Youth Participation in Climate Changetheanglicanchurchtt.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CDRM-2020-1.pdfnews for all species, which depend on plants for food, shelter, and survival.

YOUR COMPLIMENTARY COPY

2020/2021 CARIBBEAN/LATIN AMERICADISASTER READINESS MANUAL

Climate Change

Climate Change

Climate Change

Youth Participation in

for a Sustainable planet

VOLU

ME 23

Funded byEuropean Union

Humanitarian Aid &Civil Protection

Today, another force is driving Earth towards its next extinction event. Human-driven changes to the planet are hitting global species on multiple

fronts, as hotter oceans, deforestation, and climate change drive floral and faunal

populations to extinction in unprecedented numbers. As much as half of the total

number of animal individuals that once shared the Earth with humans are already gone, a clear sign that we're on the brink, if not in

the midst of, a sixth mass extinction.

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EDITORIAL DEPARTMENT:A. A. Bagalue Publisher /Climate Change Analyst

MARKETING:Email: [email protected]: 1-868-238-60251-868-770-2797/ 793-2459 (mobiles)P.O. Box 5958 UWI, St. Augustine, Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

ART DIRECTION:Kenneth [email protected]

PHOTOGRAPHY: T&T NewsdayKenneth HenryA.A. BagalueThe United Nations Photo Library.

Development Team Work Supported By:

*NASA Science Mission Directorate (formerly NASA's Office of Space Science) *United States Geological Survey - Flagstaff

PRINTING: Scrip-J Ltd., Republic of Trinidad & Tobago

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSIPCC - The CARIBSAVE Partnership for UNDP Barbados and the OECS for CARICOM Member States Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC)Additional Administrator, Sarah Diouf (WMO Secretariat)

DISTRIBUTION: Jamaica, Antigua, Cayman Islands, Trinidad and Tobago Barbados, Antigua, Grenada, Aruba, St. Lucia, Surinam, Guyana Belize, Bahamas, Beacon Insurance Co. Ltd, Guardian General Insurance Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, TEMA-Tobago, ODPM-Trinidad, Guardian General Insurance Co. Ltd., Life Style Motors, Association of Caribbean States, Adaptation (Spain), UNISDR – Africa.

Caribbean disaster @AntonyBagalue

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Extinction TrailA. A Bagalue CEO/Publisher /Climate Change Analyst

The Future is NOW: Youth Action on Climate ChangeDorlan Burrell, Co-founder and Director of Enablers of Community Advancement Projects and Initiatives (ECAPI) Limited

IPCC Climate Change and Land ReportMarks Critical Contribution To Global EffortWMO

An Approach to Cope Climate Change: From Risk to Resilience Serhat Sensoy, Engineer, Turkish State Meteorological Service,Ankara, Turkey

Effects of Climate Change on Youths!Rosanna Beharry

1.5ºC How Close Are We?IPCC

With Thick Ice Gone, Arctic Sea Ice Changes More SlowlyCarol Rasmussen, NASA's Earth Science News Team

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Gaia - The Primordial GoddessNicholas B Robson MA (Brad) CSCM

Temperature and Rainfall Under Climate Change Effect in the North-East part of AlgeriaBesma Boudiaf, Algeria

Records category 5 Hurricane Dorian smashes the Bahamas Records category 5 Hurricane Dorian smashes the Bahamas

1. The Arctic is melting 2. Mass starvation is imminent3. Extreme weather will kill billions4. Iconic animals are nearly extinct5. Millions of species are at risk6. Coral Reefs will not make it7. The Rainforests are done forHowever, system change is still possible.Warmer climate will dramatically increasethe volatility of global corn crops.

t is frightening but true: Our planet is now in the midst of its sixth mass extinction of plants and animals — the sixth wave of extinctions in the past half-billion years. We are currently experiencing the worst spate of species die-offs since the loss of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. Although extinction is a natural phenomenon,

it occurs at a natural “background” rate of about one to five species per year. Scientists estimate we are now losing species at up to 1,000 times the background rate, with literally dozens going extinct every day. It could be a scary future indeed, with as many as 30 to 50 percent of all species possibly heading toward extinction by 2050-2070

Unlike past mass extinctions, caused by events like asteroid strikes, volcanic eruptions, and natural climate shifts, the current crisis is almost entirely caused by us — humans. In fact, 99 % of currently threatened species are at risk from human activities, primarily those driving habitat loss, introduction of exotic species, and global warming. Because the rate of change in our biosphere is increasing, and because every species' extinction potentially leads to the extinction of others bound to that species in a complex ecological web, numbers of extinctions are likely to snowball in the coming decades as ecosystems unravel.

Species diversity ensures ecosystem resilience, giving ecological communities the scope they need to withstand stress. Thus while conservationists often justifiably focus their efforts on species-rich ecosystems like rainforests and coral reefs — which have a lot to lose — a comprehensive strategy for saving biodiversity must also include habitat types with fewer species, like grasslands, tundra, and polar seas — for which any loss could be irreversibly devastating. And while much concern over extinction focuses on globally lost species, most of biodiversity's benefits take place at a local level, and conserving local populations is the only way to ensure genetic diversity critical for a species' long-term survival.

AA BagalueCEO/Publisher of the CDRM

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In the past five centuries , we know of approximately 1,000 species that have gone extinct, from the woodland bison of West Virginia and Arizona's Merriam's elk to the Rocky Mountain grasshopper, passenger pigeon and Puerto Rico's Culebra parrot — but this does not account for thousands of species that disappeared before scientists had a chance to describe them. The IUCN has assessed roughly 3 percent of described species and identified 17,000 species worldwide as being threatened with extinction, or roughly 38 percent of those assessed.

What is clear is that many thousands of species are at risk of disappearing forever in the coming decades.

AMPHIBIANSNo group of animals has a higher rate of endangerment than amphibians. Scientists estimate that a third or more of all the roughly 6,300 known species of amphibians are at risk of extinction. The current amphibian extinction rate may range from 25,039 to 45,474 times the background extinction rate.

Frogs, toads, and salamanders are disappearing because of habitat loss, water and air pollution, climate change, ultraviolet light exposure, introduced exotic species, and disease. Because of their sensitivity to environmental changes, vanishing amphibians should be viewed as the canary in the global coalmine, signalling subtle yet radical ecosystem changes that could ultimately claim many other species, including humans.

BIRDSBirds occur in nearly every habitat on the planet and are often the most visible and familiar wildlife to people across the globe. As such, they provide an important bellwether for tracking changes to the biosphere. Declining bird populations across most to all habitats confirm that profound changes are occurring on our planet in response to human activities.

A recent report on the state of birds in the United States found that 251 (31 percent) of the 800 species in the country are of conservation concern. Globally, BirdLife International estimates

that 12 percent of known 9,865 bird species are now considered threatened, with 192 species, or 2 percent, facing an “extremely high risk” of extinction in the wild.

FISH Increasing demand for water, the damming of rivers throughout the world, the dumping and accumulation of various pollutants, and invasive species make aquatic ecosystems some of the most threatened on the planet; thus, it's not surprising that there are many fish species that are endangered in both freshwater and marine habitats.

The American Fisheries Society identified 700 species of freshwater or anadromous fish in North America as being imperiled, amounting to 39 percent of all such fish on the continent. In North American marine waters, at least 82 fish species are imperiled. Across the globe, 1,851 species of fish — 21 percent of all fish species evaluated — were deemed at risk of extinction by the IUCN, including more than a third of sharks and rays.

INVERTEBRATES Invertebrates, from butterflies to mollusks to earthworms to corals, are vastly diverse — and though no one knows just how many invertebrate species exist, they are estimated to account for about 97 percent of the total species of animals on Earth. Of the 1.3 million known invertebrate species, 9,526 species, with about 30 percent of the species evaluated at risk of extinction. Freshwater invertebrates are severely threatened by water pollution, groundwater withdrawal, and water projects, while a large number of invertebrates of notable scientific significance have become either endangered or extinct due to deforestation, especially because of the rapid destruction of tropical rainforests. In the ocean, reef-building corals are declining at an alarming rate:

MAMMALSPerhaps one of the most striking elements of the present extinction crisis is the fact that the majority of our closest relatives — the primates — are severely endangered. About 90 percent of

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primates — the group that contains monkeys, lemurs, lorids, galagos, tarsiers, and apes (as well as humans) — live in tropical forests, which are fast disappearing. Almost 50 percent of the world's primate species are at risk of extinction. Overall, estimates that half the globe's nearly 5,491 known mammals are declining in population and a fifth are clearly at risk of disappearing forever with no less than 1,131 mammals across the globe classified as endangered, threatened, or vulnerable. In addition to primates, marine mammals — including several species of whales, dolphins, and porpoises — are among those mammals slipping most quickly toward extinction.

PLANTSThrough photosynthesis, plants provide the oxygen we breathe and the food we eat and are thus the foundation of most life on Earth. They are also the source of a majority of medicines in use today. Of the more than 300,000 known species of plants, the IUCN has evaluated only 12,914 species, finding that about 68 percent of evaluated plant species are threatened with extinction.

Unlike animals, plants cannot readily move as their habitat is destroyed, making them particularly vulnerable to extinction. Indeed, one study found that habitat destruction leads to an “extinction debt,” whereby plants that appear dominant will disappear over time because they are not able to disperse to new habitat patches. Global warming is likely to substantially exacerbate this problem. Already, scientists say, warming temperatures are causing quick and dramatic changes in the range and distribution of plants around the world. With plants making up the backbone of ecosystems and the base of the food chain, that's very bad news for all species, which depend on plants for food, shelter, and survival.

REPTILESGlobally, 21 percent of the total evaluated reptiles in the world are deemed endangered or vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN — 594 species — while in the United States, 32 reptile species are at risk, about 9 percent of the total. Island reptile species have been dealt the hardest blow, with at least 28 island reptiles having died out since 1600. But scientists say that island-style extinctions are creeping onto the main lands because human activities fragment continental habitats, creating “virtual islands” as they isolate species from one another, preventing interbreeding and hindering populations' health. The main threats to reptiles are habitat destruction and the invasion of non-native species, which prey on reptiles and compete with them for habitat and food.

PROTECTING OUR WILDLIFE - A Race Against TimeThe unrestricted exploitation of wildlife has led to the disappearance of many animal species at an alarming rate, destroying earth's biological diversity and upsetting the ecological balance. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is actively involved in working with Governments, scientists, private organizations and other concerned groups to preserve and protect our endangered species.

Tiger cubs in Mysore, India.Mysore, India

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FAQ 1.2 How Close are we to 1.5°C? Summary: Human-induced warming has already reached about 1°C above pre-industrial levels at the time of writing of this Special Report. By the decade 2006–2015, human activity had warmed the world by 0.87°C (±0.12°C) compared to pre-industrial times (1850–1900). If the current warming rate continues, the world would reach human-induced global warming of 1.5°C around 2040. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions with a view to ‘holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

While the overall intention of strengthening the global response to climate change is clear, the Paris Agreement does not specify precisely what is meant by ‘global average temperature’, or what period in history should be considered ‘pre-industrial’. To answer the question of how close are we to 1.5°C of warming, we need to first be clear about how both terms are defined in this Special Report.

The choice of pre-industrial reference period, along with the method used to calculate global average temperature, can alter scientists’ estimates of historical warming by a couple of tenths of a degree Celsius. Such differences become important in the context of a global temperature limit just half a degree above where we are now. But provided consistent definitions are used, they do not affect our understanding of how human activity is influencing the climate. In principle, ‘pre-industrial levels’ could refer to any period of time before the start of the industrial revolution. But the number of direct temperature measurements decreases as we go back in time.

Defining a ‘pre-industrial’ reference period is, therefore, a compromise between the reliability of the temperature information and how representative it is of truly pre-industrial conditions. Some pre-industrial

periods are cooler than others for purely natural reasons. This could be because of spontaneous climate variability or the response of the climate to natural perturbations, such as volcanic eruptions and variations in the sun’s activity. This IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C uses the reference period 1850–1900 to represent pre-industrial temperature.

This is the earliest period with near-global observations and is the reference period used as an approximation of preindustrial temperatures in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Once scientists have defined ‘pre-industrial’, the next step is to calculate the amount of warming at any given time relative to that reference period. In this report, warming is defined as the increase in the 30-year global average of combined air temperature over land and water temperature at the ocean surface.

1.5 OCHow Close Are We?

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The 30-year timespan accounts for the effect of natural variability, which can cause global temperatures to fluctuate from one year to the next. For example, 2015 and 2016 were both affected by a strong El Niño event, which amplified the underlying human-caused warming. In the decade 2006–2015, warming reached 0.87°C (±0.12°C) relative to 1850–1900, predominantly due to human activity increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Given that global temperature is currently rising by 0.2°C (±0.1°C) per decade, human-induced warming reached 1°C above pre-industrial levels around 2017 and, if this pace of warming continues, would reach 1.5°C around 2040. While the change in global average temperature tells researchers about how the planet as a whole is changing, looking more closely at specific regions, countries and seasons reveals important details. Since the 1970s, most land regions have been warming faster than the global average, for example. This means that warming in many regions has already exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Over a fifth of the global population live in regions that have already experienced warming in at least one season that is greater than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. (continued on next page) 8 Frequently Asked Questions FAQ FAQ 1.2, Figure 1 | Human-induced warming reached approximately 1°C above pre-industrial levels in 2017. At the present rate, global temperatures would reach 1.5°C around 2040. Stylized 1.5°C pathway shown here involves emission reductions beginning immediately, and CO2 emissions reaching zero by 2055. Current warming rate FAQ1.2: How close are we to 1.5°C? Climate uncertainty for 1.5°C pathway Human-induced warming 2017 Observed warming Global temperature change relative to 1850-1900 (°C) 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.

FAQ 2.1 What Kind of Pathways Limit Warming to 1.5°C and are we on Track? Summary: There is no definitive way to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

This Special Report identifies two main conceptual pathways to illustrate different interpretations. One stabilizes global temperature at, or just below, 1.5°C. Another sees global temperature temporarily exceed 1.5°C before coming back down.

Countries’ pledges to reduce their emissions are currently not in line with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Scientists use computer models to simulate the emissions of greenhouse gases that would be consistent with different levels of warming. The different possibilities are often referred to as ‘greenhouse gas emission pathways’. There is no single, definitive pathway to limiting warming to 1.5°C. This IPCC special report identifies two main pathways that explore global warming of 1.5°C.

The first involves global temperature stabilizing at or below before 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The second pathway sees warming exceed 1.5°C around mid-century, remain above 1.5°C for a maximum duration of a few decades, and return to below 1.5°C before 2100. The latter is often referred to as an ‘overshoot’ pathway. Any alternative situation in which global temperature continues to rise, exceeding 1.5°C permanently until the end of the 21st century, is not considered to be a 1.5°C pathway.

The two types of pathway have different implications for greenhouse gas emissions, as well as for climate change impacts and for achieving sustainable development. For example, the larger and longer an ‘overshoot’, the greater the reliance on practices or technologies that remove CO2 from the atmosphere, on top of reducing the sources of emissions (mitigation). Such ideas for CO2 removal have not been proven to work at scale and, therefore, run the risk of being less practical, effective or economical than assumed. There is also the risk that the use of CO2 removal techniques ends up competing for land and water, and if these trade-offs are not appropriately managed, they can adversely affect sustainable development.

Additionally, a larger and longer overshoot increases the risk for irreversible climate impacts, such as the onset of the collapse of polar ice shelves and accelerated sea level rise. Countries that formally accept or ‘ratify’ the Paris Agreement submit pledges for how they intend to address climate change. Unique to each country, these pledges are known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Different groups of researchers around the world have analysed the combined effect of adding up all the NDCs. Such analyses show that current pledges are not on track to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. If current pledges for 2030 are achieved but no more, researchers find very few (if any) ways to reduce emissions after 2030 sufficiently quickly to limit warming to 1.5°C.

This, in turn, suggests that with the national pledges as they stand, warming would exceed 1.5°C, at least for a period of time, and practices and technologies that remove CO2 from the atmosphere at a global scale would be required to return warming to 1.5°C at a later date. A world that is consistent with holding warming to 1.5°C would see greenhouse gas emissions rapidly decline in the coming decade, with strong international cooperation and a scaling up of countries’ combined ambition beyond current NDCs. In contrast, delayed action, limited international cooperation, and weak or fragmented policies that lead to stagnating or increasing greenhouse gas emissions would put the possibility of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels out of reach.

FAQ 2.2 What do Energy Supply and Demand have to do with Limiting Warming to 1.5°C? Summary: Limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would require major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in all sectors. But different sectors are not independent of each other, and making changes in one can have implications for another. For example,

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if we as a society use a lot of energy, then this could mean we have less flexibility in the choice of mitigation options available to limit warming to 1.5°C. If we use less energy, the choice of possible actions is greater – for example, we could be less reliant on technologies that remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. To stabilize global temperature at any level, ‘net’ CO2 emissions would need to be reduced to zero.

This means the amount of CO2 entering the atmosphere must equal the amount that is removed. Achieving a balance between CO2 ‘sources’ and ‘sinks’ is often referred to as ‘net zero’ emissions or ‘carbon neutrality’. The implication of net zero emissions is that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere would slowly decline over time until a new equilibrium is reached, as CO2 emissions from human activity are redistributed and taken up by the oceans and the land biosphere. This would lead to a near-constant global temperature over many centuries.

Warming will not be limited to 1.5°C or 2°C unless transformations in a number of areas achieve the required greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Emissions would need to decline rapidly across all of society’s main sectors, including buildings, industry, transport, energy, and agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). Actions that can reduce emissions include, for example, phasing out coal in the energy sector, increasing the amount of energy produced from renewable sources, electrifying transport, and reducing the ‘carbon footprint’ of the food we consume.

The above are examples of ‘supply-side’ actions. Broadly speaking, these are actions that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the use of low-carbon solutions. A different type of action can reduce how much energy human society uses, while still ensuring increasing levels of development and well-being. Known as ‘demand-side’ actions, this category includes improving energy efficiency in buildings and reducing consumption of energyand greenhouse-gas intensive products through

behavioural and lifestyle changes, for example. Demand - and supply-side measures are not an either-or question, they work in parallel with each other. But emphasis can be given to one or the other.

Making changes in one sector can have consequences for another, as they are not independent of each other. In other words, the choices that we make now as a society in one sector can either restrict or expand our options later on. For example, a high demand for energy could mean we would need to deploy almost all known options to reduce emissions in order to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, with the potential for adverse side-effects. In particular, a pathway with high energy demand would increase our reliance on practices and technologies that remove CO2 from the atmosphere. As of yet, such techniques have not been proven to work on a large scale and, depending on how they are implemented, could compete for land and water. By leading to lower overall energy demand, effective demand-side measures could allow for greater flexibility in how we structure our energy system. However, demand-side measures are not easy to implement and barriers have prevented the most efficient practices being used in the past.

Coordinating Editors: Sarah Connors (France/UK), Roz Pidcock (France/UK) Drafting Authors: Myles Allen (UK), Heleen de Coninck (Netherlands), Francois Engelbrecht (South Africa), Marion Ferrat (UK/France), James Ford (UK/Canada), Sabine Fuss (Germany), Nigel Hawtin (UK), Ove Hoegh Guldberg (Australia), Daniela Jacob (Germany), Debora Ley (Guatemala/Mexico), Diana Liverman (USA), Valérie Masson-Delmotte (France), Richard Millar (UK), Peter Newman (Australia), Antony Payne (UK), Rosa Perez (Philippines), Joeri Rogelj (Austria/Belgium), Sonia I. Seneviratne (Switzerland), Chandni Singh (India), Michael Taylor (Jamaica), Petra Tschakert (Australia/Austria)

Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from July 2019 through June 2020 include: Canada, Brazil, French Guiana, Chile, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, Egypt, Libya, United Arab Emirates, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: United States, Uruguay, Tanzania, Ireland, United Kingdom, India, Bangladesh, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 7th October 2019.

https://lnkd.in/etim4gp#flood #drought #climate #adaptation #ENSO #ElNino #LaNina #Canada #Brazil #FrenchGuiana #Chile #Finland #Estonia #Latvia #Ukraine #Egypt #Libya #UnitedArabEmirates #UAE #Australia #USA #Uruguay #Tanzania #Ireland #UnitedKingdom #UK #India #Bangladesh #China

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The report underlines that agriculture, forestry and other types of land use account for 23% of greenhouse gas emissions caused directly or indirectly by human activities. It also notes that natural and managed land systems absorb carbon dioxide equivalent to almost a third of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry.

Monitoring concentrations of the main greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is a core element of WMO’s work.

Its Global Atmosphere Watch programme provides data that helps to protect human health, agricultural productivity and food security. The programme’s observations on the increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases are incorporated into the annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin which, like IPCC reports, informs decision makers at UN climate change negotiations.

WMO is now pioneering an Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System – known for short as IG3IS – to provide a bridge between science and policy on greenhouse gas emission, and the identification and quantification of "sinks" that absorb such gases.

“Understanding the Earth system and the complex interactions between and within the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, biosphere, and human activities, across space and time scales is the core of WMO’s mission,” said Mr Taalas.

“Combined atmosphere, ocean, land and cryosphere predictive models are critical to the improved accuracy of forecasts and to enhance the full

he first-ever comprehensive scientific assessment of the links between land and climate change is a critical contribution to efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, tackle the impacts of global warming and protect food security, the World

Meteorological Organization said today.

The release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Climate Change and Land is the culmination of a two-year analysis by more than a hundred of scientists from around the globe who provided their expertise as authors and reviewers.

“The Special Report on Climate Change and Land is a highly important contribution to addressing the interplay between climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

The IPCC, whose parent organizations are WMO and UN Environment, pools the best in international scientific expertise. Its authors, who work for IPCC on a volunteer basis, assess a wide range of published scientific literature on climate system, climate risks, the costs of inaction and potential solutions.

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and also reduces the soil’s ability to absorb carbon. This exacerbates climate change, while climate change in turn exacerbates land degradation in many different ways.

Roughly 500 million people live in areas that experience desertification. Drylands and areas that experience desertification are also more vulnerable to climate change and extreme events including drought, heatwaves, and dust storms, with an increasing global population providing further pressure.

Helping countries prepare for the growing risk of such natural hazards and cope with their impacts is a critical part of WMO's work, through programmes including the Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, the Integrated Drought Management Programme, and a range of other climate services tackling challenges for agriculture, water and health.

“In the wake of the IPCC’s special report on global warming of 1.5 degrees, at WMO we have been stepping up our work to help to fill knowledge gaps, to build the continuum of science that is needed, and to provide the advice required,” said Mr Taalas.

Annual WMO assessments on climate-related topics, which include the flagship Statement on the State of the Climate, all feed into the IPCC’s work. In June, the 18th World Meteorological Congress adopted a number of important decisions on increasing the support of WMO to IPCC assessments. It also paved the way for greater coordination between the IPCC processes and those of the World Climate Research Programme, which WMO co-sponsors with IOC-UNESCO and the International Science Council.

spectrum of services to support the protection of life, health, security of food production and water resources. “

The Special Report on Climate Change and Land was released to the public a day after it was approved on 7 August by the IPCC's member governments. It highlights the fact that that land is already undergoing human pressure and that climate change is adding to these pressures, meaning that better land management is essential.

In 2015, governments backed the Paris Agreement goal of strengthening the international response to climate change by holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2ºC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5ºC.

The IPCC report says that keeping global warming under 2ºC – if not 1.5ºC, as set out in its special report issued last October, which WMO called a "wake-up call" – can be achieved only by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors, including land and food.

Land must remain productive to maintain food security as the population increases and the negative impacts of climate change on vegetation increase. This means there are limits to the contribution of land to addressing climate change, for instance through the cultivation of energy crops and afforestation. It also takes time for trees and soils to store carbon effectively. Bioenergy needs to be carefully managed to avoid risks to food security, biodiversity and land degradation.

When land is degraded – for example through desertification, or because heavy rain causes soil erosion – it becomes less productive. That in turn restricts what can be grown, putting food security at risk,

For further information contact: Clare Nullis, Media Officer. Email: [email protected] Cell: + 41 79 709 13 97

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Rosanna Beharry, Bsc Physics

argets were set by heads of Governments at the Paris Climate Conference (COP 21) in 2015 to limit earth’s warming under 2 degrees Celsius as concerns grew about the state of our future. It was later discovered that a 2-degree Celsius limit

would still produce catastrophic damage, and therefore a greater effort should be made for a limit of 1.5 degree Celsius. Presently, these targets are not on the way to being achieved as an IPCC report in 2018 stated that keeping earth’s warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would require “unprecedented changes from all aspects of society”.

The effects and threats of climate change are rapidly increasing and as the years go by, climate disasters are becoming more prevalent. The climate is now at the point where it is unpredictable and the real question now is, “What will happen to the youths?”

Adaptability Globally, temperatures are soaring causing people’s health to deteriorate as well as severely impacting food and water security. The current climate situation is creating a very bleak and challenging future for the youths. In June 2019, many parts of the world experienced increase warming, approximately two thirds of India experienced record-breaking heat waves as temperatures rose to 122-degrees Fahrenheit causing hundreds to die. Europe also experienced record-breaking heat waves with temperatures rising to 40 degrees Celsius or 104 degrees Fahrenheit, even Alaska was threatened with abnormally high temperatures as a heat dome passed over the area achieving a new record of 91 degrees Fahrenheit.

In addition to record breaking heat waves as the global temperature increases, this also impacts the severity and frequency of hurricanes. It was found that an increase in temperature can cause hurricanes to become wetter as the atmosphere is able to hold more water. This phenomenon now changes the

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dynamics of a hurricane which now produces extreme rainfall and is becoming a more definitive factor in a hurricane’s severity.

It is alarming that these climate disasters are now becoming what is considered the “new normal”, events that are extremely disastrous for many youths. These unexpected and severe changes to the climate are manifesting so quickly that it becomes a challenge to adapt to these changes.

According to the United Nations, an estimated 80 million jobs can be lost by the end of the century with a temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius. In addition, the world’s population is continuously increasing but the global food and water resources are continuously dwindling due to climatic changes such as severe water shortages and droughts, wide spread flooding, hail, wild fires and even crop yield. Presently, some countries are running out of water as their ground water reserves are almost dry. In 2019, parts India experienced ‘Day Zero’ where millions of people were unable to access clean water and the number of affected persons is expected to increase significantly by 2020. This will generally impact the most vulnerable in our population, mainly the youths. As a result of scarcity of water, food supplies will also become largely impacted, again, affecting the youths.

HeathWhen climate risk is taken into consideration, it is evident enough that no one is comfortable. In a study done by the Institute of Economic and Peace (IEP), it was found that the Asia-Pacific region faced the highest risk of climate disaster with almost 971 million people residing in high-risk areas. Climate disaster includes the loss of an entire family’s life earnings, loss of family members, loss of jobs and loss of homes and other valuables. Experiencing this type of loss can brutally affect a person’s mental health and well-being. In an effort to rebuild the life they once had; a person can suffer severe psychological effects. This can cause an increase in illegal activities and violence among community members due to the lack of basic necessities such as food, water, shelter and clothing. During the IEP study, in 2017 climate related disasters caused over 60% of displacements around the world but almost 40% were caused by armed conflict.

According to the United Nations, heat stress is expected to cause an increase in annual deaths by 38,000 worldwide as a result of “heat stroke and exhaustion, increase mortality, and exacerbate existing health conditions.” (United Nations, 2019) Climate change affects both the physical and mental health of people which will eventually strain the health sector and quality of health care. Climate hazards can also affect socioeconomic and political stability which will further negatively strain the health of affected people especially the youths. If a nation is not economically and politically stable the youths will suffer as the necessary programs needed for growth and development will not be available to allow these youth access to knowledge on combating climatic challenges.

Youth empowerment Youth exposure to climate disasters is inevitable, more so their exposure to such disasters are highly likely. In some cases, youths may be exposed to more than one type of climate disaster, and as a result they may suffer from limited resources thus increasing their sensitivity

and vulnerability, consequently becoming victims of negative influence and abuse. In an attempt to avoid these issues it is necessary to put systems in place to assist the youths to adapt to climatic changes. Governments need to stabilize their policies and look at investing in the future. According to a report, UNICEF UK “Forward-looking policies that invest in education, secure employment opportunities and representation in governance can avoid further marginalizing youth, and instead harness their potential to boost growth and development.”

This type of measure will not be difficult to accomplish as many youths are already stepping up and voicing their interest for the need for change and action to be taken for a better future. Recently, there have been a lot of youth movement as they recognize the need to stand up to secure the necessary change needed for the benefit of their futures. Greta Thunberg started an international student strike, a movement that have attracted enormous support from other youths throughout the world. They strategically plan continuous climate strikes so that their message is not lost or overshadowed. These youth demonstrate exemplary willpower, therefore, for governments to support and encourage that empowerment might very well save our planet.

Many youths in the Caribbean and Latin America also face climatic disasters such as droughts, famine and the aftermath of Category 5 hurricanes. The youths in this region which is extremely vulnerable to all aspects of climate change also felt the need to voice their concerns and distress. In Trinidad and Tobago, children from the Bamboo Grove Presbyterian School held a walk-a-thon with the theme “My voice matters” because they felt the need to be heard. They understand that they have to fight for a comfortable future and stand up for what they believe in.

I was honored to attend a graduation ceremony for some preschoolers (June 2019). As I watched their procession and listened each child tell the audience of what they aspired to be in the future was quite heart-warming, but my thought as I sat throughout the ceremony was, “Are we doing enough for our youths? Are we doing justice or an injustice to them?” Our actions today are necessary for the quality of life they will experience as they

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grow older. The climate and the environment is their home, it is the habitat they need to be able to survive. As our climate loses control and scientists can no longer predict the intensity of what to expect, the youths will be walking into a future blindly, with no plan or protection. It is our duty to the youths of our nations to put the right systems and policies in place to protect the future of our children. Only governments and businesses from the private sector are equipped with the necessary resources to ensure a better future for our youths but they need to step up and show support to empower the future leaders of this world- the youths!

meet

Greta Thunberg Joins Climate Action Protest Outside UNHQGreta Thunberg, 16-year-old climate activist from Sweden, joins young climate activists in a FridaysForFuture protest in front of the UN Headquarters.30 August 2019 United Nations, New York

Greta Thunberg, climate activist from Sweden, poses in front of the flags outside of the General Assembly Hall.

General Assembly President Meets Greta Thunberg and Climate Activists María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés (right), President of the seventy-third session of the General Assembly, meets with Greta Thunberg (second from left), climate activist from Sweden, and Alexandria Villaseñor (left) and Xiye Bastida, climate activists from the United States.

Greta Thunberg (right), climate activist from Sweden, and Xiye Bastida (centre) and Alexandria Villaseñor, climate activists from the United States, get a tour of the General Assembly Hall.

Greta ThunbergClimate Activists

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A view of Port-au-Prince, Haiti

Strategic Assessment Mission in Haiti

A delegation led by Jean-Pierre Lacroix, Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations and Miroslav Jenča, Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs, conducts a Strategic Assessment Mission in Haiti. The goal of the mission is to prepare the end of peacekeeping operations in the country and meet with Haitian authorities to discuss the future UN support to Haiti.

The Strategic Assessment Mission team meets with MINUJUSTH senior leadership team. At the head of the table is (at left) Helen Meagher La Lime, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the UN Mission for Justice Support in Haiti (MINUJUSTH), and Mr. Lacroix.

16 January 2019. Port-au-Prince, Haiti

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Gaining strength at record speed: Dorian underwent what’s known as rapid intensification between both Friday and Saturday and Saturday and Sunday. Rapid intensification refers to an increase in wind speeds of at least 35 mph in 24 hours. Dorian entered rare air for this metric, too. In a space of just nine hours on Sunday, its peak winds increased from about 150 mph (130 knots) to 185 mph (160 knots) — a rate of intensification never before observed for a storm this strong:

NASA astronaut Christina Koch snapped this image of Hurricane Dorian as the International Space Station during a flyover on Monday, September 2, 2019. The station orbits more than 200 miles above the Earth.Image Credit: NASA

70,000 homeless - death and massive destruction

Hurricane Dorian Seen From Aboard the Space Station

"You can feel the power of the storm when you stare into its eye from above. Stay safe everyone!"

– Astronaut Nick Hague, aboard the International Space Station (Sept. 2, 2019)

Hurricane Dorian

IN THEATLANTIC OCEAN

has smashed all sorts of

intensity records

Residents are starting the clean up process after Hurricane Dorian went through the region.

Hurricane Dorian, a category five hurricane, swept the Bahama islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama on 1 September 2019. At least 43 people died following the passage of Dorian that stalled over the Bahamas for nearly two days with winds of 200 mph, becoming one of the worst disasters in the nation’s history.

Residents are leaving their belongings out in the sun to dry after Hurricane Dorian passed through the region.

A child waits outside the distribution center in Fox Town on Little Abaco Island, after Hurricane Dorian passed through the area.

Local residents of Marsh Harbor on Abaco Island cover a roof affected by the hurricane with tarp.

A detailed view of the mass destruction in Marsh Harbor on Abaco Island.Partial view of a residence damaged by Hurricane Dorian. Low lying areas were flooded with water levels up to 2 meters.

ord on the street is that youth are the future, but do they really have a future to look forward to? June 2019 has been declared as the hottest June on record globally due in part to heat waves and high pressure systems that affected several regions. In Jamaica, a sizzling 39.1 degrees Celsius was observed and is the highest temperature ever recorded in Kingston. Prior to Paris Agreement in 2015 Small Island Developing States (SIDS) led 1.5 to stay alive campaign, but anomalies in June in some regions were 2 degrees Celsius above average.

Students outside the U.K. houses of parliament demanding to be heard.Source: Time Magazine.

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Climate change requires urgent action to move away from the Business As Usual (BAU) model, if humankind is to have any chance of avoiding the point of no return. In 2015, the then UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, stated that “we are the first generation that can end poverty. We are also the last generation that can slow global warming before it is too late.” The question is, does our leaders want to save earth or will they act quickly enough to address climate change? The world needs leadership on climate change and young people are stepping up to the challenge.

There is growing recognition worldwide of the key role that youth play in tackling climate change. Whether it is organizing a climate strike or using reusable bags, young people from around the world are taking actions - small and big - to protect their futures (Voices of Youth). Concerted effort has resulted in the development of initiatives to reduce greenhouse gases emissions; implementation adaptation and disaster risk reduction projects; public education, training and capacity-building; awareness raising and communication campaigns; and youth participation in climate change policy-development.

At the international level, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) since 2008 has been coordinating the work of 16 intergovernmental entities and many youth organizations under the United Nations Joint Framework Initiative on Children, Youth and Climate Change (JFI). The aim is to empower youth to act on climate change and enhance their climate change policy decision-making processes.

Additionally, the UNFCCC secretariat in 2009 gave constituency status to admitted youth NGOs (YOUNGO). YOUNGO is a vibrant, global network of youth activists, who contribute to shaping the intergovernmental climate change policies. YOUNGO representatives make official statements, provide technical and policy inputs to negotiations and engage with decision-makers at UN climate change conferences. The overall goal is to empower young people so that they have a voice at UNFCCC conferences, as well as to promote youth participation in climate change projects at the local and national levels.

In May 2019, the UN Environment launched alongside other partners, the Global Initiative to Advance Children’s Right to a Healthy Environment, from 2019-2021. Young people from around the world are being invited to share their views and concerns on environmental issues, which will be shared widely with decision-makers at all levels. The aim is to develop a Global Declaration on Children’s Right to a Healthy Environment to be handed over to world leaders in 2021.

Of note also is the UN Youth Climate Summit in September 2019, a platform for young leaders who are driving climate action to showcase their solutions at the United Nations, and to meaningfully engage with decision-makers on the defining issue of our time. The Summit brought together young activists, innovators, entrepreneurs, and change-makers who are committed to combating climate change at the pace and scale needed to meet the challenge.

Similar to the above, the Commonwealth Youth Climate Change Network (CYCN) was established in 2009 during the Young Commonwealth Climate Summit in London, where 150 young environmental leaders shared experiences and expertise. The CYCN aims to build the capacity of young people in their endeavours to address climate change and other environmental issues, and advocate on climate change from a youth perspective. Its members advocate within national and local governments, as well as in international agencies and global spaces such as the UNFCCC, to ensure that future generations are spared from the harshest effects of climate change.

Alicia Maria Amancio da Silva, Youth NGOs (YOUNGO). Source: IISD.

Dorlan BurrellCo-founder and Director of

Enablers of Community Advancement Projects and Initiatives (ECAPI) Limited

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and competitions to increase their awareness of the various challenges and proposed solutions. In addition, since the start of 2019, young people across the island have been engaged to provide input into Jamaica’s climate change policy, which is being revised.

Young people are key actors in raising awareness, implementing educational programmes, promoting sustainable lifestyles, conserving nature and has the power to transform our societies towards a low-carbon and climate resilient future. The likes of Greta Thunberg, the teenager and her school strike - now a global movement has inspired millions; Stefan Knights, the youth advocate who has participated on a number of regional and international committees on climate change and sustainable development matters; and Jhannel Tomlinson, her involvement in climate action both through academia and activism at the local, regional and international levels has highlighted the critical role youth play in creating a more sustainable future. Notwithstanding the above, greater funding opportunities need to be provided to youth to influence meaningful change.

World leaders ought to be inspired by young people around the world who are taking action on climate change and provide the necessary support to fuel their efforts to reverse or limit the harmful impacts of climate change. On the premise of leaving no one behind, young people across the globe will continue to demand the future they want.

In the Caribbean, the Caribbean Youth Environment (CYEN) is a non-profit, civil society, charitable body that focuses its resources on empowering young people (15-29 age group) and their communities to develop programmes/actions to address socio-economic and environmental issues. The organization aims at addressing issues such as poverty alleviation and youth employment, climatic changes and global warming, impact of natural disasters/hazards, improvement in potable water, conservation and waste management among other issues. The CYEN views youth as an important and critical resource and is dedicated to developing strategies to engage and facilitate their participation in the development process. There are eighteen (18) active Chapters at the country level which help to decentralize the work across the Caribbean region.

Country level youth programmes are also recognized as good practices. For example Jamaica, the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation in 2016 launched its Youth Environmental Advocacy Programme (YEAP) and embarked on a series of regional consultations islandwide. These consultations are intended to engage the participants’ commitment to and endorsement of the principles of environmental conservation and protection, including climate change. Jamaica also hosted Youth Climate Change Conferences through the support of multiple stakeholders, where participants were engaged in a series of climate advocacy training workshops, presentations, exhibitions

Climate activist Greta Thunberg in Hamburg. Source: The Intercept.

Even in a “best-case” scenario of limiting warming to 2°C – the cornerstone target of the Paris climate treaty – the ocean’s biomass will drop off by 5%.Climate change on track to reduce ocean wildlife by 17 percent.In a world that heats up 3 to 4 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, 17 percent of marine biomass – from minuscule plankton to 100-ton whales – will be wiped out, they reported in the US Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.

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An approach to cope climate change: From risk to resilience

Mr. Serhat SensoyEngineer

Turkish State Meteorological Service, Ankara, Turkey

Mr. Serhat SensoyEngineer

Turkish State Meteorological Service, Ankara, Turkey

limate change is one of the biggest problems facing humanity in the 21st century. Climate change leads to increases in both frequency and magnitude of severe weather and climate events including heat wave, sea level rise, heavy rainfall, storm surges, floods, and droughts (IPCC, 2013). Number of extreme event has been increasing all over the world. Ninety percent of extreme events have meteorological, hydrological and climatological character. According to Munich RE Insurance Company, compared to the 90s, the number of extreme events increased by 3

times, economic losses by 9 times and insurance losses by 15 times (URL 1).

Global warming is causing sea level to rise and glaciers and Arctic sea ice to melt. Increased sea levels and storm surges threaten coastal regions, infrastructure, and property. These and other aspects of climate change are disrupting people’s lives and damaging certain sectors of the economy. The impacts of climate change on key economic sectors, such as agriculture and water, can have profound effects on food security, posing threats to overall stability. It is also clear that higher temperatures will lead to droughts which will affect agricultural production, and that ice melt will cause flooding especially in coastal areas. Unpredictable instability has become the “new normal,” and this trend will continue for the foreseeable future. Extreme weather, climate change, environmental degradation, rising demand for food and water, poor policy decisions and inadequate infrastructure will magnify this instability.

Consequences of psychosocial impacts caused by climate change include: increase in violence, intergroup conflict, displacement and relocation and socioeconomic disparities. We’ll never solve immigration problem if we don’t solve climate change.

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Beside the adaptation and mitigation options, nowadays there is an emerging option to cope climate change: To increase resilience.

How to increase climate resilience?Resilience can be achieved by reducing the risk. Risk = Likelihood x Severity. As can be understood from this formula, risk is a numerical value. Our goal is to reduce risk rating to negligible numbers. This can be possible by reducing severity of extreme events.

This approach can be applicable in various disaster risk reduction sectors including water, health, agriculture, energy and occupational health and safety. We cannot reduce the likelihood of meteorological extremes. But we can reduce its effect and severity by strengthening the infrastructure, early warning systems, increasing adaptation capacity, decreasing vulnerability, training and raise awareness.

On the other hand sector specific approach is needed to cope climate change. Climate data has a crucial role for planning and mitigation activities in priority sectors such as water, health, agriculture, energy and disaster risk reduction.

There is ClimPACT software that produce sector specific indices for climate risk management. The software runs under the open source R Statistics Package and calculates the frequency, duration and magnitude of a wide range of indices directly related to sectors by reading the daily data. The software is available at https://github.com/ARCCSS-extremes/climpact2 (Alexander et al., 2013). Since monthly or average data filters extremes, daily data are used in index production (Zhang et al., 2005). This software generates 71 indices using daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation data. Of these indices, 27 are for Health, 18 are for WaterResources and Hydrology, 39 are for Agriculture and Food Security sectors. Result can be used climate risk management and sector specific adaptation and mitigation studies. Determining of the trends of the climate indices are expected to provide important information to decision makers and practitioners in the priority sectors.

In conclusion, climate change is predicted to strain economies and societies around the world, placing an additional burden on already-vulnerable nations especially located in the Mediterranean,

Referances

Alexander, L., Yang, H., Perkins, S., 2015, ClimPACT Indices and software, A document prepared on behalf of The Commission for Climatology (CCl) Expert Team on Climate Risk and Sector-Specific Climate Indices (ET CRSCI)

IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.

Zhang, X., et al., 2005, Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D22104, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006181.

URL 1, Munich RE https://www.munichre.com , 30 June 2019

Australia, Caribbean, South Africa and Asia. Increasing population, increasing urbanization, increasing energy demand, decreasing water resources, decreasing food security will put pressure on human well-being. Beside the adaptation and mitigation options, nowadays there is a new approach to cope climate change: From risk to resilience. This requires some risk reduction technics and also some tools like CLIMPACT software which can be used in climate risk management and sector specific adaptation and mitigation studies. It’s expected to provide important information to decision makers.

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he overwhelming majority of climate scientists emphasize that the severe weather catastrophes (droughts, extremes precipitations, high levels of temperatures,) are signs of an acceleration of climate change (IPPC 2007, 2013). Climate

change refers to changes in these statistics (temperature, rainfall, drought etc.) over seasons and year to year changes as well as decades over centuries.

Algeria is a semi-arid country located in north Africa have experienced a period of very severe droughts with annual average temperature increases ranging from 0.65 to 1.45 °C between 1970 and 2004. An average temperature, comparable to the global average, increase observed over the period 1906-2005 (Bessaoud, 2008). The study of precipitation received in northern Algeria

(1951 to 1980 and 1961 to 1990), reveal that a succession of episodes of excessive and deficient precipitation compared to normal shows great variability (Noureddine, 2011).

Any scientific research needs reliable data in detail as much as possible, and therefore, daily temperature and precipitation dataare considered from the National Agency for Hydraulic Resources (ANRH) as well as from Tutiempo.net website since 1982 until 2017. Linear regression techniques are employed for filling the included gaps in this time series. Monthly time series are obtained by using daily data.

The region North-East of Algeria (Figure 1) represents all the territory from the small Kabyle to the Tunisian border occupying an

Besma Boudiaf (PhD student in Hydraulics), Annaba university, Algeria,

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area of 31,555 km² and more than 5 million inhabitants. An extreme event is defined as the occurrence of a value of a weather variable above (or below) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) ends of the observed range of its observed values in a specific region. The time series for each station with the trend component and corresponding inverse CDF curves for exceedance probability calculations reversal, calculation of precipitation and temperature amount for any given probability level are applied and gave us the following results

s� 4He study indicates that the climate change impact is expected to be more influential in all the stations except Constantine concerning the risk of extreme precipitations, but for extreme temperatures Tebessa station seems to have more frailty in getting warmer under climate change effect.

s�$ETECTED�Positive trends in temperature and precipitation appear in most of stations with varying degrees. For example, Constantine and Tebessa present significantly increasing trend for temperature with a slope of (0.05) while Bejaia and Setif were less significant with a slope of (0.03), and conversely, Annaba and Bordj Bouarriridj show a decreasing, but not significant trend. However, for precipitations all the stations indicate positive, but not significant trends except Constantine station tends to decrease with low level of significance. CDF curves reveal that the five stations (Annaba, Bejaia, Borj Bouarriridj, Constantine, Tebessa), more than 70% of days are hotter and wetter than the average, only Setif station have equally likely temperatures and precipitations above and below the average. To conclude, this study confirms that climate change had, and it will have an impact on temperature and precipitations regime behaviors and that is why it should be included in the calculations of all infrastructure constructions.

Another study was done about the same area using the innovative trend methodology developed by (Sen 2014) reveals that Thenumber of times that an amount of received precipitation under the 400 mm per year tend to increase slowly, while the number of times where the amount was between 400 mm and 600 mm per year still same means no trend, however the times that the station receive a high amount that exceeds 600 mm per year differ from station to another, Annaba, Constantine

and Bordj Bouarriridj stations tend to decrease, in contrast Tebessa, Bejaia and Setif tend to increase. Low levels (<17.5 C° for Annaba and Bejaia, <16 C° for Tebessa and Bordj Bouarriridj, <14.5 C° for Constantine and Setif) of annual average temperature are very frequented in all stations presenting an increasing trend with high significance, medium degrees (17.5 C°< C°< 18 C°) for Annaba and Bejaia, (16 C° <C°< 17C°) for Tebessa and Bordj Bouarriridj, (14.5 C°< C°< 15.5 C°)for Constantine and Setif are also increasing but slowly, however the occurrence of very high degrees differ from a station to another, Setif station remain same with no change, Constantine and Bejaia tend to increase but not significantly, while Annaba and Tebessa presenting a modest decreasing, in contrast Bordj Bouarriridj station show an important increasing in the highest temperature levels.

This study emphasize that there is a change in the climate in the North-East region of Algeria, there is generally a decreasing in the amounts of received precipitation which mean a drier climate, but Bejaia, Setif and Tebessa are more likely to have extreme heavy precipitation then other stations, however the temperature, having a cool level of annual average temperature is more common, just Borj Boarriridj station had extreme heat during the last 3 decades.

To conclude, this study confirms that climate change had, and it will have an impact on temperature and precipitations regime behaviors and that is why it should be included in the calculations of all infrastructure constructions.

A forecast study is necessary to help government take into consideration future adversities and try to mitigate for the next decades.

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Nicholas B RobsonMA (Brad) CSCM

Nicholas B RobsonMA (Brad) CSCM

aia, the Primordial Goddess and personification of the Earth, so named by scientist James Lovelock, the proponent of the Gaia Principle, who proposed that living organisms interact with their inorganic surroundings on Earth to form a synergistic and

self-regulating, complex system that helps to maintain and perpetuate the conditions for life and the environment on the planet.

I remember well when, in 1989, I was given a Podcast (on cassette tape) on the Gaia Principle, recorded by Dr. Reginald Gold, an UK polymath, and was hooked by the premise, which, in hindsight, was so logical.

The Gaia Principle, which was formulated by Lovelock in the 1970’s whilst he was working with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, saw with his mind’s eye this planet as something possibly unique in the universe, as something alive. Thinking along these lines he thought the word Earth as inadequate to describe the living planet that we inhabit and are a part of.

As the National Geographic stated recently ‘The epic 3,000-mile monarch butterfly migration may become a thing of the past’. The monarchs travel each year from their summer homes in the northern U.S. and Canada to winter homes in Mexico and southern california.

Recent counts show migrating numbers falling by more than eighty percent. Climate change and habitat loss are the main culprits, all human caused.

Other topics related to this principle include how the ecosystem and the extinction of organisms affect the stability of global temperature, salinity of seawater, atmospheric oxygen levels and environmental imbalance. The principle argues that the Gaia system as a whole, seeks an optimal physical and chemical environment for life.

Recently I received an article from a colleague that informs that one-third of fish caught in the North Atlantic are contaminated with micro-plastic. He goes on to say It is even found in benthic animals living thousands of meters below the sea surface. Furthermore, eighty-three percent of drinking water samples from around the world are contaminated with plastic fibers. While not all of it, quite a lot of this contamination of fresh and saltwater comes when synthetic fiber-based clothing is worn and washed.

Recently in Rio tons of dead fish washed up an the beach and the experts are suggesting that rising water temperatures are responsible.

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The Club of Rome recently issued this warning: “The prevailing mantra that all economic growth is good defies the reality of life on a finite planet with finite resources. There is an urgent need for new economic thinking and new indicators that value quality as well as quantity in our economic metrics.”

When one looks across our world at the myriad negative issues that are occurring, things like desertification, degraded soils, water security, food security, ocean acidification and rapidly rising CO2 levels it is understandable that business-as-usual capitalism is responsible.

New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, [has recently stated] that the purpose of government spending is to ensure citizens’ health and life satisfaction, and that — not wealth or economic growth — is the metric by which a country’s progress should be measured.

We usually think of a country’s wealth or capital in terms of its financial bottom line: its gross domestic product. But New Zealand challenged the world to assess it in terms of a very different commodity, as the country released the first-ever “well-being budget” on May 30 .

New Zealand wan not the first country to make such a move, as in the 1970’s the king of Bhutan, Jigme Singye Wangchuck, a Buddhist country immediately north of India, decided that Gross National Happiness was a much better indicator. A Kasho (royal decree) issued by King Jigme Singye in 1986 directed the Planning Commission to ensure that "the basis for the evaluation of the achievements of the Sixth Plan is to see whether the people enjoy happiness and comfort.

The United States has spent more subsidizing fossil fuels in recent years than it has on defense spending, according to a new report from the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF found that direct and indirect subsidies for coal, oil and gas in the U.S. reached $649 billion in 2015. Pentagon spending that same year was $599 billion.

At the opening of the IMF’s spring meetings in April, Managing Director Christine Lagarde laid out the benefits she sees in properly pricing fossil fuels. “The numbers are quite staggering” she said, referring to the savings that could be achieved “fiscally, but also in terms of human life, if

there had been the right price on carbon emission as of 2015.” Lagarde continued to rattle off the benefits to humanity of realizing these savings. “There would be more public spending available to build hospitals, to build roads, to build schools and to support education and health for the people,” she said.

For Lagarde and the IMF, the conclusion was obvious: “We believe that removing fossil fuel subsidies is the right way to go.”

You are no doubt wondering where this article is going, what is its premise, what message does it have for young people? Young people who, in a few short years will be guiding this planet as leaders… I have spoken on the Gaia Theory, the monarchs butterflies, food insecurity and micro-plastics in the environment and capitalism’s business-as-usual, which includes subsidies given to the fossil fuel industry to the detriment of humanity.

Mankind has probably done more damage to the Earth in the 20th century than in all of previous human history. The real cure for our environmental problems is to understand that our job is to salvage Mother Nature. – Jacques Yves Cousteau

In brief, a healthy environment and ecosystem are dependent on the health of all species living therein. Organisms co-evolve with their environment and understandably are negatively affected by mono-culture agriculture, deforestation, and excessive use of chemical insecticides and fertilizers.

The final part of the equation for bringing our planet back into balance is sequestering carbon underground and drawing it out of the atmosphere. There is a wonderful book, co-authored by colleague Albert Bates which has a non-intuitive title, Burn: Using Fire to Cool The Earth. I quote from the Albert’s book; Kevin Anderson, deputy director of the UK-based Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, delivered the bad news. He reminded the audience that emissions had been steadily rising since 1990. That’s twenty-seven years of abject failure for multilateral UN negotiations.

“For anyone interested in solutions to climate change, this book is absolutely essential reading. It represents the latest, most innovative thinking and experimentation on removing carbon from the atmosphere. What’s delightfully startling is the authors’

5 Mega-Watt Solar Farm in Bodden Town, Cayman Islands. Cayman Technology Centre PV array covers the parking areas as well as the roofs of the building.

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detailed, example-laden argument that we can use carbon to regenerate landscapes while also producing an astounding array of products�from concrete to plastics to batteries to paper�that function better by incorporating the universe’s most versatile element. Written in a clear, entertaining style, Burn is an incendiary contribution.”�– Richard Heinberg, senior fellow, Post Carbon Institute.

Burn goes on to list the failures in the White House, [In 1964], following [John] Kennedy’s assassination, Revelle authored a report with Wallace Broecker, Charles Keeling, Harmon Craig, and Joseph Smagorinsky that managed to reach [President] Lyndon Johnson. In a televised address, President Johnson told the nation, “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through … a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.” Presidents Nixon and Ford ignored the report, President Carter, being an educated and retired naval officer read them. He asked questions. He, too, spoke to the nation, trying to explain the inexorable consequences of the exponential function and devotion to growth as antithetical to survival. Carter commissioned more scientific studies. Unfortunately Carter’s science reports then fell upon the desk of a new president, Ronald Reagan, who disproved the notion that no one could care less than Nixon.

Vice President Al Gore’s plan to place a tax on carbon was defeated by Congress after the Global Climate Coalition, an astroturf front for the American Petroleum Institute, invested $1.8 million in a disinformation campaign. The landmark international treaty Gore negotiated in Kyoto was never forwarded to the Senate for ratification.

The voice. At first, it was the voice that took hold of them. Slightly off, coming out of a little girl’s body. A metallic voice, sharp as a blade, trembling not because of stress or shyness, oh no—trembling with rage, a cold rage set to overtake them. And then the words themselves.

“You are not mature enough to tell it like it is. Even that burden, you leave to us, children. … Our civilization is being sacrificed for the opportunity of a very small number of people to continue making enormous amounts of money.” – Greta Thunberg

We are faced by a Planetary Emergency. This consists of the Climate Crisis, driven as it is by burning fossil fuel, i.e. oil and gas, as well the Ecosystem Crisis, driven by the destruction of the ecosystem, by palm oil plantations in Indonesia, oil extraction in the Amazon and timber harvesting, to name only a few. All of these crises, unless we find methods to mitigate and adapt to them, will destroy civilization, and society as we know it. Realize that we have no Planet B, no new home-world to which we can emigrate. Population-Wise we are approaching eight billion human inhabitants, today it is 7,706,418,883, with 55,764,070 more births this year (2019), and is completely unsustainable.

I therefore say to Greta Thunberg and her contemporaries that if the planet is going to be saved it is up to you to do so.

It is up to you to struggle for alternative energy to very quickly replace fossil fuel, to push for a massive campaign of planting indigenous trees, and the use of bio-char, as described by Bates and Draper, to bury carbon in the form of what the European settlers in Brazil’s Amazonia region called Terra Preta de Indio, which enhances soil productivity and sequesters carbon.

In Academia [Dr Kevin] Anderson showed why many people in the climate policy world consider him to be rash. He challenged his own base. “Universities and NGOs have been corrupted by near-term power—we want to be at meetings in Davos, we want to be with the great and the good in our society, we fear questioning the dominant social paradigm—much more important than physics apparently—and we have a naive focus on particular pet technologies, whether it is nuclear, wind, or solar—it’s always a supply technology”.

To put a vulgar point on all of this—the truth is getting more vulgar by the minute—the combined wealth of the world's billionaires in 2004 (587 "individuals and family units"), according to Forbes magazine, is 1.9 trillion dollars. This is more than the gross domestic product of the world's 135 poorest countries combined. The good news is that there are 111 more billionaires this year than there were in 2003. Isn't that fun? The thing to understand is that modern democracy is safely premised on an almost religious acceptance of the nation state .

In 2011 the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) didn’t see the problem coming at them in the form of cheap and better underwater sonar, GPS, and far more aggressive offshore fishing fleets. That year they said that 71% of the commercially important fish types were being caught sustainably. Only 29% were being overfished and in need of greater regulation. Today, only 8 years later, 90% of the world’s marine fish stocks are now fully exploited, overexploited or depleted. According to the World Economic Forum: Fish accounts for 17% of all animal protein consumed in the world, and 26% of that consumed in the poorest and least developed countries.

SmartFlower, a sun-tracking, self-stowing photo-voltaic array due to be installed in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands shortly by GreenTech Solar Ltd.

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he Arctic Ocean's blanket of sea ice has changed since 1958 from predominantly older, thicker ice to mostly younger, thinner ice, according to new research published by NASA scientist Ron Kwok of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California. With so

little thick, old ice left, the rate of decrease in ice thickness has slowed. New ice grows faster but is more vulnerable to weather and wind, so ice thickness is now more variable, rather than dominated by the effect of global warming.

Working from a combination of satellite records and declassified submarine sonar data, NASA scientists have constructed a 60-year record of Arctic sea ice thickness. Right now, Arctic sea ice is the youngest and thinnest its been since we started keeping records. More than 70 percent of Arctic sea ice is now seasonal, which means it grows in the winter and melts in the summer, but doesn't last from year to year. This seasonal ice melts faster and breaks up easier, making it much more susceptible to wind and atmospheric conditions.

Working from a combination of satellite records and declassified

T

With thick ice gone, Arctic sea ice

changes more slowlyBy Carol Rasmussen,

NASA's Earth Science News Team

submarine sonar data, NASA scientists have constructed a 60-year record of Arctic sea ice thickness. Right now, Arctic sea ice is the youngest and thinnest its been since we started keeping records. More than 70 percent of Arctic sea ice is now seasonal, which means it grows in the winter and melts in the summer, but doesn't last from year to year. This seasonal ice melts faster and breaks up easier, making it much more susceptible to wind and atmospheric conditions.

Kwok's research, published today in the journal Environmental Research Letters, combined decades of declassified U.S. Navy submarine measurements with more recent data from four satellites to create the 60-year record of changes in Arctic sea ice thickness. He found that since 1958, Arctic ice cover has lost about two-thirds of its thickness, as averaged across the Arctic at the end of summer. Older ice has shrunk in area by almost 800,000 square miles (more than 2 million square kilometers). Today, 70 percent of the ice cover consists of ice that forms and melts within a single year, which scientists call seasonal ice.

29

Sea ice of any age is frozen ocean water. However, as sea ice survives through several melt seasons, its characteristics change. Multiyear ice is thicker, stronger and rougher than seasonal ice. It is much less salty than seasonal ice; Arctic explorers used it as drinking water. Satellite sensors observe enough of these differences that scientists can use spaceborne data to distinguish between the two types of ice.

Thinner, weaker seasonal ice is innately more vulnerable to weather than thick, multiyear ice. It can be pushed around more easily by wind, as happened in the summer of 2013. During that time, prevailing winds piled up the ice cover against coastlines, which made the ice cover thicker for months.

The ice's vulnerability may also be demonstrated by the increased variation in Arctic sea ice thickness and extent from year to year over the last decade. In the past, sea ice rarely melted in the Arctic Ocean. Each year, some multiyear ice flowed out of the ocean into the East Greenland Sea and melted there, and some ice grew thick enough to survive the melt season and become multiyear ice. As air temperatures in the polar regions have warmed in recent decades, however, large amounts of multiyear ice now melt within the Arctic Ocean itself. Far less seasonal ice now thickens enough over the winter to survive the summer. As a resultnot only is there less ice overall, but the proportions of multiyear ice toseasonal ice have also changed in favor of the young ice.

Seasonal ice now grows to a depth of about six feet (two meters) in winter, and most of it melts in summer. That basic pattern is likely to continue, Kwok said. "The thickness and coverage in the Arctic are now dominated by the growth, melting and deformation of seasonal ice."

The increase in seasonal ice also means record-breaking changes in ice cover such as those of the 1990s and 2000s are likely to be less common, Kwok noted. In fact, there has not been a new record sea ice minimum since 2012, despite years of warm weather in the Arctic. "We've lost so much of the thick ice that changes in thickness are going to be slower due to the different behavior of this ice type," Kwok said.

Kwok used data from U.S. Navy submarine sonars from 1958 to 2000; satellite altimeters on NASA's ICESat and the European CryoSat-2, which span from 2003 to 2018; and scatterometer measurements from NASA's QuikSCAT and the European ASCAT from 1999 to 2017.

News media contactEsprit Smith Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, [email protected]

2018 was the fourth hottest year in the modern record, part of a decades-long trend of warming. The record dates back to 1880, when it became possible to collect consistent, reliable temperatures around the planet. NASA and NOAA work together to track the temperatures, part of ongoing research into our warming planet.

30

17 SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT

The global response to realizing poverty and environmental goals agreed by world leaders in 2015 has not been “ambitious enough” according to the UN Secretary-General.

GOALS

Climate changeDescribed by Mr Guterres last year as an “existential threat” to humanity, the outlook for meeting targets to reduce climate change is grim. With rising greenhouse gas emissions, climate change is occurring at rates much faster than anticipated and “its effects are clearly felt world-wide.”

The target, and remember this was agreed by world leaders, is to keep the rate of global warming to below 2°C and, if possible to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The average global temperature is already 1°C above pre-industrial levels but if not enough is done then warming will continue at an unsustainable pace and could well exceed 3°C by the end of the century.

While there are positive steps in terms of individual countries developing climate plans and the increase in the amount of money being found to finance those activities, Mr Guterres said that “far more ambitious plans and accelerated action is needed” on climate mitigation and adaptation.

In his latest report on the progress towards meeting the targets of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals or SDGs, the UN chief António Guterres said that while a “wealth of action” had been taken by governments across the world “the most vulnerable people and countries continue to suffer the most.”

The 17 SDGs commit countries to mobilize efforts to end all forms of poverty, fight inequalities and tackle climate change. Read more here about the goals.

The report tracks progress across 17 goals in the UN’s 193 Member States and largely takes a global view, however while many trends regarding the SDGs are common to all regions, there are significant regional differences. Here are six things you need to know about progress towards some of the key SDGs.

Launching the report at UN Headquarters on Tuesday, at the start of the UN High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF), the UN Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) chief, Liu Zhenmin, said that the clock for taking decisive action on climate change is ticking. He stressed the importance of strengthening international cooperation and multilateral action.

“The challenges highlighted in this report are global problems that require global solutions,” said Mr. Liu. “Just as problems are interrelated, the solutions to poverty, inequality, climate change and other global challenges are also interlinked.”

31

PovertyExtreme poverty, which the UN defines as a condition characterized by severe deprivation of basic human needs, continues to decline but the decline has slowed to the extent that the world is not on track to achieve the target of less than three per cent of the world living in extreme poverty, by 2030. It’s more likely on current estimates to be around six per cent; that’s around 420 million people, a situation of “grave concern” according to the UN chief.

Violent conflicts and disasters have played a role here. In the Arab region, extreme poverty had previously been below three per cent. However, the conflicts in Syria and Yemen have raised the region’s poverty rate and left more people hungry and homeless.

Historically speaking, there are reasons for optimism. The share of the world population living in extreme poverty was 10 per cent in 2015, down from 16 per cent in 2010 and 36 per cent in 1990.

Hunger Hunger is on the rise again globally, with an estimated 821 million people undernourished in 2017, up from 784 million in 2015. So, one in nine people across the world are not getting enough to eat.

Africa remains the continent with the highest prevalence of undernourishment, affecting one fifth of its population, that’s more than 256 million people. Public investment in agriculture is declining globally, a situation that needs to be reversed according to the Secretary-General. “Small-scale food producers and family farmers require much greater support and increased investment in infrastructure and technology for sustainable agriculture, is urgently needed.”

The developing world is most acutely affected by this lack of investment. The share of small-scale food producers in countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America ranges from 40 per cent to 85 per cent, compared to less than 10 per cent in Europe.

Health Major progress has been made in improving the health of millions of people, increasing life expectancy, reducing maternal and child mortality, and the fight against the most dangerous communicable diseases. Despite those improvements, an estimated 303,000 women around the world died due to complications of pregnancy and childbirth in 2015, the majority in sub-Saharan Africa.

Progress has stalled or is not happening fast enough in addressing major diseases, such as malaria and tuberculosis, while at least half of the global population, that’s some 3.5 billion people, do not have access to essential health services.

Mr Guterres said that “concerted efforts are required to achieve universal health coverage, sustainable financing for health and to address the growing burden of non-communicable diseases including mental health.”

Jobs and employment Experts agrees that economic growth which includes all sections of society and which is sustainable, can drive progress and generate the means to implement the SDGs. Globally, labour productivity has increased and unemployment is back to levels seen before the financial crash of 2008, however, the global economy is growing at a slower rate. And young people are three times more likely to be unemployed than adults.

Mr Guterres said that “more progress is needed to increase employment opportunities, particularly for young people, reduce informal employment and the gender pay gap, and promote safe and secure working environments to create decent work for all.”

Gender Equality Gender violence persists. Globally, about a fifth of women aged 15 to 49, experienced physical or sexual partner-inflicted violence in the last 12 months. The prevalence is highest in the 47 poorest countries in the world, a group the UN calls the Least Developed Countries or LDCs.

While some indicators of gender equality are progressing, such as a significant decline in the prevalence of female genital mutilation and early marriage, the overall numbers continue to be high. Moreover, insufficient progress on structural issues at the root of gender inequality, such as legal discrimination, unfair social norms and attitudes, decision making on sexual and reproductive issues and low levels of political participation, are undermining efforts to achieve targets.

The UN Secretary-General has said “there is simply no way that we can achieve the 17 SDGs without achieving gender equality and empowering women and girls.”

32

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