1C. Identify and Rate Critical Threats (Stress-based Threat Rating) Conservation Coaches Network Workshop Presentation
Feb 22, 2016
1C. Identify and Rate Critical Threats
(Stress-based Threat Rating)
Conservation Coaches Network Workshop Presentation
Adaptive Management Workshop Presentations
1A-1B. Team, Scope, Vision1B. Conservation Targets1B. Viability Assessment
2A-1. Strategy Selection2A-2. Results Chains2A-3. Goals and Objectives
2B. Monitoring Plan
1C. Threat Rating
1D. Conceptual Models
Conceptualize Threats
This Presentation
• What are Stresses and Direct Threats• How to Identify Stresses and Direct Threats• How to Do a Stress-Based Threat Rating
Threats
What is a Stress?
• Stress: an impaired key ecological attribute (KEA) of a target. A single stress can be caused by multiple direct threats.
Threats
Target Type of KEA Key Ecological Attribute (KEA)
Stress (Altered KEA)
Forest Size Size of primary forest
Habitat loss
Forest Landscape Context
Connectivity of primary forest
Habitat fragmentation
Wetland Condition Species composition
Altered species composition
Shorebirds Condition Reproductive rate Reduced reproductive success
Direct Threats: Human-induced actions or events that will directly degrade one or more conservation targets
Direct threats are: – usually human activities, but they can be– natural phenomena altered by human activities or
whose impact is increased by human activities (e.g., disease transmitted by livestock)
Coral Reefs
Diver and anchor damage
Legal but unsustainable fishing by local
fishermen
What is a Direct Threat? Threats
Examples of Direct Threats
Photo: Adrian Jones, IAN Image Library
Operation of Dams
Unsustainable harvestUnsustainable Logging
Incompatible Livestock Grazing
Residential Development
Exotic/Invasive Species
Threats
IUCN-CMP Classification of Direct Threats
Available at www.conservationmeasures.org
Salafsky et al. (2008). Conservation Biology
Threats
Difference Between Direct Threat & Stress?
• Stress: an impaired key ecological attribute of a target. A single stress can be caused by multiple direct threats.
Examples: habitat fragmentation, high mortality
• Direct Threat: Human-induced actions or events that will directly degrade one or more conservation targets. A direct threat has at least one actor associated with it.
Example: residential development
Threats
Direct Threat Example Stress(es) Example Target Affected
Dams Altered stream flowsReduced reproductive success of fish
Rivers and streamsMigratory fish
Unsustainable Logging
Erosion (Rivers and streams)SedimentationHabitat destructionHabitat fragmentation
Rivers and streamsRivers and streams, EstuariesForestsForests
Illegal Hunting Altered population structure Monkeys, Rhinos
Unsustainable Agriculture
SedimentationHabitat destructionHabitat fragmentation
Rivers and streams, EstuariesForests, Grasslands, WetlandsForests, Grasslands, Wetlands
Climate change
Coral bleachingRising sea levelsReduced rainfall
Coral reefsShoreline habitatForests, Grasslands, Deserts
Difference Between Direct Threat & Stress? Threats
• Direct threat: Human-induced actions or events that will directly degrade one or more conservation targets. A direct threat has at least one actor associated with it.
Example: residential development
• Indirect threat/contributing factor (short definition): an economic, cultural, societal, or institutional factor which allows or encourages direct threats to occur
Examples: need for income, lack of knowledge, low capacity
Difference Between Direct & Indirect Threats? Threats
This Presentation
• What are Stresses and Direct Threats• How to Identify Stresses and Direct Threats• How to Do a Stress-Based Threat Rating
Threats
How Do You Identify Stresses and Direct Threats?
1. For one conservation target, review the key ecological attributes (KEAs).
– Target: Riparian habitat– KEAs: Spatial extent, connectivity of riparian corridor
2. Identify stresses by determining which KEAs are altered. Stresses = altered KEAs.
– Stresses: Habitat conversion, habitat fragmentation
3. Identify the direct threats causing the stresses. Direct threats = sources of stress.
– Direct threats: Development, Agriculture, Grazing
4. Link direct threats to targets5. Link direct threats to relevant stresses
Our Example:Swan Coastal Plain Wetlands
Adapted from WWF Australia’s Wetlands Watch Project
Threats
1. Review KEAs for One Target
KEAs for Seasonally Flooded Wetlands:• Area of seasonally flooded wetlands of high
conservation value (HCV)• Vegetative community structure• Water level fluctuations
Threats
2. Identify Stresses (Altered KEAs)
KEAs and Stresses for Seasonally Flooded Wetlands:• Area of seasonally flooded wetlands of high
conservation value (HCV) => Habitat loss• Vegetative community structure => Altered
vegetative species composition• Water level fluctuations => Altered hydrology
Threats
2. Identify Stresses (Altered KEAs) Threats
Inputting Stresses into MiradiDouble-click on the target and select the “Stresses” tab
3. Identify Direct Threats Causing Stresses Threats
Stresses and Direct Threats Affecting Seasonally Flooded Wetlands:
Stresses Direct ThreatsHabitat loss • Illegal clearing of brush by landowners
• Clearing for (conversion to) residential & infrastructure development
• OvergrazingAltered vegetative species composition
• Invasive weeds• Overgrazing
Altered hydrology • Increased groundwater extraction• Climate change (reduced rain)
2. Identify Stresses – Another Example
KEAs and Stresses for Blue-Billed Ducks• Reproductive success => Reduced reproductive
success• Area of high conservation value habitat =>
Habitat loss
Threats
3. Identify Direct Threats – Another Example Threats
Stresses and Direct Threats Affecting Blue-billed Ducks:Stresses Direct ThreatsReduced reproductive success
• Pesticides from agriculture
Habitat loss • Clearing for residential & infrastructure development
• Illegal clearing of brush by landowners
4. Identify Direct Threats & Link Them Threats
Invasive weeds
4. Identify Direct Threats & Link Them Threats
Illegal clearing by landowners
Clearing for residential & infrastructure
Increased groundwater
extraction
4. Identify Direct Threats & Link Them Threats
Climate change
Overgrazing
Pesticides from
agriculture
4. Identify Direct Threats & Link Them Threats
When to Lump or Split Direct Threats
Lump direct threats if:• they are similar and are caused by the same actors• they will require similar strategies• you have a lot of direct threatsExample: all unsustainable fishing practices used by local fishers
Split if direct threats:• are different and are caused by different actors• will require different strategiesExample: unsustainable fishing practices used by local, small-scale fishers vs. illegal practices used by industrial fishing boats
Threats
Threats5. Link Direct Threats to Relevant Stresses
Cursor is placed on the box linking Invasive Weeds (direct threat) to Seasonally Flooded Wetlands (target)Check-box used to link
Invasive Weeds (direct threat) to Altered vegetative species composition (stress)
Select Threat Ratings
Select Stress-based Threat Rating Mode
Threats5. Link Direct Threats to Relevant Stresses
Repeat for all direct threats. In this case, Increased Groundwater Extraction (direct threat) affects Seasonally Flooded Wetlands (target)…
…by contributing to Altered Hydrology (stress)
This Presentation
• What are Stresses and Direct Threats• How to Identify Stresses and Direct Threats• How to Do a Stress-Based Threat Rating
Threats
Why Rate Threats?
• Limited resources
• Complex situations
• Applying a systematic methdology helps you decide what threats to focus on
Threats
How to Do a Stress-based Threat Rating
1. Rate impact of stresses on targets2. Rate effect of threats on stresses3. Review and discuss summary ratings4. Show highest stresses on overall
conceptual model
Threats
1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets
Step 1: Rate impact of each stress affecting it a target for:
–Scope–Severity
Conservation Target
Direct Threat (Source of
Stress)Stress
Scope
Severity
Threats
1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets - Scope
Spatial proportion of the target affected within ten years given continuation of current circumstances and trends.
– For ecosystems: proportion of the target's
occurrence
– For species: proportion of the target’s population
Threats
1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets - Scope
Scope: Spatial proportion of the target affected within ten years given continuation of current circumstances and trends• Very High: The stress is likely to be pervasive in its scope, affecting
the target across all or most (71-100%) of its occurrence/population. • High: The stress is likely to be widespread in its scope, affecting the
target across much (31-70%) of its occurrence/population. • Medium: The stress is likely to be restricted in its scope, affecting
the target across some (11-30%) of its occurrence/population. • Low: The stress is likely to be very narrow in its scope, affecting the
target across a small proportion (1-10%) of its occurrence/population.
Threats
Your Turn: Which of these stresses has a larger scope?
Conservation Target: Forest
• Habitat conversion – loss of 10% of the forest due to conversion to agricultural land
• Change in composition of the vegetation in 50%
of the forest, due to extraction of non-timber forest products
Threats
1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets - Severity
Within the scope, the level of damage given continuation of current circumstances and trends.
– For ecosystems: degree of destruction or degradation of the target within the scope.
– For species: degree of reduction of the target population within the scope.
Threats
1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets - Severity
Severity - Within the scope, the level of damage given continuation of current circumstances and trends.
• Very High: Within the scope, the stress is likely to destroy or eliminate the target, or reduce its population by 71-100% within ten years or three generations.
• High: Within the scope, the stress is likely to seriously degrade/reduce the target or reduce its population by 31-70% within ten years or three generations.
• Medium: Within the scope, the stress is likely to moderately degrade/reduce the target or reduce its population by 11-30% within ten years or three generations.
• Low: Within the scope, the stress is likely to only slightly degrade/reduce the target or reduce its population by 1-10% within ten years or three generations.
Threats
Your Turn: Which of these stresses has higher severity?
Conservation Target: Forest
• Habitat conversion – loss of 10% of the forest due to conversion to agricultural land
• Change in composition of the vegetation in 50%
of the forest, due to extraction of non-timber forest products
Threats
1. Rate Impact of Stresses on Targets Threats
In Diagram view, double-click on target and go to Stress tab
Select a stress
Rate the stress for scope and severity
2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses
Step 2: For each stress, rate the effect of each relevant direct threat (source of stress) for:
– Contribution– Irreversibility
Conservation Target
Direct Threat (Source of
Stress)Stress
Contribution
Irreversibility
Threats
2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses -Contribution
Contribution – The expected contribution of the source, acting alone, to the full expression of a stress, given the continuation of current circumstances.
Threats
2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses -Contribution
Contribution – The expected contribution of the source, acting alone, to the full expression of a stress, given the continuation of current circumstances. • Very High: The threat is a very large contributor to the particular stress. • High: The threat is a large contributor to the particular stress. • Medium: The threat is a moderate contributor to the particular stress. • Low: The threat is a low contributor to the particular stress.
Threats
2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses -Irreversibility
Irreversibility - The degree to which the effects of a threat can be reversed and the target affected by the threat restored.
vs.
Threats
2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses -Irreversibility
Irreversibility - The degree to which the effects of a threat can be reversed and the target affected by the threat restored. • Very High: The effects of the threat cannot be reversed and it is very
unlikely the target can be restored, and/or it would take more than 100 years to achieve this (e.g., wetlands converted to a shopping center).
• High: The effects of the threat can technically be reversed and the target restored, but it is not practically affordable and/or it would take 21-100 years to achieve this (e.g., wetland converted to agriculture).
• Medium: The effects of the threat can be reversed and the target restored with a reasonable commitment of resources and/or within 6-20 years (e.g., ditching and draining of wetland).
• Low: The effects of the threat are easily reversible and the target can be easily restored at a relatively low cost and/or within 0-5 years (e.g., off-road vehicles trespassing in wetland).
Threats
Your Turn: Which of these threats has the highest irreversibility?
For habitat fragmentation (stress) of a forest ecosystem (conservation target):• A logging road• Selective logging done by helicopter• Residential development
Threats
2. Rate Effect of Threats on Stresses Threats
Increased Groundwater Extraction has a VH contribution to Altered Hydrology, with H Irreversibility
Use Threat Rating mode to rate the effect of threats on stresses
How to Do a Stress-based Threat Rating
1. Rate impact of stresses on targets2. Rate effect of threats on stresses3. Review and discuss summary ratings4. Show highest stresses on overall
conceptual model
Threats
3-5-7 Rule:3 highs = 1 Very High
5 Mediums = 1 High7 Lows = Medium
2 Prime Rule:Need at least 2 of a level
Threats3. Review and Discuss Summary Ratings
Threats3. Review and Discuss Summary Ratings
Once you have rated all stresses
and direct threats, Miradi will indicate the summary values for threats in the
Diagram view
3. Review and Discuss Summary Ratings Threats
4. Show Highest Stresses on Model Threats
In Diagram view, double-click on a target and select “Stresses” tabSelect a stress
Select “Stress Visibility” (slightly different on PC – this is on a Mac)
Select “Show Stress”
4. Show Highest Stresses on Model Threats
Include stresses needed to understand the relationship between the Direct Threat and Target. Also, you may want to include the highest stresses. But don’t clutter the conceptual model with too many stresses.
• Rates the scope and severity of stress to target and the contribution and irreversibility of each direct threat to stress
Threats
Stress-based threat rating:
Key Points to Introduce this Step
• Rates the scope, severity, irreversibility of direct threat only
Simple threat rating:
There are two common types of threat ratings:
ThreatsKey Points to Introduce this Step
• A common threat taxonomy exists, and helps to bring clarity to the discussion
• Miradi uses a rule-based system to develop ratings