You walk into a room and find Karen and Joe dead. The only evidence at the scene is some broken glass and a puddle of water. How did Karen and Joe die?

You walk into a room and find Karen and Joe dead. The only evidence at the scene is some broken glass and a puddle of water. How did Karen and Joe die?

Part I – Why LS 1?

Mary Wollstonecraft, A Vindication of the Rights of Women

Dr. Ann Harper Fender

“This course was not awful like I was warned.”

2003 LS 1 Student

“LS 1 was my favorite course.”

“I had both a fun and enlightening time in LS 1.”

“LS 1 made me much more aware of the world around me and helped me engage in critical thinking.”

2003 LS 1 Students

“[My writings] have virtues that cannot be disentangled from the faults ... there is a way of being wrong which is also sometimes necessarily right.”

Edward Abbey, 1967

THINK!

Also think about HOW you think

THINK!

The Importance of Fundamentals

?

Part II - Ways of Knowing (Fixing Belief)

Induction – an argument from a random sample to a population

Deduction – an argument from a population to a random sample

Ah, Chocolate…

More Chocolate…

And Even More Chocolate…

Conclusion

At Mrs. London’s…

But Then Arlene Lesher Ruined It…

Charles Sanders Peirce – Fixing Belief

Charles Sanders Peirce – Fixing Belief

Beliefs (cling to) and Doubts (try to eliminate)

Beliefs Actions

“Irritation of Doubt” Inquiry

Methods of Fixing Belief:

Tenacity

Authority

a priori – “Agreeable to Reason” / Induction

Science

Science Reals and Truth (only way to settle opinion)

All investigators will eventually converge on the same truth in the infinite long run

Some Examples From My Childhood

Tenacity

Authority

a priori – Reason

Science

Peirce Thinks We Must Choose Science

Other three methods have some merits…

But Peirce thinks we should want opinions to coincide with facts; therefore we must ultimately choose science

If a person seeks to avoid the truth, s/he “is in a sorry state of mind indeed.”

Other Thoughts on Fixing Belief & Science

Charles Darwin: Painstaking observation leads to knowing

Thomas Kuhn: “Normal science” is based upon past scientific achievements and shared paradigms (common sets of assumptions); there is a universal scientific language as well as a cumulative nature to knowing

Stephen Jay Gould: Knowledge is constantly changing – “Facts” are always reassessed, reinterpreted, reconfigured, etc.

Frank Conroy: Understanding is both a conscious and unconscious process; can take years and is often triggered by seemingly unrelated events

Benjamin Whorf & Edward Sapir: Culture and language shape each other and structure the way we perceive the world; thus there isn’t a single reality

Some Questions to Think About

Are “Reals” really independent of opinion?

Can all questions be answered with science?

Part IIIProblem Analysis and Decision Making 101

The Rational Decision Making Process

Define/DiagnoseThe Problem or

Issue

Define/DiagnoseThe Problem or

Issue

Develop AlternativeSolutions

Develop AlternativeSolutions

EvaluateAlternatives

EvaluateAlternatives

Choose Best Alternative and

Implement It

Choose Best Alternative and

Implement It

Are Decision Making (Problem Analysis and Solving) Processes Completely Rational?

Mate Choice & College Choice

8:00 Classes & Alarm Clocks

Traffic Patterns & The “Energy Bill”

9/11 Response

Some recent examples:

Josh’s Mate Choice Discussion…

8:00 Classes…

?

Mohan Stuck in Traffic in Boston…

9/11…

Problem Analysis and Problem Solving Perils

Don’t have complete information

Focus on symptoms not the core problem or issue

Differences in underlying assumptions and beliefs

There isn’t a problem or issue, rather there are many interrelated problems and issues

As a Result: Decision making is not a rational process.

Too many issues, too many choices, not enough time, other resource limitations, cognitive limitations, etc. Thus, our rationality is bounded.

These limitations lead to satisficing behavior as opposed to maximizing behavior (college choice, job choice, mate choice?)

S/he who defines the problem or issue has just as much, if not more, power than s/he who solves it! (energy issue, Iraq, academic rigor)

Decision Making Problems in Groups

Group Polarization: Groups tend to make more extreme decisions; individuals in group not as accountable

Glenbrook High “Powder Puff” Hazing

Decision Making Problems in Groups

Groupthink: Team cohesiveness leads members to strive for unanimity rather than realistically appraise alternative courses of action (Space Shuttle disasters, Iraq?)

Group is highly cohesive

Group faces external threat

Group is isolated from outsiders

Self-censorship of dissenting ideas

Excessive negative stereotyping

Unquestioned morality

Decision Making Problems in Groups

Escalation of Commitment: Self-justification, gambler’s fallacy, perceptual blinders, closing costs, etc., lead people to continue down a path of failure (Relationships, Vietnam, Building the Concorde)

Garbage Can Model of Decision Making

Solutions

Issues

Feelings

Partici

pants

Problems

Luck

$$$$

It’s only rational that decision making processes are not rational!

BUT, understanding the pitfalls leads us closer to rationality

Show up on time!

Be prepared to think and debate.

Don’t be scared of the “irritation of doubt” and be open to changing your

beliefs.

Parting Shots