05-1949

Joint Committee Print

Economic IndicatorsMAY 1949

Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Reportby the Council of Economic Advisers

and printed for the use ofthe Joint Committee on the Economic Report

UNITED STATESGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 194990364

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman

EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman

FRANCIS J. MYERS, PennsylvaniaJOHN J. SPARKMAN, AlabamaPAUL H. DOUGLAS, IllinoisROBERT A. TAFT, OhioRALPH E. FLANDERS, VermontARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah

WRIGHT PATMAN, TexasWALTER B. HUBER, OhioFRANK BUCHANAN, PennsylvaniaJESSE P. WOLCOTT, MichiganROBERT F. RICH, PennsylvaniaCHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts

FRED E. BERQUIST, Acting Staff DirectorJOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk

WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist

To the Members of Congress:As has been stated in previous issues of Economic Indi-

cators, from the time the Joint Committee on the Eco-nomic Report was established its members realized thatone of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful pictureof current economic trends and developments.

Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that EconomicIndicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiledmonthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirablyfills this need. While this material was prepared pri-marily for the use of the President, the Council and otherofficials in the executive offices, the Council has made itavailable to the Joint Committee.

Other Members of Congress have also expressed aninterest in being able to obtain a quick picture of currenteconomic facts without having to go through vo-luminous and specialized documents. In addition,businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and repre-sentatives of the press and radio have indicated their

desire for this information. Since nothing containedin these charts and tables is of a confidential nature theyhave urged that the material be made available to thegeneral public.

Accordingly, the Joint Committee has, since last July,provided the Congress and the public with a limitednumber of copies of Economic Indicators as a Committeeprint pending final action on authorizing the publica-tion on a more permanent basis. Since such legislationis still under consideration, the Committee is continuingto issue the report on a monthly basis.

Comments or suggestions with respect to possibleimprovements in this presentation will always bewelcome.

u-

ss:

Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.


Letter o Transmitted

Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman,Joint Committee on the Economic Report,

United States Congress, Washington, D. C.

DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with theJoint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicatorsavailable to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.

In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council hasfound it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important factsshowing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a betterposition to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote theimprovement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.

We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only tothe President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress.Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularlyby the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations withwhom we regularly consult.

We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving widecirculation to this material.

Sincerely yours,

j*x^y^^^ Vice Chairman.

0


ContentsTHE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET Page

The Nation's Economic Budget 1

PRICESConsumers' Prices 2Wholesale Prices 3Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 4Stock Prices 5

EMPLOYMENTLabor Force 6Employment in Business and Government 7Average Weekly Hours 8Work Stoppages 9

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production 10Production of Selected Durable Manufactures 11Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures 12Weekly ProductionSelected Indicators 13New Construction 14New Housing Starts 15Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 16New Corporate Security Issues 17Inventories and Sales 18Merchandise Exports and Imports 19

PURCHASING POWERNational Income 20Corporate Profits 21Personal Income 22Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving 23Per Capita Income 24Average Hourly Earnings 25Average Weekly Earnings 26Farm Income 27Personal Consumption Expenditures 28Consumer Credit 29

MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCEBank Loans and Investments 30Money Supply 31Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public 32

IV


THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET

THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGETA general decline in economic activity during the 1st quarter resulted in about $6 billion (annual rate)decline in gross national product from the level of the 4th quarter. Consumer expenditures and businessinvestment shared in the decline.

1948 , 4th Quarter (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)TOTAL (Gross National Product)

EXCESS OFEXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS ( + )

CONSUMERS Transfer payments

BUSINESS

ZG. 8

I

INTERNATIONAL

GOVERNMENT (Federal, state and local)56.4-^

*" Transfer payments-^

1949, 1st Quarter (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)TOTAL (Gross National Product)$&88&&8sSSSoQOoocCONSUMERS Transfer payments -

;iiiij;!!jiiiiijiji;!;iii;ijii!iii!:ij;ji^Tj?y^ss-'$i^^ '78.o';.'::W:':z.y%%%zj,j>.tf,^

BUSINESS

INTERNATIONAL

GOVERNMENT (Federal, state and local)57. 3 2/

56.3

/ T R A N S F E R PAYMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR E X P E N D I T U R E S OF THE S E P A R A T E ACCOUNTS BUT NOT IN THE TOTAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT.

SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1949, APPENDIX A, AND Jj ABOVE.

CON-SUMERSAVING

EXCESS OFINVESTMENT

EXCESS OFRECEIPTS

CASHDEFICIT

CON-SUMERSAVING

EXCESS OF.INVESTMENT

EXCESS OFRECEIPTS

CASHSURPLUS


PRICESCONSUMERS' PRICESConsumers' prices rose slightly in March, thus reversing the trend of the previous 5 months. Therise in food prices accounted for roost of the increase.

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

160

180

160

120

100

120

1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[1935-39=100]

Period

1939 monthly average1940 monthly average1941 monthly average1942 monthly average1943 monthly average1944 monthly average _ _ _ _1945 monthly average1946 monthly average _ _ _1947 monthly average1948 monthly average1948: March _ _ _

AprilMay _JuneJulvSeptemberOctober. _ _NovemberDecember _ _ __ _

1949: January __ _February _ _March

All items

99.4100.2105. 2116. 5123. 6125. 5128. 4139. 3159. 2171. 2166. 9169. 3170. 5171. 7173. 7174. 5174. 5173. 6172. 2171. 4170. 9169. 0169. 5

Food

95. 296. 6

105. 5123. 9138. 0136. 1139. 1159. 6193. 8210. 2202. 3207. 9210. 9214. 1216. 8216 6215. 2211. 5207. 5205. 0204. 8199. 7201. 6

Apparel

100. 5101. 7106. 3124. 2129. 7138. 8145. 9160. 2185. 8198. 0196. 3196. 4197. 5196. 9197. 1199. 7201. 0201. 6201. 4200. 4196. 5195. 1193. 9

Rent

104. 3104. 6106.2108. 5108. 0108. 2108. 3108. 6111. 2117.4116.3116. 3116. 7117.0117.3117. 7118. 5118. 7118. 8119. 5119. 7119. 9120. 1

Fuel, elec-tricity, andrefrigeration

99.099. 7

102.2105. 4107. 7109. 8110. 3112.4121. 1133. 9130.3130. 7131. 8132. 6134. 8136. 8137. 3137. 8137. 9137.8138.2138. 8138. 9

House fur-nishings

101.3100. 5107.3122.2125. 6136.4145. 8159.2184.4195.8194.9194.7193. 6194. 8195. 9196. 3198. 1198. 8198.7198. 6196. 5195. 6193. 8

Miscellane-ous

100.7101. 1104.0110.9115. 8121.3124. 1128.8139. 9149.9146.2147.8147.5147.5150.8152.4152.7153.7153.9154.0154. 1154. 1154. 4

NOTE.Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.Source: Department of Labor.


WHOLESALE PRICESWholesale prices declined during April, primari ly because of the fal l in industrial prices. Farmand food prices showed litt le change during the month.

PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE220

PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE

220

120

100

1942 1943 1944 1945 1948


[1926=100]

Period

1941 monthly average1942 monthly average1946 monthly average

June _ _-1947 monthly average1948 monthly average __ .. .1948: March _ __

April __ _MayJune_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _JulyAugust _ _ _September __ _ _OctoberNovemberDecember

1949: JanuaryFebruaryMarchWeek ended:

Apr. 5121926 __ _ _ _

May 3

All com-modities

87 398. 8

121 1112. 9152. 1165.0161. 4162. 8163. 9166. 2168 7169. 5168. 7165. 2164. 0162. 3160. 6"158 1158. 4158. 0157. 6156. 9156. 1155.2

Farm prod-ucts

82 4105. 9148. 9140. 1181. 2188. 3186. 0186. 7189. 1196. 0195. 2191.0189. 9183. 5180. 8177. 3172. 5168. 3171. 3171. 5171. 1171. 1169, 4168.3

Foods

82. 799. 6

130. 7112. 9168. 7179. 1173. 8176. 7177. 4181. 4188. 3189. 5186. 9178. 2174. 3170. 2165. 8161. 5162. 9164. 7164. 2163. 4162. 4161. 8

Other thanfarm prod-

ucts and foods

89. 095. 5

109. 5105. 6135. 2150. 7147. 7148. 7149. 1149. 5151. 1153. 1153. 3153. 1153. 5153. 0152. 9151. 4150. 8149. 7149. 4148. 4147. 9147. 1

NOTE.The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with themonthly index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit such a comparison.

Source: Department of Labor.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSNeither prices received nor prices paid by farmers showed much change from March 15 to April 15.

PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE350

300

250

200

150

MONTHLY AVERAGE

PRICES RECEIVED

PRICES PAID(INCL. INTEREST,TAXES)

I I I M I I I I I I

PARITY RATIO*

PERCENT OF 19(0-14 AVERAGE350

300

250

200

150

100

50

I I I I I M M !1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

1947 1948 1949

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

PricesPeriod received

by farmers 1

1939 monthly average 951941 monthly average 1241942 monthly average 1 1591943 monthly average 1921944 monthly average 1951945 monthly average 2021946 monthly average 2331947 monthly average 2781948 monthly average 2871948: March 283

April. _ 291May 289June. 295July 301August 293September 290October 277November. 271December 268

1949: January 268February 258March 261April 260

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Prices paid byfarmers (includ-

ing interestand taxes)2

124132150162169172193231249247249250251251251250249247248

248245246246

Parity ratio3

7794106119115117121120115115117116118120117116111110108108105106106

i August 1909-July 1914=100.21910-14= 100.3 Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, ancl taxes,

Source: Department of Agriculture,Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

STOCK PRICESDuring April, industrial and utilities' stock prices registered further slight gains.

PERCENT OF 1935 - 39 AVERAGE175

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE175

1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

125

100

SOURCE . STANDARD AND POOR S CORPORATION. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[1935-39 = 100]

Period

1939 monthly average _ _1941 monthly average1942 monthly average1943 monthly average1944 monthly average1945 monthly average.. - _1946 monthly average1947 monthly average.1948 monthly average1948: March . . _ >

AprilMav-- - - - -J.O, JJune 'JulyAugustSeptember __ _ _OctoberNovember December

1949: JanuaryFebruaryMarchApril

Combinedindex l

94. 280. 069.491. 999. 8

121. 5139. 9123.0124.4116.4124. 6130.2135. 1131.9127. 1125.7127. 8120. 4119. 4121. 0117.2118. 0118. 5

Industrials

94. 880. 471.394. 1

101. 7123. 3143. 4128. 0130. 6121.8130.8136.9142. 7138.9133. 5131. 7134. 3126. 4125. 5127. 3122. 7123. 7124, 2

P^ailroads

74. 770. 666. 188. 7

101.0136. 9143. 0105. 3114. 8105. 2115.2122.6125. 6124. 7119. 7120.4120. 9108. 8105. 8105. 999.697. 497. 1

Utilities

98. 681 061. 382. 189. 9

106. 1120 2102. 996. 393. 096.299. 2

100. 699.597 397.397. 494:292. 994. 294. 495. 396. 1

1 Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,

20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,and 31 utilities.

Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

EMPLOYMENTLABOR FORCEUnemployment dropped slightly in April for the second straight month. Nonagricultural employmentdeclined and agricultural employment increased less than seasonally.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS70

60

30

MILLIONS OF PERSONS70

UNEMPLOYMENT

NONAGRICULTURALC I V I L I A N

EMPLOYMENT

40

UNEMPLOYMENTMAGNIFIED SCALE

1939 1944 1946 1947 1948

MONTHLY AVERAGE

E

-

ww$$i--^

_

_

f-^^-___^^^jv>xjy;\Yi^\^^^^^ 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1

10

8

6

4

?

0

SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]

Period

1941 monthly average___1944 monthly average1945 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average...1948 monthly average..-1948: March

AprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovember _.December

1949: JanuaryFebruary _ _March,April

Total laborforce, in-cludingarmedforces

57, 38065, 89065, 14060, 82061, 60862, 74861, 00561, 76061, 66064, 74065,13564, 51163, 57863, 16663, 13862, 82861, 54661, 89662, 30562, 337

Civilian employment

Total

50, 35053, 96052, 82055, 25058, 02759, 37857, 32958, 33058, 66061,29661,61561, 24560, 31260, 13459, 89359, 43457, 41457, 16857, 64757, 819

In non-agriculturalindustries

41, 25045, 01044, 24046, 93049, 76151, 40550, 48250, 88350, 80051, 89952, 45252, 80151, 59051,50651, 93252, 05950, 65150, 17450, 25449, 999

In agri-culture

9, 1008, 9508,5808, 3208, 2667,9736,8477,4487,8619,3969, 1638,4448,7238. 6277,9617,3756,7636, 9937,3937,820

Armedforces

1,47011, 26011, 2803, 3001,4401, 3071,2361,2361,2381,2611,2931,3251,3661,3911,4141,4531,4681, 5081, 4911,492

Unemploy-ment

5,560670

1,0402,2702, 1412,0642,4402, 1931,7612, 1842,2271,9411,8991,6421,8311,9412,6643, 2213, 1673,016

NOTE.-Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce.Digitized for FRASER

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS AND GOVERNMENTManufacturing employment, particularly in durable goods industries, declined again in March.Employment in other major industry groups changed slightly.

MILLIONS OF WAGEAND SALARY WORKERS12

MILLIONS OF WAGEAND SALARY WORKERS

12

A

NONDURABLEMANUFACTURING'

FINANCE AND SERVICE

GOVERNMENT

TRANSPORTATION ANDPUBLIC UTILITIES

CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION-

V /^"""-MINING'

I j 1 I I I I I I I

10

1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D1947 1948 ' 1949

SOURCE: Depo r tmen t of Laboi

[Thousands of wage and salary workers J

Period

1939 monthly average _ _ _ _ _ _ _1943 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average1948 monthly average. _ _ _ _ _ _ _

1948: FebruaryMarch _ _ _ __ _April-MayJune_ -JulyAugust _ _ _SeptemberOctober _ _November _ _ -December.. _ _

1949: January 2 _ . _ _ _February 2March2, _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Durablemanufac-

turing

4, 35710, 2977, 1808, 0,558, 214

8, 1678,2588, 1648, 1148, 1228, 1658, 1888,2948, 3188,3038, 222

8,0057, 8917, 762

Nondurablemanufac-

turing

5, 7207,0847,3357,8468,063

8,0168,0117, 7867, 7787,9938,0078,2538, 4038, 2798, 1588, 061

7, 8857, 8657,787

Trade

6, 7057, 3228, 8209, 4509, 746

9, 5209, 5989, 5769, 6179, 6709, 6469, 6609, 7339, 889

10, 03410, 381

9, 6259, 5139,529

Finance andservice

4, 6105, 1876, 0166, 2786, 400

6, 4206.4266,4726, 4546, 3896,3996,3836, 3796, 3646, 3646, 346

6, 2576, 2666,331

Government(Federal,

State, local)

3,9876, 0495, 6075, 4505, 658

5,4925, 5465, 5775, 6245, 6075, 6045, 6505, 8015,7895, 7145, 994

5, 7615, 7595, 762

Transporta-tion andpublic

utilities

2,9123, 6194,0234, 0594, 065

4,0194,0323,9744,0424, 1054, 1364, 1394,0924, 0914,0664, 066

3,9773, 9573, 938

Contractconstruc-

tion

1, 1501,5671,6611,9212,063

1, 7311,8051,9332,0522, 1732,2192,2532,2392,2062, 1622,079

1,9061,8241,824

Mining

845917852911925

914924817935950922952948941938939

924922915

1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending

nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-ernployed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from thistable not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which includeproprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; andwhich are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.

2 Preliminary estimate.Source: Department of Labor.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

HOUR

50

45

40

35

30

25

0

50

45

40

35

30

25

0

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURSThe overage workweek in manufacturing industries fell to a postwar low of 38.9 hours in March, as furthercutbacks were made in overtime.S PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK

ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIESMONTHLY AVERAGE

/\J

. \ _

i i i i i t i i i

i r *

1 1 l i 1 l 1 l I 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 I 1 1 l l

~"

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949

BITUMINOUS COAL MINING

/x./ ^/

s

'T7. , , , ,

\

\l\^vrif\ j ,.^v*11

1

\

50

45

40

35

30

25

0

50

45

40

35

30

25

040 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949


RETAIL TRADEMONTHLY AVERAGE

\

1 1 1 1 1 1 I I 1

*^~~\

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

*^r

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

^

1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

/^-S

_ ____^--_______

i i i i i i i i i

^ *.

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

^~" >/]

1 i 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

^

1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1

4O 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949


[Hours per week, selected industries]

Period

1939 monthly average1941 monthly average. .1944 monthly average1945 monthly average1946 monthly average - .1947 monthly average1948 monthly average2 *1948: February _ . . _.

MarchAprilMay__JuneJulyAugust _ _ - _SeptemberOctober _ . _ _NovemberDecember2

1949: January 2 . _ . . .. .February 2 _ _March 2

All manu-facturingindustries

37. 740. 645. 243. 440. 440. 340. 140. 240. 440. 139. 940. 239.840. 139. 840. 039. 840. 039. 439. 438 9

Retail trade

43.042. 540. 340. 340. 540.240. 140. 039. 839. 839. 940. 340.841.040.239.739. 540. 240. 040.0

Bituminouscoal mining

27. 131. 143.442.341. 640.637. 738. 740. 63

27. 040.339.934.239.437. 938.637. 138. 539. 338.0

Buildingconstruction l

32. 634. 839. 639.038. 137.637. 336. 436. 936. 737.037. 937.837.837. 637.336. 437. 837. 036.4

1 Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.2 Preliminary estimate.3 Based on pay period during coal stoppage.

Source: Department of Labor.

8Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

WORK STOPPAGESThe rise in man-days lost in March was caused chiefly by the coal miners1 "two-week holiday". Other minordisputes also contributed to the increase.

MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLEI 5

MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE15

1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 194 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D1947 1948 1949

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. "COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1939 monthly average1941 monthly average1942 monthly average1943 monthly average1944 monthly average. _1945 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average1948 monthly average l

1948: February _March _ __AprilMay _JuneJuly .AugustSeptemberOctoberNovember,December _ _

1949: January 1February1March l _

Man-daysidle(thousands)

1 4841 921

3491 125

7273 1699 6672 8832 842

9136 4407 4104 0802 2202 6702 1002, 5402 0601 910

713

800650

3 600

Man-days idleas percent of

estimated avail-able working

time

0 33

. 12

. 15

1. 4. 44

1. 8

1 0. 6. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 5

1 Preliminary estimate.

Source: Department of Labor.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONIndustrial production was down about 3% in March as a result of lower output of nondurable manufacturesand curtailed mining activities. Preliminary April data indicate declines in both durables and nondurables andsome recovery in mining.

250 - 250

200 - 200

150 - 150

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1935-39 monthly average.1943 monthlv average1945 monthly average1946 monthlv average1947 monthly average. _1948 monthly average

1948- MarchApril _ _ _ _MayJune -JulyAugustSeptember _OctoberNovemberDecember _ _ _ _

1949* JanuaryFebruaryMarch * __April *

Indexes, 1935-39=100

Totalindustrial

production

100239203170187192

191188192192186191192195195192

191189184179

Manufactures

Total

100258214177194198

200195197198192197199202201199

198196193186

Durablegoods

100360274192220225

229217221222219223225231229231-

227226223216

Nondura-ble goods

100176166165172177

177177178179169177178179178173

175173168161

Minerals

100132137134149155

142147162159153159156158161156

149148133143

Points in total index,1935-39 average for total =100

Manufactures

Durablegoods

38136104738385

87828484838485878787

86868482

Nondura-ble goods

478378778183

83838384798283848381

828180

- 75

Minerals

152021212324

22222524232424242524

23222022

Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLEMANUFACTURESIron and steel output reached a new al l - t ime high in March. Lumber production also increased butmachinery production dropped sharply.

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

MONTHLY AVERAGE

IRON AND STEEL

150

100 1 i i I I i I i i i

250LUMBER AND PRODUCTS

MONTHLY AVERAGE

40 42 44- 46 48 40 42 44 46 48 1949

250

200

MACHINERY

I 0 * 1 * 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

40 42 44 46 48

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

1947 1948 1949

300

NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTSMONTHLY AVERAGE

100 1 I I t I I I I I40 42 44 46 48

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S


Period

1939 monthly average1940 monthly average _ _ _ _ _1941 monthly average _ _1942 monthly average _ _ _ _ _ _1943 monthlv average1944 monthly average _ _1945 monthly average1946 monthly average __1947 monthly average1948 monthly average _ _ _ _1Q48* February

MarchApril _ _ _ _ _MayJune _ _ _JulyAugust _ __ _SeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember

1949: January _Februarv 1March l _

Iron andsteel

114147186199208206183150195208

203207177208208201207214221223222

228232234

Lumber andproducts

106116134134129125109131143145

150151145142140142148143147145143

129123128

Machinery

104136221340443439343240276277

284283275273277269271273277277275

268262251

Nonferrousmetals andproducts

113139191214267259204157187193

199201200196194185186192192187184

183186187


Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PERCEf

300

200

100

0

400

300

200

100

0

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLEMANUFACTURESDroduction of textiles and products, chiefly wool and rayon, decreased about 10% in Marchj industrialchemicals also declined.

IT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS

j~^i I i i ' i i i i i

-^ p~

1 . 11 1 1 I I 1 1 It 1 1 I I ! 1 1 1 ! ! I ! 1

N

1 l'l I 1 1 1 ! 1 ! 140 42 44 46 48 1947 1948. 1949

MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS

s~-i i i i i t i i i

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 I ! 1

40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

300

200

100

0

400

300

200

100

0

PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS

A/J^i i i i j 1 i t i

s

^x^

1 ! 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 ^

1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1

K

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 140 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949

CHEMICAL PRODUCTSMONTHLY JLAVERAGE j\

/

1 1 1 I I I 1 I I

""* i..

1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

**> *-

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II

X

1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1

40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949


Period

193539 monthly average1943 monthly average1945 monthly average -1946 monthly average .1947 monthly average1948 monthly average _1948: February

MarchAprilMayJuneJuly .AugustSeptember .OctoberNovember _December _ _

1949: January _ _ _February ]March1 _

Textiles andproducts

100153146162163169

179175174176174154166168167164156

160157142

Petroleumand coalproducts

100185235173193218

215211213220221217222207217227230

228222220

Manufac-tured foodproducts

100145151150157159

160158157159163160154163161159158

159161162

Chemicalproducts

100384284236251254

252250249249256251259257255257257

257250242


Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,


WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORSSteel production in April dropped just below the all-time peak rate reached in March while motor vehiclesreached the highest rate since 1937.

MILLIONS OF TONS3

1949

STEEL

'1947

I I l I I I IF M A M J A S 0 N D

MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS3.0

BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS7.0

ELECTRIC POWER

1949

I i | | I

THOUSANDS160

120

F M A M J J A S O N

A S 0 N D

SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

Weekly average:1947 - -1948

Week ended:1948- Apr 3

1 0 _ _ - - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _172 4 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

May 1 _8

1949- Apr 29 , _ _ _ _ _

1623 - _ - _ - - -- - -30

May 7 _ -

Steel(thousands of

net tons)

1, 6371, 700

1, 5921, 5211, 2851,4421, 5611, 640

1, 8401, 8211, 8291, 8141, 7971, 794

Electric power,by utilities(millions of

kilowatt-hours)

4, 8215, 300

5, 0375,0335, 0875,0275, 0425 0875 3785, 3605, 3435, 3265, 304

Bituminouscoal

(thousands ofshort tons) l

2,0081,906

355413

1, 3061,9522, 3352, 122

1, 9321,8801, 9081, 8931,922

Cars andtrucks

(number)

90, 860100, 670

99, 90197, 31199. 567

101, 66197, 40979, 785

113, 784126, 165126, 521134, 706129, 457121, 845

1 Daily average for week.

Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Auto-motive Reports.

1Q


NEW CONSTRUCTIONConstruction activity continued its seasonal increase in April, reaching a total ot $1.4 billion. Publicconstruction increased more than private, bringing the two categories back into more normalrelationship.

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS2,OOO

\I I\

. \

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS2,000

1939 1942 1944 1946 1947 1948

^INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1,500

1,000

M A M J J

1948O N D J F M A M J J A S

1949

C O U N C I L OF E C O N O M I C ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]

Period

1939 monthly average _ _ _ _1942 monthly average1944 monthly average _ _1946 monthly average _ -1947 monthly average1948 monthly average1948: Februarv _ _. _ _

MarchAprilMay__ - -j - -JuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctober _ _NovemberDecember

1949: January _ _FebruaryMarch 2 . _ _ADH12

Total newconstruction

5261, 118

345871

1, 1941, 5651,0491, 2261,3781, 5721,754

, 874,934, 901,814, 646,447

1,2691, 1481,2481,368

Private construction

Totalprivate

317251152688932

1,214875

1,0011,0991, 2221,3481,4231,4541,4271,3551, 2561, 129

977880928987

Residential(nonfarm)

17611045

265438602410490550625682707720707670615547450375400440

Other

141141107422493612465511549597666716734720685641582527505528547

Federal,State, and

local 1

208867193184262351174225279350406451480474459390318292268320381

1 Includes public residential construction.2 Preliminary estimate.

NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/


NEW HOUSING STARTSAbout 62,000 new permanent dwelling units were started in March. While this is 12,000 less thanMarch 1948, it represents a normal seasonal increase from the lower level at which the year started.

THOUSANDS OF UNITS125

THOUSANDS OF UNITS125

50

25

M A M

SOURCE'- DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

Month

JanuaryFebruary _ _ _MarchApril _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _MayJuneJuly _ _ _AugustSeptember. _ _ _ _ _ _ October- _November _ _ _December.

Total _ _ _ _ _ _Monthly average

New nonfarm units started

1947

39, 30042, 80056, 00067, 10072, 90077, 20081, 10086, 30093, 80094, 00079, 70058, 800

849, 00070,750

1948

53, 50050, 10076, 40099, 500

100, 30097, 80095, 00086, 60082, 20073, 40063, 60052, 900

931, 30077, 600

1949

1 50, 0001 46, 0001 62, 000

1 Preliminary.

Source: Department of Labor.


EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANTAND EQUIPMENTSEC-Commerce survey made in January shows that nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment in2nd quarter of 1949 are expected to be slightly lower than in same quarter of 1948. It also shows that substantialdeclines in all fields except electric and gas utilities and mining are anticipated in 2nd half of this year.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS25

ANN UAL TOTALS


1939 1941 1945

TRANSPORTATION ANDELECTRIC AND GASI FUTILITIES

10

* NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION.

SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

[Millions of dollars, annual rates', not adjusted for seasonal]

Period

1939 -19411945 _ _19461947. . _ _194819493_ __1947: First quarter

Second quarter. _ .Third quarterFourth quarter _ _ ,

1948: First quarter _ _Second quarter _ _Third quarterFourth quarter _ ..

1949: First quarter3 _Second quarter 3_Second half 3 . __

Total i

5,2008, 1906,630

12, 04016, 18019, 23018, 31012, 64015, 76016, 56019, 76016, 68019, 28019, 32021, 64018, 72019, 12017, 700

Manufac-turing

1,9303,4003,2105,9107,4608,3407,2405,8007,4007,4809,1607,2008,5608,3609,2807,7607,4406,880

Mining

380680440560690800820600640720840720800800880720760900

Transportation

Railroad

280560550570910

1,3201,450

640880920

1,2001,0801,2401,3201, 6401,5601, 6401, 300

Other

280340320660800700650720920800760720760680680640720620

Electric andgas utilities

480710630

1,0401,9002,6803, 1301,3201,8002,0002,4802,0002,5602,7603,4002,8803, 1603,240

Commercialand miscel-

laneous 2

1,8502,4901,4803,3004,4305,3905,0103,6004, 1204, 6405,3604,9605,3605,4405, 7605, 1605,4404,720

1 Excludes agriculture.2 Includes trade, service, finance, and communication.3 Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.NOTE.These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Com-

merce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged tocurrent expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and otherdata.

Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).Digitized for FRASER


NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUESTotal proceeds from new corporate security issues fell heavily in the 1st quarter reflecting a decline in bothfixed and working capital financing.

B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S

3.0

2 . 5

QUARTERLY AVERAGE

i11

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS3 . O

1939 1943 1946 1947 1948

SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S


Period

1939 quarterly average1943 quarterly average1945 quarterly average1946 quarterly average1947 quarterly average _ _ _ _ _1948 quarterly average 2

1947: Third quarterFourth quarter __

1948: First quarter ..Second quarter.- _Third quarterFourth quarter

1949: First quarter 2

Estimatednet pro-

ceeds

529287

1,4751,6891,6171,604

1, 3742,3111,6141,6631,2671,873

1,057

Proposed uses of net proceeds

New money

Total

8177

270820

1, 1481, 392

8842,0001,4001,3531,0451,767

851

Plant andequipment

4335

159529852

1,035692

1,654

8451,080

7641,451

699

Workingcapital

3942

111291296357192347

555274281316152

Retirementof debt and

stock *

448210

1, 206869469212

490310214309221105206

1 Includes small amount for other purposes.2 Preliminary (estimate.NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source; Securities and Exchange Commission.Digitized for FRASER


BILL

20

1 0

0

BILL

40

30

20

1 0

0

INVENTORIES AND SALESThe book value of manufacturers' inventories showed the first sizeable decrease since the war,as sales rose seasonally. Department store sales on a seasonally adjusted basis declined again,though less rapidly than in January or February.

ONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

WHOLESALE

/rjjj^ *-* .^...-^ INVEf

i i i i i i i i i

L

T(

ES

ixT"-***JRIES

i I i l i 1 l l i i i 1 1 1 t I 1 i 1 1 1 1

SX*

I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949

IONS OF DOLLARS

MANUFACTURINGMONTHLY AVERAGE

INVEf

y

,/7x/ s//i i i i i i i i i

JT

L

DRIES

\ 1). ......I

IS

,M l . l l l , , ,

^~

l . . I l l . . 1 II

V

! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1

20

1 0

0

PERCE

400

300

200

1 00

0

RETAILMONTHLY AVERAGE

INVEI^yj?' s

y '^y\t

i i i | | i | | i

T(

L

s

)RIES

_ \ ....,7 ''

1 1 1 II ! M I 1 1

EASONALLY ADJUSTED

. ""

1 1 M 1 I 1 1 1 II

>

1 1 1 M 1 II 1 I 1

40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949

IT OF 1935-1939 AVERAGE

DEPARTMENT STORES

/y-

//INVEt^

{&*

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1

^LE

TC

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

:sv .--vr^-s^

Jy Vr-

)RIES

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 I

w \ ,v

I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

X

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 1

40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949 40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949

50URCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1939 _ .19411943 .19451946 _ _194719481948- March .

AprilMav-JuneJuly.AugustSeptember _October . . _ . _November cT)p,r,fvrr\bfir 6

1949 1 January 6February 6March 6 _

Wholesale 1

Inventories 8 Sales 4Retail2

Inventories 3 Sales 4Manufacturing *

Inventories 3 Sales 4

Millions of dollars

3,2004, 1513,5774,2165,8237,5458,3157,8697,7777,8017,9537,9308, 1008,2438,4008,5078,3158,5278,5678,453

2, 5053,6504,3304,7776, 1387,3047,8677,7267,6527,3897,7667,7968,1618,2868,3768,2428, 1967, 1636,8027,483

5,5027,6207, 3507,502

11,04912, 95314, 55614, 04013, 90713, 95114, 06514, 08014, 14514, 53114, 57614, 77914, 55614, 08513, 93414, 049

3,5044,6245,3106,3878, 3999,860

10, 78410, 65810, 89110, 62010, 86210, 85710, 89310, 96810, 89410, 77111, 06210, 61510, 58810, 608

11,51617, 02419, 89717, 92423, 43528, 02031, 76629, 06429, 16129, 43729, 72730, 23630, 42930, 71030, 84831,22531, 76631, 99832, 06531, 700

5, 1128, 172

12, 60312, 37112, 02015, 67117, 59318, 11717, 22916, 77717, 87116, 40318, 16918, 78118, 80717, 98718, 19516, 85916, 42717, 700

Department stores

Inventories Sales

1935-39=100, seasonallyadjusted 6

102131155166213255292312308297285275268275283303305285286293

106133168207264286302284306311312316312312306287310287274270

1 Not adjusted for seasonal variation.1 Adjusted for seasonal variation.

5 Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for

month and retail book value of inventories, end of period.1 Preliminary estimate.

Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

3 Book value, end of period.4 Monthly average for year and total

for month.


MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTSBoth exports and imports increased about 12 percent in March, exceeding average 1948 levels.

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,600

1,400 -

1,200

1,000 -

800

600 -

400

200 -

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1600

- 1,400

1,200

- 1,000

800

- 600

400

~ 200

1936-38 1943 O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D1949

* RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS.** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS.SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

1936-38 monthly average1943 monthly average1945 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average1948 monthly average1948: January

February _MarchApril _ _ _ _ _ _ _May~.JuneJuly,August --SeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember. . _ _

1949: Januarv _ _FebruaryMarch _

Exports 1

2471 080

877849

1 2781, 0511,0921, 0861, 1381, 1201, 1021, 0141,020

986926

1, 020819

1, 2841 0861 0291 152

Imports *

207282346410478589545582666528549616558598558597550721

589568632

Excess ofexports

40798531439801461546504473592553398461387368423269563497461520

1 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.1 Recorded general merchandise imports.

Souroeg: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.


PURCHASING POWERNATIONAL INCOMENational income declined in the 1st quarter of 1949 but was still above the rates for the first threequarters of 1948.


ANNUAL TOTALS

150

100.


200

1939 1944 1946 1947- 1948

CORPORATE PROFITS ANDINVENTORY VALUATIONADJUSTMENT

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except as noted). COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

193919441945 _ _ _19461947__ _ _ _ _1948 l

1947: Third quarterFourth quarter _

1948: First quarterSecond quarterThird quarter, _Fourth quarter *

1949: First Quarter2 _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Totalnationalincome

72. 5182.4181.7179.3202. 5224.9

Compensa-tion of

employees

47. 8121. 1122. 9117. 3127. 5139. 4

Proprietors'and rental

income

14.734. 136.041.846.050. 9

Net interest

4.23. 13.03.44.34. 9

Corporate profits and inventoryvaluation adjustment

Total

5.824.019. 816. 824. 729.8

Profitsbeforetaxes

6.524.320.421. 829.832.8

Inventoryvaluation

adjustment-0.7-.3-.6

-5.0-5. 1-3.0

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted200.6212.8213. 9222. 3228. 2(2) 235.3229.0

127. 6132.2134.0136.3142.4144. 7142. 5

44.448.649. 951.650. 651.449.6

4. 44.54. 74.85.05.25.3

24. 327. 525.329.630.2(2) 34.031. 6

29. 132.430.532. 134.0(2) 34. 429. 6

-4.8-4. 9-5.3-2.5-3.9-.4

4-2.01 Preliminary estimates.2 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).


CORPORATE PROFITSCorporate profits dropped in the 1st quarter of 1949, reflecting a declinein sales and prices.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

PROFITS BEFORE TAXES"

DIVIDEND PAYMENTSXX#:*

PROFITS> AFTER

TAXES

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).


Period

1929. .19391943 _ 19461947 . ... _.1948

1947: Third quarter -Fourth quarter __ _ _

1948: First quarterSecond quarterThird quarterFourth quarter 1. _ _ _ _. _

1949: First quarter l

Corporateprofits

before taxes

9.86. 5

24.521.829.832.2

Corporatetax

liability

1.41.5

14.29.0

11.712.5

Corporate profits after taxes

Total

8.45.0

10.412.818.119.7

Dividendpayments

5.83.84.55.66.97.8

Undistributedprofits

2.61.25.97.2

11.211.9

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted

29. 132.430. 532. 134.034. 429. 6

11.412.711. 812.513.313. 611,8

17.719.718. 719.620. 820. 817.8

6.97.17.47.47.78. 38.7

10.812.611.312.213. 112. 59. 1

1 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.

NOTE.No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment,taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.

Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).

See p. 20 for profits before

21


PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income dropped in February as a result of decreased employment and lower farm income. PreliminaryMarch data indicate that income from salaries and wages dropped again.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS2 5 0

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS2 5 0

2 00

I 50

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME

SAL ARIES, WAGES, ETC.

I I I ! 1 ! IJ F . M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D939 944 946 1947 1948

TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASHING STARTED IN SEPTEMBER.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

193919441945 _ _ .1946 . _19471948 _ _ _

1948: January _February. _ _MarchAprilMayJune__ _ _ _ _ _JulyAugust--SeptemberOctober _NovemberDecember

1949; January.. _ _February .__ _ _ _March l _ _ _ _

Totalpersonalincome

72. 6164. 5170.3178. 1195. 2213. 6

Salaries, wages,and other

labor income

45.7116. 1116.8111. 4121.9134. 3

Proprietors'and rental

income

14. 734. 136.041.846. 050. 9

Dividendsand interest

9.210.611.413.515. 617.2

Social securityand GI pay-

ments

3.03. 66.2

11.411.711. 1

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted208. 8206. 4205.7208. 6209. 2214. 4214. 8216. 7217. 3218. 5219. 9221. 0219. 2216.3214. 3

129. 3128. 8128. 5128. 8131.0133. 4135. 5138.0138. 8139. 6140. 1139. 8138.4136. 8134. 5

51.849. 648. 451. 250.453. 051.250. 350.450. 751.452. 151.449.749.0

16. 516. 616. 616.716.816. 917.017.317.517.818. 118.418.318.318.3

11.211.412.211.911.011. 111. 111. 110. 610. 410. 310.711. 111.512.5

9.9.

1 Preliminary estimates. Data became available after chart was prepared.NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/


CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVINGIn the 1st quarter of 1949, consumer spending declined for the first time since the war period.



200

ANNUAL RATES,SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

150

* PERSONAL II

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

19391940. _ ._ _ ._1941_ __19421943_._ . .1944...19451946...19471948

1947: Third quarterFourth quarter. _

1948: First quarter _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _Second quarterThird quarter _Fourth quarter

1949: First quarter 2 _ _

Disposablepersonalincome l

70.275. 792.0

116.2131. 6145.6149. 4159.2173.6192. 6

Less: Personalconsumptionexpenditures

67.572. 182.390. 8

101. 6111.4122. 8147.4164.8177. 7

Equals: Per-sonal saving

2.73. 79.8

25. 430.034.226.611.88.8

14. 9


175.0180.9183. 9190. 2196.2199.4198.0

165.6171. 1172. 5177. 3180. 1181.0178.0

9.49.7

11.412. 916. 118.420.0

1 Income less taxes.2 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).

23


PER CAPITA INCOME'A decrease in prices during the 1st quarter of 1949 more than offset the decrease in per capitaincome. This resulted in a small increase in the real purchasing power of consumers.

400

1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948

** CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1948 *IOO.

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

2 31947

2 31948

2 31949


Period

193919401941194219431944_1945194619471948

1947:

1948:

1949:

Third quarter . Fourth quarter.First quarter _ _. _ ___Second quarterThird quarter _ _Fourth quarterFirst quarter 4 _ _ _ _ _ _

Per capita disposable personalincome *

Currentdollars

$536574691863964

1,0541,0701, 1271,2051,313

1948 dollars 8

$923981

, 125,256,306,391,374,351,294

1,313

Annual rates, seasonallyadjusted

$1,2121,2461,2631,2861,3181,3511,336

$1, 2911,2911,2891, 2911,2951,3421,347

Consumers'price index81948 = 100

58. 158.561.468.773.875.877.983.493. 1

100.0Not adjustedfor seasonal

variation93.996.598.099. 6

101.8100. 799.2

1 Income less taxes.

2 Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100.

3 The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from

December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. Theunadjusted index will be found on page 2.


Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor (except as noted).Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

DOLL

2.00

1.50

1. 00

,50

0

2.OO

1.50

1. 00

.500

X CUFi

SOUR(

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGSAverage hourly earnings in manufacturing industries continued to drop in March, and were about 1 cent belowthe postwar peak reached in January.

ARS PER HOUR . DOLLARS PER HOUR

ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIESMONTHLY AVERAGE

1948 (

IDOL

60

40

20

0

100

80

60

40

20

0

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGSThe combination of shorter hours and lower hourly earnings reduced average weekly earnings inmanufacturing industries in March to $53.37- $1.64 below the all-time peak of last December.

_ A R S PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK

^ MANUFACTURING/ \I948 C

/ %.-^-

-''' r*/ CURREN"

, , , , , , , , ,

0

" C

LLARS**

~^~*-~^

JOLLARS

M i i i 1 i i i i i

*m\m~**r~~

1 M M 1 1 M 1 1

I M 1 1 1 M 1 1 1

40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949

BITUMINOUS COAL MINING

1948 D

fJ7,-'V\J /CURREN

Si i i i i i i i i

01

r

.LARS**

-i.,;^y-)OLLARS

1 M 1 1 1 M 1 II

vy"v

1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 t

*

I I 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1 1

40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949

* EARNINGS DATA DISTORTED DURING THESE MONTHS BECAUSE OF WORK STOPPAGES OR VACATIONS. **C


60

40

20

0

100

80

60

40

20

0

URRENT DOLLAF

RETAIL TRADE

1948 D

^^^CURREN'

I i i i i i i i |

0

[

.LARS**\^^

)OLLARS

M i l l 1 1 1 1 1

+*--++*

I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

p*

40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949

BUILDING CONSTRUCTIONMONTHLY AVERAGE

1948 D

/^/' /

""X/ CURREN"s

i i i | i t i i i

01

I

.LARS**

^--^^^^"^t)OLLARS

M I 1 1 1 , M I .

^f^^***"*^

1 1 I I 1 1 I 1 M 1

1 I M 1 i M 1 1 1

40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 1949s DIVIDED er CONSUMERS' PRICE NDEX ON BASE OF 1948=100

ABLE.

[Selected industries]

Period

1939 monthly average1941 monthly average. _1944 monthly average1945 monthly average __1946 monthly average _1947 monthly average1948 monthly average 3 __ __1948: February _ __

MarchApril _ _ _ _ _ _MaviVJ.O,JJune _ - --JulyAugustSeptemberOctober _ _ _NovemberDecember 3

1949* January 3Februarv 3March 3 _ _ _ _ _

Manufacturing

Currentdollars

$23, 8629. 5846.0844. 3943.7449.2553. 1551.7552.0751.7951. 8652.8552.9554.0554. 1854. 6554.5655.0354.4154. 2553. 37

1948dollars 2

$41. 0748. 1862.4456.9852. 4552. 9053. 1552.9153.4152.3752.0752. 6952. 1753.0453. 1753. 9054. 2354.96

. 54.5254. 9653. 91

Retail trade

Currentdollars

$21. 1721.9426. 5828. 3132. 5536. 6739. 8338.3338.8939.2739. 8440. 5241. 1941. 1940. 4840. 3239. 6740.6241. 7941. 56

1948dollars 2

$36. 4435.7336.0236.3439.0339. 3939.8339. 1939.8939.7140.0040.4040.5840. 4239.7339.7639.4340.5841. 8742. 11

Bituminous coal mining

Currentdollars

$23. 8830.8651.2752. 2558.0366.8672.0670. 5474.844

49. 53-74.0873. 8767. 6278. 1075. 5276.4073.5275. 7976.8475. 65

1948dollars 2

$41. 1050.2669. 4767.0769. 5871.8172.0672. 1376. 764

50. 0874.3873. 6566. 6276. 6474. 1175.3473.0875.7176.9976. 65

Building construction 1

Currentdollars

$30. 3935. 1452. 1853.7356. 2463.3068. 8565. 1665.8766.4567.2269. 5370.4770.9171.2970. 5969.3972.3370.9670. 38

1948dollars 2

$52. 3157.2370. 7068.9767.4367.9968.8566.6367. 5667. 1967. 4969.3269.4369.5969.9669.6268. 9872.2671. 1071. 31

1 Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.2 Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100.3 Preliminary estimate.4 Based on pay period during coal stoppage.Source: Department of Labor.

See note 3 to table on page 24.


FARM INCOMECosh farm income increased seasonally in March, and was about equal to that in March 1948.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS4

0 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

1947 1948 1949

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

Period

1939 monthly average _1941 monthly average1942 monthly average _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _1943 monthly average1944 monthly average _ _ _ _ _1945 monthly average1946 monthly average _ _ _ _1947 monthly average1948 monthly average1948: February _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _

MarchApril _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _Mavivj.a,j _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _June _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _JulyAugust _ _ - _ _ _SeptemberOctober _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _NovemberDecember _ _

1949: January 4 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _February 4 _March 4 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Farm income(millions ofcurrent

dollars) l

723981

1, 340], 6781, 7531, 8572, 1362, 5422, 6091, 8621, 9322,0752, 1192,4372, 6932, 7223, 1323,7143, 3142,7402,3831, 7831, 940

Prices paid byfarmers (incl.interest and

taxes) 1948 =100 2

49. 853 060. 265. 167. 969. 177. 592. 8

100. 099. 699. 2

100. 0100. 4100. 8100. 8100. 8100. 4100. 099. 299. 699. 698.498. 8

Farm income(millions of1948 dollars) 3

1, 4521 8512, 2262, 5782, 5822, 6872, 7562, 7392, 6091, 8691, 9482,0752, 1112,4182, 6722, 7003, 1203,7143, 3412,7512,3931,8121, 964

1 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.2 Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948 = 100.3 Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100.4 Preliminary.

Source: Department of Agriculture.27


PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURESThe decrease in expenditures for nondurable goods more than accounted for the drop in total consumptionexpenditures in the 1st quarter of 1949.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

200BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

200

150

100

^ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS; BASED ON PRELIMINARY DATA.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ( E X C E P T AS NOTED).- COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

193919441945-19461947_1948

1947:

1948:

1949:

Third quarter ._Fourth quarterFirst quarterSecond quarter., _Third quarter _ _ _ _ _ _Fourth quarterFirst quarter *_ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _

Personal consumption expenditures

Total

67.5111.4122.8147.4164. 8177. 7

Nondurablegoods

35.367.575.487.596.5

103. 6

Durablegoods

6.76.98.3

16.221.022. 7

Services

25.537.039.243.647.351.4


165. 6171. 1172. 5177.3180. 1181.0178.0

96.8100.2101.4103.7104. 3105. 1102.0

21.122.121.322. 823. 722. 922. 5

47.748.849.850.852. 153.053. 5


NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).


CONSUMER CREDITConsumer credit increased $43 million in March. Some expansion in instalment credit (loan andautomobile sale) was offset in part by small declines in charge accounts and other consumer credit.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS2 0

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS2 0

I 8

1943 1946 1947END OF YEAR 1947

M J J A S

1948END OF MONTH

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.


End of period

193919431946 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _19471948 -_ _ _ _ _ - - -1948' February

March _ _AprilMay _ _JuneJulyAugust _ _SeptemberOctoberNovember _ _ _ _December

1949* JanuaryFebruary 2 _March 2

Totalconsumer

creditoutstanding

7,9695, 378

10, 19113, 67316, 31913, 30213, 80514, 05914,31114, 66914, 72314, 91615, 23115, 51815, 73916, 31915, 74915, 33615, 379

Instalment credit

Total

4,4242,0014,0006,4348,6006, 5486, 8217,0947, 3187,5337,7387,9728, 1908,2338, 3228,6008,4258, 3408,447

Automobilesale

credit

1, 267175544

1, 1511, 9611, 2541, 3671,4681, 5361,6021,6891,7811, 8581,8891, 9221, 9611, 9651, 9962, 113

Other salecredit arid

loans

3, 1571,8263,4565,2836, 6395, 2945,4545,6265, 7825,9316, 0496, 1916, 3326, 3446,4006, 6396, 4606,3446,334

Chargeaccounts

1, 5441, 4983, 0543, 6123,8543,0613, 2753,2363,2453,3523, 1853, 1303,2273,4573, 5573,8543,4573, 1763, 141

Otherconsumer

credit l

2,0011,8793, 1373, 6273,8653, 6933, 7093,7293,7483,7843,8003, 8143,8143,8283, 8603,8653, 8673,8203, 791

1 Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.2 Preliminary estimates.NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCEBANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTSAfter o contraction in January and February, bank loans increased in March.

125 -

100 -

75 -

50 -

25 -

ONS

__

-

OF DOLLARS

1W"

XXx*

if

I-

125

100

1929 1939 1945END OF YEAR

SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sys tem

INVESTMENT INU. S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

1948END OF MONTH

1949

PR EL I Ml NARY 5 TIM A TE


TP *-./-! f^t -r^^^^Aii

MONEY SUPPLYMoney supply declined again in March by about $2 billion, chiefly as a result of reduced demand deposits.



TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY( EXCLUDING U.S. GOV'T. DEPOSITS)

TIME DEPOSITS

liADJUSTED DEMAND DEPOSITS :

CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS *B "

I 50

1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N DEND OF YEAR "9^7 1948 1949

END OF MONTHSOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


End of period

1929 - . ...1939 ..1941 ... -19431945 . _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _19461947 _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _1948-1948: February _

March. .April ._ _MayJune . . .. - .July. . . . . _ - _AugustSeptemberOctober _ _NovemberDecember

1949: JanuaryFebruary _ _ _ _March3 _ _ _ _

Total moneysupply

54.663.376.3

112. 3150. 9164.0170. 0168. 7167. 1164.0165.0165. 2165. 7166.2166.7166. 9168.0167. 9168.7168.0166. 1164.0

Currencyoutsidebanks

3. 66.49.6

18.826. 526.726. 525. 725.725.625.425.425. 625.525. 625.725.725. 925. 725. 225. 125.0

Adjusteddemand

deposits l

22. 829. 839. 060. 875. 983.387. 185. 884.681.582.782.882. 783.483.883. 985.085.085. 885.383. 381.0

Timedeposits 2

28. 227. 127. 732.748. 554.056. 457.356. 856.956. 957.057.457.357. 357. 357. 357. 057. 357.657. 758.0

1 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of col-

lection.2 Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System.8 Preliminary estimate.NOTE.Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROMAND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLICThe cash surplus of about $3 billion during the first quarter, which includes the seasonally highMarch tax receipts, was less than half as great as during the same quarter of 1948.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARSI 6


1946 1947 1948 1949

EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS

1:1 EXCESS OF CA'SHLJ

1946 1947 1948C A L E N D A R Y E A R S

PREL.EST.

1949

SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Calendar years

Calendar year total:1946 _ _ _ _ _19471948 - _ _ -

Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal:1946: First quarter _ _ . _ _ _ - - _ -

Second quarterThird quarter _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _Fourth quarter

1947: First quarter _ __Second quarter _ _ _ _Third quarter _ _ _ _Fourth quarter

1948- First quarterSecond quarter _ _ _ _ _ _ _Third quarterFourth quarter. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

1949: First Quarter 2_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Federal cashreceipts fromthe public 1

41, 42644, 27944, 920

12, 6329, 4629, 7029, 630

14, 3459, 847

10, 2209, 869

15, 03710, 23810, 0859, 560

13, 122

Federal cashpayments tothe public 1

41, 37238, 58436, 954

12, 24412, 0088,4498, 671

9, 16310, 62810, 2578 536

8 6379,0338, 798

10, 486

9,931

Excess of re-ceipts ( + ) or

payments ( )

+ 54+ 5,695+ 7,967

+ 388 2 547+ 1 252

+ 959

+ 5 182 781

37+ 1 331

+ 6 400+ 1 205+ 1 287

925

+ 3. 1911 Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; pre-

viously, they were reported as expenditures.2 Preliminary estimate.NOTE.,Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.

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05-1949

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