Zbigniew Brzezinski Between Two Ages

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BETWEENTWOAGESAmerica'sRoleintheTechnetronicEra

ZbigniewBrzezinski

THEVIKINGPRESS/NEWYORKCopyright1970byZbigniewBrzezinskiAllrightsreserved

Firstpublishedin1970byTheVikingPress,Inc.625MadisonAvenue,NewYork,N.Y.10022PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanadabyTheMacmillanCompanyofCanadaLimited

ISBN 670160415LibraryofCongresscatalogcardnumber:76104162

PrintedinU.S.AbyH.WolffBookMfg.Co.Preparedundertheauspicesofthe ResearchInstituteonCommunistAffairs,ColumbiaUniversity

Portionsofthisbookappearedin Encounter indifferentform

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ForIan,Mark,andMika

AcknowledgmentsThoughthisbookdealswithcommunismonlyinpartandthenprimarilyinrelationtothebroaderissueswithwhichIamconcernedtheResearchInstituteonCommunistAffairsofColumbiaUniversityprovidedmewithinvaluableresearchassistanceandwithacongenialandstimulatingsetting.MycolleaguesattheInstitutelittlerealizehowveryhelpfultheyhavebeeninthegradualprocessofshapingmyideas,testingmyviews,andenlargingmyperspectives.Themanuscriptwasreadandcriticizedbyanumberoffriendsandcolleagues.IamespeciallygratefultoProfessorSamuelP.HuntingtonforhistrenchantcriticismsandveryhelpfulrecommendationstoProfessorAlbertA.Mavrinac,whomaintainedourfriendlytraditionofhisquestioningmyargumentsandofforcingmetorethinksomeofmypropositionstoMrs.ChristineDodson,theformerAdministrativeAssistantoftheResearchInstitute,whopreparedaveryconstructiveandhighlyperceptivechapterlengthcritiqueoftheentiredraftandtoProfessorAlexanderErlichforsteeringmeawayfromsomeeconomicpitfalls.Iamalsomost obligedandgratefultoMissSophiaSluzar,currentlytheAdministrativeAssistant,whoveryablysupervisedtheoverallpreparationofthemanuscriptandwhoearlierwasinstrumentalinpreparingthetablesandassemblingtheneededdata.MissTobyTrister,myresearchassistant,wasindefatigableinexposingmyinaccuracies,infillingbibliographicgaps,andincompletingtheresearch.MissDorothyRodnite,MissMichelleElwyn,andMr.MyronGutmannamiablyandefficientlyevenwhenundergreatpressuresoftimedevotedtheirenergiestothecompletionofthemanuscript.ToallofthemIoweadebtwhichIampleasedtoacknowledge.IalsowishtonotemyobligationtoMr.MarshallBestofTheVikingPress,onwhoseexperienceandwisecounselIoftenrelied,andtoMr.StanleyHochmanforhissensitiveeditorialassistance.Aspecialmentionisduetomywife.InallmywritingIhavenevercomeacrossamoreconscientiousreader,amoreferociouscritic,andamoredetermineddareIsayobstinate?perfectionist.Ihavenohesitationinsaying,thoughonlynowIsayitwithrelief,thatanymeritthisessaymayhaveisinlargemeasureduetoherefforts.Z.B. October1969

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Contents

CONTENTS.................................................................................................................................................... 3

THEGLOBALIMPACTOF THE................................................................................................................ 8

TECHNETRONICREVOLUTION............................................................................................................... 8

1. THEONSETOFTHETECHNETRONICAGE................................................................................................... 10NewSocialPatterns ................................................................................................................................ 10SocialExplosion/Implosion ..................................................................................................................... 11GlobalAbsorption................................................................................................................................... 13

2. THEAMBIVALENTDISSEMINATOR ............................................................................................................ 15TheAmericanImpact .............................................................................................................................. 15NewImperialism? ................................................................................................................................... 18

3. GLOBALGHETTOS................................................................................................................................... 19ProspectsforChange .............................................................................................................................. 20TheSubjectiveTransformation ................................................................................................................ 21ThePoliticalVacuum .............................................................................................................................. 25

4. GLOBAL FRAGMENTATIONANDUNIFICATION ........................................................................................... 26FragmentedCongestion .......................................................................................................................... 26TowardaPlanetaryConsciousness ......................................................................................................... 28

THEAGEOFVOLATILE BELIEF............................................................................................................ 31

1. THEQUESTFORAUNIVERSALVISION...................................................................................................... 31TheUniversalReligions .......................................................................................................................... 32TheNationalIdentity............................................................................................................................... 33IdeologicalUniversalism......................................................................................................................... 34

2. TURBULENCEWITHIN INSTITUTIONALIZEDBELIEFS ................................................................................... 35InstitutionalMarxism .............................................................................................................................. 35OrganizedChristianity ............................................................................................................................ 38PrivatizationofBelief.............................................................................................................................. 40

3. HISTRIONICSASHISTORYINTRANSITION................................................................................................. 41EscapefromReason ................................................................................................................................ 42ThePoliticalDimension .......................................................................................................................... 43HistoricalDiscontinuity .......................................................................................................................... 45

4. IDEASAND IDEALSBEYOND IDEOLOGY ..................................................................................................... 47TheQuestforEquality............................................................................................................................. 47SyncreticBelief ....................................................................................................................................... 48

COMMUNISM:THEPROBLEMOFRELEVANCE................................................................................ 52

1. THE STALINISTPARADOX......................................................................................................................... 52TheNecessityofStalinism ....................................................................................................................... 53ImperialPacification............................................................................................................................... 55

2. THEBUREAUCRATIZATIONOFBOREDOM .................................................................................................. 57TheInnovativeRelationship .................................................................................................................... 57DefensiveOrthodoxy ............................................................................................................................... 58PerspectiveonTomorrow........................................................................................................................ 61

3. THE SOVIETFUTURE ................................................................................................................................ 62InternalDilemmas................................................................................................................................... 62AlternativePaths..................................................................................................................................... 66TheProblemofVitality............................................................................................................................ 69

4. SECTARIANCOMMUNISM......................................................................................................................... 70Phases .................................................................................................................................................... 70AssimilatedCommunisms ........................................................................................................................ 71ChinaandGlobalRevolution .................................................................................................................. 73

THEAMERICANTRANSITION................................................................................................................ 77

1. THE THIRDAMERICANREVOLUTION ........................................................................................................ 78ThePaceandThrustofProgress............................................................................................................. 79TheUncertaintyofProgress.................................................................................................................... 81

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TheFutilityofPolitics............................................................................................................................. 832. THENEWLEFTREACTION ........................................................................................................................ 86

InfantileIdeology .................................................................................................................................... 86RevolutionariesinSearchofRevolution................................................................................................... 88TheHistoricFunctionoftheMilitantLeft ................................................................................................ 90

3. THECRISISOFLIBERALISM...................................................................................................................... 91THE LIBERALJANUS .................................................................................................................................... 92THE PRICEOFVICTORIOUSSKEPTICISM........................................................................................................ 92

TheEndofLiberalDemocracy? .............................................................................................................. 95

AMERICAANDTHEWORLD .................................................................................................................. 98

1. THEAMERICAN FUTURE........................................................................................................................... 98ParticipatoryPluralism........................................................................................................................... 99ChangeinCulturalFormation............................................................................................................... 101RationalHumanism............................................................................................................................... 103

2. INTERNATIONAL PROSPECTS................................................................................................................... 104TheRevolutionaryProcess .................................................................................................................... 105USA/USSR:LessIntensive,MoreExtensiveRivalry ............................................................................... 107PolicyImplications................................................................................................................................ 108

3. A COMMUNITYOFTHEDEVELOPEDNATIONS......................................................................................... 111WesternEuropeandJapan.................................................................................................................... 111StructureandFocus .............................................................................................................................. 112TheCommunistStates ........................................................................................................................... 113RisksandAdvantages............................................................................................................................ 114

REFERENCENOTES................................................................................................................................ 117

INDEX......................................................................................................................................................... 123

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IntroductionPerhapsthetimeispastforthecomprehensive"grand"vision.Insomeways,itwasanecessary

substituteforignorance,acompensationinbreadthforthelackofdepthinman'sunderstandingof hisworld.Butevenifthisisso,theresultofmoreknowledgemaybegreaterignoranceor,atleast,thefeelingofignoranceaboutwhereweareandwhereweareheading,andparticularlywhereweshouldhead,thanwastruewheninfactweknewlessbutthoughtweknewmore.

Iamnotsurethatthisneedbeso.Inanycase,Iamnotsatisfiedwiththefragmented,microscopicunderstandingoftheparts,andIfeeltheneedforsomeevenifcrudeapproximationofalargerperspective.Thisbookisanefforttoprovidesuchaperspective.Itisanattempttodefinethemeaningwithinadynamicframeworkofamajoraspectofourcontemporaryreality:theemergingglobalpoliticalprocesswhichincreasinglyblursthetraditionaldistinctionsbetweendomestic andinternationalpolitics.Inworkingtowardthatdefinition,IshallfocusparticularlyonthemeaningfortheUnitedStatesoftheemergenceofthisprocess,seekingtodrawimplicationsfromanexaminationoftheforcesthataremoldingit.

Timeandspaceshapeourperceptionofreality.Thespecificmomentandtheparticularsettingdictatethewayinternationalestimatesandprioritiesaredefined.Sometimes,whenthemomentishistorically"ripe,"thesettingandthetimemaycoalescetoprovideaspecialinsight.Aperceptiveformulaiseasiertoarticulateinamomentofspecialstress.Conditionsofwar,crisis,tensionareinthatsenseparticularlyfertile.Thesituationofcrisispermitssharpervaluejudgments,inkeepingwithman'sancientproclivityfordividinghisrealityintogoodandevil.(Marxistdialecticisclearlyinthistradition,anditinfusesmoraldichotomyintoeveryassessment.)Butshortofthatcriticalconditionwhichinitsmostextremeforminvolvesthealternativesofwarorpeaceglobalpoliticsdonotlendthemselvestopatformulationsandclearcutpredictions,eveninasettingofextensivechange.Asaresultinmosttimesitisextraordinarilydifficulttoliberateoneselffromtheconfininginfluenceoftheimmediateandtoperceivefromadetachedperspectivethebroadersweepofevents.

Anyabstractattempttoarriveatacapsuleformulaisboundtocontainameasureofdistortion.Theinfluencesthatconditionrelationsamongstatesandthebroadevolutionof internationalaffairsaretoovarious.Nonetheless,aslongasweareawarethatanysuchformulationinescapablycontainsagermoffalsehoodandhencemustbetentativetheattemptrepresentsanadvancetowardatleastapartialunderstanding.Thealternativeiscapitulationtocomplexity:theadmissionthatnosensecanbeextractedfromwhatishappening.Theconsequenttriumphofignoranceexactsitsowntributeintheformofunstableandreactivepolicies,thesubstitutionofslogansforthought, therigidadherencetogeneralizedformulasmadeinanotherageandinresponsetocircumstancesthataredifferentinessencefromourown,evenifsuperficiallysimilar.

Today,themostindustriallyadvancedcountries(inthefirstinstance,theUnitedStates)arebeginningtoemergefromtheindustrialstageoftheirdevelopment.Theyareenteringanageinwhichtechnologyandespeciallyelectronicshencemyneologism"technetronic"*areincreasinglybecomingtheprincipaldeterminantsofsocialchange,alteringthemores,thesocialstructure,thevalues,andtheglobaloutlookofsociety.Andpreciselybecausetodaychangeissorapidandsocomplex,itisperhapsmoreimportantthaneverbeforethatourconductofforeignaffairsbeguidedbyasenseofhistoryandtospeakofhistoryinthiscontextistospeaksimultaneouslyofthepastandofthefuture.

Sinceitfocusesoninternationalaffairs,thisbookisatmostonlyaverypartialresponsetotheneedforamorecomprehensiveassessment.It isnotanattempttosumupthehumancondition,tocombinephilosophyandscience,toprovideanswerstomoreperplexingquestionsconcerningourreality.Itismuchmoremodestthanthat,andyetIamuneasilyawarethatitisalreadymuchtooambitious,becauseitunavoidablytouchesonalltheseissues.

Thebookisdividedintofivemajorparts.Thefirstdealswiththeimpactofthescientifictechnologicalrevolutiononworldaffairsingeneral,discussingmorespecificallytheambiguouspositionof theprincipaldisseminatorofthatrevolutiontheUnitedStatesandanalyzingtheeffectsoftherevolutiononthesocalledThirdWorld.Thesecondpartexamineshowtheforegoingconsiderationshaveaffectedthecontent,style,andformatofman'spoliticaloutlookonhisglobalreality,withparticularreferencetothechangingroleofideology.Thethirdpartassessesthecontemporaryrelevanceofcommunismtoproblemsofmodernity,lookingfirstattheexperienceoftheSovietUnionandthenexaminingtheoverallconditionofinternationalcommunismasamovementthatoncesoughttocombineinternationalismandhumanism.ThefourthpartfocusesontheUnitedStates,asocietythatisbothasocialpioneerandaguineapigformankinditseeksto definethethrustofchangeandthehistoricalmeaningofthecurrentAmericantransition.ThefifthpartoutlinesinverybroadtermsthegeneraldirectionsthatAmericamighttakeinordertomakeaneffectiveresponsetothepreviouslydiscussedforeignanddomesticdilemmas.

Havingsaidwhatthebookdoesattempt,itmightbehelpfultothereaderalsotoindicatewhatitdoesnotattempt.Firstofall,itisnotanexercisein"futurology"itisanefforttomakesenseofpresenttrends,todevelopadynamicperspectiveonwhatishappening.Secondly,itisnotapolicybook,inthesensethatitsobjectisnottodevelopsystematicallyacoherentseriesofprescriptionsandprograms.InPartV,however,itdoestrytoindicatethegeneraldirectionstowardwhichAmericashouldand,insomerespects,mayhead.

Inthecourseofdevelopingthesetheses,Ihaveexpandedonsomeoftheideasinitiallyadvancedinmyarticle"AmericaintheTechnetronicAge,"published inEncounter,January1968,whichgaverisetoconsiderablecontroversy.IshouldaddthatnotonlyhaveItriedtoamplifyandclarifysomeoftherather

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condensedpointsmadeinthatarticle,butIhavesignificantlyrevisedsomeofmyviewsinthelightofconstructivecriticismsmadebymycolleagues.Moreover,thatarticleaddresseditselftoonlyoneaspect(discussedprimarilyinPartI)ofthemuchlargercanvasthatIhavetriedtopaintinthisvolume.

Itismyhopethatthisessaywillhelptoprovidethereaderwithabettergraspofthenatureofthepoliticalworldwelivein,oftheforcesshapingit,ofthedirectionsitispursuing.Inthatsense,itmightperhapscontributetoasharperperceptionofthenewpoliticalprocessesenvelopingourworldandmovebeyondthemoretraditionalformsofexamininginternationalpolitics.Ihope,too,thatthetentativepropositions,thegeneralizations,andthethesesadvancedherethoughnecessarilyspeculative,arbitrary,andinverymanyrespectsinescapablyinadequatemaycontributetotheincreasingdiscussionofAmerica'sroleintheworld.

Inthecourseofthework,Ihaveexpressedmyownopinionsandexposedmyprejudices.Thiseffortis,therefore,moreinthenatureofa"thinkpiece,"backedbyevidence,thanofasystematicexerciseinsocialscience methodology.*

Finally,letmeendthisintroductionwithaconfessionthatsomewhatanticipatesmyargument:anapocalypticmindedreadermayfindmythesisuncongenialbecausemyviewofAmerica'sroleintheworldisstillanoptimisticone.Isay"still"becauseIamgreatlytroubledbythedilemmaswefaceathomeandabroad,andevenmoresobythesocialandphilosophicalimplicationsofthedirectionofchangeinourtime.

Nonetheless,myoptimismisreal.AlthoughIdonotmeantominimizethegravityofAmerica'sproblemstheircatalogueislong,thedilemmasareacute,andthesignsofameaningfulresponseareatmostambivalentItrulybelievethatthissocietyhasthecapacity,the talent,thewealth,and,increasingly,thewilltosurmountthedifficultiesinherentinthiscurrenthistorictransition.

*Inthisrespect,IsharetheviewofBarringtonMoore,Jr.,that"whenwesetthedominantbodyofcurrentthinkingagainstimportantfigures

inthenineteenthcentury,thefollowingdifferencesemerge.Firstofall,thecriticalspirithasallbutdisappeared.Second,modernsociology,andperhapstoalesserextentalsomodernpoliticalscience,economics,andpsychology,areahistorical.Third,modernsocialsciencetendstobeabstractandformal.Inresearch,socialsciencetodaydisplaysconsiderabletechnicalvirtuosity. Butthisvirtuosityhasbeengainedattheexpenseofcontent.Modernsociologyhaslesstosayaboutsocietythanitdidfiftyyearsago"(PoliticalPowerandSocialTheory,Cambridge,Mass.,1958,p.123).

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BETWEENTWOAGES"Humanlifeisreducedtorealsuffering,tohell,onlywhentwoages,twoculturesandreligionsoverlap.. ..Therearetimeswhenawholegenerationiscaughtinthiswaybetweentwoages,twomodesoflife,withtheconsequencethatitlosesallpowertounderstanditselfandhasnostandard,nosecurity,nosimpleacquiescence."HERMANNHESSE, Steppenwolf

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PARTITheGlobalImpactoftheTechnetronicRevolution

Theparadoxofourtimeisthathumanityisbecomingsimultaneouslymoreunifiedandmorefragmented.Thatistheprincipalthrustofcontemporarychange.Timeandspacehavebecomesocompressedthatglobalpoliticsmanifestatendencytowardlarger,moreinterwovenformsofcooperationaswellastowardthedissolutionofestablishedinstitutionalandideologicalloyalties.Humanityisbecomingmoreintegralandintimateevenasthedifferencesintheconditionoftheseparatesocietiesarewidening.Underthesecircumstancesproximity,insteadofpromotingunity,givesrisetotensionspromptedbyanewsenseofglobalcongestion.

Anewpatternofinternationalpoliticsisemerging.Theworldisceasingtobeanarenainwhichrelativelyselfcontained,"sovereign,"andhomogeneousnationsinteract,collaborate,clash,ormakewar.Internationalpolitics,intheoriginalsenseoftheterm,werebornwhengroupsofpeoplebegantoidentifythemselvesandothersinmutuallyexclusiveterms(territory,language,symbols,beliefs),andwhenthatidentificationbecameinturnthedominantfactorinrelationsbetweenthesegroups.Theconceptofnationalinterestbasedongeographicalfactors, traditionalanimositiesorfriendships,economics,andsecurityconsiderationsimpliedadegreeofautonomyandspecificitythatwaspossibleonlysolongasnationsweresufficientlyseparatedintimeandspacetohaveboththeroomtomaneuverandthe distanceneededtomaintainseparateidentity.

Duringtheclassicaleraofinternationalpolitics,weapons,communications,economics,andideologywereallessentiallynationalinscope.Withtheinventionofmodernartillery,weaponryrequirednationalarsenalsandstandingarmiesinmorerecenttimesitcouldbeeffectivelyandrapidlydeployedbyonenationagainstthefrontiersofanother.Communications,especiallysincetheinventionofthesteamengineandtheresultingageofrailroads,reinforcednationalintegrationbymakingitpossibletomovepeopleandgoodsacrossmostnationsinaperiodoftimerarelyexceedingtwodays.Nationaleconomies,frequentlyrestingonautarkicprinciples,stimulatedboththeawarenessandthedevelopmentofcollectivevestedinterest,protectedbytariffwalls.Nationalismsopersonalizedcommunityfeelingsthatthenationbecameanextensionoftheego.*

Allfourfactorsmentionedabovearenowbecomingglobal.Weaponsoftotaldestructivepowercanbeappliedatanypointontheglobeinamatterofminutesinlesstime,infact,thanittakesforthepoliceinamajorcitytorespondtoanemergencycall.TheentireglobeisincloserreachandtouchthanamiddlesizedEuropeanpowerwastoitsowncapital fiftyyearsago.Transnationaltiesaregaininginimportance,whiletheclaimsofnationalism,thoughstillintense,arenonethelessbecomingdiluted.Thischange,naturally,hasgonefurthestinthemostadvancedcountries,butnocountryisnowimmunetoit.Theconsequenceisaneweraaneraoftheglobalpoliticalprocess.

Yetthoughtheprocessisglobal,realunityofmankindremainsremote.Thecontemporaryworldisundergoingachangeinmanyrespectssimilartothatpromptedbytheearlierappearanceoflargepopulationcenters.Thegrowthofsuchcentersweakenedintimateanddirectlinesofauthorityandcontributedtotheappearanceofmanyconflictingandcrosscuttingallegiances.Atypicalcitydwelleridentifieshimselfsimultaneouslywithavarietyofgroupsoccupational,religious,leisure,political andonlyrarelyoperatesinanenvironmentthatisexclusivelydominatedbyasinglesystemofvaluesandaunilinearpersonalcommitment.Americanmetropolitanpoliticsaretypicallymessy:specialinterestandpressuregroups,ethniccommunities,politicalorganizations,religiousinstitutions,majorindustrialorfinancialforces,andeventhecriminalunderworldinteractinapatternthatsimultaneouslyincludescontinuouslimitedwarfare andaccommodation.

Globalpolitiesareacquiringsomeanalogouscharacteristics.Nationsofdifferentsizesanddevelopmentallyindifferenthistoricalepochsinteract,creatingfriction,variablepatternsofaccommodation,andchangingalignments.While theformalrulesofthegamemaintaintheillusionthatitisplayedonlybythoseplayerscalled"states"and,whenwarbreaksout,thestatesbecometheonlysignificantplayersshortofwarthegameis trulyplayedonamuchmoreinformalbasis,withmuchmoremixedparticipation.Somestatespossessoverwhelmingpowerothers,the"ministates,"areovershadowedbymultimilliondollarinternationalcorporations,majorbanks.andfinancialinterests,transnationalorganizationsofreligiousorideologicalcharacter,andtheemerginginternationalinstitutionsthatinsomecases"represent"theinterestsoftheminorplayers(forexample,theUN)orinothercasesmaskthepowerofthemajorones(forexample,theWarsawPactorSEATO).

Themethodsforcopingwithinternationalconflictsarehence becomingsimilartothosefordealing

*Thiswasamajorchangefromtheearlierfeudalage.Atthattimeweaponswerelargelypersonal,communicationswereverylimitedandprimarilyoral,theeconomywasprimitiveandrural,andideologystresseddirect,religionbasedobeisancetoapersonallyknownchief.Theseconditionsthusreinforcedandreflectedamorefragmented"intranational"politicalprocess.

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withurbandiscord.Acharacteristicfeatureofconcentratedhumanityistheroutinizationofconflict.Directviolencebecomesincreasinglyregulatedandrestricted,andultimatelycomestobeconsideredasadeviationfromthenorm.Organizedmechanisms,intheformofuniformed,salariedpersonnel,areestablishedtoconfineviolencetosociallytolerablelimits.Acertainmeasureofcrimeisacceptedasunavoidableforthesakeoforder,therefore,organizedcrimeisgenerallypreferredtoanarchicviolence,thusindirectlyandinformallybecominganextensionoforder.

Theroutinizationofconflictonaglobalscalehasbeenthegoalofstatesmenformanydecades.Agreements,conventions,andpactshavesoughttogovernit.Noneofthesecouldproveeffectiveinasystemofrelativelydistinctiveandsovereignunitsbuttheappearanceofrapidcommunications,whichcreatednotonlyphysicalproximitybutalsoinstantawarenessofdistantevents,andtheonsetofthenuclearage,whichforthefirsttimemadetrulydestructiveglobalpoweravailabletoatleasttwostates,fundamentallyalteredthepatternofinternationalconflict.Ontheonehandthesefactorsdepresseditslevel,andontheothertheyheighteneditspotentialandincreaseditsscope.

Urbanunderworldwarsdonotgiverisetomuchmoralrevulsionnoraretheyseenasmajorthreatstosocialpeace.Onlyoutbreaksofviolencedirectedatthatpeace,as representedbyhumanlifeandmajorvestedinterestsbanks,shops,orprivateproperty,forexampleareresolutelycombated.Similarly,inthemoreadvancedportionsoftheworldthereisatendencyamongtheestablishmentandthemiddleclassofthe"globalcity"tobeindifferenttoThirdWorldconflictsandtoviewthemasnecessaryattributesofalowlevelofdevelopmentprovided,ofcourse,thatsuchconflictsdonotfeedbackintotherelationsamongthemorepowerfulstates.WarsintheThirdWorld thusseemtolerableaslongastheirinternationalscaleiscontainedatalevelthatdoesnotseemtothreatenmajorinterests.*

Inourtimetheroutinizationofconflicthasalsomeantashiftfromsustainedwarfaretosporadicoutbreaksofviolence.Sustained,prolongedwarfarewasmadepossiblebytheindustrialage.Inearliertimesarmiesconfrontedeachother,foughtpitched,headonbattles,and,likegladiatorsofold,scoreddecisivevictoriesorwentdownindefeat.Theindustrialagepermittedsocietiestomobilizetheirmanpowerandresourcesforprolongedbutindecisivestrugglesresemblingclassicalwrestlingandrequiringbothskillandendurance.Nuclearweaponsneverusedinconflictbetweennuclearpowersposethepossibilityofsuchmutualannihilationthattheytendtofreezetheirpossessorsintopassiverestraint,withsporadicoutbreaksofViolenceoccurringontheperipheriesoftheconfrontation.Though,inthepast,violencetendedtoresultintheuseofmaximumavailablepower,todaythosestatespossessingmaximumpowerstrivetoemployaminimumintheassertionoftheirinterests.

Sincetheappearanceofnuclearweapons,relationsbetweenthesuperpowershavebeengovernedbyarudimentarycodeofrestraintforgedbytrialanderrorinthecourseofconfrontationsrangingfromKoreathroughBerlintoCuba.ItislikelythatintheabsenceoftheseweaponswarwouldlongsincehavebrokenoutbetweentheUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnion.Theirdestructivepowerhasthus hadabasiceffectonthedegreetowhichforceisappliedintherelationsamongstates,compellinganunprecedenteddegreeofprudenceinthe behaviourofthemostpowerfulstates.Withinthefragileframeworkinwhichthecontemporarytransformationofourrealityoccurs,nuclearweaponshavethuscreatedanentirelynovelsystemofdeterrencefromtherelianceonoverwhelmingpower.

Inthecaseofurbanpolitics,theweaknessofacceptedandrespectedimmediateauthorityiscompensatedforbythesenseofhigherallegiancetothenation,asrepresentedbytheinstitutionalexpressionofstatepower.Theglobalcitylacksthathigherdimensionandmuchofthecontemporarysearchfororderisanattempttocreateit,ortofindsomeequilibriumshortof it.Otherwise,however,globalpoliticsaresimilarlycharacterizedbytheconfusingpatternofinvolvement,congestion,andinteraction,whichcumulatively,thoughgradually,underminestheexclusivenessandtheprimacyofthosehithertorelativelywatertightcompartments,thenationstates.Intheprocess,internationalpoliticsgraduallybecomeamuchmoreintimateandoverlappingprocess.Erasarehistoricalabstractions.Theyarealsoanintellectualconvenience:theyaremeantto bemilestonesonaroadthatoveraperiodoftimechangesimperceptiblyandyetquiteprofoundly.Itisamatterofarbitraryjudgmentwhenoneeraendsandanewonebeginsneithertheendnorthebeginningcanbeclearlyandsharplydefined.Ontheformalplane,politicsasaglobalprocessoperatemuchastheydidinthepast,buttheinnerrealityofthatprocessisincreasinglyshapedbyforceswhoseinfluenceorscopetranscendnationallines.

*duringthepost1945years,thedevelopmentofnuclearweapons,theformationofpowerblocsandmultilateralalliancesystems,andtheincreasingfinancialcostofmodernwarfare,haveallbeenfactorsinhibitingtheoutbreakofformalwarfarebetweentheadvanced,industrialnations.Themajorityof'conflicts'duringtheseyearshavetakenplaceinAfrica,theMiddleEastandAsia,thesocalledThirdWorld.Andalargenumberofthemhavefollowedonorbeenassociatedwiththebreakupofcolonialempires,whetherOttoman,British,FrenchorJapanese,andthesubsequentemergenceofnewstateswhichareoftensmall,poorandinsecure"(DavidWood,"ConflictintheTwentiethCentury,"AdelphiPapers,June1968,p.19).Theabovestudycontainsalistofeightyconflictsthathaveoccurredintheyears19451967.AllbuteightoftheseconflictsinvolvedThirdWorldparticipantsonbothsides.Theanalogywithmetropolitanpoliticsis alsomadebyTheodoreH.VonLaueinhisthoughtfulbook TheGlobalCity(NewYork,1969).VonLauejsparticularlystimulatinginhisanalysisoftheimpactoftheWestern"metropolitan"systemonworldpoliticsduringthelastcentury.

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1.TheOnsetoftheTechnetronicAgeTheimpactofscienceandtechnology onmanandhissociety,especiallyinthemoreadvanced

countriesoftheworld,isbecomingthemajorsourceofcontemporarychange.Recentyearshaveseenaproliferationofexcitingandchallengingliteratureonthefuture.IntheUnitedStates,inWesternEurope,and,toalesserdegree,inJapanandintheSovietUnion,anumberofsystematic,scholarlyeffortshavebeenmadetoproject,predict,andgraspwhatthefutureholdsforus.

Thetransformationthatisnowtakingplace,especiallyinAmerica, isalreadycreatingasocietyincreasinglyunlikeitsindustrialpredecessor.1Thepostindustrialsocietyisbecominga"technetronic"society:*

asocietythatisshapedculturally,psychologically,socially,andeconomicallybytheimpactoftechnologyandelectronicsparticularlyintheareaofcomputersandcommunications.Theindustrialprocessisnolongertheprincipaldeterminantofsocialchange,alteringthemores,thesocialstructure,andthevaluesofsociety.Intheindustrialsocietytechnicalknowledgewasappliedprimarilytoonespecificend:theaccelerationandimprovementofproduction techniques.Socialconsequenceswerealaterbyproductofthisparamountconcern.Inthe technetronicsocietyscientificandtechnicalknowledge,inadditiontoenhancingproductioncapabilities,quicklyspillsovertoaffectalmostallaspectsoflifedirectly.Accordingly,boththegrowingcapacityfortheinstantcalculationofthemostcomplexinteractionsandtheincreasingavailabilityofbiochemicalmeansofhumancontrolaugmentthepotentialscopeofconsciouslychosendirection,andtherebyalsothepressurestodirect,tochoose,andtochange.

Relianceonthesenewtechniquesofcalculationandcommunicationenhancesthesocialimportanceofhumanintelligenceandtheimmediaterelevanceoflearning.Theneedtointegratesocialchangeisheightenedbytheincreasedabilitytodecipherthepatternsofchangethisinturnincreasesthesignificanceofbasicassumptionsconcerningthenatureofmanandthedesirabilityofoneoranotherformofsocialorganization.Sciencetherebyintensifiesratherthandiminishestherelevanceofvalues,butit demandsthattheybecastintermsthatgobeyondthemorecrudeideologiesoftheindustrialage.(ThisthemeisdevelopedfurtherinPartII.)

NewSocialPatternsForNorbertWiener,"thelocusofanearlierindustrialrevolutionbeforethemainindustrialrevolution"istobefoundinthefifteenthcenturyresearchpertainingtonavigation(thenauticalcompass),aswellasinthedevelopmentofgunpowderandprinting.2Todaythefunctionalequivalentofnavigationisthethrustintospace,whichrequiresarapidcomputingcapacitybeyondthemeansofthehumanbraintheequivalentofgunpowderismodernnuclearphysics,andthatofprintingistelevisionandlongrangeinstantcommunications.Theconsequenceofthisnewtechnetronicrevolutionistheprogressiveemergenceofasocietythatincreasinglydiffersfromtheindustrialone inavarietyofeconomic,political,andsocialaspects.Thefollowingexamplesmaybebrieflycitedtosummarizesomeofthecontrasts:(1)Inanindustrialsocietythemodeofproductionshiftsfromagriculturetoindustry,withtheuseofhumanandanimalmusclesupplantedbymachineoperation.Inthetechnetronicsocietyindustrialemploymentyieldstoservices,withautomationandcyberneticsreplacingtheoperationofmachinesbyindividuals.(2)Problemsofemploymentandunemploymenttosaynothingofthepriorurbanizationofthepostrurallaborforcedominatetherelationshipbetweenemployers,labor,andthemarketintheindustrialsociety,andtheassuranceofminimumwelfaretothenewindustrialmassesisasourceofmajorconcern.Intheemergingnewsocietyquestionsrelatingtotheobsolescenceofskills,security,vacations,leisure,andprofitsharingdominatetherelationship,andthepsychicwellbeingofmillionsofrelativelysecurebutpotentiallyaimlesslowermiddleclassbluecollarworkersbecomesagrowingproblem.(3)Breakingdowntraditionalbarrierstoeducation,andthuscreatingthebasicpointofdepartureforsocialadvancement,isamajorgoalofsocialreformersintheindustrialsociety.Education,availableforlimitedandspecificperiodsoftime,isinitiallyconcernedwithovercomingilliteracyandsubsequentlywithtechnicaltraining,basedlargelyonwritten,sequentialreasoning.Inthetechnetronicsocietynotonlyiseducationuniversalbutadvancedtrainingisavailabletoalmostallwhohavethebasictalents,andthereisfargreateremphasisonqualityselection.Theessentialproblemistodiscoverthemosteffectivetechniquesfortherationalexploitationofsocialtalent.Thelatestcommunicationandcalculatingtechniquesareemployedinthistask.Theeducationalprocessbecomesalengthieroneandisincreasinglyreliantonaudiovisualaids.Inaddition,theflowofnewknowledgenecessitatesmoreandmorefrequentrefresherstudies.(4) Intheindustrialsocietysocialleadershipshiftsfromthetraditionalruralaristocratictoanurbanplutocraticelite.Newlyacquiredwealthisitsfoundation,andintensecompetitiontheoutletaswellasthestimulusforitsenergy.Inthetechnetronicsocietyplutocraticpreeminenceischallengedbythepoliticalleadership,whichisitselfincreasinglypermeatedbyindividuals

*Theterm"postindustrial"isusedbyDanielBell,whohasdonemuchofthepioneeringthinkingonthesubject.However,Iprefertouse

theneologism"technetronic,"becauseitconveysmoredirectlythecharacteroftheprincipalimpulsesforchangeinourtime.Similarly,theterm"industrial"describedwhatotherwisecouldhavebeencalledthe"postagricultural"age.

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possessingspecialskillsandintellectualtalents.Knowledgebecomesatoolofpowerandtheeffectivemobilizationoftalentanimportantwaytoacquirepower.(5)Theuniversityinanindustrialsocietyincontrasttothesituationinmedievaltimesisanaloofivorytower,therepositoryofirrelevant,evenifrespected,wisdom,andforabrieftimethefountainheadforbuddingmembersoftheestablishedsocialelite.Inthetechnetronicsocietytheuniversitybecomesanintensely involved"thinktank,"thesourceofmuchsustainedpoliticalplanningandsocialinnovation.(6)Theturmoilinherentintheshiftfromarigidlytraditionalruralsocietytoanurbanoneengendersaninclinationtoseektotalanswerstosocialdilemmas,thuscausingideologiestothriveintheindustrializingsociety.(TheAmericanexceptiontothisrulewasduetotheabsenceofafeudaltradition,apointwelldevelopedbyLouisHartz.)Intheindustrialageliteracymakesforstaticinterrelatedconceptualthinking,congenialtoideologicalsystems.Inthetechnetronicsocietyaudiovisualcommunicationspromptmorechangeable,disparateviewsofreality,notcompressibleintoformalsystems,evenastherequirementsofscienceandthenewcomputativetechniquesplaceapremiumonmathematicallogicandsystematicreasoning.Theresultingtensionisfeltmostacutelybyscientists,withtheconsequencethatsomeseektoconfinereasontosciencewhileexpressingtheiremotionsthroughpolitics.Moreover,theincreasingabilitytoreducesocialconflictstoquantifiableandmeasurabledimensionsreinforcesthetrendtowardamorepragmaticapproachtosocialproblems,whileitsimultaneouslystimulatesnewconcernswithpreserving"humane"values.(7)Intheindustrialsociety,asthehithertopassivemassesbecomeactivethereareintensepoliticalconflictsoversuchmattersasdisenfranchisementandtherighttovote.Theissueofpoliticalparticipationisacrucialone.Inthetechnetronicagethequestionisincreasinglyoneofensuringrealparticipationindecisionsthatseemtoocomplexandtoofarremovedfromtheaveragecitizen.Politicalalienationbecomesaproblem.Similarly,theissueofpoliticaleqaalityofthesexesgiveswaytoastruggleforthesexualequalityofwomen.Intheindustrialsocietywoman__theoperatorofmachinesceasestobephysicallyinferiorto themale,aconsiderationofsomeimportanceinrurallife,andbeginstodemandherpoliticalrights.Intheemergingtechnetronicsocietyautomationthreatensbothmalesandfemales,intellectualtalentiscomputable,the"pill"encouragessexualequality,andwomenbegintoclaimcompleteequality.(8)Thenewlyenfranchisedmassesareorganizedintheindustrialsocietybytradeunionsandpoliticalpartiesandunifiedbyrelativelysimpleandsomewhatideologicalprograms.Moreover,politicalattitudesareinfluencedbyappealstonationalistsentiments,communicatedthroughthemassiveincreaseofnewspapersemploying,naturally,thereaders'nationallanguage.Inthetechnetronicsocietythetrendseemstobetowardaggregatingtheindividualsupportofmillionsofunorganizedcitizens,whoareeasilywithinthereachofmagneticandattractivepersonalities,andeffectivelyexploitingthelatestcommunicationtechniquestomanipulateemotionsandcontrolreason.Relianceontelevisionandhencethetendencytoreplacelanguagewithimagery,whichisinternationalratherthannational,andtoincludewarcoverageorscenesofhungerinplacesasdistantas,forexample,Indiacreatesasomewhatmorecosmopolitan,thoughhighlyimpressionistic, involvementinglobalaffairs.(9)Economicpowerintheearlyphaseofindustrializationtendstobepersonalized,byeithergreatentrepreneurslikeHenryFordorbureaucraticindustrialofficialslikeKaganovich,orMine(inStalinistPoland).Thetendencytowarddepersonalizationeconomicpowerisstimulatedinthenextstagebytheappearanceofahighlycomplexinterdependencebetweengovernmentalinstitutions(includingthemilitary),scientificestablishments,andindustrialorganizations.Aseconomicpowerbecomesinseparablylinkedwithpoliticalpower,itbecomesmoreinvisibleandthesenseofindividualfutilityincfeases.(10)Inanindustrialsocietytheacquisitionofgoodsandtheaccumulationofpersonalwealthbecomeformsofsocialattainmentforanunprecedentedlylargenumberofpeople.Inthetechnetronicsocietytheadaptationofsciencetohumaneendsandagrowingconcernwiththequalityoflifebecomebothpossibleandincreasinglyamoralimperativeforalargenumberofcitizens,especiallytheyoung.

Eventually,thesechangesandmanyothers,includingsomethatmoredirectlyaffectthepersonalityandqualityofthehumanbeinghimself,willmakethetechnetronicsocietyasdifferentfromtheindustrialastheindustrialwasfromtheagrarian.*Andjustastheshiftfromanagrarianeconomyandfeudalpoliticstowardanindustrialsocietyandpoliticalsystemsbasedontheindividual'semotionalidentificationwiththenationstategaverisetocontemporaryinternational politics,sotheappearanceofthetechnetronicsocietyreflectstheonsetofanewrelationshipbetweenmanandhisexpandedglobalreality.

SocialExplosion/ImplosionThisnewrelationshipisatenseone:manhasstilltodefineitconceptuallyandtherebyrenderit

comprehensibletohimself.Ourexpandedglobalrealityissimultaneouslyfragmentingandthrustingitselfinuponus.Theresultofthecoincidentexplosionandimplosionisnotonlyinsecurityandtensionbutalso anentirelynovelperceptionofwhatmanystillcallinternationalaffairs.

*Belldefinesthe"fivedimensionsofthepostindustrialsociety"asinvolvingthefollowing:(l)Thecreationofaserviceeconomy.(2)The

preeminenceoftheprofessionalandtechnicalclass.(3)Thecentralityoftheoreticalknowledgeasthesourceofinnovationandpolicyformulationinthesociety.(4)Thepossibilityofselfsustainingtechnologicalgrowth.(5)Thecreationofanew"intellectualtechnology."(DanielBell,"TheMeasurementofKnowledgeandTechnology,"inIndicatorsofSocialChange,EleanorSheldonandWilbertMoore,eds.,NewYork,1968,pp.15253.)

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Lifeseemstolackcohesionasenvironmentrapidlyaltersandhumanbeingsbecomeincreasinglymanipulableandmalleable.Everythingseemsmoretransitoryandtemporary:externalreality morefluidthansolid,thehumanbeingmoresyntheticthanauthentic.Evenoursensesperceiveanentirelynovel"reality"oneofourownmakingbutnevertheless,intermsof oursensations,quite"real."*Moreimportant,thereisalreadywidespreadconcernaboutthepossibilityofbiologicalandchemicaltamperingwithwhathasuntilnowbeenconsideredtheimmutableessenceofman.Humanconduct,someargue,canbepredeterminedandsubjectedtodeliberatecontrol.Manisincreasinglyacquiringthecapacitytodetermine thesexofhischildren,toaffectthroughdrugstheextentoftheirintelligence,andtomodifyandcontroltheirpersonalities.Speakingofafutureatmostonlydecadesaway,anexperimenterinintelligencecontrolasserted,"Iforeseethetimewhenwe shallhavethemeansandtherefore,inevitably,thetemptationtomanipulatethe behaviourandintellectualfunctioningofallthepeoplethroughenvironmentalandbiochemicalmanipulationofthebrain."3

Thusitisanopenquestionwhethertechnologyandsciencewillinfactincreasetheoptionsopentotheindividual.Undertheheadline"StudyTermsTechnologyaBoontoIndividualism,"4TheNewYorkTimesreportedthepreliminaryconclusionsofaHarvardprojectonthesocialsignificanceofscience.Itsparticipantswerequotedasconcludingthat"mostAmericanshaveagreaterrangeofpersonalchoice,widerexperienceandamorehighlydevelopedsenseofselfworththaneverbefore."Thismaybeso,butajudgmentofthissortrestsessentiallyonanintuitive andcomparativeinsightintothepresentandpaststatesofmindofAmericans.Inthisconnectionawordofwarningfromanacuteobserverishighlyrelevant:"Itbehavesustoexaminecarefullythedegreeofvalidity,asmeasuredbyactual behaviour,ofthestatementthatabenefitoftechnologywillbetoincreasethenumberofoptionsandalternativestheindividualcanchoose from.Inprinciple,itcouldinfact,theindividualmayuseanynumberofpsychologicaldevicestoavoidthediscomfortofinformationoverload,andtherebykeeptherangeofalternativestowhichherespondsmuchnarrowerthanthatwhichtechnologyinprinciplemakesavailabletohim."5Inotherwords,therealquestionsarehowtheindividualwillexploittheoptions,towhatextenthewillbeintellectuallyandpsychologicallypreparedtoexploitthem,andinwhatwaysocietyasawholewillcreateafavorablesettingfortakingadvantageoftheseoptions.Theiravailabilityisnotofitselfproofofagreatersenseoffreedomorselfworth.

Insteadofacceptinghimselfasaspontaneousgiven,maninthemostadvancedsocietiesmaybecomemoreconcernedwithconsciousselfanalysisaccordingtoexternal,explicitcriteria:WhatismyIQ?Whataremyaptitudes,personalitytraits,capabilities,attractions,andnegativefeatures?The"internalman"spontaneouslyacceptinghisownspontaneitywillmoreandmorebechallengedbythe"externalman"consciouslyseekinghisselfconsciousimageandthetransitionfromonetotheothermaynotbeeasy.Itwillalsogiverisetodifficultproblemsindeterminingthelegitimatescopeofsocialcontrol.The possibilityofextensivechemicalmindcontrol,thedangeroflossofindividualityinherentinextensivetransplantation,thefeasibilityofmanipulatingthegeneticstructurewillcallforthesocialdefinitionofcommoncriteriaofuseandrestraint.Asthepreviouslycited,writerputit,"...whilethechemicalaffectstheindividual,thepersonissignificanttohimselfandtosocietyinhissocial context atwork,athome,atplay.Theconsequencesaresocialconsequences.Indecidinghowtodealwithsuchalterersoftheegoandofexperience(andconsequentlyalterersofthepersonalityaftertheexperience),andindecidinghowtodealwiththe'changed'humanbeings,wewillhavetofacenewquestionssuchas'WhoamI?''WhenamIwho?"'Whoare they inrelationtome?'"6

Moreover,manwillincreasinglybelivinginmanmadeandrapidlymanalteredenvironments.Bytheendofthiscenturyapproximatelytwothirdsofthepeopleintheadvancedcountriesillliveincities."Urbangrowthhassofarbeenprimarilythebyproductofaccidentaleconomicconvenience,ofthemagneticattractionofpopulationcenters,andoftheflightofmanyfromruralpovertyandexploitation.Ithasnotbeendeliberatelydesignedtoimprovethequalityoflife.Theimpactof"accidental"citiesisalreadycontributingtothedepersonalizationofindividuallifeasthekinshipstructurecontractsandenduringrelationsoffriendshipbecomemoredifficulttomaintain.JulianHuxleywasperhapsguiltyofonlyslightexaggerationwhenhewarnedthat"overcrowdinginanimalsleadstodistortedneuroticanddownrightpathological behaviour.Wecanbesurethatthesameistrueinprincipleofpeople.Citylifetodayisdefinitelyleadingtomassmentaldisease,togrowingvandalismandpossibleeruptionsofmassviolence." 7

Theproblemofidentityislikelytobecomplicatedbyagenerationgap,intensifiedbythedissolutionoftraditionaltiesandvaluesderivedfromextendedfamilyandenduringcommunityrelationships.Thedialogue

*Belldefinesthe"fivedimensionsofthepostindustrialsociety"asinvolvingthefollowing:(l)Thecreationofaserviceeconomy.(2)The

preeminenceoftheprofessionalandtechnicalclass.(3)Thecentralityoftheoreticalknowledgeasthesourceofinnovationandpolicyformulationinthesociety.(4)Thepossibilityofselfsustainingtechnologicalgrowth.(5)Thecreationofanew"intellectualtechnology."(DanielBell,"TheMeasurementofKnowledgeandTechnology,"inIndicatorsofSocialChange,EleanorSheldonandWilbertMoore,eds.,NewYork,1968,pp.15253.)In1900therewere10citieswithpopulationsofonemillionormorein1955thenumberhadgrownto61in1965therewereover100

citieswithpopulationsofonemillionormore.TodayinAustraliaandOceaniathreequartersofthepeopleliveincitiesin AmericaandEurope(theUSSRincluded)onehalfdoinAfricaandAsiaonefifthliveincities./G.N.Carstairs,in"WhyIsManAggressive?"(ImpactofScienceonSowty,AprilJune1968,p.90),arguesthatpopulationgrowth,

crowding,andsocialoppressionallcontributetoirrationalandintensifiedaggression,experimentsonratsseemtobearthisoutobservationofhumanbehaviorinlargecitiesseemstowarrantasimilarconclusion.ForacriducceuragainstthiscongestedconditionfromaFrenchsociologist,seeJacquesEllul,The1technologicalSociety,NewYork,1965,p.321.

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betweenthegenerationsisbecomingadialogueofthedeaf.Itnolongeroperateswithintheconservativeliberalornationalistinternationalistframework.Thebreakdownincommunicationbetweenthegenerationssovividlyevidentduringthestudentrevoltsof1968wasrootedintheirrelevanceoftheoldsymbols'tomanyyoungerpeople.Debate impliestheacceptanceofacommonframeofreferenceandlanguagesincethesewerelacking,debatebecameincreasinglyimpossible!

Thoughcurrentlytheclashisovervalueswithmanyoftheyoungrejectingthoseoftheirelders,whointurncontendthat theyounghaveevadedtheresponsibilityofarticulatingtheirs inthefuturetheclashbetweengenerationswillbealsooverexpertise.Withinafewyearstherebelsinthemoreadvancedcountrieswhotodayhavethemostvisibilitywillbejoinedbya newgenerationmakingitsclaimtopoweringovernmentandbusiness:agenerationtrainedtoreasonlogicallyasaccustomedtoexploitingelectronicaidstohumanreasoningaswehavebeentousingmachinestoincreaseourownmobilityexpressingitself inalanguagethatfunctionallyrelatestotheseaidsacceptingasroutinemanagerialprocessescurrentinnovationssuchasplanningprogrammingbudgetingsystems(PPBS)andtheappearanceinhighbusinessechelonsof"topcomputerexecutives."8Asthe olderelitedefendswhatitconsidersnotonlyitsownvestedinterestsbutmorebasicallyitsownwayoflife,theresultingclashcouldgenerateevenmoreintenseconceptualissues.

GlobalAbsorptionButwhileourimmediaterealityisbeingfragmented,globalrealityincreasinglyabsorbstheindividual,

involveshim,andevenoccasionallyoverwhelmshim.Communicationsare,theobvious,alreadymuchdiscussed,immediatecause.Thechangeswroughtbycommunicationsandcomputersmakeforanextraordinarily interwovensocietywhosemembersareincontinuousandcloseaudiovisualcontactconstantlyinteracting,instantlysharingthemostintensesocialexperiences,andpromptedtoincreasedpersonalinvolvementineventhemostdistantproblems.Thenewgenerationnolongerdefinestheworldexclusivelyonthebasisofreading,eitherofideologicallystructuredanalysesorofextensivedescriptionsitalsoexperiencesandsensesitvicariouslythroughaudiovisualcommunications.Thisformofcommunicating realityisgrowingmorerapidlyespeciallyintheadvancedcountries* thanthetraditionalwrittenmedium,anditprovidestheprincipalsourceofnewsforthemasses(seeTables13)."By1985distancewillbenoexcusefordelayedinformationfromany partoftheworldtothepowerfulurbannervecentersthatwillmarkthemajorconcentrationsofthepeopleonearth."9Globaltelephonedialingthatinthemoreadvancedstateswillincludeinstantvisualcontactandaglobaltelevisionsatellitesystemthatwillenablesomestatesto"invade"privatehomesinothercountries*willcreateunprecedentedglobalintimacy.

Thenewreality,however,willnotbethatofa"globalvillage."McLuhan'sstrikinganalogyoverlooksthepersonalstability,interpersonalintimacy,implicitlysharedvalues,andtraditionsthatwereimportantingredientsoftheprimitivevillage.Amoreappropriateanalogyisthatofthe"globalcity"anervous,agitated,tense,andfragmentedwebofinterdependentrelations.Thatinterdependence,however,isbettercharacterizedbyinteractionthanbyintimacy.Instantcommunicationsarealreadycreatingsomethingakintoaglobalnervoussystem.Occasionalmalfunctionsofthisnervoussystembecauseofblackoutsorbreakdownswillbeallthemoreunsettling,preciselybecausethemutualconfidenceandreciprocallyreinforcingstabilitythatarecharacteristicofvillageintimacywillbeabsentfromtheprocessofthat"nervous"interaction.

Man'sintensifiedinvolvementinglobal affairsisreflectedin,anddoubtlessshapedby,thechangingcharacterofwhathasuntilnowbeenconsideredlocalnews.Televisionhasjoinednewspapersinexpandingtheimmediatehorizonsoftheviewerorreadertothepointwhere"local"increasinglymeans"national,"andglobalaffairscompeteforattentiononanunprecedentedscale.Physicalandmoralimmunityto"foreign"eventscannotbe

TABLEI. RADIOAND TELEVISIONRECEIVERSPER1000 POPULATION ESTIMATEDCIRCULATIONOFDAILYNEWSPAPERSPER1000POPULATIONSourceofTables1and2: UNESCOStatisticalYearbook, 1967,Tables5.18.29.2.*Statisticsfrom UNStatisticalYearbook, 1968.

1960 1966Radios TV Newspapers Radios TV Newspapers

UnitedStates 941 310 326 1,334 376 312Canada 452 219 222 602 286 212*Sweden 367 156 (1962)490 377 277 501UnitedKingdom 289 211 514 300 254 488WestGermany 287 83 307 459 213 332Czechoslovakia 259 58 236 269 167 288France 241 41 (1962)252 321 151 248*

*Forexample,HermannMeyn,inhisMassenmedieninderBundesrepublikDeutschland(Berlin,1966),providesdatashowing

cumulativelythatanaverageWestGermanovertheageoffifteenreadeachdayforfifteenminutes,listenedtotheradioforoneandonehalfhours,andwatchedtelevisiontoronehourandtenminutes.itisestimatedthatwithinadecadetelevisionsatelliteswillcarrysufficientpowertotransmitprogramsdirectlytoreceivers,withouttheintermediaryofreceivingtransmittingstations.

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USSR 205 22 172 329 81 274Argentina 167 21 155 308 82 1289

Japan 133 73 396 251 192 465Brazil 70 18 54 (1964)95 30 33Algeria 54 5 28 (1964)129 (1965)13 (1965)15India 5 11 13 13

TABLE2. ABSOLUTEINCREASEPER1000 POPULATIONINRADIO, TELEVISION,ANDNEWSPAPERCIRCULATION, 19601966

Radios TV NewspapersUnitedStates +393 +66 14Canada +150 +67 10Sweden +10 +121 +11UnitedKingdom +11 +43 26WestGermany +172 +130 +25Czechoslovakia +10 +109 +52France +80 +110 4USSR +124 +59 +102Argentina +141 +61 27Japan +118 +119 +69Brazil +25 +12 21Algeria +75 +8 13India +8 +2

TABLE3. APPROXIMATEUSEOFMEDIA FOR EACH OFTHEFOURAUDIENCEGROUPSPercentofU.S.population Mass Periphera

lCollege Elites

that: Majority Mass Graduates (less(5060%) (20

40%)(1025%) than1%)

Readanynonfictionbooksinthelastyear 5 15 30 50Readone issueamonthofHarper's,NationalReview,etc. 1/2 2 10 25ReadoneissueamonthofTime,Newsweek,orU.S.News 5 10 45 70ReadoneissueamonthofLook,Life,orPost 25 50 65 30Readadailynewspaper 70 80 90 95Readthe NewYorkTimes % X 5 50Readnationalorinternationalnewsfirstinpaper 10 20 30 50Wantmoreforeignnewsinpaper 10 20 30 50Listentoradiodaily 60 70 85 ?Hearradionewsdaily 50 60 65 ?Usetelevisiondaily 80 75 65 ?WatchTVNews 45 45 45 ?FavorTVasnewsmedium 60 35 20 ?FavornewsasTVshow 5 15 30 50

Source: TelevisionQuarterly, Spring1968,p.47.ThesefiguresareforthemostpartderivedfromdatainJohnRobinson,PublicInformationaboutWorldAffairs, AnnArbor,Mich.,1967.

veryeffectivelymaintainedundercircumstancesinwhichtherearebothagrowingintellectualawarenessofglobalinterdependenceandtheelectronicintrusionofglobaleventsintothehome.

Thisconditionalsomakesforanovelperceptionofforeignaffairs.Evenintherecentpastonelearnedaboutinternationalpoliticsthroughthestudyofhistoryandgeography,aswellasbyreadingnewspapers.Thiscontributedtoahighlystructured,evenrigid,approach,inwhichitwasconvenienttocategorizeeventsor

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nationsinsomewhatideologicalterms.Today,however,foreignaffairsintrudeuponachildoradolescentintheadvancedcountriesintheformofdisparate,sporadic,isolatedbutinvolvingevents:catastrophesandactsofviolencebothabroadandathomebecomeintermeshed,andthoughtheymayeliciteitherpositiveornegativereactions,thesearenolongerintheneatlycompartmentalizedcategoriesof"We"and"they."Televisioninparticularcontributestoa"blurred,"muchmoreimpressionistic andalsoinvolvedattitudetowardworldaffairs.10Anyonewhoteachesinternationalpoliticssensesagreatchangeintheattitudeoftheyoungalongtheselines.

Suchdirectglobalintrusionandinteraction,however,doesnotmakeforbetter"understanding"ofourcontemporaryaffairs.Onthecontrary,itcanbearguedthatinsomerespects"understanding"inthesenseofpossessingthesubjectiveconfidencethatonecanevaluateeventsonthebasisofsomeorganizedprinciple istodaymuchmoredifficultformostpeopletoattain.Instantbutvicariousparticipationineventsevokesuncertainty,especiallyasitbecomesmoreandmoreapparentthatestablishedanalyticalcategoriesnolongeradequatelyencompassthenewcircumstances.*

Thescienceexplosionthemostrapidlyexpandingaspectofourentirereality,growingmorerapidlythanpopulation,industry,andcitiesintensifies,ratherthanreduces,thesefeelingsofinsecurity.Itissimplyimpossiblefortheaveragecitizenandevenformenofintellecttoassimilateand.meaningfullyorganizetheflowofknowledgeforthemselves.Ineveryscientificfieldcomplaintsaremountingthatthetorrentialoutpouringofpublishedreports,scientificpapers,andscholarlyarticlesandtheproliferationofprofessionaljournalsmakeitimpossibleforindividualstoavoidbecomingeithernarrowgaugedspecialistsorsuperficialgeneralists.Thesharingofnewcommonperspectivesthusbecomesmoredifficultasknowledgeexpandsinaddition,traditionalperspectivessuchasthoseprovidedbyprimitivemythsor,morerecently,bycertainhistoricallyconditionedideologiescannolongerbesustained.

Thethreatofintellectualfragmentation,posedbythegapbetweenthepaceintheexpansionofknowledgeandtherateofitsassimilationraisesaperplexingquestionconcerningtheprospectsformankind'sintellectualunity.Ithasgenerallybeenassumedthatthemodernworld,shapedincreasinglybytheindustrialandurbanrevolutions,willbecomemorehomogeneousinitsoutlook.Thismaybeso,butitcouldbethehomogeneityofinsecurity,ofuncertainty,andofintellectualanarchy.Theresult,therefore,wouldnotnecessarilybeamorestableenvironment.

2.TheAmbivalentDisseminatorTheUnitedStatesistheprincipalglobaldisseminatorofthetechnetronicrevolution.ItisAmericansocietythatiscurrentlyhavingthegreatestimpactonallothersocieties,promptingafarreachingcumulativetransformationintheiroutlookandmores.Atvariousstagesinhistorydifferentsocietieshaveservedasacatalystforchangebystimulatingimitationandadaptationinothers.WhatintheremotepastAthensandRomeweretotheMediterraneanworld,orChinatomuchofAsia,FrancehasmorerecentlybeentoEurope.Frenchletters,arts,andpoliticalideasexercisedamagneticattraction,andtheFrenchRevolutionwasperhapsthesinglemostpowerfulstimulanttotheriseofpopulistnationalismduringthenineteenthcentury.

Inspite ofitsdomestictensionsindeed,insomerespectsbecauseofthem(seePartIV)theUnitedStatesistheinnovativeandcreativesocietyoftoday.Itisalsoamajordisruptiveinfluenceontheworldscene.Infactcommunism,whichmanyAmericansseeas theprincipalcauseofunrest,primarilycapitalizesonfrustrationsandaspirations,whosemajorsourceistheAmericanimpactontherestoftheworld.TheUnitedStatesisthefocusofglobalattention,emulation,envy,admiration,andanimosity.Noothersocietyevokesfeelingsofsuchintensitynoothersociety'sinternalaffairsincludingAmerica'sracialandurbanviolencearescrutinizedwithsuchattentionnoothersociety'spoliticsarefollowedwithsuchavidinterestsomuchsothattomany foreignnationalsUnitedStatesdomesticpoliticshavebecomeanessentialextensionoftheirownnoothersocietysomassivelydisseminatesitsownwayoflifeanditsvaluesbymeansofmovies,television,multimillioncopyforeigneditionsofitsnationalmagazines,orsimplybyitsproductsnoothersocietyistheobjectofsuchcontradictoryassessments.

TheAmericanImpactInitially,theimpactofAmericaontheworldwaslargelyidealistic:Americawasassociatedwith

freedom.Latertheinfluence becamemorematerialistic:Americawasseenasthelandofopportunity,crasslydefinedintermsofdollars.Todaysimilarmaterialadvantagescanbesoughtelsewhereatlowerpersonalrisk,

*Toprovideonesimpleexample,forabouttwentyyearsanticommunismprovidedthegrandorganizationalprincipleformanyAmericans.

HowthenfitintothatsettingeventssuchastheconfrontationbetweenMoscowandPeking,and,onceonehadbecomeaccustomedtothinkofMoscowasmore"liberal,"betweenMoscowandPrague?Itisestimated,forexample,thatNASAemployssomefifteenthousandspecialtechnical termsallofwhicharecompiledinitsown

thesaurus(CTNBulletin[Centresd'etudesdesconsequencesgeneratesdesgrandestechniquesnouvelles,Paris],June1968,p.6).Itisalsoestimatedthat"thenumberofbookspublishedhasaboutdoubledeverytwentyyearssince1450,andsome30millionhavebynowbeenpublishedtheprojectedfigureis60millionby1980"(CyrilBlack,TheDynamicsofModernization,NewYork,1966,p.12)andthat"sciencealoneseesthepublishingof100,000journalsayear,inmorethan60languages,afiguredoublingevery15years"(GlennT.Seaborg,"UneasyWorldGainsPoweroverDestiny,"TheNewYorkTimes,January6,1969).

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andtheassassinationsoftheKennedysandofMartinLutherKing, aswellasracialandsocialtensions,nottospeakofVietnam,havesomewhattarnishedAmerica'sidentificationwithfreedom.Instead,America'sinfluenceisinthefirstinstancescientificandtechnological,anditisafunctionofthescientific,technological,andeducationalleadoftheUnitedStates.*

Scientificandtechnologicaldevelopmentisadynamicprocess.Itdependsinthefirstinstanceontheresourcescommittedtoit,thepersonnelavailableforit,theeducationalbasethatsupportsit, andlastbutnotleastthefreedomofscientificinnovation.InallfourrespectstheAmericanpositionisadvantageouscontemporaryAmericaspendsmoreonscienceanddevotesgreaterresourcestoresearchthananyothersociety.

Inaddition,theAmericanpeopleenjoyaccesstoeducationonascalegreaterthanthatofmostotheradvancedsocieties.(SeeTables4and5.)Atthebeginningofthe1960stheUnitedStateshadmorethan66percentofits1519agegroupenrolledineducationalinstitutionscomparablefiguresforFranceandWestGermanywereabout31percentand20percent,respectively.ThecombinedpopulationsofFrance,Germany,Italy,andtheUnitedKingdomareequaltothatoftheUnitedStatesroughlytwohundredmillion.ButintheUnitedStates43percentofcollegeagepeopleareactuallyenrolled,whereasonly7to15percentareenrolledinthefourcountries(ItalyhavingthelowfigureandFrancethehigh).TheSovietpercentagewasapproximatelyhalfthatoftheAmerican. InactualnumbersthereareclosetosevenmillioncollegestudentsintheUnitedStatesandonlyaboutoneandahalfmillioninthefourEuropeancountries.Atthemoreadvancedlevelofthe2024agebracket,theAmericanfigurewas12percentwhilethatforWestGermany,thetopWesternEuropeancountry,wasabout5percent.Forthe 519 agebracket,theAmericanandtheWesternEuropeanlevelswereroughlyeven(about80percent),andtheSovietUniontrailedwith57percent.11

TABLE4. ACCESSTOHIGHERLEVEL EDUCATIONPER100,000OFTOTALPOPULATION (1950,1965)AbsoluteIncrease

1950 1965 19501965

UnitedStates 1,508 2,840 +1,332

WestGermany 256 632 +376

France 334 1,042 +708

Japan 471 1,140 4669USSB 693 1,674 +981

Poland 473 800 +327

India 113 (1963) 284 +171Indonesia 8 (1963) 95 487Brazil 98 189 +91

Algeria 52 68 +16

Asaresult,theUnitedStatespossessesapyramidofeducatedsocialtalentwhosewidebaseiscapableofprovidingeffectivesupportto'theleadingandcreativeapex.ThisistrueeventhoughinmanyrespectsAmericaneducationisoftenintellectuallydeficient,especiallyincomparisonwiththemorerigorousstandardsofWesternEuropeanandJapanesesecondaryinstitutions.Nonetheless,thebroadbaseofrelativelytrainedpeopleenablesrapidadaptation,development,andsocialapplicationofscientificinnovationordiscovery.

*Asasweepinggeneralization,itcanbesaidthatRomeexportedlawEngland,parliamentarypartydemocracyFrance,cultureand

republicannationalismthecontemporaryUnitedStates,technologicalscientificinnovationandmassculturederivedfromhighconsumption.Accordingtoa1968congressionalreport,"CurrentspendingonresearchanddevelopmentintheUnitedStatesamountstosome$24

billionannually abouttwothirdsfinancedbytheFederalGovernmentincontrasttoamere$6billioninallofWesternEurope."TheSovietfigurehasbeenestimatedtobeinthevicinityof8billionrubles,but,Americancostsbeinghigher,onerublebuysapproximately$3ofresearch.In1962,accordingtotheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD),theUnitedStateswasspending$93.70percapitaonresearchanddevelopmentBritain $33.50France$23.60andGermany$20.10.Asapercentageofgrossnationalproduct,theUnitedStates'expenditureonresearchanddevelopmentamountedto3.1Britain'sto2.2France'sto1.5Poland'sto1.6Germany'sto1.3andtheSovietUnion's to2.2.Thenumberofscientists,engineers,andtechniciansengagedinresearchanddevelopmenttotaled1,159,500intheUnitedStates211,100inBritain111,200inFrance142,200inGermany53,800inBelgiumandHollandandsomewhereover1,000,000 intheSovietUnion(C.FreemanandA.Young,TheResearchandDevelopmentEffortinWesternEurope,NorthAmericaandtheSovietUnion,OEGD,1965,pp.7172,124.SourceforPoland:aspeechbyA.Werblan,publishedbyPolishPressAgency,October15,1968.ThePolesexpecttoreach2.5percentonlyby1975.ForahigherestimateofSovietscientificmanpower,seeScientificPolicyintheUSSR,aspecialreportbytheOECD,1969,especiallypp.64247).Onaglobalscale,theUnitedStatesaccountsforroughlyonethirdoftheworld'stotalsupplyofscientificmanpower("TheScientificBrainDrainfromtheDevelopingCountriestotheUnitedStates,"TwentythirdReportbytheCommitteeonGovernmentOperations,HouseofBepresentatives,Washington,D.C.,March1968,p.3hereaftercitedasReport...).

America'sscientificleadisparticularlystronginthesocalledfrontierindustriesthatinvolvethemostadvancedfieldsofscience.Ithas

beenestimatedthatapproximately80percentofallscientificandtechnicaldiscoveriesmadeduringthepastfewdecadesoriginatedintheUnitedStates.About79percentoftheworld'scomputersoperateintheUnitedStates.America'sleadinlasersisevenmoremarked.TheInternationalAtomicEnergyAgencyhasestimated(initsreportPowerandResearchReactorsinMemberStates,Vienna,1969)thatby1975theUnitedStateswillutilizemorenuclearpowerforpeacefulusesthanthenextelevenstatescombined(includingJapan,allofWesternEurope,Canada,andtheSovietUnion).

17

Whilenopreciseestimatesarepossible,

UnitedStates (1965)349 Poland 81WestGermany 109 India (1962)45France 96 Indonesia Japan 233 Brazil 25

USSR 177 Algeria

TABLE5. NUMBEROFGRADUATESFROMHIGHERLEVEL INSTITUTIONSPER100,000OFTOTALPOPULATION (1964)Source: UNESCOStatisticalYearbook, 1967,Table2.1,4,pp.25968.Source: UNESCOStatisticalYearbook, 1967,Table2.10,pp.18599.

someexpertshavesuggestedthatapresentdaysocietywouldexperiencedifficultiesinrapidmodernizationiflessthan10percentofitspopulationintheappropriateage brackethadhighereducationandlessthan30percenthadlowereducation.

Moreover,boththeorganizationalstructureandtheintellectualatmosphereintheAmericanscientificworldfavourexperimentationandrapidsocialadaptation.InaspecialreportonAmericanscientificpolicies,submittedinearly1968,agroupofexpertsconnectedwithOECD*concludedthatAmerica'sscientificandtechnicalenterpriseisdeeplyrootedinAmericantraditionand history.Competitivenessandtheemphasisonquickexploitationhaveresultedinaquickspinoffoftheenormousdefenseandspaceresearcheffortsintotheeconomyasawhole,incontrasttothesituationintheSovietUnion,wheretheeconomicbyproductsofalmostaslargescalearesearchefforthave sofarbeennegligible.Itisnoteworthythat"theRussiansthemselvesestimatethattheproductivityoftheirresearchersisonlyabouthalftheAmericans'andthatinnovationstaketwoorthreetimesaslongtobeputintoeffect."12

Thisclimateandtheconcomitantrewardsforcreativeattainmentsresultinamagneticpull(the"braindrain")fromwhichAmericaclearlybenefits.Americaofferstomanytrainedscientists,evenfromadvancedcountries,notonlygreatermaterialrewardsbutauniqueopportunityforthemaximumfulfillmentoftheirtalents.InthepastWesternwritersandartistsgravitatedprimarilytowardParis.MorerecentlytheSovietUnionandChinahaveexercisedsomeideologicalattraction,butinneithercasediditinvolvethemovementofsignificantpercentagesofscientificelites.ThoughimmigratingscientistsinitiallythinkofAmericaasaplatformforcreativework,andnotasanationalsocietyto whichtheyaretransferringpoliticalallegiance,inmostcasesthatallegianceislaterobtainedthroughassimilation.America'sprofessionalattractionfortheglobalscientificeliteiswithouthistoricprecedentineitherscaleorscope.

*Tomeasureinnovatingperformance,OECDanalystscheckedtoseewhereonehundredandthirtynineselectedinventionswerefirstused.

Nineindustrialsectorsthatdependheavilyoninnovationweresurveyed(i.e.,computers,semiconductors,pharmaceuticals,plastics,ironandsteel,machinetools,nonferrousmetals,scientificinstruments,andsyntheticfibers).TheresultsshowedthatinthelasttwentyyearstheUnitedStateshashadthehighestrateofinnovation,sinceapproximately60percentoftheonehundredandthirtynineinventionswerefirstputtouseintheUnitedStates(15percentinGreatBritain,9percentinGermany,4percentinSwitzerland,3percentinSweden).TheUnitedStatescollects5060percentofallOECDareareceiptsforpatents,licenses,etc.theUnitedStatespredominatesintradeperformance,accountingforabout30percentoftheworld'sexportinresearchintensiveproductgroups(J.Richardsonand FordParks,"WhyEuropeLagsBehind," ScienceJournal, Vol.4,August1968,pp.8186).Itisstrikingtonote,forexample,thatwhileWesternEuropestillslightlyexceedstheUnitedStatesinthenumberofpatentsregisteredannually,industrialapplicationofpatentsisroughlyeighttimeshigherintheUnitedStates.Americanleadershipisalsomarkedinpurescience.Inanunusuallyassertivebutnotinaccuratereport,theNationalAcademyofSciencesstatedinlate1968thattheUnitedStatesenjoysworldleadershipinmathematics,citingasevidencethat50percentoftheprestigiousFields"Medalsawardedsince1945wenttoAmericans,thatAmericanmathematiciansplaytheleadingroleininternationalmathematicscongresses(deliveringmorethan33percentofallscientificpapers),andthatAmericanmathematicalresearchiscitedmostfrequentlyinforeignmathematicsjournals(TheNewYorkTimes, November24,1968).AmericanpreponderanceinNobelPrizesinPhysics,Chemistry,andMedicinehasalsobecomemoremarked.Thus,betweentheyears1901and1939theUnitedStatesandCanadawon13prizes,whileFrance,Germany,Italy,Benelux,andtheUnitedKingdomwonatotalof82,Scandinaviawon8,theUSSRwon4,andJapanwonnone.Between1940and1967therespectivefigureswere42,50,6,8,and2."SincethefirsthoursoftheRepublic,therightofcitizenstothe'pursuitofhappiness,'formulatedintheDeclarationofIndependence,has

beenoneofthemainspringsofAmericansocietyitis.alsothefoundationofasocialpolicyinspiredbytheprospectofnewbenefitsissuedfromthescientificandtechnicalenterprise.Howcanonefailtohopethatthesebenefits,whichhaveinfactcontributedsomuchtonationaldefenseortheraceforworldprestige,willmakeanessentialcontributiontotheachievementofothergreatnationalgoals?Itisthispropulsionwhichhasgivenscience,themotherofknowledge,theappearanceofaveritablenationalresource.TheenterpriseisindissolublylinkedtothegoalsofAmericansociety,whichistryingtobuilditsfutureontheprogressofscienceandtechnology.Inthiscapacity,thissocietyasawholeisaconsumerofscientificknowledge,whichisusedfordiverseends:inthelastcentury,toincreaseagriculturalproductivityandtofacilitateterritorialdevelopment,andthentobackthenationaldefenseeffort,tosafeguardpublichealthandtoexplorespace.Theseareactivitieswhichhaveanimpactonthedestinyofthewholenation,anditseemsnaturalthatallskillsshouldbemobilizedtocooperate.InthiswayindustryandtheuniversitiesandprivateorganizationsareassociatedwiththeGovernmentproject"(conclusionofareportpreparedbytheSecretariatoftheOECD,January1968,asquotedbyTheNewYork Times,January13,1968,p.10).InthewordsofE.Piore,vicepresidentandchiefscientistofI.B.M.,"TheUnitedStateshasbecometheintellectualcenteroftheworld

thecenterofthearts,thesciences,andeconomics"("TowardstheYear2000,"Daedalus,Summer1967,p.958).Itissymptomaticthatintheearly1960s,44percentofthePakistanistudentsstudyingatinstitutionsofhighereducationinfifteenforeigncountrieswerestudyingintheUnitedStates59percentoftheIndians32percentoftheIndonesians56percentoftheBurmese90percentoftheFilipinos64percentoftheThaisand26percentoftheCeylonese(GunnarMyrdal,AsianDrama,NewYork,1968,p.1773).In1967theUnitedStatesgranted10,690M.D.satitsownuniversities,andadmittedinthesameyearaspermanentimmigrants3457physicians(Report...,p.3).Inthatsameyear10,506scientific,engineering,andmedicalpersonnelfromthedevelopedcountriesemigratedtotheUnitedStates("TheBrainDrainof

18

ThoughthisattractionislikelytodeclineforEuropeans(particularlybecauseofAmerica'sdomesticproblemsandpartiallybecauseofEurope'sownscientificadvance),thesuccessofJ.J.ServanSchreiber'sbook,TheAmericanChallenge, reflectsthebasicinclinationofconcernedEuropeanstoaccepttheargument thattheUnitedStatescomesclosesttobeingtheonlytrulymodernsocietyintermsoftheorganizationandscaleofitseconomicmarket,businessadministration,researchanddevelopment,andeducation.(Incontrast,thestructureofAmericangovernment isviewedasstrikinglyantiquated.)EuropeansensitivityinthisareaisconditionednotonlybyfearofawideningAmericantechnologicalleadbutverymuchbytheincreasingpresenceontheEuropeanmarketsoflargeAmericanfirmsthatexploittheireconomicadvantagesofscaleandsuperiororganizationtograduallyacquirecontrollinginterestsinkeyfrontierindustries.Thepresenceofthesefirms,theemergenceundertheiraegisofsomethingakintoanewinternationalcorporateelite,thestimulationgivenbytheirpresencetotheadoptionofAmericanbusinesspracticesandtraining,thedeepeningawarenessthatthesocalledtechnologygapis.inrealityalsoamanagementandeducationgap13 allhavecontributedbothtoapositiveappraisalofAmerican"technostructure"bytheEuropeanbusinessandscientificeliteandtothedesiretoadaptsomeofAmerica'sexperience.

LesstangiblebutnolesspervasiveistheAmericanimpactonmassculture,youthmores,andlifestyles.Thehigherthelevelofpercapitaincomeinacountry,themoreapplicableseemstheterm"Americanization."ThisindicatesthattheexternalformsofcharacteristiccontemporaryAmericanbehaviorarenotsomuchculturallydeterminedastheyareanexpressionofacertainlevelofurban,technical,andeconomicdevelopment.Nonetheless,totheextentthattheseforrnswerefirstappliedinAmericaandthen"exported"abroad,theybecamesymbolicoftheAmericanimpactandoftheinnovationemulationrelationshipprevailingbetweenAmericaandtherestoftheworld.

WhatmakesAmericauniqueinourtimeisthatconfrontationwiththenewispartofthedailyAmericanexperience.Forbetterorforworse,therestoftheworldlearnswhatisinstoreforitbyobservingwhathappensintheUnitedStates:whetheritbethelatestscientificdiscoveriesinspaceandmedicineortheelectrictoothbrushinthebathroompopartorLSDairconditioningorairpollutionoldageproblemsorjuveniledelinquency.Theevidenceismoreelusiveinsuchmattersasstyle,music,values,andsocialmores,buttheretootheterm"Americanization"obviouslyimplies aspecificsource.

Similarly,foreignstudentsreturningfromAmericanuniversities havepromptedanorganizationalandintellectualrevolutionintheacademiclifeoftheircountries.ChangesintheacademiclifeofGermany,theUnitedKingdom,JapanandmorerecentlyFrance,andtoanevengreaterextentinthelessdevelopedcountries,canbetracedtotheinfluenceofAmericaneducationalinstitutions.Givendevelopmentsinmoderncommunications,itisonlyamatteroftimebeforestudentsatColumbiaUniversityand,say,theUniversityofTeheranwillbewatchingthesamelecturersimultaneously.

ThisisallthemorelikelybecauseAmericansociety,morethananyother,"communicates"withtheentireglobe.14Roughlysixtyfivepercentofallworldcommunicationsoriginateinthiscountry.Moreover,theUnitedStateshasbeenmostactiveinthepromotionofaglobalcommunicationssystembymeansofsatellites,anditispioneeringthedevelopmentofaworldwideinformationgrid.*Itisexpectedthatsuchagridwillcomeintobeingbyabout1975.15Forthefirsttimeinhistory thecumulativeknowledgeofmankindwillbemadeaccessibleonaglobalscaleanditwillbealmostinstantaneouslyavailableinresponsetodemand.

NewImperialism?AllofthesefactorsmakeforanovelrelationshipbetweentheUnitedStatesandtheworld.Thereareimperialovertonestoit,andyetinitsessencetherelationshipisquitedifferentfromthetraditionalimperialstructure.Tobesure,thefactthatintheaftermathofWorldWarIIanumberofnationsweredirectlydependentontheUnitedStatesinmattersofsecurity,politics,andeconomicscreatedasystemthatinmanyrespects,includingthatofscale,superficiallyresembledtheBritish,Roman,andChineseempiresofthepast.16ThemorethanamillionAmericantroopsstationedonsome fourhundredmajorandalmostthreethousandminorUnitedStatesmilitarybasesscatteredallovertheglobe,thefortytwonationstiedtotheUnitedStatesbysecuritypacts,theAmericanmilitarymissionstrainingtheofficersandtroopsofmanyothernationalarmies,andtheapproximatelytwohundredthousandUnitedStatesciviliangovernmentemployeesinforeignpostsallmakeforstrikinganalogiestothegreatclassicalimperialsystems.17

Nevertheless,theconceptof"imperial"shieldsratherthan revealsarelationshipbetweenAmericaandtheworldthatisbothmorecomplexandmoreintimate.The"imperial"aspectoftherelationshipwas,inthefirstinstance,atransitoryandratherspontaneousresponsetothevacuumcreatedbyWorldWarIIandtothesubsequentfeltthreatfromcommunism.Moreover,itwasneitherformallystructurednorexplicitlylegitimized.The"empire"wasatmostaninformalsystemmarkedbythepretenseofequalityand noninterference.Thismadeiteasierforthe"imperial"attributestorecedeonceconditionschanged.Bythelate1960s,withafew

Scientists,EngineersandPhysiciansfromtheDevelopingCountriestotheUnitedStates,"HearingbeforeaSubcommitteeonGovernmentOperations,HouseofRepresentatives,Washington,D.C.,January23,1968,pp.2,96hereaftercitedasHearing...).*Itisestimated(bytheInstituteforPoliticsandPlanning,Arlington,Virginia)thatthevolumeofdigitalcommunicationwillshortlyexceed

humanconversationacrosstheAtlanticithasalreadydonesointheUnitedStates.Moreover,withinthenextdecadethevalueofinformationexportfromtheUnitedStatestoEuropewillexceedthevalueofmaterialexports.

19

exceptionstheearlierdirectpoliticalmilitarydependenceontheUnitedStateshaddeclined(ofteninspiteofpoliticaleffortsbytheUnitedStatestomaintainit).ItsplacehadbeenfilledbythemorepervasivebutlesstangibleinfluenceofAmericaneconomicpresenceandinnovationastheyoriginateddirectlyfromtheUnitedStatesorwerestimulatedabroadbyAmericanforeigninvestment(thelatterannuallyyieldinga productconsiderablyinexcessofthegrossnationalproductofmostmajorcountries).18Ineffect,"...Americaninfluencehasaporousandalmostinvisiblequality.Itworksthroughtheinterpenetrationofeconomicinstitutions,thesympatheticharmonyofpoliticalleadersandparties,thesharedconceptsofsophisticatedintellectuals,thematingofbureaucraticinterests.Itis,inotherwords,somethingnewintheworld,andnotyetwellunderstood."19

ItisthenoveltyofAmerica'srelationshipwiththeworldcomplex,intimate,andporousthatthemoreorthodox,especiallyMarxist,analysesofimperialismfailtoencompass.Toseethatrelationshipmerelyastheexpressionofanimperialdriveistoignorethepartplayedinitbythecrucialdimensionofthetechnologicalscientificrevolution.Thatrevolutionnotonlycaptivatestheimaginationofmankind(whocanfailtobemovedbythespectacleofmanreachingthemoon?)butinescapablycompelsimitationofthemoreadvancedbythelessadvancedandstimulatestheexportofnewtechniques,methods,andorganizationalskillsfromtheformertothelatter.Thereisnodoubtthatthisresultsinanasymmetricalrelationship,butthecontentofthatasymmetrymustbeexaminedbeforeitiscalledimperialism.Likeeverysociety,Americanodoubtpreferstobemoreratherthanlessadvancedyetitisalsostrikingthatnoothercountryhasmadesogreataneffort,governmentallyandprivately,throughbusinessandespeciallythroughfoundations,toexportitsknowhow,tomakepublicitsspacefindings,topromotenewagriculturaltechniques,toimproveeducationalfacilities,tocontrolpopulationgrowth,toimprovehealthcare,andsoon.Allofthishasimperialovertones,andyetitismisleadingtolabelitassuch.20

Indeed,unabletounderstandfullywhatishappeninginthenownsociety,Americansfinditdifficulttocomprehendtheglobalimpactthatthatsocietyhashadinitsuniqueroleasdisseminatorofthetechnetronicrevolution.Thisimpactiscontradictory:itbothpromotesandunderminesAmericaninterestsasdefinedbyAmericanpolicymakersithelpstoadvancethecauseofcooperationonalargerscaleevenasitdisruptsexistingsocialoreconomicfabricsitbothlaysthegroundworkforwellbeingandstabilityandenhancestheforcesworkingforinstabilityandrevolution.Unliketraditionalimperialisticpowers,whichreliedheavilyontheprincipleof divideetimpera(practicedwithstrikingsimilaritybytheBritishinIndiaandmorerecentlybytheRussiansinEasternEurope),AmericahasstriventopromoteregionalismbothinEuropeandinLatinAmerica.Yetinsodoing,itishelpingtocreatelargerentitiesthataremorecapableofresistingitsinfluenceandofcompetingwithiteconomically.Implicitlyandoftenexplicitly modelledontheAmericanpattern,modernizationmakesforpotentiallygreatereconomicwellbeing,butintheprocessitdisruptsexistinginstitutions,underminesprevailingmores,andstimulatesresentmentthatfocusesdirectlyonthesourceofchangeAmerica.TheresultisanacutetensionbetweenthekindofglobalstabilityandorderthatAmericasubjectivelyseeksandtheinstability,impatience,andfrustrationthatAmericaunconsciouslypromotes.

TheUnitedStateshasemergedasthefirstglobalsocietyinhistory.Itisasocietyincreasinglydifficulttodelineateinterms ofitsouterCulturalandeconomicboundaries.Moreover,itisunlikelythatintheforeseeablefutureAmericawillceasetoexercisetheinnovativestimulusthatischaracteristicofitscurrentrelationshipwiththeworld.Bytheendofthiscentury(extrapolatingfromcurrenttrends)onlysomethirteencountriesarelikelytoreachthe1965levelofthepercapitagrossnationalproductoftheUnitedStates.21Unlessthereismajorscientificandeconomicstagnationorapoliticalcrisis(seePartIV),attheendofthecenturyAmericawillstillbeasignificantforceforglobalchange,whetherornotthedominantsubjectivemoodisproorantiAmerican.

3.GlobalGhettosTheThird"Worldisavictimofthetechnetronicrevolution.Whetherthelessdevelopedcountriesgrow

rapidlyorslowly,ornotatall,almostinevitablymanyofthemwillcontinuetobe''dominatedbyintensifyingfeelingsofpsychologicaldeprivation.Inaworldelectronicallyintermeshed,absoluteorrelativeunderdevelopmentwillbeintolerable,especiallyasthemoreadvancedcountriesbegintomovebeyondthatindustrialeraintowhichthelessdevelopedcountrieshaveasyettoenter.Itisthus nolongeramatterofthe"revolutionofrisingexpectations."TheThirdWorldtodayconfrontsthespecterofinsatiableaspirations.

Atonetimeinhistoryseeminglyinsolubleproblemspromptedfatalismbecausetheywerethoughttobepartofauniversalcondition.Todaysimilarproblemsstimulatefrustrationbecausetheyareseenasaparticularphenomenonbywhichothers,morefortunate,arenotafflicted.TheplightoftheurbanghettosintheUnitedStatesprovidesanappropriateanalogytotheglobalpositionofthelessdevelopedcountries,particularlyinAfricaandAsia.Theirproblemisnot thatoftheabsenceofchange.*Insomecasesitisnoteventhatof

*"ThegrowthrateofthesecountriesduringtheDevelopmentDecadehasnotreachedtheannualfigureof5percentwhichwassetasthe

minimumtarget.Actuallytheaveragerateforfiftyfourcountries,representing87percentofthepopulationofthedevelopingworldasawhole,wasonly4.5percentperannumfromi960to1965....Amongthefiftyfourcountriesmentioned,thereisa groupofeighteenwithanaveragegrowthrateof7.3percentperannum,whiletherateforfifteencountrieswasscarcely2.7percentperannum....Betweenthesetwoextremesthereweretwentyonecountrieswhoseaveragegrowthratewas4.9percent"("TowardsaGlobalStrategyofDevelopment,"areportbytheSecretaryGeneraloftheUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,NewYork,1968,p.5).

20

insufficientlyrapidchange,becauseinrecentyearsseveralunderdevelopedcountrieshaveattainedimpressiveandsustainedratesofgrowth(SouthKorea,Taiwan,andGhana,forexample).Rather,theirproblemarisesfromanintensifyingfeelingofrelativedeprivationofwhichtheyaremademoreacutelyawarebythespreadofeducationandcommunications.Asaresult,passiveresignationmaygivewaytoactiveexplosionsofundirectedanger.

ProspectsforChangeItisextremelydifficulttopredicttheeconomicandpoliticaldevelopmentoftheunderdeveloped

countries.Some ofthem,especiallyinLatinAmerica,maymakerespectableprogressandmay,withinthenexttwodecades,reachtheeconomiclevelsofthecurrentlymoreadvancedstates.IslandsofdevelopmentmayincreasinglydotthemapsofAsiaandAfrica,assumingthatthereisrelativepeaceandpoliticalstabilityintheregionasawhole.Buttheoverallprognosisisnothopeful.Mediumprojectionsforseveralofthemoreimportantunderdevelopedcountriespointto apercapitaannualgrossnationalproductin1985of$107forNigeria,$134forPakistan,$112forIndonesia,$169forIndia,$185forChina,$295fortheUnitedArabRepublic,and$372forBrazil.(Bywayofcontrast,theprospectivepercapitafigurefor1985fortheUnitedStatesis$6510,forJapan$3080,fortheUSSR$2660,andforIsrael$2978.)22WhatisevenmorestrikingisthatwhilethepercapitaGNPintheaboveadvancedcountriesislikelytodoubleduringtheyears19651985,forasingleNigerianthepercapitaGNPwillhaveincreasedbyonly$14,foraPakistaniby$43,foranIndonesianby$12,foranIndianby$70,foraChineseby$88,foranEgyptianby$129,andforaBrazilianby$92duringthesametwodecadesofdevelopment.

Thethreatofoverpopulationtoeconomicgrowthindeedtoexistenceitselfhasbeenwidelydiscussedinrecentyears.Thatthreat,itshouldbeadded,involvesacrucialsocialpoliticaldimension.Overpopulationcontributestothebreakupoflandholdingsandtherebyfurtherstratifiesandcomplicatestheruralclassstructure,wideningdisparitiesandintensifyingclassconflicts.Staggeringproblemsofunemploymentarealsohighlyprobable.AccordingtotheInternationalLabourOrganization,by1980thelabourforceofAsia'sdevelopingnationswillhaveincreasedfrom663millionto938million.Duringthissameperiodthenumberofnewjobsinthesecountrieswillincreasebyonly142million,accordingtoprojectionsofcurrentgrowthrates.23

Evenif itisassumedthattheproblemofoverpopulationwillbemetbygreateracceptanceofbirthcontrol,theeconomicpictureintermsof thepercapitaGNPforunderdevelopedcountriesbecomesonlymarginallybrighterwhenitiscomparedwiththefiguresprojectedforthemoreadvancedsocieties.Forexample,intheunlikelyeventthatby1985Indonesia'spopulationwillnothaveincreasedsince1965,itspercapitaGNPwillbeapproximately$200insteadoftheprojected$112undersimilarcircumstances,forPakistanitwillbe$250insteadoftheprojected$134,andfortheUnitedArabRepublicalmost$500insteadof$295.Sincesomepopulationgrowthisunavoidable,theabovefiguresactuallyrepresentunattainablelevels,eventhoughtheyareinthemselvessingularlyunimpressivewhencomparedwiththefiguresforthemoreadvancedportionsoftheworld.

Topointtothesefiguresisnottoexcludetheprobabilitythatprogresswillbemadeinsomefields.Itisprobablytruethat"thepictureoftheworldin1985,despitethelargepocketsofpovertythatwillstillexist,isfarfromgrim.Indeed,by1985massstarvation,masshomelessness,andtherampantspreadofdiseasesthathavehistoricallydecimatedentirepopulationswillbegenerallyeliminated.Althoughtheunderdevelopedcountrieswillstillbecomparativelypoor,theywillhavegreaterandmoreimmediateaccesstoworldwidetransportationandcommunicationssystemsandtotheprovisionofdrugs,medicalcare,food,shelterandclothingthroughinternationalassistanceintheeventofdisaster.ThesurpluscommodityproductionoftheUnitedStateswillbeanimportantelementinthefeedingofunderprivilegednations."24Onemayassumethattheappearanceofgreaterinternationalplanningintermsofinternationalcommodityagreements,transportarrangements,healthregulations,finance,andeducationwillmakeformoreorderlyanddeliberateapproachestotheproblemsposedbybackwardness,slowgrowth,andthewideningdisparityinstandardsofliving.Theincreasingcommunicationsintimacywillpermitinstantresponsestosuddenemergenciesandallowforcontinuouslongdistancevisualconsultationsbyspecialists.Intheeventofneed,aidcouldbemobilizedandferriedacrosstheglobeinnomoretimethanisnowneededtorespondtoaninternalnationalcalamityorevenanurbanone.

TheagriculturalrevolutioninAsiaisalreadychallengingtherecentlyfashionablepredictionsofmasshungerandstarvation.Masseducationalcampaignsandtheintroductionofnewcerealsandfertilizershavepromptedanimpressiveupsurgeinproductivity.WithinthenextfewyearsPakistan,thePhilippines,andTurkeymaybecomegrainexportingstatesThailandandBurmaalreadyhave.Thecumulativeeffectofsuchsuccessesmaywellbeto"bolstertheconfidenceofnationalleadersintheirabilitytohandleotherseeminglyinsolubleproblems.Itmayalsostrengthenthefaithinmoderntechnologyanditspotentialforimprovingthewellbeingoftheirpeople."25

Yetevenallowingforthesemorehopefuldevelopments,thefactremainsthatthoughthematerialconditionsoflifeintheThirdWorldareinsomerespectsimproving,theseimprovementscannotkeeppacewiththefactorsthatmake forpsychicchange.Thebasicrevolutionarychangeisbeingbroughtaboutbyeducationandcommunications.Thatchange,necessaryanddesirabletostimulateanattitudereceptivetoinnovation(forexample,theacceptancebypeasantsoffertilizers),alsopromptsanintenseawarenessofinadequacyand

21

backwardness.Inthisregard,acomparisonofthecontemporarysocioeconomictransformationoftheThirdWorld

withthatofRussiaatabouttheturnofthecenturyisrevealing.InRussiathe industrialrevolutionoutpacedmasseducationliteracyfollowedratherthanprecededmaterialchange.*Therevolutionarymovements,particularlytheMarxistone,strovetoclosethegapbypoliticallyeducatinghenceradicalizingthemasses.Todayinthe ThirdWorldasubjectiverevolutionisprecedingchangeintheobjectiveenvironmentandcreatingastateofunrest,uneasiness,anger,anguish,andoutrage.Indeed,ithasbeenobservedthat"thefastertheenlightenmentofthepopulation,themorefrequenttheoverthrowofthegovernment."

Thisgapbetweenawakeningmassconsciousnessandmaterialrealityappearstobewidening.Intheyears19581965theincomepercapitaofanIndianrosefrom$64to$86andthatofanIndonesianfrom$81to$85the incomeofanAlgeriandeclinedfrom$236to$19526ThepercentageoftheeconomicallyactivepopulationinfieldsotherthanagriculturegrewsubstantiallyonlyinAlgeria(from10percentto18percent).Housing,physiciansperthousandinhabitants,andpersonalconsumptiondidnotshowsignificantadvancesforthemajorbackwardareas.Insometheyevenshowedadecrease.27(SeeTable6.)

TheSubjectiveTransformationAlthoughobjectiveconditionschangedslowly,thesubjectiveenvironmentalteredrapidly.Spe