1C. Identify and Rate Critical Threats (Stress-based Threat Rating)

1C. Identify and Rate Critical Threats

(Stress-based Threat Rating)

Conservation Coaches Network Workshop Presentation

Adaptive Management Workshop Presentations

1A-1B. Team, Scope, Vision1B. Conservation Targets1B. Viability Assessment

2A-1. Strategy Selection2A-2. Results Chains2A-3. Goals and Objectives

2B. Monitoring Plan

1C. Threat Rating

1D. Conceptual Models

Conceptualize Threats

This Presentation

• What are Stresses and Direct Threats• How to Identify Stresses and Direct Threats• How to Do a Stress-Based Threat Rating

Threats

What is a Stress?

• Stress: an impaired key ecological attribute (KEA) of a target. A single stress can be caused by multiple direct threats.

Threats

Target Type of KEA Key Ecological Attribute (KEA)

Stress (Altered KEA)

Forest Size Size of primary forest

Habitat loss

Forest Landscape Context

Connectivity of primary forest

Habitat fragmentation

Wetland Condition Species composition

Altered species composition

Shorebirds Condition Reproductive rate Reduced reproductive success

Direct Threats: Human-induced actions or events that will directly degrade one or more conservation targets

Direct threats are: – usually human activities, but they can be– natural phenomena altered by human activities or

whose impact is increased by human activities (e.g., disease transmitted by livestock)

Coral Reefs

Diver and anchor damage

Legal but unsustainable fishing by local

fishermen

What is a Direct Threat? Threats

Examples of Direct Threats

Photo: Adrian Jones, IAN Image Library

Operation of Dams

Unsustainable harvestUnsustainable Logging

Incompatible Livestock Grazing

Residential Development

Exotic/Invasive Species

Threats

IUCN-CMP Classification of Direct Threats

Available at www.conservationmeasures.org

Salafsky et al. (2008). Conservation Biology

Threats

Difference Between Direct Threat & Stress?

• Stress: an impaired key ecological attribute of a target. A single stress can be caused by multiple direct threats.

Examples: habitat fragmentation, high mortality

• Direct Threat: Human-induced actions or events that will directly degrade one or more conservation targets. A direct threat has at least one actor associated with it.

Example: residential development

Threats

Direct Threat Example Stress(es) Example Target Affected

Dams Altered stream flowsReduced reproductive success of fish

Rivers and streamsMigratory fish

Unsustainable Logging

Erosion (Rivers and streams)SedimentationHabitat destructionHabitat fragmentation

Rivers and streamsRivers and streams, EstuariesForestsForests

Illegal Hunting Altered population structure Monkeys, Rhinos

Unsustainable Agriculture

SedimentationHabitat destructionHabitat fragmentation

Rivers and streams, EstuariesForests, Grasslands, WetlandsForests, Grasslands, Wetlands

Climate change

Coral bleachingRising sea levelsReduced rainfall

Coral reefsShoreline habitatForests, Grasslands, Deserts

Difference Between Direct Threat & Stress? Threats

• Direct threat: Human-induced actions or events that will directly degrade one or more conservation targets. A direct threat has at least one actor associated with it.

Example: residential development

• Indirect threat/contributing factor (short definition): an economic, cultural, societal, or institutional factor which allows or encourages direct threats to occur

Examples: need for income, lack of knowledge, low capacity

Difference Between Direct & Indirect Threats? Threats

This Presentation

• What are Stresses and Direct Threats• How to Identify Stresses and Direct Threats• How to Do a Stress-Based Threat Rating

Threats

How Do You Identify Stresses and Direct Threats?

1. For one conservation target, review the key ecological attributes (KEAs).

– Target: Riparian habitat– KEAs: Spatial extent, connectivity of riparian corridor

2. Identify stresses by determining which KEAs are altered. Stresses = altered KEAs.

– Stresses: Habitat conversion, habitat fragmentation

3. Identify the direct threats causing the stresses. Direct threats = sources of stress.

– Direct threats: Development, Agriculture, Grazing

4. Link direct threats to targets5. Link direct threats to relevant stresses

Our Example:Swan Coastal Plain Wetlands

Adapted from WWF Australia’s Wetlands Watch Project

Threats

1. Review KEAs for One Target

KEAs for Seasonally Flooded Wetlands:• Area of seasonally flooded wetlands of high

conservation value (HCV)• Vegetative community structure• Water level fluctuations

Threats

2. Identify Stresses (Altered KEAs)

KEAs and Stresses for Seasonally Flooded Wetlands:• Area of seasonally flooded wetlands of high

conservation value (HCV) => Habitat loss• Vegetative community structure => Altered

vegetative species composition• Water level fluctuations => Altered hydrology

Threats

2. Identify Stresses (Altered KEAs) Threats

Inputting Stresses into MiradiDouble-click on the target and select the “Stresses” tab

3. Identify Direct Threats Causing Stresses Threats

Stresses and Direct Threats Affecting Seasonally Flooded Wetlands:

Stresses Direct ThreatsHabitat loss • Illegal clearing of brush by landowners

• Clearing for (conversion to) residential & infrastructure development

• OvergrazingAltered vegetative species composition

• Invasive weeds• Overgrazing

Altered hydrology • Increased groundwater extraction• Climate change (reduced rain)

2. Identify Stresses – Another Example

KEAs and Stresses for Blue-Billed Ducks• Reproductive success => Reduced reproductive

success• Area of high conservation value habitat =>

Habitat loss

Threats

3. Identify Direct Threats – Another Example Threats

Stresses and Direct Threats Affecting Blue-billed Ducks:Stresses Direct ThreatsReduced reproductive success

• Pesticides from agriculture

Habitat loss • Clearing for residential & infrastructure development

• Illegal clearing of brush by landowners

4. Identify Direct Threats & Link Them Threats

Invasive weeds

4. Identify Direct Threats & Link Them Threats

Illegal clearing by landowners

Clearing for residential & infrastructure

Increased groundwater

extraction

4. Identify Direct Threats & Link Them Threats

Climate change

Overgrazing

Pesticides from

agriculture

4. Identify Direct Threats & Link Them Threats

When to Lump or Split Direct Threats

Lump direct threats if:• they are similar and are caused by the same actors• they will require similar strategies• you have a lot of direct threatsExample: all unsustainable fishing practices used by local fishers

Split if direct threats:• are different and are caused by different actors• will require different strategiesExample: unsustainable fishing practices used by local, small-scale fishers vs. illegal practices used by industrial fishing boats

Threats

Threats5. Link Direct Threats to Relevant Stresses

Cursor is placed on the box linking Invasive Weeds (direct threat) to Seasonally Flooded Wetlands (target)Check-box used to link

Invasive Weeds (direct threat) to Altered vegetative species composition (stress)

Select Threat Ratings

Select Stress-based Threat Rating Mode

Threats5. Link Direct Threats to Relevant Stresses

Repeat for all direct threats. In this case, Increased Groundwater Extraction (direct threat) affects Seasonally Flooded Wetlands (target)…

…by contributing to Altered Hydrology (stress)

This Presentation

• What are Stresses and Direct Threats• How to Identify Stresses and Direct Threats• How to Do a Stress-Based Threat Rating

Threats

Why Rate Threats?

• Limited resources

• Complex situations

• Applying a systematic methdology helps you decide what threats to focus on

Threats

How to Do a Stress-based Threat Rating

1. Rate impact of stresses on targets2. Rate effect of threats on stresses3. Review and discuss summary ratings4. Show highest stresses on overall

conceptual model

Threats

1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets

Step 1: Rate impact of each stress affecting it a target for:

–Scope–Severity

Conservation Target

Direct Threat (Source of

Stress)Stress

Scope

Severity

Threats

1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets - Scope

Spatial proportion of the target affected within ten years given continuation of current circumstances and trends.

– For ecosystems: proportion of the target's

occurrence

– For species: proportion of the target’s population

Threats

1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets - Scope

Scope: Spatial proportion of the target affected within ten years given continuation of current circumstances and trends• Very High: The stress is likely to be pervasive in its scope, affecting

the target across all or most (71-100%) of its occurrence/population. • High: The stress is likely to be widespread in its scope, affecting the

target across much (31-70%) of its occurrence/population. • Medium: The stress is likely to be restricted in its scope, affecting

the target across some (11-30%) of its occurrence/population. • Low: The stress is likely to be very narrow in its scope, affecting the

target across a small proportion (1-10%) of its occurrence/population.

Threats

Your Turn: Which of these stresses has a larger scope?

Conservation Target: Forest

• Habitat conversion – loss of 10% of the forest due to conversion to agricultural land

• Change in composition of the vegetation in 50%

of the forest, due to extraction of non-timber forest products

Threats

1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets - Severity

Within the scope, the level of damage given continuation of current circumstances and trends.

– For ecosystems: degree of destruction or degradation of the target within the scope.

– For species: degree of reduction of the target population within the scope.

Threats

1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets - Severity

Severity - Within the scope, the level of damage given continuation of current circumstances and trends.

• Very High: Within the scope, the stress is likely to destroy or eliminate the target, or reduce its population by 71-100% within ten years or three generations.

• High: Within the scope, the stress is likely to seriously degrade/reduce the target or reduce its population by 31-70% within ten years or three generations.

• Medium: Within the scope, the stress is likely to moderately degrade/reduce the target or reduce its population by 11-30% within ten years or three generations.

• Low: Within the scope, the stress is likely to only slightly degrade/reduce the target or reduce its population by 1-10% within ten years or three generations.

Threats

Your Turn: Which of these stresses has higher severity?

Conservation Target: Forest

• Habitat conversion – loss of 10% of the forest due to conversion to agricultural land

• Change in composition of the vegetation in 50%

of the forest, due to extraction of non-timber forest products

Threats

1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets Threats

In Diagram view, double-click on target and go to Stress tab

Select a stress

Rate the stress for scope and severity

2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses

Step 2: For each stress, rate the effect of each relevant direct threat (source of stress) for:

– Contribution– Irreversibility

Conservation Target

Direct Threat (Source of

Stress)Stress

Contribution

Irreversibility

Threats

2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses -Contribution

Contribution – The expected contribution of the source, acting alone, to the full expression of a stress, given the continuation of current circumstances.

Threats

2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses -Contribution

Contribution – The expected contribution of the source, acting alone, to the full expression of a stress, given the continuation of current circumstances. • Very High: The threat is a very large contributor to the particular stress. • High: The threat is a large contributor to the particular stress. • Medium: The threat is a moderate contributor to the particular stress. • Low: The threat is a low contributor to the particular stress.

Threats

2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses -Irreversibility

Irreversibility - The degree to which the effects of a threat can be reversed and the target affected by the threat restored.

vs.

Threats

2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses -Irreversibility

Irreversibility - The degree to which the effects of a threat can be reversed and the target affected by the threat restored. • Very High: The effects of the threat cannot be reversed and it is very

unlikely the target can be restored, and/or it would take more than 100 years to achieve this (e.g., wetlands converted to a shopping center).

• High: The effects of the threat can technically be reversed and the target restored, but it is not practically affordable and/or it would take 21-100 years to achieve this (e.g., wetland converted to agriculture).

• Medium: The effects of the threat can be reversed and the target restored with a reasonable commitment of resources and/or within 6-20 years (e.g., ditching and draining of wetland).

• Low: The effects of the threat are easily reversible and the target can be easily restored at a relatively low cost and/or within 0-5 years (e.g., off-road vehicles trespassing in wetland).

Threats

Your Turn: Which of these threats has the highest irreversibility?

For habitat fragmentation (stress) of a forest ecosystem (conservation target):• A logging road• Selective logging done by helicopter• Residential development

Threats

2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses Threats

Increased Groundwater Extraction has a VH contribution to Altered Hydrology, with H Irreversibility

Use Threat Rating mode to rate the effect of threats on stresses

How to Do a Stress-based Threat Rating

1. Rate impact of stresses on targets2. Rate effect of threats on stresses3. Review and discuss summary ratings4. Show highest stresses on overall

conceptual model

Threats

3-5-7 Rule:3 highs = 1 Very High

5 Mediums = 1 High7 Lows = Medium

2 Prime Rule:Need at least 2 of a level

Threats3. Review and Discuss Summary Ratings

Threats3. Review and Discuss Summary Ratings

Once you have rated all stresses

and direct threats, Miradi will indicate the summary values for threats in the

Diagram view

3. Review and Discuss Summary Ratings Threats

4. Show Highest Stresses on Model Threats

In Diagram view, double-click on a target and select “Stresses” tabSelect a stress

Select “Stress Visibility” (slightly different on PC – this is on a Mac)

Select “Show Stress”

4. Show Highest Stresses on Model Threats

Include stresses needed to understand the relationship between the Direct Threat and Target. Also, you may want to include the highest stresses. But don’t clutter the conceptual model with too many stresses.

• Rates the scope and severity of stress to target and the contribution and irreversibility of each direct threat to stress

Threats

Stress-based threat rating:

Key Points to Introduce this Step

• Rates the scope, severity, irreversibility of direct threat only

Simple threat rating:

There are two common types of threat ratings:

ThreatsKey Points to Introduce this Step

• A common threat taxonomy exists, and helps to bring clarity to the discussion

• Miradi uses a rule-based system to develop ratings