Yield Prophet and precision agriculture - a suitable tool for risk management and increased productivity in the Northern Agricultural Region of WA? - Craig Topham

“Yield Prophet & Precision Agriculture” “A Suitable Tool For Risk Management &

Increased Productivity In The NAR of WA?” 

`Craig Topham – Agrarian Management – Geraldton WA

1. Small machinery, Slow planting speed2. Small paddocks, often fenced to soil type3. Labour intensive , multiple pass cropping system4. Greater intensity of tillage = greater wind / water erosion5. Greater levels of fuel usage = greater emissions / ha6. Delayed sowing = lower yields 7. Lower input and Overhead costs – less capital intensive8. 90’s less seasonal variability – Expectation of Rain

Where Have We Come From Historically

90’s Thought that “No Till” would drought proof farming , low rainfall inputs increased

00’s Realization that Technology was needed to minimise impact of adverse seasonal conditions

“Adverse Seasonal Conditions Have Always Been An Expected CircumstanceRather Than An Exceptional Circumstance”

Future Direction

Ability To Allocate Capital Proportionately

According To Expected Conversion Into Revenue

Yield Prophet & Zone Management

Large Seasonal Production Volatility5 out of 13 Seasons above average

2 of 13 Average

6 of 13 well below average

Real profit made in 4 out of every 10 years

Key is to minimise losses in the 60% of

Loss making seasons

• Younger, well educated, very computer literate• Large scale, rapid sowing pace• No fences, large paddocks, increased soil variation• Large % dry sown, Increased capital at risk• Large % of Capital expended at Sowing• High degree of mechanization, reduced labour• Highly automated machinery• High level of precision ( Guidance, Placement, Zone Management, VRT)

• Greater awareness of variability = Soil, Productivity, Profitability = Water holding capacity

• Yield Prophet has increased farmer knowledge of Soil water holding capacity

The Modern NAR Farmer

Intense summer fallows and moisture conservation

Concept of bucket size becoming well understood

Farmer acceptance of modelling tools

Experiences From Last 2 Years Involvement with Yield Prophet

Limitations to Adoption

Adoption limited due to lack of understanding by Farmers Lack of exposure – limited to a few consultants – NAR WA

Exposure largely limited to DAFWA & GRDC project participants- Farmer awareness / understanding increasing rapidly after exposure- Enthusiasm directly correlates with accuracy of model

Accuracy in WA diminished by limited data base of locally characterised soil types

Soil testing strategy needs refinement to be adapted to local environmentExperienced advisor required to accurately set up modelGood understanding of sub soil constraints and effects on plant rooting depths requiredNitrogen model very useful, needs tailoring to WA conditions

Experience suggests a general lack of understanding of WA soils & conditions by modellers

Three Springs year 2 Well Characterised soil

Morawa Poor Soil Fit – Sub Soil ConstraintsYield Profit, Yield Prediction Results 2010

Accurate Rooting Depth Results In Accurate Yield Prediction

More Soil Investigation Prior To Set Up Improves In Season Yield Prediction

Accurate Soil Characterization = Very Accurate Model

Provides Ability To Measure, Manage & Predict Plant Available Water

Probabilities from Historical weather patterns very powerful tool

Increases ability to play and judge the season

Experienced operator required to achieve accuracyThorough understanding and assessment of sub soil constraints required

Accurate measurement of plant rooting depth vital

Soil type specific – need greater understanding of within field variation

Test Strips located over Yield Prophet sites

Using Yield Prophet And VRT Zone Management To Reduce Seasonal Risk

Shallow Roots due to Al Toxicity

Deep Rooting depth – No Sub soil Constraint

Acid Soils Zone 1 & 2 -Reduced Tillering -Less heads / m²-Shallow Rooting depth 30 / 40cm-Bulge of soil N built up- not accessed by roots

Moisture 30 – 40cm

Very high soil N pre sowing not accessible by plant roots

Zone 3

-Deeper rooting depth -Visual root growth to 1.2m-Soil moisture assessable to roots-Greater access to soil nitrogen

-Lower risk soil type = less yield Variability

Integration Of Yield Prophet & EM 38 Soil Mapping To Develop VRT Cropping Systems

EM 38 & Gamma Radiometrics used to develop production zones within fields.Yield Prophet sites located within each soil zoneSoil characterization of each production zone – (PAWC / Zone)Long Term Yield prediction with Yield Prophet climate change report

Up to 2 T / ha variation in long

term ave yield within field, all due to

variation in PAWC

Nola Downs 2010 VRT Research Trial Results

Blue Zone – High Input - High Clay content Sand Burnt off 38 - 50% screenings

Green Zone Standard inputs – Good sand Highest Yield - 30% Screenings

Red Zone – Low inputs – Poor Acid sand - 8.2% Screenings

Nola Downs D1 – Management Zone / Yield

Low 23.6N,7.6P,5.9K

Standard 34.7N,10.6P,10.7K

High 45.9N,13.7P,10.7K

Zone 3 High Input

Zone 2 Standard Input

Zone 3 Low Input

Nola Downs D1 Yield & Change in GM from VRTNitrogen and Phosphate Trial

Zone 1 Decreased Yield with Increased inputs

Zone 2 Yield increase with Standard inputs not significant

Zone 3 High inputs = Reduced yield (Screening 38 – 50%)

Dry Finish lowest inputs best – finishing rain would be vastly different

Zone 1 $92 increase in GM by Decreasing inputs

Zone 2 $9 increase in GM by decreasing inputs Screenings 30% more rain would respond to inputs

Zone 3 Made $15 / Ha by decreasing inputsScreenings up to 50% - Burnt off

Nola Downs D1 Wheat Yield / Soil zone

GM / Ha (Fert Only) / Soil Zone

1 2 30

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

23N; 7.6P, 5.9K

34N; 10.6P,8.3K

45N; 13.77P,10.7K

Soil zone

Whe

at y

ield

(t/h

a)

1 2 30

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

23N; 7.6P, 5.9K

34N; 10.6P,8.3K

45N; 13.77P,10.7K

Soil zone

GM

(fer

t onl

y)

Questions