture #1

Background Narrative

3

How long does it take to design, run and get statistical results from customer research?

A. 1 to 2 HoursB. 1 to 2 DaysC. 1 to 2 WeeksD. 1 to 2 MonthsE. Over 2 Months

PROBLEM

4-1


6%8%14%38%

34%

A. 1 to 2 HoursB. 1 to 2 DaysC. 1 to 2 WeeksD. 1 to 2 MonthsE. Over 2 Months

PROBLEM

4-2


6%8%14%38%

34%

THAT IS NOT FAST!A. 1 to 2 HoursB. 1 to 2 DaysC. 1 to 2 WeeksD. 1 to 2 MonthsE. Over 2 Months

PROBLEM

4-3

Research Takes Too Long & Is Too Expensive

PROBLEM

5-1


SO… We Gamble Using Our Judgement

PROBLEM

5-2

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9012345678

Pur

chas

e In

tent

New & Different SO…We play it safe decreasing odds of success


PROBLEM

6

Lets do the Math on Learning Cycle Time


PROBLEM

7-1

1 Month For Test

1 Month Analysis

1 Month Prep + +



PROBLEM

7-2

1 Month For Test

1 Month Analysis

1 Month Prep + + =

4 Learning Cycles a Year



PROBLEM

7-3

Smarter Systems for Specific & Numeric Feedback

SOLUTION

8-1


90 Minutes For Test

90 Minutes Prep +

SOLUTION

8-2


90 Minutes For Test

90 Minutes Prep + =

2 Cycles a Day

SOLUTION

8-3


90 Minutes For Test

90 Minutes Prep + =

2 Cycles a Day

=500

Cycles a Year

SOLUTION

8-4

SOLUTION

DEVELOP AlphaDEFINE DISCOVER DELIVERDEVELOP

BetaDEVELOP

1st Release

Proof of Concept

PrototypeCustomer Data

on Concept

TradeoffPrototypes

Customer Data

on Options

FunctionalPrototype

Customer Data

on Function

SellablePrototype

Customer Data

on Details

FinalOfferingCustomer

Datawith Revenue

WrittenPrototype

Clarity on Concept

Customer Dataon Concept

CONSERVATIVE Companies use HARD DATA From Customer Research to Make Innovation Decisions

9-1

SOLUTION

DEVELOP AlphaDEFINE DISCOVER DELIVERDEVELOP

BetaDEVELOP

1st Release

Proof of Concept

PrototypeCustomer Data

on Concept

TradeoffPrototypes

Customer Data

on Options

FunctionalPrototype

Customer Data

on Function

SellablePrototype

Customer Data

on Details

FinalOfferingCustomer

Datawith Revenue

WrittenPrototype

Clarity on Concept

Customer Dataon Concept

CONSERVATIVE Companies use HARD DATA From Customer Research to Make Innovation Decisions

“GAMBLERS” Rely on Gut Instinct

and Luck

9-2

Build CourageBy making itEasy…to run

Experiments

SOLUTION

10

SOLUTION


11-1

SOLUTION

is named in memory of Merwyn “Buzz” Hall


11-2

Enables Increased Innovation Speed & Decreased Risk By Reducing Testing Time & Cost by up to 50% / 99%

SOLUTION

imic id is tt rt

Smart Advice Validated Concept Tests & Sales ForecastsMicro-Seconds Minutes Hours

Specific Advice

12

How It Works

13

HOW IT WORKSAccelerate Quantitative Research Increase decision speed up to 20X decrease costs by up to 90%

14-1


Set Up

BLUE / BLACK BELT

ResearchSubsystem

Leader

EstablishBoundaries

• Decision Authority • Resources $ / time

14-2


Establish Networks

INTERNALWisdom Networks • Writing Experts • Forecasting Experts • Marketing Experts • Technical Experts • Certified Raters

EXTERNALFeedback Networks

• Online Systems • Face to Face Systems • Customer/Non Customer • Expert Panels

Set Up

BLUE / BLACK BELT

ResearchSubsystem

Leader

EstablishBoundaries


14-3


Establish Networks




Specific & Numeric Internal Wisdom

Enable Employees

Research COLLEGE

1 Day Specific & Numeric External Feedback

Set Up

BLUE / BLACK BELT

ResearchSubsystem

Leader

EstablishBoundaries


14-4


Establish Networks




Specific & Numeric Internal Wisdom

Enable Employees

Research COLLEGE

1 Day Specific & Numeric External Feedback

Set Up

BLUE / BLACK BELT

ResearchSubsystem

Leader

EstablishBoundaries


Get Smarter

BLUE / BLACK BELT

MonthlyResearchSummits

DriveImprovement

14-5

SUPER EASY

• Direct From Projects • One PLACE for All

• Use Individually • Use During Sessions

- Virtual Sessions - Problem Solving

15

90 Minutes

16

10 MinutesIdeas and Advice

From Around the World

17

Artificial IntelligenceComputer Reading

Improves Communications 40%

18

Merwyn Rapid Research

Risk Adjusted Forecasts Introduce your innovation 30,000 times

Quantitative Ideas & Advice From Around the World

19

7x smarter than humans picking winning ideas.

60

40

20

0 Humans

% W

rong

70%Wrong

10%Wrong

Marketplace ValidatedBASES ValidatedNIST Validated

20

The Famous Grouse ‘Refresh’

The classic spirit infused with modern flavours

Flavoured Scottish Spirit

The master blenders at The Famous Grouse distillery have taken an age-old process asthe inspiration in creating The Famous Grouse ‘Refresh’. Taking traditional clear spirit andapplying a modern twist; infusing it with a delicate mix of local fruits and spices.

The clear spirit is taken straight from the stills without cask ageing - as it was 300 years ago. The spirit is then blended with loganberry juice, honey and spices from the Scottish Highlands. The result; a clear, smooth, 30% ABV drink, with a modern and easy-drinkingflavour.

Mix Famous Grouse ‘Refresh’ with ginger ale and bitters to appreciate the complex flavours, or enjoy with fresh lime juice, cranberry and orange for maximum refreshment.

After Reading - Please CIRCLE words or images that you LIKE & CROSS OUT words or images you DISLIKE

Full Package Product

Concept & UsePaired Comparison

Single Product24 Hours

Scores Weighted60% Purchase Intent40% New & Different

21

No Cost To Run

22-1

No Cost To Run $1,000per test or No Cost

when inside

22-2

No Cost To Run $1,000per test or No Cost

when inside

Field CostAbout$1,000

Depends on

Category

22-3

Meaningful Uniqueness Increases Diffussion

Odd

s of

Wor

d of

Mou

th D

iffus

ion

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Meaningful Uniqueness. 60% Purchase Intent, 40% Uniquneness0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

10 20 32 44 56 68 81 90 Merwyn Scores

23

Old CORE = 5.0 12% odds of Word of Mouth New CORE = 6.0 14% odds of Word of Mouth

OLD LEAP = 6.0 14% odds of Word of MouthNEW LEAP = 7.5 27%% odds of Word of Mouth

LEAP into Development 7.0 - - - LEAP to Deliver 7.5

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10LEAPCORE

Under Consideration

24

Merwyn Validation

Correlation = .82

Probability of Sustained Marketplace Success

Correlation = .70

Correlation with REAL World Results (Raw results - not adjusted for marketing support)

% Trial Purchase Frequency % Repeat $/1000 Customers

0

20

40

60

% W

rong

Humans

10 % Wrong

Merwyn is 7X Smarter than Humans

70 % Wrong

I.R.I. Scanner Data

60% PP / 40% N&D Still in Distribution after 3 Years

25

50 Merwyn Factors

5 Certified Raters

15 Student Black Belt

Answerable Questions

idea scan

26

Correlation with Merwyn Concept Score

R-Value=.685 p<.0005

AND Computer Reading

Computer Provides Balance

27

Easy Set Up

VIDEO CAPTURE

Insight Mining - Rapid Test

28-1

Easy Set Up Automated Statistical Reports

VIDEO CAPTURE

Insight Mining - Rapid Test

28-2

1. Start Up & Learn

2. Customize for Organization

3. World Class Rapid Research

29

1. Start Up & Learn

30-1

1. Start Up & LearnProject Team

As Primary InternalResearch Panel

30-2



Solicit & Educate Volunteers forInternal Panels

Ideas, Forecasting Writing,& Evaluation

30-3



Solicit & Educate Volunteers forInternal Panels

Ideas, Forecasting Writing,& Evaluation

Systems/Panels for testing

with Customers & Prospects

30-4

1. Start Up & LearnCommercial Panels Sales Force Customer Service Staff Trade Shows Web Site Registrations Trade Magazine Lists Customer Panels


with Customers & Prospects

31

1. Start Up & Learn

SEND TO Collaboration

Blogs


with Customers & ProspectsSEND TO

ExternalE-Mail Lists

32

2. Customize for Organization

33-1

2. Customize for OrganizationDiffuse Across Organization -

Educate & EnrollIn Panels / Blogs

Workshops

33-2

2. Customize for OrganizationPublish

Reference Standards for Sales Forecasting

Diffuse Across Organization -


Workshops

33-3

2. Customize for OrganizationPublish

Reference Standards for Sales Forecasting

Customize Marketing Plan

Options

Delphi Research

Diffuse Across Organization -


Workshops

33-4

3. World Class Rapid Research

34-1

3. World Class Rapid ResearchInvest Time & Energyto CERTIFY Internal

Merwyn Truth Teller Panel

34-2

3. World Class Rapid ResearchForensic Analysis of

Total GO TO MARKET SYSTEM

Invest Time & Energyto CERTIFY Internal

Merwyn Truth Teller Panel

34-3

Expand Accelerators OUTSIDE of the EVENT LOCATION

NEW USES

35-1


NEW USES

ON SITE ACCELERATOR

TEAM

35-2


NEW USES

ON SITE ACCELERATOR

TEAM

OFF SITE ACCELERATOR

TEAM

35-3


NEW USES

407 Times in 4 Days Teams Received Specific &/or Numeric Feedback

Teams made SMARTER DECISIONS

ON SITE ACCELERATOR

TEAM

OFF SITE ACCELERATOR

TEAM

35-4

Make Stage Gate Meetings More Valuable

NEW USES

DEVELOP Alpha DELIVERDEVELOP

BetaDEVELOP

1st ReleaseDEFINE DISCOVER

36

Use DATA to drive Very Important System Projects

NEW USES

VIS Very Important SystemsFor How We Work Creating New Capabilities that enable…Growth, Cost Savings,Performance, Quality or Productivity

Problem SurveysIdea Starter Surveys

WITH VIDEO CAPTURE

Team Feedback

NO OUT OF POCKET COST

37

Use Idea Doubling & Math Doubling to Get Smarter

NEW USES

Marketing MessagesSales Pitches

Sales Forecasts

MATHDOUBLING

38

What is Delphi?

It was developed at the RAND Corporation in the late 1950’s

Delphi is a validated method for getting more accurate data from groups of experts.

In academic studies it was found to be more accurate than:

• Groups that debate to “right answer” - 5 to 1 with one academic study being a tie.

• Gathering a statistical sample from experts - 12 to 2 with two academic studies being a tie.

Scott Armstrong

COMING IN A FEW MONTHS

39

Delphi Uses

40-1

Delphi Uses

A powerful system for predicting the future “In what year do you predict that the majority of our customers will convert to ____ technology. ”

“ What are the odds that the majority of our customers will convert to ____ technology by 2030.”

40-2

Delphi Uses



A powerful system for estimating numbers “What do you think is the most consumer would pay for the following product (yellow card). ”

“Given our system of advertising, marketing and selling what percent of customers do you think will be aware of this offering after a year of being on the market”

40-3

Delphi Uses



A powerful system for estimating numbers “What do you think is the most consumer would pay for the following product (yellow card). ”

“Given our system of advertising, marketing and selling what percent of customers do you think will be aware of this offering after a year of being on the market”

A powerful system for evaluating projects & doing planning “What percentage of our customers would stock the following product (yellow card) if we offered it? ”

“How long do you estimate that it will take to develop this new product idea?”

40-4

The faster you failSummary

41-1

The faster you fail

the sooner you get successful

Summary

41-2

Benefit of Plan, Do, Study, Act

1. 2.

3. 4. STUDY

42-1

Innovation Has 10% Odds of SuccessBenefit of Plan, Do, Study, Act

1. 2.

3. 4. STUDY

42-2

Innovation Has 10% Odds of Success

You fail but get twice as smartBenefit of Plan, Do, Study, Act

1. 2.

3. 4. STUDY

42-3


You fail but get twice as smartNow the Innovation has 20% Odds


1. 2.

3. 4. STUDY

42-4



You fail but get twice as smart


1. 2.

3. 4. STUDY

42-5





1. 2.

3. 4. STUDY

42-6




You fail but get twice as smart


1. 2.

3. 4. STUDY

42-7






1. 2.

3. 4. STUDY

42-8





You WIN!


1. 2.

3. 4. STUDY

42-9

It’s A Way of Living1. Plan

What Death Threat?

2. Do Learn

3. Study What learned?

4. Act Apply Revise Stop STUDY

P•D•S•A

43

LIVE DEMO

44


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4 ie 2015 rapid research

Documents

customer research

consumer research acts

expensive problem

concept customer data

learning cycle time

main use of consumer

months problem

month prep