Zurich Open Repository and Archive University of Zurich Main Library Strickhofstrasse 39 CH-8057 Zurich www.zora.uzh.ch Year: 2016 The dynamics of insurance prices Henriet, Dominique ; Klimenko, Nataliya ; Rochet, Jean-Charles Abstract: We develop a continuous-time general-equilibrium model to rationalise the dynamics of in- surance prices in a competitive insurance market with fnancial frictions. Insurance companies choose underwriting and fnancing policies to maximise shareholder value. The equilibrium price dynamics are explicit, which allows simple numerical simulations and generates testable implications. In particular, we fnd that the equilibrium price of insurance is (weakly) predictable and the insurance sector always realises positive expected profts. Moreover, rather than true cycles, insurance prices exhibit asymmetric reversals caused by the refection of the aggregate capacity process at the dividend and recapitalisation boundaries. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/grir.2015.5 Posted at the Zurich Open Repository and Archive, University of Zurich ZORA URL: https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-130214 Journal Article Accepted Version Originally published at: Henriet, Dominique; Klimenko, Nataliya; Rochet, Jean-Charles (2016). The dynamics of insurance prices. The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 41(1):2-18. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/grir.2015.5
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Zurich Open Repository andArchiveUniversity of ZurichMain LibraryStrickhofstrasse 39CH-8057 Zurichwww.zora.uzh.ch
Abstract: We develop a continuous-time general-equilibrium model to rationalise the dynamics of in-surance prices in a competitive insurance market with financial frictions. Insurance companies chooseunderwriting and financing policies to maximise shareholder value. The equilibrium price dynamics areexplicit, which allows simple numerical simulations and generates testable implications. In particular,we find that the equilibrium price of insurance is (weakly) predictable and the insurance sector alwaysrealises positive expected profits. Moreover, rather than true cycles, insurance prices exhibit asymmetricreversals caused by the reflection of the aggregate capacity process at the dividend and recapitalisationboundaries.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/grir.2015.5
Posted at the Zurich Open Repository and Archive, University of ZurichZORA URL: https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-130214Journal ArticleAccepted Version
Originally published at:Henriet, Dominique; Klimenko, Nataliya; Rochet, Jean-Charles (2016). The dynamics of insurance prices.The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 41(1):2-18.DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/grir.2015.5
♥t♦♥s |µ(p)| tr♥s ♦t t♦ r② s♠ s ♦♠♣r t♦ σ(p) s t t ♥ t ♥tr ♣♥s ♥
r ♠♥ tr ♦ t ②♥♠s ♦ t ♣r ♣r♦ss pt s ts rt♦♥ t t ♦♥rs
♦ t ♥tr (0, p) ♥s t ♣r rrss
Pr rrss
rt♦♥ ♣r♦♣rt② ♦ t rt rsr ♣r♦ss ♥ ♦r ♠♦ ♥s rrss ♦ t
♣r ♦ ♥sr♥ ♠♣r ♦r s s♦♥ tt t ♥sr♥ ♠rt tr♥ts s♦t ♠rt
♣ss rtr③ ② ♥ ♣r♠♠s t♦tr t ♥ ①♣♥s♦♥ ♦ ♥srrs ♣ts ♥
r ♠rt ♣ss rtr③ ② rs♥ ♣r♠♠s t♦tr t ♦♥trt♦♥ ♦ ♥srrs
♣ts
r ♠♦ ♥ s t♦ ♦♠♣t t ①♣t rt♦♥ ♦ ♣s ♦ t ♥rrt♥ ②
② s♥ t ②♥♠s ♦ t ♣r ♦ ♥sr♥ ♥ ♥ qt♦♥ ♥ ♣rtr t ①♣t
rt♦♥ ♦ t s♦t ♠rt ♣s ♥ ♥sr♥ ♣rs ♥ ♠sr s t ①♣t
t♠ ♥ ♦r t ♣r♦ss pt t♦ r 0 strt♥ r♦♠ t stt p ♥ s♠r s♦♥ t
①♣t rt♦♥ ♦ t r ♠rt ♣s rs♥ ♥sr♥ ♣rs ♥ ♠sr ② t
①♣t t♠ tt t ♣r♦ss pt ♥s t♦ r t stt p strt♥ r♦♠ 0
♦ ♦r♠③ ts t Ts(p) ♥♦t t ①♣t t♠ tt t ♣r ♣r♦ss pt ts ♥ ♦rr t♦
r ♥② stt p ≤ p strt♥ r♦♠ t stt p ♥ t Th(p) t ①♣t t♠ t ts t♦ r
t stt p strt♥ r♦♠ ♥② p ≤ p ❲ rr t♦ T s ≡ Ts(0) s t r rt♦♥ ♦ t s♦t
♠rt ♣s ♥ t♦ T h ≡ Th(0) s t r rt♦♥ ♦ t r ♠rt ♣s
Pr♦♣♦st♦♥ r rt♦♥ ♦ t s♦t ♠rt ♣s ♥ ♦♠♣t s T s ≡ Ts(0)
r ♥t♦♥ Ts(p) stss
1− µ(p)T ′s(p)−
σ2(p)
2T ′′s (p) = 0,
t r ♦ t trtr ♦♥ ♥rrt♥ ②s ♥ ♦♥ ♥ rr♥t♦♥ t
t t ♦♥r② ♦♥t♦♥s Ts(p) = 0 ♥ T ′s(p) = 0
r rt♦♥ ♦ t r ♠rt ♣s ♥ ♦♠♣t s T h ≡ Th(0) r ♥t♦♥
Th(p) stss
1 + µ(p)T ′h(p) +
σ2(p)
2T ′′h (p) = 0,
t t ♦♥r② ♦♥t♦♥s Th(p) = 0 ♥ T ′h(0) = 0
Pr♦♦ ♦ Pr♦♣♦st♦♥ ♦ r t t gp0(p) ♥♦t t ①♣t t♠ tt s
♥ t♦ r s♦♠ stt p0 strt♥ r♦♠ ♥② p ≥ p0 r p0 ≤ p ≤ p ♥ Ts(p0) =
Ts(p) + gp0(p) ♥ ts Ts(p) = Ts(p0) − gp0(p) ② t ②♥♠♥ t♦r♠ ♥t♦♥ gp0(p)
♠st sts② t
1 + µ(p)g′p0(p) +σ2(p)
2g′′p0(p) = 0.
❯s♥ t t tt g′p0(p) = −T ′s(p) ♥ g′′p0(p) = −T ′′
s (p) ♦♥ ♦t♥s ♦♥r②
♦♥t♦♥ Ts(p) = 0 rts t t tt t p t t♠ t♦ r p s ③r♦ rs t ♦♥r②
♦♥t♦♥ T ′s(p) = 0 ♠rs t♦ t rt♦♥ ♦ t ♣r ♦ ♥sr♥ t p s♠ r
♠♥ts ♣♣② t♦ sts t ♦♥r② ♦♥t♦♥s ♦r t ♥t♦♥ Th(p) t♦ t ②♥♠♥
t♦r♠ ♣♣s rt②
t♥ s ♥ t ♥tr ♣♥s ♦ r r♣♦rt rs♣t② t s ♦ T s ♥
T h s ♥t♦♥s ♦ ♣r♠tr α ♦r t♦ r♥t s ♦ β rt♥ s ♣♥ ♦ r
r♣♦rts t ♦rrs♣♦♥♥ r♥ T s − T h
s ♥♠r rsts r② s♦ tt ♦r ♣r♠tr ♦♠♥t♦♥s ♠♣②♥ r s
tt② ♦ ♠♥ ♦r ♥sr♥ r β ♥ ♦r α t ②s ♠r♥ ♥ ♦r ♠♦
r s②♠♠tr ♥ t s♦t ♠rt ♣s t♥s t♦ sst♥t② ♦♥r t♥ t r ♠rt
♣s ♣♦t♥t ①♣♥t♦♥ ♦r ts tr rsts ♦♥ t ♦srt♦♥ tt ♥ t stt♥ t
♥ st ♠♥ ♦r ♥sr♥ t ♥♦♥♦s ♦tt② s ♠♦♥♦t♦♥② rs♥ ♥t♦♥ ♦
p ♥ t ♥♦♥♦s ♦tt② s ♦r ♥ t stts t r ♣r ♦ ♥sr♥ t s②st♠
t② ♥s ♠♦r t♠ t♦ ♠ ♦♥r ♠♦ rtr t♥ t♦ ♠ ♥ ♣r ♠♦ ♦r t
♣r♠tr ♦♠♥t♦♥s ♠♣②♥ ② ♥st ♠♥ ♦r ♥sr♥ t ♥♦♥♦s ♦tt②
♣ttr♥ s U s♣ ♥ t r♥ t♥ t r rt♦♥s ♦ t s♦t ♥ r ♠rt
♣ss s ♠♦st ♥
♦♥r♥ ♦r
♦ st② t ②♥♠s ♦ t ♣r ♦ ♥sr♥ ♥ t ♦♥ r♥ ♦♦ t ts r♦ ♥st②
♥t♦♥ tt rts t ♣r♦♣♦rt♦♥ ♦ t♠ tt t ♣r ♣r♦ss s♣♥s ♥ s stt ♥
t ♦♥ r♥ ♥ t ♣r ②♥♠s ♥ t ttr ♥ ♦♠♣t ② s♦♥ t ♦rr
r ♣tr
r r rt♦♥ ♦ s♦t ♥ r ♠rts
0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9α
5
10
15
Ts
α2.435
2.440
2.445
2.450
2.455
2.460
Th
α
5
10
15
Ts - Th
β = 3
β = 0.5
β = 3
β = 0.5
β = 3
β = 0.5
0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.90.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.90.1
♦ts ts r r♣♦rts t r rt♦♥ ♦ t s♦t ♠rt ♣s T s t t ♣♥ t r rt♦♥ ♦ t r♠rt ♣s Th t ♥tr ♣♥ ♥ tr r♥ T s − Th t rt ♣♥ s ♥t♦♥s ♦ ♣r♠tr α ♦ ♥s♦rrs♣♦♥ t♦ β = 0.5 ♥ s ♥s rr t♦ β = 3 Pr♠tr ♦♠♥t♦♥s t r ♦r β ♥ ♦r r α
♦rrs♣♦♥ t♦ t st ♥st ♠♥ ♦r ♥sr♥ tr ♣r♠tr s r st s ♦♦s r = 0.04 σ0 = 0.05γ = 0.1
♦♠♦♦r♦ qt♦♥ t♠t② ②s
f(p) =C0
σ2(p)exp
(∫ p
0
2µ(s)
σ2(s)ds)
,
r t ♦♥st♥t C0 s s tt∫ p
0 f(p)dp = 1
rt ♣♥ ♥ r ♣ts t t②♣ ♣ttr♥ ♦ ts r♦ ♥st② s♦♥ tt
t ttr t♥s t♦ ♦♥♥trt ♥ t stts t t ♦ ♥♦♥♦s ♦tt② s ♣r♦♣rt②
♦ t r♦ ♥st② ♥t♦♥ s♦s tt t ♥t s♦s ♥rr ② ♥srrs ♠② ♥rt
♣rsst♥ s♦ tt t s②st♠ ♥ s♣♥ qt s♦♠ t♠ ♥ t stts t ♥sr♥ ♣rs
♥ ♦ ♥sr♥ ♣t② s ♥ t r♥t qr♠ ♠♦s t ♥♥ rt♦♥s s
r♥♥r♠r ♥ ♥♥♦ ♠♥♦ P ♥ ♦t ♣rsst♥ ♠rs s
♥tr ♦♥sq♥ ♦ t ♣t② st♠♥ts ♠♣♠♥t ② ♥sr♥ ♦♠♣♥s ♦♦♥
♣r♦t ♥ ♦sss ♥ ♣rtr ♥①♣t ♦sss r ♦♦ ② r s ♦ ♦♣rt♦♥s
♠♣②♥ tt t ♠② t ♦♥ t♠ ♦r ♥srrs t♦ rst♦r tr ♣t②
r rt ♦tt② ♥ r♦ ♥st② ♦ t ♥sr♥ ♣r
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10p
-0.0008
-0.0006
-0.0004
-0.0002
0.0002
0.0004
μ(p)
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10p
0.060
0.065
0.070
0.075
0.080
σ(p)
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10p
7
8
9
10
11
f(p)
♦ts ts r ♣ts t t②♣ ♣ttr♥s ♦ t ♥sr♥ ♣r rt µ(p) t rt ♣♥ ♥sr♥ ♣r ♦tt② σ(p)t ♥tr ♣♥ ♥ t r♦ ♥st② ♦ t ♥sr♥ ♣r f(p) t rt ♣♥ ♦r α >
√2r ♥ β > 1 Pr♠tr
s r = 0.04 σ0 = 0.05 γ = 0.1 α = 0.5 ♥ β = 2
♦s
♦♥s♦♥
s ♣♣r ♣rs♥ts ♥r qr♠ rs♦♥ ♦ t ss r♥ t♦r② ♠♦ ♥ ♦♥t♥♦s