1 Health benefits of reducing PM10 through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan June 5, 2007 Jeongim Park.

1

Health benefits of reducing PM10

through the Seoul Air Quality

Management Plan

June 5, 2007

Jeongim Park

2

Outline

Study Scope and Methods2

3 Premature Deaths–Related Benefits from SAQMP

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Seoul Air Quality Management Plan (SAQMP)1

Summary and Future Improvements

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Seoul Metropolitan Area

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Seoul Metropolitan Area

11.7 %

46.6 %

4 times

44.7 %

46.3 %

Gyeonggi

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Air Pollution Trends in Seoul

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

0.030

0.035

0.040

0.045

0.050

0.055

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Year

ppm

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 ㎍/m³

PM10(㎍/m³)NO₂(ppm)O₃(ppm)SO₂(ppm)

Tokyo

New York

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SAQMP’s PM10 Goal Statement

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Special Law for Improving Air Quality in Seoul Metropolitan Area (2004)

You will see the Yellow sea from Namsan, the center of Seoul!

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Source Policy / Measure Description / Example

Point

Source

Emission trading

Fuel regulation

Emission standard

Voluntary agreement

Emission allowance allocation for large sources

Promotion of low-sulfur fuel

Stricter standards for small industrial sources

Monitoring and assisting voluntary program

Area

Source

Fuel regulation

NOx source management

Demand management

VOCs management

Promotion of low-sulfur fuel and natural gas

Promotion of low-NOx boilers

Eco-building certification

Fugitive VOC regulation for industrial process

On-road vehicle

Emission standard

Clean vehicle

End-of-pipe equipment

Fuel standard

Demand management

Stricter emission standards for new cars

Promotion of electric of hybrid cars

Subsidy for DPF/DOC/SCR installation

Stricter standards for vehicle fuel quality

Congestion charge, parking regulation, upgrading

public transportation service

Off-road vehicle

Emission standard

Fuel regulation

End-of-pipe equipment

Stricter emission standards for new vehicle

Stricter sulfur contents regulation for ship fuels

Subsidy for DPF and SCR installation

SAQMP measures (partial list)

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Emission Reduction Potentials from SAQMP

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Study Goal

To estimate the health benefits from implementing the SAQMP in 2014

PM10 reduction Premature mortality (acute effect)

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BenMAP Framework

PopulationData

Air QualityMonitoring

Health Functions

ValuationFunctions

GeographicGrid

Definitions

Air QualityModeling

IncidencePrevalence

Data Inputto BenMAP

Data Inputto BenMAP

Results from BenMAP

PopulationEstimates

PopulationExposure

AdverseHealth Effects

Economic Benefits

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Analysis MaterialsSpatial Scope Seoul Metropolitan Area (Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi)

Target pollutant PM10

Population dataAge/sex categorized data of administrative boundaries (National statistics)

Emission data CAPSS 2001 (Provided by Ministry of Environment)

Air Quality data

-Monitoring data in 2001

-MM5/CMAQ modeling data

2014 BAU (Business As Usual)

2014 Control (with SAQMP implemented)

C-R Functions

(acute mortality)

=0.000157(RR=1.015, Seoul, 1999-2004)

=0.000769(RR=1.025, Incheon, 1999-2004)

(long-term effects =0.00463, Krewski et al, 2000)

Baseline incidence death rates in 2005 (0.0050324)

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Population (year 2001)

9,200 ~

347,780

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PM10 Distribution: 2001 Monitoring

49~88 ug/m3

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Air Quality Modeling : MM5/CMAQ

MM5Meteorology Modeling System

MEPPSEmission Modeling System

MCIPMeteorology-Chemistry

Interface Professor

ECIPEmission-ChemistryInterface Processor

LUPROCLand use Processor

ICON and BCONInitial and Boundary

Condition Processors

JPROCPhotolysis Rate

Processor

Integration of Science Code into Models-3

Fundamentals ofDynamics for CMAQ

Program ControlProcessing

Process Analysis

Aggregation

GoverningEquations

TransportAlgorithms

GoverningEquations

Plume-in GridTreatment

AerosolChemistry and

Dynamics

CloudChemistry and

Dynamics

CMAQ Chemical Transport Model(CTM)

CAPSS, ACE-ASIA EMISSION

MM5(Meteorological Modeling System)

Gas Phasechemistry

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PM10 Distribution : 2001 Modeling

24~106 ug/m3

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PM10 Distribution : 2014 BAU

27~122 ug/m3

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PM10 Distribution : 2014 Control

12~54 ug/m3

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PM10 (2014 BAU –2014 Control)

15~75 ug/m3

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Health Impact Functions

CHANGE

in

health effects (Δy)from the baseline

to the control scenario

CHANGE

in

pollution (ΔPM)from the baseline to the control scenario

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Health EffectsChange

=Air Quality

Change *Effect

Estimate * Incidence * Population

• Concentration Units: ppm, ppb, μg/m3

• Measurements: maximum, average

• Measurement Intervals: hourly, daily, annual

• Data Sources: Air Quality Monitoring data (NIER)Air Quality Modeling (using CAPSS)

Health Effects Change-required data

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Health EffectsChange

=Air Quality

Change *Effect

Estimate * Incidence * Population

• Pollution Effect Units:- change in health effect rate per μg/m3, ppm, ppb; - unit change in health effect per μg/m3, ppm, ppb

• Measurements Interval: hourly, daily, annual

• Data Sources: epidemiological studies

Health Effects Change-required data

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Health EffectsChange

=Air Quality

Change *Effect

Estimate * Incidence * Population

• Health Effects Units:• mortality: number of deaths per 100,000; individual risk of death• morbidity: number of new bronchitis cases per 100,000; annual

risk of an asthma attack; number of hospital admissions per 100,000

• Measurements Interval: daily, annual

• Data sources: National Statistical Office; National Health Institutes; Published papers, etc.

Health Effects Change-required data

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Saved lives from (2014 BAU – 2014 Control)

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Saved lives from (2014 BAU – 2014 Control)

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Value of Statistical Life (VSL)

Valuation Methods Revealed preference approaches

Hedonic pricing (ex) labor market, property markets Averting behavior (ex) smoke alarms

Stated preference approaches Contingent valuation method: Choice Modeling: Choice experiment(or Conjoint analysis)

Resource Cost techniques Cost of Illness(COI) Human Capital Approach(HCA)

Benefit Transfer The transfer of existing estimates (STUDY CASE) to a new study which is

different from the study for which the values were originally estimated(POLICY CASE)

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Benefit Transfer

Benefit Transfer MethodVSL(Korea, 2001) = VSL(USA,2000)*Radj

Radj = (ppp(2000)kOREA /ppp(2000)USA )

[per capita GDP(2000)kOREA/per capita GDP(2000)USA]

[GDP deflator(2001)kOREA/GDP deflator(2000)KOREA]

PPP: Purchasing power parity

Point EstimateDistributio

n

P1(scale

parameter)

P2(shape

parameter)

USA(2000,$) 6,324,101 Weibull 5,320,000 1.509588

KOREA(2001,$)

2,361,882 Weibull 1,986,877,239 1.509588

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Summary

PM10-related health benefits from implementing the SAQMP were analyzed using the BenMAP software

More than 2,000 avoided premature deaths were estimated with putting the SAQMP into action (short-term effects only)

The economic value of the deaths avoided was estimated to $4.8billion.

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Thank you!!

Health benefits of reducing PM10 through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan