1 Health benefits of reducing PM10 through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan June 5, 2007 Jeongim Park.
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1
Health benefits of reducing PM10
through the Seoul Air Quality
Management Plan
June 5, 2007
Jeongim Park
2
Outline
Study Scope and Methods2
3 Premature Deaths–Related Benefits from SAQMP
4
Seoul Air Quality Management Plan (SAQMP)1
Summary and Future Improvements
3
Seoul Metropolitan Area
4
Seoul Metropolitan Area
11.7 %
46.6 %
4 times
44.7 %
46.3 %
Gyeonggi
5
Air Pollution Trends in Seoul
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
0.035
0.040
0.045
0.050
0.055
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Year
ppm
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 ㎍/m³
PM10(㎍/m³)NO₂(ppm)O₃(ppm)SO₂(ppm)
Tokyo
New York
6
SAQMP’s PM10 Goal Statement
7
Special Law for Improving Air Quality in Seoul Metropolitan Area (2004)
You will see the Yellow sea from Namsan, the center of Seoul!
8
Source Policy / Measure Description / Example
Point
Source
Emission trading
Fuel regulation
Emission standard
Voluntary agreement
Emission allowance allocation for large sources
Promotion of low-sulfur fuel
Stricter standards for small industrial sources
Monitoring and assisting voluntary program
Area
Source
Fuel regulation
NOx source management
Demand management
VOCs management
Promotion of low-sulfur fuel and natural gas
Promotion of low-NOx boilers
Eco-building certification
Fugitive VOC regulation for industrial process
On-road vehicle
Emission standard
Clean vehicle
End-of-pipe equipment
Fuel standard
Demand management
Stricter emission standards for new cars
Promotion of electric of hybrid cars
Subsidy for DPF/DOC/SCR installation
Stricter standards for vehicle fuel quality
Congestion charge, parking regulation, upgrading
public transportation service
Off-road vehicle
Emission standard
Fuel regulation
End-of-pipe equipment
Stricter emission standards for new vehicle
Stricter sulfur contents regulation for ship fuels
Subsidy for DPF and SCR installation
SAQMP measures (partial list)
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Emission Reduction Potentials from SAQMP
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Study Goal
To estimate the health benefits from implementing the SAQMP in 2014
PM10 reduction Premature mortality (acute effect)
11
BenMAP Framework
PopulationData
Air QualityMonitoring
Health Functions
ValuationFunctions
GeographicGrid
Definitions
Air QualityModeling
IncidencePrevalence
Data Inputto BenMAP
Data Inputto BenMAP
Results from BenMAP
PopulationEstimates
PopulationExposure
AdverseHealth Effects
Economic Benefits
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Analysis MaterialsSpatial Scope Seoul Metropolitan Area (Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi)
Target pollutant PM10
Population dataAge/sex categorized data of administrative boundaries (National statistics)
Emission data CAPSS 2001 (Provided by Ministry of Environment)
Air Quality data
-Monitoring data in 2001
-MM5/CMAQ modeling data
2014 BAU (Business As Usual)
2014 Control (with SAQMP implemented)
C-R Functions
(acute mortality)
=0.000157(RR=1.015, Seoul, 1999-2004)
=0.000769(RR=1.025, Incheon, 1999-2004)
(long-term effects =0.00463, Krewski et al, 2000)
Baseline incidence death rates in 2005 (0.0050324)
13
Population (year 2001)
9,200 ~
347,780
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PM10 Distribution: 2001 Monitoring
49~88 ug/m3
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Air Quality Modeling : MM5/CMAQ
MM5Meteorology Modeling System
MEPPSEmission Modeling System
MCIPMeteorology-Chemistry
Interface Professor
ECIPEmission-ChemistryInterface Processor
LUPROCLand use Processor
ICON and BCONInitial and Boundary
Condition Processors
JPROCPhotolysis Rate
Processor
Integration of Science Code into Models-3
Fundamentals ofDynamics for CMAQ
Program ControlProcessing
Process Analysis
Aggregation
GoverningEquations
TransportAlgorithms
GoverningEquations
Plume-in GridTreatment
AerosolChemistry and
Dynamics
CloudChemistry and
Dynamics
CMAQ Chemical Transport Model(CTM)
CAPSS, ACE-ASIA EMISSION
MM5(Meteorological Modeling System)
Gas Phasechemistry
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PM10 Distribution : 2001 Modeling
24~106 ug/m3
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PM10 Distribution : 2014 BAU
27~122 ug/m3
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PM10 Distribution : 2014 Control
12~54 ug/m3
19
PM10 (2014 BAU –2014 Control)
15~75 ug/m3
20
Health Impact Functions
CHANGE
in
health effects (Δy)from the baseline
to the control scenario
CHANGE
in
pollution (ΔPM)from the baseline to the control scenario
21
Health EffectsChange
=Air Quality
Change *Effect
Estimate * Incidence * Population
• Concentration Units: ppm, ppb, μg/m3
• Measurements: maximum, average
• Measurement Intervals: hourly, daily, annual
• Data Sources: Air Quality Monitoring data (NIER)Air Quality Modeling (using CAPSS)
Health Effects Change-required data
22
Health EffectsChange
=Air Quality
Change *Effect
Estimate * Incidence * Population
• Pollution Effect Units:- change in health effect rate per μg/m3, ppm, ppb; - unit change in health effect per μg/m3, ppm, ppb
• Measurements Interval: hourly, daily, annual
• Data Sources: epidemiological studies
Health Effects Change-required data
23
Health EffectsChange
=Air Quality
Change *Effect
Estimate * Incidence * Population
• Health Effects Units:• mortality: number of deaths per 100,000; individual risk of death• morbidity: number of new bronchitis cases per 100,000; annual
risk of an asthma attack; number of hospital admissions per 100,000
• Measurements Interval: daily, annual
• Data sources: National Statistical Office; National Health Institutes; Published papers, etc.
Health Effects Change-required data
24
Saved lives from (2014 BAU – 2014 Control)
25
Saved lives from (2014 BAU – 2014 Control)
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Value of Statistical Life (VSL)
Valuation Methods Revealed preference approaches
Hedonic pricing (ex) labor market, property markets Averting behavior (ex) smoke alarms
Stated preference approaches Contingent valuation method: Choice Modeling: Choice experiment(or Conjoint analysis)
Resource Cost techniques Cost of Illness(COI) Human Capital Approach(HCA)
Benefit Transfer The transfer of existing estimates (STUDY CASE) to a new study which is
different from the study for which the values were originally estimated(POLICY CASE)
27
Benefit Transfer
Benefit Transfer MethodVSL(Korea, 2001) = VSL(USA,2000)*Radj
Radj = (ppp(2000)kOREA /ppp(2000)USA )
[per capita GDP(2000)kOREA/per capita GDP(2000)USA]
[GDP deflator(2001)kOREA/GDP deflator(2000)KOREA]
PPP: Purchasing power parity
Point EstimateDistributio
n
P1(scale
parameter)
P2(shape
parameter)
USA(2000,$) 6,324,101 Weibull 5,320,000 1.509588
KOREA(2001,$)
2,361,882 Weibull 1,986,877,239 1.509588
28
Summary
PM10-related health benefits from implementing the SAQMP were analyzed using the BenMAP software
More than 2,000 avoided premature deaths were estimated with putting the SAQMP into action (short-term effects only)
The economic value of the deaths avoided was estimated to $4.8billion.
29
Thank you!!
Health benefits of reducing PM10 through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan
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