CHRISTIAN LUIGA president & CEO Douglas lubbe CFO Year-end REPORT JANUARY – december 2019 Q4
CHRISTIAN LUIGA president & CEO
Douglas lubbeCFO
Year-end REPORT JANUARY – december 2019 Q4
CASH FLOW AND EBITDA GROWTH FROM LOWER COST
OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOW
SWEDEN OPEX REDUCTIONGROUP OPEX REDUCTION
4%
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19
12.6BN*
EBITDA DEVELOPMENT
~2%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q412-12.5BN ✔ ✔
✔
We said We did
~2%
We said We did
~3%
We said We did
We said We did
~4%** 3% adjusted for pension refund Q4
✔2
* SEK12.2bn adjusted for Q4 pension refund
Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19
Service revenue growth
Growth excl. Telia Carrier
-1.7%
-1.5%
-0.6%
IMPROVED SERVICE REVENUE AND EBITDA TRENDS
• Improved revenue trend excluding fiber OTC
• Telia Carrier still weights slightly on group
SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENT*Organic & like for like growth, external service revenues
* 2018 based on organic growth (stable FX and M&A excluded) 2019 based on like for like growth (Stable FX and M&A included in current & corresponding period)Not including the segment TV and Media established in Q4 2019
6,680 7,413 7,465 8,226 7,914
Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19
Reported EBITDA Organic/like for like EBITDA growth
• Mainly driven by OPEX and COGS reductions
• Easy comparison and SEK 100 million pension refund in Sweden – despite this EBITDA is still growing Y/Y and Q/Q
Adjusted EBITDA DEVELOPMENT*SEK million in reported currency, organic & like for like growth excl. IFRS 16
+4%
0%
Growth excl. Telia Carrier & Sweden fiber OTC Q4 2019
3
NEW AND UNIQUE PLAYER IN THE NORDIC MEDIA SPACE
4
Synergies of SEK 0.6 billion by end 2022
Operational free cash flowof SEK 0.5 billion 2020
PROVIDING HIGH QUALITY CONTENT FOR EVERYBODY
• In accordance with our commitments to the EC we will negotiate OTT distribution rights with at least one other player in each market
Committed to reach and availability Ott rights treated in line with commitments
• Despite being offered to distribute at a zero cost in December, Com Hem stopped giving its customers right to view TV4 and C More on their TV screens
• We continued to provide TV4 and C More content through other platforms for all users in Sweden
Continued focus on market leading
reach
Content availability for all
guaranteed
5
2019 WAS A RECORD YEAR FOR TV & MEDIA
8.2 8.7
1.2 1.5
2018 2019 2020e 2018 2019 2020eNet sales EBITDA
Net sales & EBITDA (2020 illustrative)SEK billion in reported currency, external net sales & adjusted EBITDA
* PUT=People Using TV, CSOV=Commercial Share Of Viewing
KEY OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS 2019
• EBITDA growth from strong service revenues, despite the conflict at year-end
• Decline in PUT* and implications of the Com Hem dispute will imply some pressure on 2020
Continued Successful content strategy • Leading CSOV* position maintained• Strong sales execution in ad space• PUT* down 8% FY 2019 and 10% Dec 2019**
Market improved albeit still challenging• Growing in a continuously challenging market• Leading CSOV market position maintained
Significant growth in subscriptions• More than 30% OTT subscriber growth due to
domestic drama content and added sport rights• Gradual NPS improvement
6 * In the target group A15-64 year olds
Sweden B2C mobile back to growth
Postpaid arpu - B2CPostpaid ARPU B2C excluding VAS
Mobile Subscription revenues - b2cLike for like growth
• ARPU growth due to rise in subscription fees
• Top-ups headwind faded, pressure from IDD* remained
Q4 18 OtherSubscription fees
IDD* Q4 19Top-ups
+2%
+4%
• Mobile subscription revenues back into positive due to increase in postpaid subscriptions and ARPU growth
• Stable churn despite price adjustments
* EU international direct dialing regulation, introduced May 2019
2.0%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19
7
-1.3%
Improved B2b 2019 vs 2018
B2B service revenue GROWTH – group/SwedenOrganic growth 2018 & like for like growth 2019
* Q2 2019 positively impacted by one-off like revenues in Sweden
Ict/IOT revenues up 20%
2019 vs. 2018
8
ICT AND IOT INCREASINGLY COMPENSATING LEGACY
Finland b2b +1% q4 due to ict
growth-2.1%
Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19* Q3 19 Q4 19
FY19 -1.2%FY18 -2.3%
FULL YEAR 2019 OPEX TARGET REALIZED
OPEX developmentExternal expenses, like for like, including an estimated 2% cost inflation
-5%
-2%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Full year2019
• OPEX Q4 down 5 percent largely driven by Sweden
• Sweden, CPS and Denmark main contributors full year
• Full year target of around -2% on group OPEX realized
• Continued cost take-out expected 2020
2020 key efficiency drivers
• Efficiency gains in New operating model –pooling effects and synergies
• Further synergy realization from Get as well as TV & Media
• New ways of working, such as Shared service center in Lithuania
* CPS = Common Products and Services9
1,700FROM
COUNTRIES
3,300RESOURSES
IN CPS now
MOVED TO
NOK 220 million
run-rAte
NOK 350 MILLION
END 2022
300 RESOURCES
END 2018
500 RESOURCES
END 2019
PROPOSING A 3.8 PERCENT DIVIDEND INCREASE
2.002.30 2.36 2.45
2016 2017 2019(proposed)
2018
+3.8%
PROPOSED DIVIDEND EQUALS AN AMOUNT OF SEK 10.0 BILLION VS. SEK
9.8 billion 2018
2016
11.7
2017 2019
12.4
2018
12.5
7.5
Dividend from associated companiesOperational free cash flow (2019 adjusted for pension*)
115% 80% 84% 80%
Dividend base and pay-out ratiosSEK billion and pay-out ratios
* Adjusted for SEK 0.4 billion pension refund in Q4 201910
SEK 12.9 billion reported 2019SEK 12.5 billion adjusted for pension refund*
0.4
12.2*
CMD 2019 MESSAGE UPDATE
PUSH FOR EFFICIENCY
EXECUTION OF M&A
WISE INVESTMENtS
USING OUR SCALE
BEST IN CLASS CASH
MANAGEMENT
FIGHT FOR GROWTH
• Convergence
• Smart pricing
• Telia global
• Structural reductions
• Cost smartness
• Net OPEX reduction of 2 percent 2019-21
• Get/TDC NOK 800 million
• Bonnier Broadcasting SEK 600 million
• CAPEX coming down further
• SEK 2.4 billion remaining in working capital efficiencies
Convergence capabilities
enhanced - ready for next step
2019 ambition realized & 2020-2021 ambitions
unchanged
Norway cost synergies realized
– revenue synergies up next
Increased CAPEX ambitions from
customer driven demand, mobile in
FInland & Get in NOrway
Well in reach of the SEK 6bn
ambition – will be above SEK 6bn end
2020
11
CMD 2019message
Current status
By 2022 we will
STAKING OUT OUR ROAD TO ZERO
• 100 percent renewable electricity use
• 5 percent lower energy consumption per subscription equivalent (baseline 2018)
• Climate neutral within our own operations (energy and business travel)
• Engage with all suppliers to have a plan in place by 2022 to reach Zero CO2 by 2030, including their suppliers
• Significantly increase reuse of network and B2C/B2B equipment
• Comprehensive green offerings in all markets
• Include sustainability in incentives and performance evaluation
12
DARING GOALS2030
OUTLOOK FOR 2020
SEK 10.5-11.5 BILLIONO P E R A T I O N A L F C F *
TO GROW BETWEEN 2-5% COMPARED TO 2019A D J U S T E D E B I T D A *
13* Based on the Group structure at year-end 2019 (i.e. including the segment TV and Media established in December 2019). Adjusted EBITDA in stable FX
Douglas lubbeCFO
Year-end REPORT JANUARY – december 2019 Q4
EBITDA GROWTH DESPITE REVENUE PRESSURE
• Sweden down due to PSTN and fiber OTC
• Pressure on PSTN in Finland and interconnect
• Norway decline related to B2C mobile
OtherSWEQ4 18 FIN NOR DEN LIT EST LAT Telia Carrier
Q4 2019
-1.7%
FIN NOR DEN Q4 2019
ESTQ4 18 LAT Telia Carrier
SWE LIT Other
+4%
• Strong Sweden due to lower OPEX
• Norway impacted by one-off items
• Revenue mix and lack of efficiencies in Finland
SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENTLike for like growth, external service revenues
EBITDA DEVELOPMENTLike for like growth, excluding adjustment items and IFRS 16
15
Growth in b2c excluding fiber otc
• Significant impact on B2C from lower fiber OTC
• Excl. fiber OTC B2C grew due to strong mobile and fixed broadband
• B2B down from deterioration in mobile revenues
B2B
B2C
SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENTReported currency, external service revenues
Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19
B2C excl. fiber OTC B2B B2C
+1.3%
-2.1%
-2.5%
3%
6%
Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19
Adjusted EBITDA DEVELOPMENT*Organic & like for like growth excl. IFRS 16
* 2018 based on organic growth definition (stable FX and M&A excluded) 2019 based on like for like growth (Stable FX and M&A included in current & corresponding period)
• Significant growth Q4 driven by lower costs
• Efficiencies realized
• Pension refund contributed by SEK 100 million
• Easy comparison figure16
9%Pension refund and easy comparison
REVENUE MIX PRESSURING EBITDA DEVELOPMENT
3,324 3,412
1,136 1,254
Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 18 Q4 19Service revenues EBITDA
-1.4%
• PSTN and interconnect burden service revenues
• Fixed legacy in B2B compensated by ICT
• Revenues mix and limited cost reduction in PSTN explain EBITDA decline
= Like for like growth excl. IFRS 16
SERVICE REVENUES & ADJUSTED EBITDASEK million in reported currency & like for like growth excl. IFRS 16
-3%
• Continued strong ARPU development
• Smart pricing and low margin VAS
• Ex. VAS ARPU grew by 1.8 percent
• Subscription erosion within both B2B and B2C
17
18
19
20
21
22
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19
Subscriptions Postpaid ARPU
+3.4%
= ARPU growth y-o-y
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS AND postpaid ARPUTotal subscription base in 000’, postpaid ARPU in local currency
17
3,063 3,120
1,371 1,505
Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 18 Q4 19
REVENUE PRESSURE NOT OFFSET BY LOWER COSTS
-1%
-1.8%
• Mobile decline due to subscriber loss in B2C
• Underlying EBITDA development around 2 percent
• Synergy execution as planned
• Stable low single-digit growth in Get
• Pressure on traditional fixed B2B telco services
• B2B mobile still growing
SERVICE REVENUES & ADJUSTED EBITDASEK million in reported currency & like for like growth excl. IFRS 16
service REVenues - BB/TV & full B2B segmentSEK million, like for like, external service revenues
= Like for like growth excl. IFRS 16
Service revenues EBITDA 0
300
600
900
Q4 18 Q4 19
TV Broadband
+1.0%
0
200
400
600
800
Q4 18 Q4 19
B2B
-2.3%
18
-5%Y-o-y
+10%Y-o-y
324379
233280
237295
Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19
Estonia Lithuania Denmark
Q4 18 Q4 19Estonia
Q4 18 Q4 19Denmark
+9%
Q4 18 Q4 19Lithuania
Strong baltics whilst denmark contracted
+6%-8%
-6.4%
+6.0%
+8.9%
• Significant growth in Lithuania largely driven by transit revenues
• Another great quarter for Estonia in all key areas
• Denmark continued to struggle on mobile
• Both revenue growth and cost control supported EBITDA in Lithuania
• Revenue driven EBITDA growth in Estonia
• Despite working on costs, Denmark unable to offset revenue decline
SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENTLike for like growth, external service revenues
Adjusted EBITDA DEVELOPMENTSEK million in reported currency & like for like growth excl. IFRS 16
= Like for like growth excl. IFRS 1619
operational free Cash FLOW grew 16 percent 2019
02468
101214
Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19
OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOW developmentSEK billion, rolling twelve months
SEK 12.6 billion
OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOW 2019SEK billion, rolling twelve months
• As expected operational free cash flow came down Q4 as WC swung back
EBITDA less
leasing*
WC2018
-0.112.61.8
-0.4
CAPEX ex.
licenses
0.4
Other 2019
10.8
+16%
• EBITDA growth mainly due to FX and Norway M&A
• Neutral NWC impact due to Q4 swing back and higher cash CAPEX
• Other items rose driven mainly by higher pension refund* Repayment of lease liabilities20
net debt up due to dividend and M&A
• Net debt increased driven mainly by the Bonnier Broadcasting acquisition and payment of the second dividend tranche
• Share buy-backs of around SEK 0.9 billion left to do until the AGM 2020
• Bonnier Broadcasting earn-out of around SEK 0.8 billion
• The remaining 50% equals to SEK 0.2 billion in dividend from Turkcell to be received H1 2020
• Pro forma leverage of 2.76x
3.91.5
4.9
9.2
DividendCashCAPEX
88.1
Buy-backs
-5.6
Q3 19
75.4
Operations Other
-1.2
Q4 19Bonnier Broadcasting
2.50x
2.71x
= Leverage ratio (multiple, rolling 12 months including a full 12 months of Get/TDC Norway and Bonnier Broadcasting)
NET DEBT DEVELOPMENTContinuing and discontinued operations, SEK billion, and leverage ratio
21
Operational free Cash flow outlook 2020
22
• EBITDA, cash CAPEX and NWC expected to be rather neutral
• Other items to reduce operational free cash flow driven by
• Paid taxes and interest to increase by c. SEK 1 billion
• Less support from the pension refund
O P E R A T I O N A L F R E E C A S H F L O W
2 0 2 0
S E K 1 0 . 5 - 1 1 . 5 B I L L I O N
Q&A
DISCLAIMER & FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This document contains the use of alternative performance measures (APM’s) to provide readers with additional financial information that is regularly reviewed by management, such as adjusted EBITDA, CAPEX and operational free cash flow. These APM’s should not be viewed as a substitute for Telia Company’s IFRS based figures, but as a complement. APM definitions can be found in Telia Company’s interims reports and Annual and Sustainability Report 2018 and may be defined differently by other companies and are therefore not alwayscomparable to similar measures used by other companies. Telia Company’s management considers these APM’s combined with IFRS performance measures and in conjunction with each other, the most appropriate way to measure the performance of Telia Company.
Statements made in this document relating to future status or circumstances, including future performance and other trend projections are forward-looking statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements due to many factors, many of which are outside the control of Telia Company.
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