2010-02-12-Flanagan-slides_David Flanagan Presentation to the Portland Chamber of Commerce
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8/3/2019 2010-02-12-Flanagan-slides_David Flanagan Presentation to the Portland Chamber of Commerce
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A Financial Crisis is a TerribleThing to Waste
David Flanagan
dtflan1234@aol.com
207-724-2041
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mailto:dtflan1234@aol.commailto:dtflan1234@aol.com8/3/2019 2010-02-12-Flanagan-slides_David Flanagan Presentation to the Portland Chamber of Commerce
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So How Are We Doing?
National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP)
4th Grade Reading Proficiency Maines Ranking
1998 4th ranking
2007 10th ranking
8th Grade Mathematics Proficiency Maines Ranking
1996 1st ranking
2007 24th ranking
2Source: Dr. David Silvernail
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So How Are We Doing?
2008 SAT Test Scores
Critical Reading Mathematics Writing
National 502 515 494
Maine 469 466 461
Maine vs
National (-33) (-49) (-33)
3Source: Dr. David Silvernail
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Percent of Adults with Associate Degree or Higher by Age GroupsLeading OECD Countries, U.S. and New England States, 2006
Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008 (2006 data for countries) and U.S. Census, American CommunitySurvey, 2006.
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Education, 39%
Human Services, 22%
Higher Educ.,9%
Admin. , 4%
Mental Health, 10%
Corrections, 5%Other, 11%
Maine State Expenditures(2008 General Fund)
Source data: STATE of MAINE Compendium of State Fiscal Information, 2008
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Nominal K-12 Expenditures vs K-12 Enrollment
Indexed to 1978-79 =100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
78-79 83-84 88-89 93-94 98-99 03-04 05-06
Expenditures
Enrollment
451%
-16%
Source: Maine DevelopmentFoundation
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7Source: CQ Fact Finder, 2009, p. 143
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Maine Public School Staff
1980-81 to 2007-08
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
NumberofFull-TimeStaff
Classroom Teachers
All Other Staff
Source: Maine DevelopmentFoundation
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Statewide Special Education Expenditures
(in millions of $)
$123$133 $137
$149
$163$172
$186
$203
$218
$237$247
$261
$276$283
$290
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
92-93
93-94
94-95
95-96
96-97
97-98
98-99
99-00
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
06-07
Source: Maine DevelopmentFoundation
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
National 2009 Maine 1999 Maine 2009 Avg of Peer States
Estimated Pupil-Teacher Ratio, K-12, 2009
Source::CQ Fact Finder 2009, p. 143
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K-12 Special Ed Expenditures
as % of Total K-12 Expenditures
5%
14%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
78-79 06-07
Source: Maine DevelopmentFoundation
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Source: Dr. David Silvernail, MEPRI,08/09
12
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Source: Dr. David Silvernail, MEPRI,08/09
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Source: Dr. David Silvernail, MEPRI08/09
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FactorPer Pupil TotalExpenditure
Per Pupil
InstructionalExpenditures
Per Pupil Non-
InstructionalExpenditures
Distrace Average
Grade MEAPerformance
Per Pupil
Expenditures 1 0.68 0.83 0.01
Per Pupil
Instructional
Expenditures 1 0.05 0.12
Per Pupil Non-Instructional
Expenditures 1 -0.07
District Average
8th Grade MEA
Performance 1
Three year averages
FY 2006-2008
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Source: Maine DevelopmentFoundation
15
37
28
3536
35
3130
35
3233
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
NationalRan
k
National Rank on Per Capita Personal Income1985-2008
.
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Percento
fHouseholds
Income Range
Percent of Maine Households with High Property Tax Burden,
by Income
Tax > 6% Income
Tax > 10% Income
Source: Allen and Woodbury 2006.
16
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Resident Pupil Counts1970 to 2003 Actual, 2004 to 2017 Projected
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175,000
185,000
195,000
205,000
215,000
225,000
235,000
245,000
255,000
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Grade
Count
* Does not include
unorganized territoriesTrendlineActual
Projected
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Change in School Enrollment
Percent, 1996-2005
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
York
Cumberland
Sagadahoc
Lincoln
Knox
Waldo
Hancock
Androscoggin
Kennebec
Penobscot
Oxford
Franklin
Somerset
Piscataquis
Aroostook
Washington
PercentChange
Coastal Central Rim
Maine -7.5%
Source: Maine DevelopmentFoundation
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Percent Change in School Enrollment
1970-2002
-31%
-14%
8%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1
Service
CentersOther
Communities
Maine
Average
Source: Maine DevelopmentFoundation
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-1% -3%
-11%
28%
97%
55%
28%14%
0-17 18-29 30-44 45-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Total
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Percent Population Change by Age Cohort
Maine 1999 to 2025
Source: Maine DevelopmentFoundation
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ReferencesDr. Richard Woodbury
Dr. David Silvernail
Laurie Lachance, Maine Development
Foundation
Meeting New Challenges, Setting
New Directions: Task Force Report
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