Zero Carbon Britain in a Zero Carbon World Can Renewables Supply the Future Energy Needs of: • The World? • Europe? • Individual EU Countries? • What Might a Renewable Future Look Like? Godfrey Boyle Professor of Renewable Energy, The Open University Royal Society of Arts, London February 10th 2011
Godfrey Boyle Professor of Renewable Energy, The Open University Royal Society of Arts, London February 10th 2011. Zero Carbon Britain in a Zero Carbon World. Can Renewables Supply the Future Energy Needs of: The World? Europe? Individual EU Countries? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Zero Carbon Britain in a Zero Carbon World
Can Renewables Supply the Future Energy Needs of:
• The World? • Europe?• Individual EU
Countries?• What Might a
Renewable Future Look Like?
Godfrey BoyleProfessor of Renewable Energy, The Open University
Royal Society of Arts, London February 10th 2011
Can Renewables Power the World?Jacobson & Delucci, Stanford
University, Scientific American 2009 & Energy Policy 2011
World Power Demand by 2030: 11.5-16.9 TW (c.f. 16 TW now)
Supplied by:
WIND: 3.8 million wind turbines
SOLAR: 1,700 milllion rooftop PV systems; 49,000 Concentrating Solar plants
PV 40,000 Large Plants
WATER: 490,000 tidal turbines
WAVE: 720,000 Wave plants
HYDRO 900 Large Plants
Geothermal: 5,350 Plants
C.f. world production of cars & light trucks: 73 million/yr
Greenpeace Energy [R]Evolution & Reference Scenarios[R]Evolution in 2050: Renewables >80% of (Reduced) Demand
WWF Energy Report 2011• 95% of World
Energy Renewable by 2050
• Detailed Analysis & Scenarios by Ecofys
Energy Establishment Catches Up? IEA Blue Map & High Renewables Scenarios
In IEA Blue Map Scenario Renewables supply 48% of World Electricity in 2050
In IEA BLUE hi REN Scenario Variant, Renewables Supply 75% of World Electricity by 2050
Can Renewables Power Europe? European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) 2050 Scenario
• Renewables Provide c.95% of EU Final Energy by 2050
European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050 Report, 2010
Various
Pathways to
40%-100%
Energy from
Renewables
by 2050Authors:
Mc Kinsey Imperial College Oxford Economics
KEMA, ECF
What Could it Look Like?Energy REvolution Vision• Supergrid Linking
EU & North Africa• Wind & Solar are
Complementary• Smart Grids in
Cities• Local Mini
& Micro Grids
8
Coping with Variability: Combining Regional Demands Reduces Volatility
Big Monthly and Daily Variations for Individual Countries (Grey)
Variations Greatly Reduced When Combined (Green)
Renewable & Energy-Efficient Cities & Suburbs
• Low Energy Buildings, Old and New
• Roofs and Facades Produce Power & Heat
• Local Combined Heat & Power Plants
Low/Zero Carbon Scenarios for Individual European Countries• UK: Zero Carbon Britain: 100%
by 2030. c.f. UK Climate Committee: 60% by 2030, 80% by 2050
• ?Mark Barrett SeeScen Model?• Germany: Ministry of
Environment & Nature Conservation (BMU) Report =>
• Denmark. Danish Society of Engineers, 2009
• Danish Climate Commission, 2010
• Scenarios for Spain, France, Finland, Turkey etc..
Danish Climate Commission Report 2010• Fossil fuels phased out: 100% renewable energy by 2050
• www.open.ac.uk
• Total costs similar to to conventional
energy incl. fuel• Job creation• No/low carbon
& pollutant emissions
• Energy Security• Technology exists• But Strong
Political Commitment Required!
Conclusion: Renewables Can Supply World’s Energy Needs by 2050