Yemen: Fighting al Qaeda in a Failing State The Security and Economic Situation and Considerations for the Way Forward Presented by Frederick W. Kagan and Christopher Harnisch of the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project Slides Prepared by Christopher Harnisch and Katherine Zimmerman 1 Frederick Kagan and Chris Harnisch, January 12, 2010 Contact CTP Manager: [email protected]
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Yemen: Fighting al Qaeda in a Failing State The Security and Economic Situation and Considerations for the Way Forward Presented by Frederick W. Kagan.
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Yemen: Fighting al Qaeda in a Failing State
The Security and Economic Situation and Considerations for the Way Forward
Presented by Frederick W. Kagan and Christopher Harnisch of the American Enterprise
Institute’s Critical Threats Project
Slides Prepared by Christopher Harnisch and Katherine Zimmerman
1) The Security and Economic Situation-Al Houthi conflict, southern secessionists, resource depletion, other factors contributing to the weak economy
2) Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)-Bin Laden’s view on Yemen, location of AQAP strongholds, history, leaders, group dynamics, attacks, ideology and rhetoric
3) U.S. Strategy -Recent U.S. strategy, U.S. cooperation with and support for Yemen, Yemen’s current strategy for combating AQAP, U.S. considerations for the way forward
• Area: 203,796 square miles – roughly twice the size of Wyoming
• Climate: Mostly desert; hot and humid along west coast; temperate in western mountains affected by seasonal monsoon; extraordinarily hot, dry, harsh desert in east
• Terrain: Ranges from coastal plains to flat-topped hills and rugged mountains
• Elevation extremes: from sea level to Jabal an Nabi Shu'ayb at 12,030 ft
• Religious composition: 60% Sunni; 30-40% Zaydi Shiite (concentrated primarily in the northwest)
Frederick Kagan and Chris Harnisch, January 12, 2010 Contact CTP Manager:
• Republic of Yemen formed from the unification of the northern Yemen Arab Republic and the southern People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen on May 22, 1990– Yemen Arab Republic (1962-1990)
• Became independent imamate in 1918 upon collapse of Ottoman Empire ruled by Haashemite Imam
• North Yemen Civil War (1962-1970): Gamal abd al Nasser (Egypt) established the Yemen Arab Republic, sparking a proxy war when Saudi Arabia supported the deposed ruler, Imam al Badr
– People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (1967-1990):• Former British colony, known as the Aden Protectorate, that gained
independence in 1967 as the People’s Republic of South Yemen• 1969 Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP) came to power, changed name in
1970 to the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen• South is characterized by its Marxist roots and is the site of most oil
reserves6
Frederick Kagan and Chris Harnisch, January 12, 2010 Contact CTP Manager:
• President Ali Abdullah Saleh– President of YAR since 1978, only president of the Republic of Yemen– Last re-elected in 2006 with 77% of the vote for a term of seven years
(outside observers deemed the election relatively free and fair)– Zaydi Shi’a (but not Haashemite), member of the General People’s
Congress party• Yemen’s Political Parties:
– General People’s Congress: northern-based party from YAR, ruling political party that controls most of the parliamentary seats
– Joint Meeting Parties (JMP): six-party opposition coalition formed 11/2005, supported Faysal bin Shamlan in 2006 presidential elections
– Al Islah Party: Islamist party whose members formerly were generally members of the GPC, now member of the Joint Meeting Parties coalition
– Yemeni Socialist Party: southern-based party from the PDRY that constitutes the main opposition party in Yemen, member of the Joint Meeting Parties coalition 7
Frederick Kagan and Chris Harnisch, January 12, 2010 Contact CTP Manager:
• President Saleh launched OPERATION SCORCHED EARTH on August 11, 2009 to eradicate the al Houthi rebels– Operation believed to include anywhere from one-third to one-
half of Yemen’s total military• The current operation is the sixth round of fighting between the
rebels and the government; the current conflict began in 2004• November 4, 2009: Saudi Arabia openly began airstrikes and
ground assaults on rebel targets on the Saudi side of the border; rebels have accused Riyadh of operating on the Yemeni side of the border and killing civilians– On Dec. 26, Saudi said all rebels driven from Saudi territory,
but strikes continue• Yemen and Riyadh accuse al Houthis of receiving Iranian support• Numerous previous ceasefires and unilateral Yemeni withdraws
have failed • The conflict has generated over 175,000 IDPs
• Al Houthi family belongs to Zaydi sect of Shiite Islam and the Haashimite line (i.e. traces bloodline to the Prophet)– President Saleh is Zaydi, but not Haashimite– Haashimite Zaydis ruled northern Yemen from 893-1962– Saleh is a secularist, but fears that Haashimite claims to the Imamate
could damage his legitimacy within the Zaydi community that dominates the government and armed forces
• Al Houthis are now led by Abdul Malik al Houthi, the younger brother of the group’s founder and first leader, Husayn Badr al Din al Houthi
• Zaydis have accused Yemeni gov’t of marginalization for decades, and in the mid-90’s Zaydis founded a political and paramilitary Zaydi revivalist youth group called “Believing Youth” to counter gov’t
• Followers of the Believing Youth – led by Husayn Badr al Din al Houthi – held anti-gov’t and anti-American protests after Saleh aligned himself with U.S. following 9/11
• Gov’t responded by attempting to arrest Husayn Badr al Din al Houthi and his followers in June 2004 and killing him in Sept. 2004
• Fighting has continued on and off ever since10
Frederick Kagan and Chris Harnisch, January 12, 2010 Contact CTP Manager:
• Gov’t says that al Houthis plan to reinstate imamate (al Houthis deny this)
• Gov’t claims that al Houthis are supported by Iran and has attempted to claim an al Qaeda connection
• Al Houthis blame gov’t for economic and social neglect, corruption, aligning with U.S. and Saudi, and too much Wahhabi influence
• By Aug. 2009, al Houthis had taken control of much of Sa’ada province, blocked roads, raided and blockaded military installations, arrested soldiers, kidnapped teachers and foreigners, taken control of 63 schools, attacked mosques and gov’t buildings
• Umbrella group for southern-based secessionist movement• Leaders include southern elites and former government figures
such as Tariq al Fadhli and Ali Salim al Beidh (in exile)– Al Fadhli joined the movement in April, calling for secession– Al Beidh’s speeches are broadcast from abroad at southern
rallies• Characterized by mass anti-government demonstrations in major
southern cities such as Aden, Zinjibar, and Dhaleh• Militant factions of the movement have targeted government
personnel and buildings in the south• Yemeni gov’t has accused the Southern Movement of colluding
• Secessionist strongholds are located in the former People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY)
• The PDRY merged with the former Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) in May 1990 with Sana’a as the capital– Power-sharing agreement gave presidency to former YAR president, Ali
Abdullah Saleh, and the vice-presidency to former PDRY president, Ali Salim al Beidh
– 1993 parliamentary elections changed the power dynamics when the southern-based Yemeni Socialist Party won only 69 of 301 seats
• Civil war broke out May 4, 1994 after negotiations collapsed– July 7, 1994 marked the end of the war, when northern forces entered
the former PDRY capital, Aden, and southern leaders fled• In 2007, southern military officers demonstrated against the government,
demanding the reinstatement of their pensions– Other southerners joined in the demonstrations to voice concerns over
Grievances and Accusations of the Southern Movement
• Grievances stem from perceived marginalization by the northern-dominated government after 1990 unification and include:– Economic and political marginalization– Illegal land seizures following 1994 civil war– Forced retirements from civil and military positions– Withholding of military pensions from officers
• Gov’t has used increasingly repressive tactics against demonstrators, resulting in several deaths during rallies
• Gov’t closed down several media outlets for inciting sedition over the summer of 2009 and arrested over 500 southern elites
• Increased presence of gov’t troops, generally northerners, fuels feeling of occupation in the south by the north
• Outbreaks of violence and targeted strikes by militant elements of the Southern Movement has required an increased troop presence in South
• March and April 2008: Demonstrations turn violent (fire set to police and army targets)
• July 23, 2009: “Zinjibar Massacre” – at least 16 die when police try to break-up demonstration
• July 28, 2009: Secessionist militants ambush military convoy killing 4 soldiers, and bomb headquarters of ruling political party
• Sep. 28 – Oct. 5, 2009: Demonstration turns violent leading to days of clashes resulting in dozens of injuries, a few deaths, and arrests
• Nov. 25, 2009: 5 die when police clash with protestors • Nov. 27, 2009: Militant secessionists shout down Sana’a-Aden road• Dec. 4, 2009: 1 dies as demonstration turns violent• Dec. 21, 2009: Yemen demands extradition of former South Yemen
presidents• Dec. 29, 2009: 1 dies as demonstration turns violent • Jan. 11, 2009: Secessionists call for labor strikes in Dhale and Lahij
• No clear connection, but a potential connection exists, especially if U.S. becomes involved militarily
• Tariq al Fadhli, a recognized leader within the movement was a mujahid in Afghanistan from 1987-1989– In April 2009, al Fadhli defected from the government, which he
supported in the 1994 civil war, to call for secession– Al Fadhli has been accused of permitting al Qaeda to establish training
camps in Abyan governorate• In May 2009, al Wahayshi called for support for the south’s secession from
the north, and the establishment of an Islamic state• Overlap of strongholds could lead to coordination between Southern
Movement and al Qaeda, especially if the government continues to exact civilian casualties in its pursuit of terrorism
• Some tribes that align with the secessionists also provide shelter to al Qaeda
• Oil accounts for approximately two thirds of public revenue and about 90% of income from exports– Weak oil economy has substantially affected Yemen’s oil revenues– The World Bank predicts that oil resources will run out by 2017– Natural gas facility opened in October 2009
• Water is scarce and resources are strained by a fast-growing population and the increased growth of qat– World Bank estimates 125 cubic meters per capita available per year
(world avg. is 2,500) – Recent reports indicate that Sana’a’s wells will be dry by 2015– Illegal well-drilling, leaky and rusted pipes, contribute to water waste– Yemeni-Saudi firm began $31 million desalination plant in Hodeidah
province– Qat, considered a narcotic in the U.S. but legal in Yemen, uses about
40% of the available water in Sana’a and land is increasingly dedicated to growing the plant
• Demographics: population has tripled since 1975 – expected to reach 40M by 2030; 66% of Yemenis under age 24; less than 1/3 of population lives in urban areas
• Poverty: annual income per capita: $871; almost 50% of Yemenis earn less than $2 per day
• Unemployment: 35% (conservative estimate)• Education: national illiteracy - 46%, female illiteracy – 70%; religious
conservatives influential in school system; Saudis fund much of religious education; anti-American tone pervades in text books
• Corruption: widespread corruption, nepotism, and tribal preferences; Yemen’s audit agency estimates 30% of gov’t revenue never makes it to gov’t accounts
•AQAP officially formed in January 2009 with the merger of the Yemeni and Saudi al Qaeda franchises
•At time of merger, the Saudi al Qaeda leaders pledged allegiance to the al Qaeda in Yemen leader, Nassir al Wahayshi
•The merger was necessary from the perspective of Saudi al Qaeda leaders because the Kingdom has effectively denied al Qaeda a haven in Saudi Arabia since 2004
• Saudi had been a place of sentimental and strategic importance for AQ since before 9/11: bin Laden envisioned it as the seat of a Caliphate, and it received considerable recruits and funding from within Saudi
• In mid-2003, AQ’s leadership debated the merits of attacking targets within Saudi: preserve a safe-haven or destabilize the regime?
• Al Qaeda in Saudi launched a string of deadly attacks from May 2003-December 2004 sparking a crackdown by Saudi authorities
• Group’s most effective leader, Abdul Aziz al Muqrin killed in June 2004
• In mid-2005, a Riyadh daily declared al Qaeda in Saudi eliminated
• Last major attack attempt in Saudi: suicide bombing foiled at Abqaiq oil facility in February 2006
• Estimates of operatives range from a low of 50 to a high of several thousand
• The number of sympathizers and supporters is much higher: estimates place the number of veterans of previous “jihads” in Yemen at 20,000
– AQAP relies on tribal support for shelter; recently has adopted the strategy of marrying into tribes to earn the loyalty of tribes
• Operatives work in cells around the country
• AQAP portrays itself as the protector of the people to win popular support
• AQAP members come from multiple countries – high concentrations from Yemen, Saudi, Egypt, Pakistan and Somalia
• AQAP appears to have operational links – transferring of weapons and fighters – with al Shabaab in Somalia, and maybe al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
AQAP’s Ideology and Objectives (Historical Perspective)
• Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia sought to drive U.S. personnel out of Saudi, destabilize the Saudi regime, and set up a Caliphate
• Al Qaeda in Yemen sought to drive “Crusaders” off the Peninsula, end Yemen’s cooperation with the U.S., hurt U.S. economy because of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and set up Caliphate
• Seeks to establish an Islamic state on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP leaders appear in front of the Islamic State of Iraq flag upon founding)
• Defeat the “Crusader” occupation and invasion of ALL Islamic lands, especially in the Arabian Peninsula
• Weaken and overthrow the governments of Yemen and Saudi Arabia
• Enemies: America, Jews, polytheists, Shiites, any gov’t that cooperates with the U.S. and any Muslim that works with or protects non-Muslims on the Peninsula
• Strong emphasis put on the need to support Palestinians and liberate Jerusalem
“….Also, fighting in the Cause of Allah and the oppressed is a necessary condition to spread the principles of Islam, establish the State of Islam, and preserve the structure of the Islamic Ummah from outside encroachment….” “…. the main supporters of the occupation of Palestine are America and Europe, so we must destroy them and the Crusader interests that are spread over the Arabian Peninsula, including Yemen. They must be struck to support Palestine….” “….[Prophet Muhammad said]: ‘Expel the polytheists from the Arabian Peninsula….There cannot be two religions in the Arabian Peninsula….’” “….whoever thinks that Palestine will be liberated without breaking the siege of the traitors around it is delusional and blowing into ashes. Salahuddin…began by liberating the Levant, the Arabian Peninsula, and Egypt from the traitors and agents, and the worship of the polytheistic infidels. After he liberated the internal front, he then went directly to liberate [Jerusalem]….” “….The Crusader campaign against our people…utilizes the Arabian Peninsula as an area for their bases. The American, British, and French fleets and bases in the Arabian Peninsula are only protection for the jews….The rulers of the Arabian Peninsula are [complicit], for the ruler of Yemen....he is a true supporter. Ali Abdullah Saleh supports the Crusader campaign with all forms of logistical and military support to combat our brothers in Palestine.”
“….More than five-thousand soldiers and others were killed at the hands of the [Shi'ites] in Sa'da, not including inhabitants there!....Others say that we are infidel-branding renegades! They themselves to do not dare to speak of the truth of the [Shi’ites], and their role in destroying Islam throughout history….”
• March 16, 2009: Deputy National Security Advisor John Brennan visited to discuss counterterrorism cooperation
• July 26, 2009: General Petraeus met with President Saleh to discuss bilateral relations
• August 16, 2009: Delegation of senators, including Senators Joseph Lieberman, Susan Collins, and Lindsey Graham, led by Senator John McCain, met with President Saleh to discuss counterterrorism cooperation
• October 4, 2009: Vice Admiral William H. McRaven, Commander of U.S. Joint Special Operations Command, met with President Saleh to discuss U.S.-Yemeni cooperation against AQAP
• November 10, 2009: Representatives from the U.S. Armed Forces Joint Staff, led by Brig. Gen. Jeffrey Smith, met with Yemeni counterparts to discuss security cooperation
• January 2, 2010: General Petraeus met with President Saleh to discuss U.S.-Yemeni relations, especially regarding counterterrorism efforts
• Yemen is a recipient of Department of Defense Section 1206 funds for building partnership capacity
– Primary recipients are: Yemeni Special Operations Forces (YSOF), Yemeni Army 11th Brigade, Central Repair Base
– Funds have gone towards cross-border security and counterterrorism efforts, YSOF development, helicopters with night vision, Coast Guard patrol boats, and counter-IED training and equipment
• January 21, 2009: Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI James W. McJunkin delivered thirty biometric collection systems to Yemen as part of the counterterrorism initiative
• November 3, 2009: A delegation of Yemeni military officers from the counterterrorism unit, coast guard and army special forces observed U.S. Marine Corps training at Paris Island
• December 10: drone strike in North Waziristan, Pakistan– Shpalga, Pakistan: Saleh al Somali, head of al Qaeda’s external operations
and possibly responsible for transfer of militants to Yemen, killed• Dec.17: strikes in Arhab, Sana’a, and Abyan supported by U.S. missiles and
intelligence– Arhab district:
• Nawbah Operation: killed Hani al Shu’alan (#225) and two others, injured a fourth
• Al Tabbah Operation: Qasim al Raymi, Hizam Saleh Mujali and third escaped
• Bayt Mujali Operation: arrested Aref Mujali and seven others– Al Majalah, Abyan:
• Targeted house of Abdul Mun’em al Qahtani• Mohammed al Kazimi, among others, including foreigners, was killed
– Sana’a City: Fourteen arrested with ties to the Arhab cell• December 24: strike in Rafadh area of al Said, Shabwah
– Rafadh: About 30 al Qaeda suspects killed in strike targeting hide-out where Nasser al Wahayshi, Said al Shihri, and Anwar al Awlaki had been meeting
• Comprehensive strategy focused on enhancing security, preventing Yemen from becoming a failed state, and alleviating the conditions conducive to a terrorist safe-haven– Saleh is not an ideal partner, but he is who we have to work with; a
failed state would nearly guarantee an al Qaeda safe-haven• Must work to increase security and intelligence capabilities of Yemeni
security apparatus • Must help Saleh defeat the al Houthi rebels and address other perceived
threats– Cannot tie aid to only targeting al Qaeda
• Must work to prevent a military conflict with southern secessionists and disentangle southern tribes from AQAP
• Must enhance aid and development support to Yemen– Aid should focus on increasing economic opportunities, addressing
resource depletion (including the qat addiction), reforming and improving education, democracy and governance (including ending corruption) 45
Frederick Kagan and Chris Harnisch, January 12, 2010 Contact CTP Manager:
Nasser al Wahayshi (Abu Basir)Leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
• Served in Afghanistan as bin Laden’s aid• Fled to Iran after fighting in the battle of Tora Bora in December
2001; arrested in Iran in early 2002• Extradited to Yemen in 2003, with eight others• Escaped in the February 2006 prison break• Officially recognized as al Qaeda in Yemen’s leader June 21, 2007
(although was likely serving as its head by mid-2006)• Became leader of AQAP in January 2009• Issued multiple statements calling on Muslims to rebel against
Arab regimes, especially in Saudi Arabia and Yemen• Said to have survived the 12/24 strike, unconfirmed
Qasim al Raymi (Abu Hurayrah)AQAP Arhab cell leader
• Arrested and escaped in the February 2006 prison break• Became deputy leader of al Qaeda in Yemen• His June 21, 2007 audio statement announced al Qaeda in
Yemen’s reestablishment with al Wahayshi as leader• Believed to have masterminded July 2, 2007 suicide car bomb that
killed eight Spanish tourists in Ma’rib• Appeared in January 2009 initial AQAP video • Reportedly running a training camp in Abyan• Reportedly killed in 1/4 raid in Arhab, unconfirmed
• Reportedly member of 15-man cell that launched the attack on the French tanker Limburg on October 6, 2002
• Resisted arrest in 2003 and killed a Yemeni police officer• Escaped in the February 2006 prison break• Turned himself in to authorities and struck a deal renouncing al
Qaeda in exchange for his freedom• Reportedly reconnected with Qasim al Raymi
• Influential American-Yemeni whose radicalized teachings are readily available online and who is accessible via his blog– Connections found to 9/11 hijackers, the Virginia 11, 7/7
bombers, Toronto 18, Fort Hood shooting, and Christmas day attack
– “44 Ways to Support Jihad,” calls on all Muslims to engage in jihad
• FBI opened inquiry into activities in 1999-2000• Investigated for connection to two 9/11 hijackers• Arrested in Yemen for al Qaeda ties in 2006, supposedly at the
U.S.’s behest, released 18 months later• Indications that he is a recruiter and is “operational”• Said to have survived the 12/24 strike, unconfirmed 53
Frederick Kagan and Chris Harnisch, January 12, 2010 Contact CTP Manager:
Major al Qaeda in Yemen Attacks (AQIY)Prior to 2009
• 9/17/2008: U.S. Embassy targeted by VBIED in Sana’a• 8/7/2008: Police convoy targeted in grenade attack in Hadramawt• 6/25/2008: Oil refinery hit in rocket attack in Ma'rib• 5/30/2008: Aden’s oil refineries and pipelines targeted in mortar attack• 4/30/2008: Italian embassy targeted in mortar attack in Sana’a• 4/23/2008: Police station damaged in grenade attack in Hadramawt• 4/16/2008: 3 police officers killed, 4 civilians wounded in landmine
explosion by suspected AQIY in Ma'rib• 4/12/2008: Water tank damaged in mortar attack by in Sana’a• 4/6/2008: Several houses damaged in mortar attack Sana’a• 3/18/2008: 1 police officer, 1 child killed, 22 civilians, 5 police officers
wounded in mortar attack in Sana’a• 1/18/2008: 5 civilians killed, 3 others wounded in attack in Hadramawt
• 11/5/2007: Oil pipeline damaged in IED attack in Ma'rib• 8/9/2007: Government building, police checkpoint, and power station
damaged in armed attack by suspected AQIY in Ma'rib• 7/2/2007: 10 civilians killed, 8 others wounded in VBIED attack by
suspected AQIY Ma'rib• 9/15/2006: Synchronized car VBIEDs targeting American and Canadian-
owned oil facilities attempted in al Dhaba, Hadramawt and Safir, Ma’rib • 12/4/2003: Assassination of the director intelligence of ‘Ibb province• 12/30/2002: 3 American missionary doctors killed and another wounded in
Jibla by Islamic extremist who spoke with al Qaeda members before attack• 10/6/2002: Attack on MV Limburg reminiscent of attack on USS Cole• 4/4/2002: Small explosion near U.S. embassy in Sana’a• 10/13/2000: Bomb exploded at UK embassy in Sana’a, no casualties• 10/12/2000: Attack USS Cole killed 17 American sailors• 1/3/2000: Failed attack on the USS Sullivans in Aden similar to USS Cole
Al Qaeda attacks in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Prior to 2009
• 2/24/2006: 2 security guards wounded in suicide VBIED in Abqaiq
• 6/30/2005: Security officer killed in armed attack by suspected al Qaeda near Mecca
• 12/29/2004: 4 civilians wounded in VBIED attack in Riyadh
• 12/29/2004: Civilian killed in VBIED attack in Riyadh
• 12/6/2004: 5 government employees killed, 3 others, 4 civilians, 2 soldiers wounded in armed attack and bombing in Jiddah
• 9/26/2004: contractor killed in armed attack by suspected al Qaeda in Jiddah
• 9/15/2004: UK citizen killed in Riyadh• 8/30/2004: Civilians targeted in attack by suspected al Qaeda in Jiddah• 8/3/2004: Civilian killed by suspected al Qaeda in Riyadh• 6/12/2004: Contractor kidnapped, then killed in Riyadh• 6/12/2004: Contractor killed in armed attack in Riyadh