Transcript
Joint Committee Print
Economic IndicatorsMAY 1949
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Reportby the Council of Economic Advisers
and printed for the use ofthe Joint Committee on the Economic Report
UNITED STATESGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 194990364
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JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
FRANCIS J. MYERS, PennsylvaniaJOHN J. SPARKMAN, AlabamaPAUL H. DOUGLAS, IllinoisROBERT A. TAFT, OhioRALPH E. FLANDERS, VermontARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
WRIGHT PATMAN, TexasWALTER B. HUBER, OhioFRANK BUCHANAN, PennsylvaniaJESSE P. WOLCOTT, MichiganROBERT F. RICH, PennsylvaniaCHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
FRED E. BERQUIST, Acting Staff DirectorJOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist
To the Members of Congress:As has been stated in previous issues of Economic Indi-
cators, from the time the Joint Committee on the Eco-nomic Report was established its members realized thatone of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful pictureof current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that EconomicIndicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiledmonthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirablyfills this need. While this material was prepared pri-marily for the use of the President, the Council and otherofficials in the executive offices, the Council has made itavailable to the Joint Committee.
Other Members of Congress have also expressed aninterest in being able to obtain a quick picture of currenteconomic facts without having to go through vo-luminous and specialized documents. In addition,businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and repre-sentatives of the press and radio have indicated their
desire for this information. Since nothing containedin these charts and tables is of a confidential nature theyhave urged that the material be made available to thegeneral public.
Accordingly, the Joint Committee has, since last July,provided the Congress and the public with a limitednumber of copies of Economic Indicators as a Committeeprint pending final action on authorizing the publica-tion on a more permanent basis. Since such legislationis still under consideration, the Committee is continuingto issue the report on a monthly basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possibleimprovements in this presentation will always bewelcome.
u-
ss:
Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.
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Letter o Transmitted
Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman,Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with theJoint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicatorsavailable to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council hasfound it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important factsshowing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a betterposition to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote theimprovement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only tothe President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress.Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularlyby the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations withwhom we regularly consult.
We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving widecirculation to this material.
Sincerely yours,
j*x^y^^^ Vice Chairman.
0
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ContentsTHE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET Page
The Nation's Economic Budget 1
PRICESConsumers' Prices 2Wholesale Prices 3Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 4Stock Prices 5
EMPLOYMENTLabor Force 6Employment in Business and Government 7Average Weekly Hours 8Work Stoppages 9
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production 10Production of Selected Durable Manufactures 11Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures 12Weekly ProductionSelected Indicators 13New Construction 14New Housing Starts 15Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 16New Corporate Security Issues 17Inventories and Sales 18Merchandise Exports and Imports 19
PURCHASING POWERNational Income 20Corporate Profits 21Personal Income 22Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving 23Per Capita Income 24Average Hourly Earnings 25Average Weekly Earnings 26Farm Income 27Personal Consumption Expenditures 28Consumer Credit 29
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCEBank Loans and Investments 30Money Supply 31Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public 32
IV
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THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGETA general decline in economic activity during the 1st quarter resulted in about $6 billion (annual rate)decline in gross national product from the level of the 4th quarter. Consumer expenditures and businessinvestment shared in the decline.
1948 , 4th Quarter (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)TOTAL (Gross National Product)
EXCESS OFEXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS ( + )
CONSUMERS Transfer payments
BUSINESS
ZG. 8
I
INTERNATIONAL
GOVERNMENT (Federal, state and local)56.4-^
*" Transfer payments-^
1949, 1st Quarter (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)TOTAL (Gross National Product)$&88&&8sSSSoQOoocCONSUMERS Transfer payments -
;iiiij;!!jiiiiijiji;!;iii;ijii!iii!:ij;ji^Tj?y^ss-'$i^^ '78.o';.'::W:':z.y%%%zj,j>.tf,^
BUSINESS
INTERNATIONAL
GOVERNMENT (Federal, state and local)57. 3 2/
56.3
/ T R A N S F E R PAYMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR E X P E N D I T U R E S OF THE S E P A R A T E ACCOUNTS BUT NOT IN THE TOTAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT.
SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1949, APPENDIX A, AND Jj ABOVE.
CON-SUMERSAVING
EXCESS OFINVESTMENT
EXCESS OFRECEIPTS
CASHDEFICIT
CON-SUMERSAVING
EXCESS OF.INVESTMENT
EXCESS OFRECEIPTS
CASHSURPLUS
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PRICESCONSUMERS' PRICESConsumers' prices rose slightly in March, thus reversing the trend of the previous 5 months. Therise in food prices accounted for roost of the increase.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
160
180
160
120
100
120
1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[1935-39=100]
Period
1939 monthly average1940 monthly average1941 monthly average1942 monthly average1943 monthly average1944 monthly average _ _ _ _1945 monthly average1946 monthly average _ _ _1947 monthly average1948 monthly average1948: March _ _ _
AprilMay _JuneJulvSeptemberOctober. _ _NovemberDecember _ _ __ _
1949: January __ _February _ _March
All items
99.4100.2105. 2116. 5123. 6125. 5128. 4139. 3159. 2171. 2166. 9169. 3170. 5171. 7173. 7174. 5174. 5173. 6172. 2171. 4170. 9169. 0169. 5
Food
95. 296. 6
105. 5123. 9138. 0136. 1139. 1159. 6193. 8210. 2202. 3207. 9210. 9214. 1216. 8216 6215. 2211. 5207. 5205. 0204. 8199. 7201. 6
Apparel
100. 5101. 7106. 3124. 2129. 7138. 8145. 9160. 2185. 8198. 0196. 3196. 4197. 5196. 9197. 1199. 7201. 0201. 6201. 4200. 4196. 5195. 1193. 9
Rent
104. 3104. 6106.2108. 5108. 0108. 2108. 3108. 6111. 2117.4116.3116. 3116. 7117.0117.3117. 7118. 5118. 7118. 8119. 5119. 7119. 9120. 1
Fuel, elec-tricity, andrefrigeration
99.099. 7
102.2105. 4107. 7109. 8110. 3112.4121. 1133. 9130.3130. 7131. 8132. 6134. 8136. 8137. 3137. 8137. 9137.8138.2138. 8138. 9
House fur-nishings
101.3100. 5107.3122.2125. 6136.4145. 8159.2184.4195.8194.9194.7193. 6194. 8195. 9196. 3198. 1198. 8198.7198. 6196. 5195. 6193. 8
Miscellane-ous
100.7101. 1104.0110.9115. 8121.3124. 1128.8139. 9149.9146.2147.8147.5147.5150.8152.4152.7153.7153.9154.0154. 1154. 1154. 4
NOTE.Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.Source: Department of Labor.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
WHOLESALE PRICESWholesale prices declined during April, primari ly because of the fal l in industrial prices. Farmand food prices showed litt le change during the month.
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE220
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220
120
100
1942 1943 1944 1945 1948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[1926=100]
Period
1941 monthly average1942 monthly average1946 monthly average
June _ _-1947 monthly average1948 monthly average __ .. .1948: March _ __
April __ _MayJune_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _JulyAugust _ _ _September __ _ _OctoberNovemberDecember
1949: JanuaryFebruaryMarchWeek ended:
Apr. 5121926 __ _ _ _
May 3
All com-modities
87 398. 8
121 1112. 9152. 1165.0161. 4162. 8163. 9166. 2168 7169. 5168. 7165. 2164. 0162. 3160. 6"158 1158. 4158. 0157. 6156. 9156. 1155.2
Farm prod-ucts
82 4105. 9148. 9140. 1181. 2188. 3186. 0186. 7189. 1196. 0195. 2191.0189. 9183. 5180. 8177. 3172. 5168. 3171. 3171. 5171. 1171. 1169, 4168.3
Foods
82. 799. 6
130. 7112. 9168. 7179. 1173. 8176. 7177. 4181. 4188. 3189. 5186. 9178. 2174. 3170. 2165. 8161. 5162. 9164. 7164. 2163. 4162. 4161. 8
Other thanfarm prod-
ucts and foods
89. 095. 5
109. 5105. 6135. 2150. 7147. 7148. 7149. 1149. 5151. 1153. 1153. 3153. 1153. 5153. 0152. 9151. 4150. 8149. 7149. 4148. 4147. 9147. 1
NOTE.The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with themonthly index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit such a comparison.
Source: Department of Labor.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSNeither prices received nor prices paid by farmers showed much change from March 15 to April 15.
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE350
300
250
200
150
MONTHLY AVERAGE
PRICES RECEIVED
PRICES PAID(INCL. INTEREST,TAXES)
I I I M I I I I I I
PARITY RATIO*
PERCENT OF 19(0-14 AVERAGE350
300
250
200
150
100
50
I I I I I M M !1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
1947 1948 1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
PricesPeriod received
by farmers 1
1939 monthly average 951941 monthly average 1241942 monthly average 1 1591943 monthly average 1921944 monthly average 1951945 monthly average 2021946 monthly average 2331947 monthly average 2781948 monthly average 2871948: March 283
April. _ 291May 289June. 295July 301August 293September 290October 277November. 271December 268
1949: January 268February 258March 261April 260
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Prices paid byfarmers (includ-
ing interestand taxes)2
124132150162169172193231249247249250251251251250249247248
248245246246
Parity ratio3
7794106119115117121120115115117116118120117116111110108108105106106
i August 1909-July 1914=100.21910-14= 100.3 Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, ancl taxes,
Source: Department of Agriculture,Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
STOCK PRICESDuring April, industrial and utilities' stock prices registered further slight gains.
PERCENT OF 1935 - 39 AVERAGE175
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE175
1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
125
100
SOURCE . STANDARD AND POOR S CORPORATION. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[1935-39 = 100]
Period
1939 monthly average _ _1941 monthly average1942 monthly average1943 monthly average1944 monthly average1945 monthly average.. - _1946 monthly average1947 monthly average.1948 monthly average1948: March . . _ >
AprilMav-- - - - -J.O, JJune 'JulyAugustSeptember __ _ _OctoberNovember December
1949: JanuaryFebruaryMarchApril
Combinedindex l
94. 280. 069.491. 999. 8
121. 5139. 9123.0124.4116.4124. 6130.2135. 1131.9127. 1125.7127. 8120. 4119. 4121. 0117.2118. 0118. 5
Industrials
94. 880. 471.394. 1
101. 7123. 3143. 4128. 0130. 6121.8130.8136.9142. 7138.9133. 5131. 7134. 3126. 4125. 5127. 3122. 7123. 7124, 2
P^ailroads
74. 770. 666. 188. 7
101.0136. 9143. 0105. 3114. 8105. 2115.2122.6125. 6124. 7119. 7120.4120. 9108. 8105. 8105. 999.697. 497. 1
Utilities
98. 681 061. 382. 189. 9
106. 1120 2102. 996. 393. 096.299. 2
100. 699.597 397.397. 494:292. 994. 294. 495. 396. 1
1 Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
EMPLOYMENTLABOR FORCEUnemployment dropped slightly in April for the second straight month. Nonagricultural employmentdeclined and agricultural employment increased less than seasonally.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS70
60
30
MILLIONS OF PERSONS70
UNEMPLOYMENT
NONAGRICULTURALC I V I L I A N
EMPLOYMENT
40
UNEMPLOYMENTMAGNIFIED SCALE
1939 1944 1946 1947 1948
MONTHLY AVERAGE
E
-
ww$$i--^
_
_
f-^^-___^^^jv>xjy;\Yi^\^^^^^ 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1
10
8
6
4
?
0
SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Period
1941 monthly average___1944 monthly average1945 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average...1948 monthly average..-1948: March
AprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovember _.December
1949: JanuaryFebruary _ _March,April
Total laborforce, in-cludingarmedforces
57, 38065, 89065, 14060, 82061, 60862, 74861, 00561, 76061, 66064, 74065,13564, 51163, 57863, 16663, 13862, 82861, 54661, 89662, 30562, 337
Civilian employment
Total
50, 35053, 96052, 82055, 25058, 02759, 37857, 32958, 33058, 66061,29661,61561, 24560, 31260, 13459, 89359, 43457, 41457, 16857, 64757, 819
In non-agriculturalindustries
41, 25045, 01044, 24046, 93049, 76151, 40550, 48250, 88350, 80051, 89952, 45252, 80151, 59051,50651, 93252, 05950, 65150, 17450, 25449, 999
In agri-culture
9, 1008, 9508,5808, 3208, 2667,9736,8477,4487,8619,3969, 1638,4448,7238. 6277,9617,3756,7636, 9937,3937,820
Armedforces
1,47011, 26011, 2803, 3001,4401, 3071,2361,2361,2381,2611,2931,3251,3661,3911,4141,4531,4681, 5081, 4911,492
Unemploy-ment
5,560670
1,0402,2702, 1412,0642,4402, 1931,7612, 1842,2271,9411,8991,6421,8311,9412,6643, 2213, 1673,016
NOTE.-Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce.Digitized for FRASER
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS AND GOVERNMENTManufacturing employment, particularly in durable goods industries, declined again in March.Employment in other major industry groups changed slightly.
MILLIONS OF WAGEAND SALARY WORKERS12
MILLIONS OF WAGEAND SALARY WORKERS
12
A
NONDURABLEMANUFACTURING'
FINANCE AND SERVICE
GOVERNMENT
TRANSPORTATION ANDPUBLIC UTILITIES
CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION-
V /^"""-MINING'
I j 1 I I I I I I I
10
1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D1947 1948 ' 1949
SOURCE: Depo r tmen t of Laboi
[Thousands of wage and salary workers J
Period
1939 monthly average _ _ _ _ _ _ _1943 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average1948 monthly average. _ _ _ _ _ _ _
1948: FebruaryMarch _ _ _ __ _April-MayJune_ -JulyAugust _ _ _SeptemberOctober _ _November _ _ -December.. _ _
1949: January 2 _ . _ _ _February 2March2, _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Durablemanufac-
turing
4, 35710, 2977, 1808, 0,558, 214
8, 1678,2588, 1648, 1148, 1228, 1658, 1888,2948, 3188,3038, 222
8,0057, 8917, 762
Nondurablemanufac-
turing
5, 7207,0847,3357,8468,063
8,0168,0117, 7867, 7787,9938,0078,2538, 4038, 2798, 1588, 061
7, 8857, 8657,787
Trade
6, 7057, 3228, 8209, 4509, 746
9, 5209, 5989, 5769, 6179, 6709, 6469, 6609, 7339, 889
10, 03410, 381
9, 6259, 5139,529
Finance andservice
4, 6105, 1876, 0166, 2786, 400
6, 4206.4266,4726, 4546, 3896,3996,3836, 3796, 3646, 3646, 346
6, 2576, 2666,331
Government(Federal,
State, local)
3,9876, 0495, 6075, 4505, 658
5,4925, 5465, 5775, 6245, 6075, 6045, 6505, 8015,7895, 7145, 994
5, 7615, 7595, 762
Transporta-tion andpublic
utilities
2,9123, 6194,0234, 0594, 065
4,0194,0323,9744,0424, 1054, 1364, 1394,0924, 0914,0664, 066
3,9773, 9573, 938
Contractconstruc-
tion
1, 1501,5671,6611,9212,063
1, 7311,8051,9332,0522, 1732,2192,2532,2392,2062, 1622,079
1,9061,8241,824
Mining
845917852911925
914924817935950922952948941938939
924922915
1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending
nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-ernployed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from thistable not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which includeproprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; andwhich are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
2 Preliminary estimate.Source: Department of Labor.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
HOUR
50
45
40
35
30
25
0
50
45
40
35
30
25
0
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURSThe overage workweek in manufacturing industries fell to a postwar low of 38.9 hours in March, as furthercutbacks were made in overtime.S PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIESMONTHLY AVERAGE
/\J
. \ _
i i i i i t i i i
i r *
1 1 l i 1 l 1 l I 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 I 1 1 l l
~"
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
/x./ ^/
s
'T7. , , , ,
\
\l\^vrif\ j ,.^v*11
1
\
50
45
40
35
30
25
0
50
45
40
35
30
25
040 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
RETAIL TRADEMONTHLY AVERAGE
\
1 1 1 1 1 1 I I 1
*^~~\
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
*^r
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
^
1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
/^-S
_ ____^--_______
i i i i i i i i i
^ *.
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
^~" >/]
1 i 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
^
1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1
4O 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Hours per week, selected industries]
Period
1939 monthly average1941 monthly average. .1944 monthly average1945 monthly average1946 monthly average - .1947 monthly average1948 monthly average2 *1948: February _ . . _.
MarchAprilMay__JuneJulyAugust _ _ - _SeptemberOctober _ . _ _NovemberDecember2
1949: January 2 . _ . . .. .February 2 _ _March 2
All manu-facturingindustries
37. 740. 645. 243. 440. 440. 340. 140. 240. 440. 139. 940. 239.840. 139. 840. 039. 840. 039. 439. 438 9
Retail trade
43.042. 540. 340. 340. 540.240. 140. 039. 839. 839. 940. 340.841.040.239.739. 540. 240. 040.0
Bituminouscoal mining
27. 131. 143.442.341. 640.637. 738. 740. 63
27. 040.339.934.239.437. 938.637. 138. 539. 338.0
Buildingconstruction l
32. 634. 839. 639.038. 137.637. 336. 436. 936. 737.037. 937.837.837. 637.336. 437. 837. 036.4
1 Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.2 Preliminary estimate.3 Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Source: Department of Labor.
8Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
WORK STOPPAGESThe rise in man-days lost in March was caused chiefly by the coal miners1 "two-week holiday". Other minordisputes also contributed to the increase.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLEI 5
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE15
1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 194 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D1947 1948 1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. "COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
1939 monthly average1941 monthly average1942 monthly average1943 monthly average1944 monthly average. _1945 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average1948 monthly average l
1948: February _March _ __AprilMay _JuneJuly .AugustSeptemberOctoberNovember,December _ _
1949: January 1February1March l _
Man-daysidle(thousands)
1 4841 921
3491 125
7273 1699 6672 8832 842
9136 4407 4104 0802 2202 6702 1002, 5402 0601 910
713
800650
3 600
Man-days idleas percent of
estimated avail-able working
time
0 33
. 12
. 15
1. 4. 44
1. 8
1 0. 6. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 5
1 Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONIndustrial production was down about 3% in March as a result of lower output of nondurable manufacturesand curtailed mining activities. Preliminary April data indicate declines in both durables and nondurables andsome recovery in mining.
250 - 250
200 - 200
150 - 150
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1935-39 monthly average.1943 monthlv average1945 monthly average1946 monthlv average1947 monthly average. _1948 monthly average
1948- MarchApril _ _ _ _MayJune -JulyAugustSeptember _OctoberNovemberDecember _ _ _ _
1949* JanuaryFebruaryMarch * __April *
Indexes, 1935-39=100
Totalindustrial
production
100239203170187192
191188192192186191192195195192
191189184179
Manufactures
Total
100258214177194198
200195197198192197199202201199
198196193186
Durablegoods
100360274192220225
229217221222219223225231229231-
227226223216
Nondura-ble goods
100176166165172177
177177178179169177178179178173
175173168161
Minerals
100132137134149155
142147162159153159156158161156
149148133143
Points in total index,1935-39 average for total =100
Manufactures
Durablegoods
38136104738385
87828484838485878787
86868482
Nondura-ble goods
478378778183
83838384798283848381
828180
- 75
Minerals
152021212324
22222524232424242524
23222022
Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLEMANUFACTURESIron and steel output reached a new al l - t ime high in March. Lumber production also increased butmachinery production dropped sharply.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
MONTHLY AVERAGE
IRON AND STEEL
150
100 1 i i I I i I i i i
250LUMBER AND PRODUCTS
MONTHLY AVERAGE
40 42 44- 46 48 40 42 44 46 48 1949
250
200
MACHINERY
I 0 * 1 * 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 42 44 46 48
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
1947 1948 1949
300
NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTSMONTHLY AVERAGE
100 1 I I t I I I I I40 42 44 46 48
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1939 monthly average1940 monthly average _ _ _ _ _1941 monthly average _ _1942 monthly average _ _ _ _ _ _1943 monthlv average1944 monthly average _ _1945 monthly average1946 monthly average __1947 monthly average1948 monthly average _ _ _ _1Q48* February
MarchApril _ _ _ _ _MayJune _ _ _JulyAugust _ __ _SeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
1949: January _Februarv 1March l _
Iron andsteel
114147186199208206183150195208
203207177208208201207214221223222
228232234
Lumber andproducts
106116134134129125109131143145
150151145142140142148143147145143
129123128
Machinery
104136221340443439343240276277
284283275273277269271273277277275
268262251
Nonferrousmetals andproducts
113139191214267259204157187193
199201200196194185186192192187184
183186187
1 Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PERCEf
300
200
100
0
400
300
200
100
0
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLEMANUFACTURESDroduction of textiles and products, chiefly wool and rayon, decreased about 10% in Marchj industrialchemicals also declined.
IT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
j~^i I i i ' i i i i i
-^ p~
1 . 11 1 1 I I 1 1 It 1 1 I I ! 1 1 1 ! ! I ! 1
N
1 l'l I 1 1 1 ! 1 ! 140 42 44 46 48 1947 1948. 1949
MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS
s~-i i i i i t i i i
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 I ! 1
40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
300
200
100
0
400
300
200
100
0
PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
A/J^i i i i j 1 i t i
s
^x^
1 ! 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 ^
1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1
K
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 140 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949
CHEMICAL PRODUCTSMONTHLY JLAVERAGE j\
/
1 1 1 I I I 1 I I
""* i..
1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
**> *-
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II
X
1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1
40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Period
193539 monthly average1943 monthly average1945 monthly average -1946 monthly average .1947 monthly average1948 monthly average _1948: February
MarchAprilMayJuneJuly .AugustSeptember .OctoberNovember _December _ _
1949: January _ _ _February ]March1 _
Textiles andproducts
100153146162163169
179175174176174154166168167164156
160157142
Petroleumand coalproducts
100185235173193218
215211213220221217222207217227230
228222220
Manufac-tured foodproducts
100145151150157159
160158157159163160154163161159158
159161162
Chemicalproducts
100384284236251254
252250249249256251259257255257257
257250242
1 Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
12Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORSSteel production in April dropped just below the all-time peak rate reached in March while motor vehiclesreached the highest rate since 1937.
MILLIONS OF TONS3
1949
STEEL
'1947
I I l I I I IF M A M J A S 0 N D
MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS3.0
BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS7.0
ELECTRIC POWER
1949
I i | | I
THOUSANDS160
120
F M A M J J A S O N
A S 0 N D
SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
Weekly average:1947 - -1948
Week ended:1948- Apr 3
1 0 _ _ - - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _172 4 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
May 1 _8
1949- Apr 29 , _ _ _ _ _
1623 - _ - _ - - -- - -30
May 7 _ -
Steel(thousands of
net tons)
1, 6371, 700
1, 5921, 5211, 2851,4421, 5611, 640
1, 8401, 8211, 8291, 8141, 7971, 794
Electric power,by utilities(millions of
kilowatt-hours)
4, 8215, 300
5, 0375,0335, 0875,0275, 0425 0875 3785, 3605, 3435, 3265, 304
Bituminouscoal
(thousands ofshort tons) l
2,0081,906
355413
1, 3061,9522, 3352, 122
1, 9321,8801, 9081, 8931,922
Cars andtrucks
(number)
90, 860100, 670
99, 90197, 31199. 567
101, 66197, 40979, 785
113, 784126, 165126, 521134, 706129, 457121, 845
1 Daily average for week.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Auto-motive Reports.
1Q
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NEW CONSTRUCTIONConstruction activity continued its seasonal increase in April, reaching a total ot $1.4 billion. Publicconstruction increased more than private, bringing the two categories back into more normalrelationship.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS2,OOO
\I I\
. \
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS2,000
1939 1942 1944 1946 1947 1948
^INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1,500
1,000
M A M J J
1948O N D J F M A M J J A S
1949
C O U N C I L OF E C O N O M I C ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Period
1939 monthly average _ _ _ _1942 monthly average1944 monthly average _ _1946 monthly average _ -1947 monthly average1948 monthly average1948: Februarv _ _. _ _
MarchAprilMay__ - -j - -JuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctober _ _NovemberDecember
1949: January _ _FebruaryMarch 2 . _ _ADH12
Total newconstruction
5261, 118
345871
1, 1941, 5651,0491, 2261,3781, 5721,754
, 874,934, 901,814, 646,447
1,2691, 1481,2481,368
Private construction
Totalprivate
317251152688932
1,214875
1,0011,0991, 2221,3481,4231,4541,4271,3551, 2561, 129
977880928987
Residential(nonfarm)
17611045
265438602410490550625682707720707670615547450375400440
Other
141141107422493612465511549597666716734720685641582527505528547
Federal,State, and
local 1
208867193184262351174225279350406451480474459390318292268320381
1 Includes public residential construction.2 Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NEW HOUSING STARTSAbout 62,000 new permanent dwelling units were started in March. While this is 12,000 less thanMarch 1948, it represents a normal seasonal increase from the lower level at which the year started.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS125
THOUSANDS OF UNITS125
50
25
M A M
SOURCE'- DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
Month
JanuaryFebruary _ _ _MarchApril _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _MayJuneJuly _ _ _AugustSeptember. _ _ _ _ _ _ October- _November _ _ _December.
Total _ _ _ _ _ _Monthly average
New nonfarm units started
1947
39, 30042, 80056, 00067, 10072, 90077, 20081, 10086, 30093, 80094, 00079, 70058, 800
849, 00070,750
1948
53, 50050, 10076, 40099, 500
100, 30097, 80095, 00086, 60082, 20073, 40063, 60052, 900
931, 30077, 600
1949
1 50, 0001 46, 0001 62, 000
1 Preliminary.
Source: Department of Labor.
15Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANTAND EQUIPMENTSEC-Commerce survey made in January shows that nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment in2nd quarter of 1949 are expected to be slightly lower than in same quarter of 1948. It also shows that substantialdeclines in all fields except electric and gas utilities and mining are anticipated in 2nd half of this year.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS25
ANN UAL TOTALS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS25
1939 1941 1945
TRANSPORTATION ANDELECTRIC AND GASI FUTILITIES
10
* NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION.
SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Millions of dollars, annual rates', not adjusted for seasonal]
Period
1939 -19411945 _ _19461947. . _ _194819493_ __1947: First quarter
Second quarter. _ .Third quarterFourth quarter _ _ ,
1948: First quarter _ _Second quarter _ _Third quarterFourth quarter _ ..
1949: First quarter3 _Second quarter 3_Second half 3 . __
Total i
5,2008, 1906,630
12, 04016, 18019, 23018, 31012, 64015, 76016, 56019, 76016, 68019, 28019, 32021, 64018, 72019, 12017, 700
Manufac-turing
1,9303,4003,2105,9107,4608,3407,2405,8007,4007,4809,1607,2008,5608,3609,2807,7607,4406,880
Mining
380680440560690800820600640720840720800800880720760900
Transportation
Railroad
280560550570910
1,3201,450
640880920
1,2001,0801,2401,3201, 6401,5601, 6401, 300
Other
280340320660800700650720920800760720760680680640720620
Electric andgas utilities
480710630
1,0401,9002,6803, 1301,3201,8002,0002,4802,0002,5602,7603,4002,8803, 1603,240
Commercialand miscel-
laneous 2
1,8502,4901,4803,3004,4305,3905,0103,6004, 1204, 6405,3604,9605,3605,4405, 7605, 1605,4404,720
1 Excludes agriculture.2 Includes trade, service, finance, and communication.3 Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.NOTE.These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Com-
merce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged tocurrent expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and otherdata.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).Digitized for FRASER
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUESTotal proceeds from new corporate security issues fell heavily in the 1st quarter reflecting a decline in bothfixed and working capital financing.
B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
3.0
2 . 5
QUARTERLY AVERAGE
i11
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS3 . O
1939 1943 1946 1947 1948
SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Millions of dollars]
Period
1939 quarterly average1943 quarterly average1945 quarterly average1946 quarterly average1947 quarterly average _ _ _ _ _1948 quarterly average 2
1947: Third quarterFourth quarter __
1948: First quarter ..Second quarter.- _Third quarterFourth quarter
1949: First quarter 2
Estimatednet pro-
ceeds
529287
1,4751,6891,6171,604
1, 3742,3111,6141,6631,2671,873
1,057
Proposed uses of net proceeds
New money
Total
8177
270820
1, 1481, 392
8842,0001,4001,3531,0451,767
851
Plant andequipment
4335
159529852
1,035692
1,654
8451,080
7641,451
699
Workingcapital
3942
111291296357192347
555274281316152
Retirementof debt and
stock *
448210
1, 206869469212
490310214309221105206
1 Includes small amount for other purposes.2 Preliminary (estimate.NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source; Securities and Exchange Commission.Digitized for FRASER
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BILL
20
1 0
0
BILL
40
30
20
1 0
0
INVENTORIES AND SALESThe book value of manufacturers' inventories showed the first sizeable decrease since the war,as sales rose seasonally. Department store sales on a seasonally adjusted basis declined again,though less rapidly than in January or February.
ONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
WHOLESALE
/rjjj^ *-* .^...-^ INVEf
i i i i i i i i i
L
T(
ES
ixT"-***JRIES
i I i l i 1 l l i i i 1 1 1 t I 1 i 1 1 1 1
SX*
I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949
IONS OF DOLLARS
MANUFACTURINGMONTHLY AVERAGE
INVEf
y
,/7x/ s//i i i i i i i i i
JT
L
DRIES
\ 1). ......I
IS
,M l . l l l , , ,
^~
l . . I l l . . 1 II
V
! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1
20
1 0
0
PERCE
400
300
200
1 00
0
RETAILMONTHLY AVERAGE
INVEI^yj?' s
y '^y\t
i i i | | i | | i
T(
L
s
)RIES
_ \ ....,7 ''
1 1 1 II ! M I 1 1
EASONALLY ADJUSTED
. ""
1 1 M 1 I 1 1 1 II
>
1 1 1 M 1 II 1 I 1
40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949
IT OF 1935-1939 AVERAGE
DEPARTMENT STORES
/y-
//INVEt^
{&*
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1
^LE
TC
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
:sv .--vr^-s^
Jy Vr-
)RIES
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 I
w \ ,v
I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
X
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 1
40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949 40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949
50URCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
1939 _ .19411943 .19451946 _ _194719481948- March .
AprilMav-JuneJuly.AugustSeptember _October . . _ . _November cT)p,r,fvrr\bfir 6
1949 1 January 6February 6March 6 _
Wholesale 1
Inventories 8 Sales 4Retail2
Inventories 3 Sales 4Manufacturing *
Inventories 3 Sales 4
Millions of dollars
3,2004, 1513,5774,2165,8237,5458,3157,8697,7777,8017,9537,9308, 1008,2438,4008,5078,3158,5278,5678,453
2, 5053,6504,3304,7776, 1387,3047,8677,7267,6527,3897,7667,7968,1618,2868,3768,2428, 1967, 1636,8027,483
5,5027,6207, 3507,502
11,04912, 95314, 55614, 04013, 90713, 95114, 06514, 08014, 14514, 53114, 57614, 77914, 55614, 08513, 93414, 049
3,5044,6245,3106,3878, 3999,860
10, 78410, 65810, 89110, 62010, 86210, 85710, 89310, 96810, 89410, 77111, 06210, 61510, 58810, 608
11,51617, 02419, 89717, 92423, 43528, 02031, 76629, 06429, 16129, 43729, 72730, 23630, 42930, 71030, 84831,22531, 76631, 99832, 06531, 700
5, 1128, 172
12, 60312, 37112, 02015, 67117, 59318, 11717, 22916, 77717, 87116, 40318, 16918, 78118, 80717, 98718, 19516, 85916, 42717, 700
Department stores
Inventories Sales
1935-39=100, seasonallyadjusted 6
102131155166213255292312308297285275268275283303305285286293
106133168207264286302284306311312316312312306287310287274270
1 Not adjusted for seasonal variation.1 Adjusted for seasonal variation.
5 Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for
month and retail book value of inventories, end of period.1 Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
3 Book value, end of period.4 Monthly average for year and total
for month.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTSBoth exports and imports increased about 12 percent in March, exceeding average 1948 levels.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600
1,400 -
1,200
1,000 -
800
600 -
400
200 -
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1600
- 1,400
1,200
- 1,000
800
- 600
400
~ 200
1936-38 1943 O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D1949
* RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS.** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS.SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Period
1936-38 monthly average1943 monthly average1945 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average1948 monthly average1948: January
February _MarchApril _ _ _ _ _ _ _May~.JuneJuly,August --SeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember. . _ _
1949: Januarv _ _FebruaryMarch _
Exports 1
2471 080
877849
1 2781, 0511,0921, 0861, 1381, 1201, 1021, 0141,020
986926
1, 020819
1, 2841 0861 0291 152
Imports *
207282346410478589545582666528549616558598558597550721
589568632
Excess ofexports
40798531439801461546504473592553398461387368423269563497461520
1 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.1 Recorded general merchandise imports.
Souroeg: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.
19Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PURCHASING POWERNATIONAL INCOMENational income declined in the 1st quarter of 1949 but was still above the rates for the first threequarters of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS250
ANNUAL TOTALS
150
100.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS250
200
1939 1944 1946 1947- 1948
CORPORATE PROFITS ANDINVENTORY VALUATIONADJUSTMENT
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except as noted). COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Period
193919441945 _ _ _19461947__ _ _ _ _1948 l
1947: Third quarterFourth quarter _
1948: First quarterSecond quarterThird quarter, _Fourth quarter *
1949: First Quarter2 _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Totalnationalincome
72. 5182.4181.7179.3202. 5224.9
Compensa-tion of
employees
47. 8121. 1122. 9117. 3127. 5139. 4
Proprietors'and rental
income
14.734. 136.041.846.050. 9
Net interest
4.23. 13.03.44.34. 9
Corporate profits and inventoryvaluation adjustment
Total
5.824.019. 816. 824. 729.8
Profitsbeforetaxes
6.524.320.421. 829.832.8
Inventoryvaluation
adjustment-0.7-.3-.6
-5.0-5. 1-3.0
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted200.6212.8213. 9222. 3228. 2(2) 235.3229.0
127. 6132.2134.0136.3142.4144. 7142. 5
44.448.649. 951.650. 651.449.6
4. 44.54. 74.85.05.25.3
24. 327. 525.329.630.2(2) 34.031. 6
29. 132.430.532. 134.0(2) 34. 429. 6
-4.8-4. 9-5.3-2.5-3.9-.4
4-2.01 Preliminary estimates.2 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CORPORATE PROFITSCorporate profits dropped in the 1st quarter of 1949, reflecting a declinein sales and prices.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
PROFITS BEFORE TAXES"
DIVIDEND PAYMENTSXX#:*
PROFITS> AFTER
TAXES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).
[Billions of dollars]
Period
1929. .19391943 _ 19461947 . ... _.1948
1947: Third quarter -Fourth quarter __ _ _
1948: First quarterSecond quarterThird quarterFourth quarter 1. _ _ _ _. _
1949: First quarter l
Corporateprofits
before taxes
9.86. 5
24.521.829.832.2
Corporatetax
liability
1.41.5
14.29.0
11.712.5
Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.45.0
10.412.818.119.7
Dividendpayments
5.83.84.55.66.97.8
Undistributedprofits
2.61.25.97.2
11.211.9
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
29. 132.430. 532. 134.034. 429. 6
11.412.711. 812.513.313. 611,8
17.719.718. 719.620. 820. 817.8
6.97.17.47.47.78. 38.7
10.812.611.312.213. 112. 59. 1
1 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment,taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
See p. 20 for profits before
21
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income dropped in February as a result of decreased employment and lower farm income. PreliminaryMarch data indicate that income from salaries and wages dropped again.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS2 5 0
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS2 5 0
2 00
I 50
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME
SAL ARIES, WAGES, ETC.
I I I ! 1 ! IJ F . M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D939 944 946 1947 1948
TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASHING STARTED IN SEPTEMBER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Period
193919441945 _ _ .1946 . _19471948 _ _ _
1948: January _February. _ _MarchAprilMayJune__ _ _ _ _ _JulyAugust--SeptemberOctober _NovemberDecember
1949; January.. _ _February .__ _ _ _March l _ _ _ _
Totalpersonalincome
72. 6164. 5170.3178. 1195. 2213. 6
Salaries, wages,and other
labor income
45.7116. 1116.8111. 4121.9134. 3
Proprietors'and rental
income
14. 734. 136.041.846. 050. 9
Dividendsand interest
9.210.611.413.515. 617.2
Social securityand GI pay-
ments
3.03. 66.2
11.411.711. 1
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted208. 8206. 4205.7208. 6209. 2214. 4214. 8216. 7217. 3218. 5219. 9221. 0219. 2216.3214. 3
129. 3128. 8128. 5128. 8131.0133. 4135. 5138.0138. 8139. 6140. 1139. 8138.4136. 8134. 5
51.849. 648. 451. 250.453. 051.250. 350.450. 751.452. 151.449.749.0
16. 516. 616. 616.716.816. 917.017.317.517.818. 118.418.318.318.3
11.211.412.211.911.011. 111. 111. 110. 610. 410. 310.711. 111.512.5
9.9.
1 Preliminary estimates. Data became available after chart was prepared.NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVINGIn the 1st quarter of 1949, consumer spending declined for the first time since the war period.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS250
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS250
200
ANNUAL RATES,SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
150
* PERSONAL II
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Period
19391940. _ ._ _ ._1941_ __19421943_._ . .1944...19451946...19471948
1947: Third quarterFourth quarter. _
1948: First quarter _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _Second quarterThird quarter _Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 2 _ _
Disposablepersonalincome l
70.275. 792.0
116.2131. 6145.6149. 4159.2173.6192. 6
Less: Personalconsumptionexpenditures
67.572. 182.390. 8
101. 6111.4122. 8147.4164.8177. 7
Equals: Per-sonal saving
2.73. 79.8
25. 430.034.226.611.88.8
14. 9
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
175.0180.9183. 9190. 2196.2199.4198.0
165.6171. 1172. 5177. 3180. 1181.0178.0
9.49.7
11.412. 916. 118.420.0
1 Income less taxes.2 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
23
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PER CAPITA INCOME'A decrease in prices during the 1st quarter of 1949 more than offset the decrease in per capitaincome. This resulted in a small increase in the real purchasing power of consumers.
400
1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948
** CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1948 *IOO.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR (EXCEPT AS NOTED).
2 31947
2 31948
2 31949
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
193919401941194219431944_1945194619471948
1947:
1948:
1949:
Third quarter . Fourth quarter.First quarter _ _. _ ___Second quarterThird quarter _ _Fourth quarterFirst quarter 4 _ _ _ _ _ _
Per capita disposable personalincome *
Currentdollars
$536574691863964
1,0541,0701, 1271,2051,313
1948 dollars 8
$923981
, 125,256,306,391,374,351,294
1,313
Annual rates, seasonallyadjusted
$1,2121,2461,2631,2861,3181,3511,336
$1, 2911,2911,2891, 2911,2951,3421,347
Consumers'price index81948 = 100
58. 158.561.468.773.875.877.983.493. 1
100.0Not adjustedfor seasonal
variation93.996.598.099. 6
101.8100. 799.2
1 Income less taxes.
2 Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100.
3 The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from
December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. Theunadjusted index will be found on page 2.
4 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor (except as noted).Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
DOLL
2.00
1.50
1. 00
,50
0
2.OO
1.50
1. 00
.500
X CUFi
SOUR(
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGSAverage hourly earnings in manufacturing industries continued to drop in March, and were about 1 cent belowthe postwar peak reached in January.
ARS PER HOUR . DOLLARS PER HOUR
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIESMONTHLY AVERAGE
1948 (
IDOL
60
40
20
0
100
80
60
40
20
0
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGSThe combination of shorter hours and lower hourly earnings reduced average weekly earnings inmanufacturing industries in March to $53.37- $1.64 below the all-time peak of last December.
_ A R S PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK
^ MANUFACTURING/ \I948 C
/ %.-^-
-''' r*/ CURREN"
, , , , , , , , ,
0
" C
LLARS**
~^~*-~^
JOLLARS
M i i i 1 i i i i i
*m\m~**r~~
1 M M 1 1 M 1 1
I M 1 1 1 M 1 1 1
40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
1948 D
fJ7,-'V\J /CURREN
Si i i i i i i i i
01
r
.LARS**
-i.,;^y-)OLLARS
1 M 1 1 1 M 1 II
vy"v
1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 t
*
I I 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949
* EARNINGS DATA DISTORTED DURING THESE MONTHS BECAUSE OF WORK STOPPAGES OR VACATIONS. **C
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
60
40
20
0
100
80
60
40
20
0
URRENT DOLLAF
RETAIL TRADE
1948 D
^^^CURREN'
I i i i i i i i |
0
[
.LARS**\^^
)OLLARS
M i l l 1 1 1 1 1
+*--++*
I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
p*
40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949
BUILDING CONSTRUCTIONMONTHLY AVERAGE
1948 D
/^/' /
""X/ CURREN"s
i i i | i t i i i
01
I
.LARS**
^--^^^^"^t)OLLARS
M I 1 1 1 , M I .
^f^^***"*^
1 1 I I 1 1 I 1 M 1
1 I M 1 i M 1 1 1
40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949s DIVIDED er CONSUMERS' PRICE NDEX ON BASE OF 1948=100
ABLE.
[Selected industries]
Period
1939 monthly average1941 monthly average. _1944 monthly average1945 monthly average __1946 monthly average _1947 monthly average1948 monthly average 3 __ __1948: February _ __
MarchApril _ _ _ _ _ _MaviVJ.O,JJune _ - --JulyAugustSeptemberOctober _ _ _NovemberDecember 3
1949* January 3Februarv 3March 3 _ _ _ _ _
Manufacturing
Currentdollars
$23, 8629. 5846.0844. 3943.7449.2553. 1551.7552.0751.7951. 8652.8552.9554.0554. 1854. 6554.5655.0354.4154. 2553. 37
1948dollars 2
$41. 0748. 1862.4456.9852. 4552. 9053. 1552.9153.4152.3752.0752. 6952. 1753.0453. 1753. 9054. 2354.96
. 54.5254. 9653. 91
Retail trade
Currentdollars
$21. 1721.9426. 5828. 3132. 5536. 6739. 8338.3338.8939.2739. 8440. 5241. 1941. 1940. 4840. 3239. 6740.6241. 7941. 56
1948dollars 2
$36. 4435.7336.0236.3439.0339. 3939.8339. 1939.8939.7140.0040.4040.5840. 4239.7339.7639.4340.5841. 8742. 11
Bituminous coal mining
Currentdollars
$23. 8830.8651.2752. 2558.0366.8672.0670. 5474.844
49. 53-74.0873. 8767. 6278. 1075. 5276.4073.5275. 7976.8475. 65
1948dollars 2
$41. 1050.2669. 4767.0769. 5871.8172.0672. 1376. 764
50. 0874.3873. 6566. 6276. 6474. 1175.3473.0875.7176.9976. 65
Building construction 1
Currentdollars
$30. 3935. 1452. 1853.7356. 2463.3068. 8565. 1665.8766.4567.2269. 5370.4770.9171.2970. 5969.3972.3370.9670. 38
1948dollars 2
$52. 3157.2370. 7068.9767.4367.9968.8566.6367. 5667. 1967. 4969.3269.4369.5969.9669.6268. 9872.2671. 1071. 31
1 Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.2 Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100.3 Preliminary estimate.4 Based on pay period during coal stoppage.Source: Department of Labor.
See note 3 to table on page 24.
26Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
FARM INCOMECosh farm income increased seasonally in March, and was about equal to that in March 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS4
0 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
1947 1948 1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
Period
1939 monthly average _1941 monthly average1942 monthly average _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _1943 monthly average1944 monthly average _ _ _ _ _1945 monthly average1946 monthly average _ _ _ _1947 monthly average1948 monthly average1948: February _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _
MarchApril _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _Mavivj.a,j _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _June _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _JulyAugust _ _ - _ _ _SeptemberOctober _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _NovemberDecember _ _
1949: January 4 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _February 4 _March 4 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Farm income(millions ofcurrent
dollars) l
723981
1, 340], 6781, 7531, 8572, 1362, 5422, 6091, 8621, 9322,0752, 1192,4372, 6932, 7223, 1323,7143, 3142,7402,3831, 7831, 940
Prices paid byfarmers (incl.interest and
taxes) 1948 =100 2
49. 853 060. 265. 167. 969. 177. 592. 8
100. 099. 699. 2
100. 0100. 4100. 8100. 8100. 8100. 4100. 099. 299. 699. 698.498. 8
Farm income(millions of1948 dollars) 3
1, 4521 8512, 2262, 5782, 5822, 6872, 7562, 7392, 6091, 8691, 9482,0752, 1112,4182, 6722, 7003, 1203,7143, 3412,7512,3931,8121, 964
1 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.2 Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948 = 100.3 Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100.4 Preliminary.
Source: Department of Agriculture.27
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURESThe decrease in expenditures for nondurable goods more than accounted for the drop in total consumptionexpenditures in the 1st quarter of 1949.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
150
100
^ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS; BASED ON PRELIMINARY DATA.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ( E X C E P T AS NOTED).- COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Period
193919441945-19461947_1948
1947:
1948:
1949:
Third quarter ._Fourth quarterFirst quarterSecond quarter., _Third quarter _ _ _ _ _ _Fourth quarterFirst quarter *_ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _
Personal consumption expenditures
Total
67.5111.4122.8147.4164. 8177. 7
Nondurablegoods
35.367.575.487.596.5
103. 6
Durablegoods
6.76.98.3
16.221.022. 7
Services
25.537.039.243.647.351.4
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
165. 6171. 1172. 5177.3180. 1181.0178.0
96.8100.2101.4103.7104. 3105. 1102.0
21.122.121.322. 823. 722. 922. 5
47.748.849.850.852. 153.053. 5
1 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
28Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CONSUMER CREDITConsumer credit increased $43 million in March. Some expansion in instalment credit (loan andautomobile sale) was offset in part by small declines in charge accounts and other consumer credit.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS2 0
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS2 0
I 8
1943 1946 1947END OF YEAR 1947
M J J A S
1948END OF MONTH
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
[Millions of dollars]
End of period
193919431946 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _19471948 -_ _ _ _ _ - - -1948' February
March _ _AprilMay _ _JuneJulyAugust _ _SeptemberOctoberNovember _ _ _ _December
1949* JanuaryFebruary 2 _March 2
Totalconsumer
creditoutstanding
7,9695, 378
10, 19113, 67316, 31913, 30213, 80514, 05914,31114, 66914, 72314, 91615, 23115, 51815, 73916, 31915, 74915, 33615, 379
Instalment credit
Total
4,4242,0014,0006,4348,6006, 5486, 8217,0947, 3187,5337,7387,9728, 1908,2338, 3228,6008,4258, 3408,447
Automobilesale
credit
1, 267175544
1, 1511, 9611, 2541, 3671,4681, 5361,6021,6891,7811, 8581,8891, 9221, 9611, 9651, 9962, 113
Other salecredit arid
loans
3, 1571,8263,4565,2836, 6395, 2945,4545,6265, 7825,9316, 0496, 1916, 3326, 3446,4006, 6396, 4606,3446,334
Chargeaccounts
1, 5441, 4983, 0543, 6123,8543,0613, 2753,2363,2453,3523, 1853, 1303,2273,4573, 5573,8543,4573, 1763, 141
Otherconsumer
credit l
2,0011,8793, 1373, 6273,8653, 6933, 7093,7293,7483,7843,8003, 8143,8143,8283, 8603,8653, 8673,8203, 791
1 Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.2 Preliminary estimates.NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCEBANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTSAfter o contraction in January and February, bank loans increased in March.
125 -
100 -
75 -
50 -
25 -
ONS
__
-
OF DOLLARS
1W"
XXx*
if
I-
125
100
1929 1939 1945END OF YEAR
SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sys tem
INVESTMENT INU. S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
1948END OF MONTH
1949
PR EL I Ml NARY 5 TIM A TE
[Billions of dollars]
TP *-./-! f^t -r^^^^Aii
MONEY SUPPLYMoney supply declined again in March by about $2 billion, chiefly as a result of reduced demand deposits.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS200
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS200
TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY( EXCLUDING U.S. GOV'T. DEPOSITS)
TIME DEPOSITS
liADJUSTED DEMAND DEPOSITS :
CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS *B "
I 50
1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N DEND OF YEAR "9^7 1948 1949
END OF MONTHSOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
End of period
1929 - . ...1939 ..1941 ... -19431945 . _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _19461947 _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _1948-1948: February _
March. .April ._ _MayJune . . .. - .July. . . . . _ - _AugustSeptemberOctober _ _NovemberDecember
1949: JanuaryFebruary _ _ _ _March3 _ _ _ _
Total moneysupply
54.663.376.3
112. 3150. 9164.0170. 0168. 7167. 1164.0165.0165. 2165. 7166.2166.7166. 9168.0167. 9168.7168.0166. 1164.0
Currencyoutsidebanks
3. 66.49.6
18.826. 526.726. 525. 725.725.625.425.425. 625.525. 625.725.725. 925. 725. 225. 125.0
Adjusteddemand
deposits l
22. 829. 839. 060. 875. 983.387. 185. 884.681.582.782.882. 783.483.883. 985.085.085. 885.383. 381.0
Timedeposits 2
28. 227. 127. 732.748. 554.056. 457.356. 856.956. 957.057.457.357. 357. 357. 357. 057. 357.657. 758.0
1 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of col-
lection.2 Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System.8 Preliminary estimate.NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
31Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROMAND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLICThe cash surplus of about $3 billion during the first quarter, which includes the seasonally highMarch tax receipts, was less than half as great as during the same quarter of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARSI 6
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS16
1946 1947 1948 1949
EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS
1:1 EXCESS OF CA'SHLJ
1946 1947 1948C A L E N D A R Y E A R S
PREL.EST.
1949
SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Calendar years
Calendar year total:1946 _ _ _ _ _19471948 - _ _ -
Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal:1946: First quarter _ _ . _ _ _ - - _ -
Second quarterThird quarter _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _Fourth quarter
1947: First quarter _ __Second quarter _ _ _ _Third quarter _ _ _ _Fourth quarter
1948- First quarterSecond quarter _ _ _ _ _ _ _Third quarterFourth quarter. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
1949: First Quarter 2_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Federal cashreceipts fromthe public 1
41, 42644, 27944, 920
12, 6329, 4629, 7029, 630
14, 3459, 847
10, 2209, 869
15, 03710, 23810, 0859, 560
13, 122
Federal cashpayments tothe public 1
41, 37238, 58436, 954
12, 24412, 0088,4498, 671
9, 16310, 62810, 2578 536
8 6379,0338, 798
10, 486
9,931
Excess of re-ceipts ( + ) or
payments ( )
+ 54+ 5,695+ 7,967
+ 388 2 547+ 1 252
+ 959
+ 5 182 781
37+ 1 331
+ 6 400+ 1 205+ 1 287
925
+ 3. 1911 Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; pre-
viously, they were reported as expenditures.2 Preliminary estimate.NOTE.,Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
oFor sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. O.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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