Yanbu National Petrochemical Company 1 Market Data Bloomberg Code: YANSAB AB Reuters Code: 2290.SE CMP (18 th May 2010): SR43.6 O/S (mn): 562.5 Mkt Cap (SRmn): 24,525 Mkt Cap (US$mn): 6,539.5 P/E 2010e (x): 13.6 P/Bv 2010e (x): 3.3 Price Performance 1-Yr High /Low (QR): 49.0/25.1 Average Volume (000): 2,284.4 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) -8.0 16.3 58.0 Relative (%) -3.8 14.0 48.3 Relative Performance 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 4,000.0 4,500.0 5,000.0 5,500.0 6,000.0 6,500.0 7,000.0 7,500.0 Dec-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 TASI (LHS) YANSAB (SR) - RHS Source: Tadawul & Zawya Syed Taimure Akhtar Senior Financial Analyst [email protected]Phone No: +966-1-2199966 Ext 950 Yanbu National Petrochemical Co. (YANSAB) Well-integrated and state-of-art complex. Commence commercial operation with favorable market condition. Marketing alliance with SABIC. Global Research – Saudi Arabia Investment Update BUY Target Price SR50.1 YANSAB Petrochemical Complex Yanbu National Petrochemical Company (YANSAB) has a design capacity to produce 4.0mn tons of different grades of petrochemical products including basic chemicals, intermediaries and polymers. Based on the given information, the production process at the complex is well integrated, which will allow to utilize the basic chemical as a feedstock to produce the intermediaries and process polymers for industrial & other uses. Hence, the company is expected to run its operation with higher economies of scale with the company’s gross and net margins to remain in the average range of 22.0%-25.0% and 19.0%-22.0%, during 2010-13, respectively. Initiating Operational Activities The company has started its commercial operation in late 1Q2010 i.e. March 2010 and recorded 1Q2010 sales revenue of SR688.6mn and the profitability of SR259.4mn. Moreover, during 2010, we expect the ongoing improvement in the global market situation that will help the company to run its operation with better utilization rate, while average prices expected to remain on higher levels. Hence, we expect the company to increase its sales revenue at a CAGR of 14.6%, during 2010-13 to SR13.1bn in 2013. Affiliation With SABIC We believe one of the key benefit for the company is the marketing agreement with SABIC (parent company), under which the parent company is responsible to market major portion of the company’s products. Consequently, this marketing agreement, will lead the company to restrict the increase in selling & marketing cost and utilize marketing channels of SABIC. Valuation On the back of commencement of commercial production and improvement in the global market situation, we have updated our DCF base fair value of the company to SR50.1, which offers a potential upside of 14.9% from the current market price of SR43.6 (as on 18 th May 2010). Investment Indicators Year 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E Gross Profit (SRmn) - - - 2,150.1 2,598.1 2,859.3 3,100.1 Net Profit (SRmn) 109.9 (25.6) (29.2) 1,808.1 2,238.1 2,496.4 2,743.7 EPS (SR) 0.2 (0.0) (0.1) 3.2 4.0 4.4 4.9 BVPS (SR) 10.2 10.1 10.1 13.3 15.3 17.5 19.9 P/E (X) - - - 13.6 11.0 9.8 8.9 P/BV (X) 5.2 1.5 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.2 Source: Company Annual Reports & ‘Global’ Research *Historical P/E & P/BV multiples pertain to respective year-end prices, while those for future years are based on closing prices on the Tadawul as of 18 th May 2010.
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Yanbu National Petrochemical Co. (YANSAB) · 2012. 11. 27. · and recorded 1Q2010 sales revenue of SR688.6mn and the profitability of SR259.4mn. Moreover, during 2010, we expect
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Yanbu National Petrochemical Company 1
Market Data Bloomberg Code: YANSAB AB Reuters Code: 2290.SE CMP (18th May 2010): SR43.6 O/S (mn): 562.5 Mkt Cap (SRmn): 24,525 Mkt Cap (US$mn): 6,539.5 P/E 2010e (x): 13.6 P/Bv 2010e (x): 3.3
Price Performance 1-Yr High /Low (QR): 49.0/25.1 Average Volume (000): 2,284.4
Net Profit (SRmn) 109.9 (25.6) (29.2) 1,808.1 2,238.1 2,496.4 2,743.7
EPS (SR) 0.2 (0.0) (0.1) 3.2 4.0 4.4 4.9
BVPS (SR) 10.2 10.1 10.1 13.3 15.3 17.5 19.9
P/E (X) - - - 13.6 11.0 9.8 8.9
P/BV (X) 5.2 1.5 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.2 Source: Company Annual Reports & ‘Global’ Research
*Historical P/E & P/BV multiples pertain to respective year-end prices, while those for future years are based on closing
prices on the Tadawul as of 18th May 2010.
Global Research – Saudi Arabia Global Investment House
2 Yanbu National Petrochemical Company May 2010
Valuation & Recommendation
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method We have used discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology to value YANSAB stock and used Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to calculate the cost of the equity, which is based on the following assumptions:
Risk-free rate of 5.6%
Market risk premium of 6.0%
Beta of 1.2
Cost of equity of 12.8%
Cost of debt of 7.0% The Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) based on the above assumptions is 9.5%. We have assumed a terminal growth rate of 3.0% and arrived at the DCF base value of SR50.1 for YANSAB based on earnings projections till 2013.
FCF (136.5) 2,401.8 2,677.3 2,919.6 Discounted Cash Flow (128.1) 2,059.0 2,096.4 2,088.2 Terminal Value 46,400.9 Primary Value (discounted) 6,115.5 Terminal Value (discounted) 33,187.3 Net Present Value 39,302.9 Long-term Debt (11,944.4) Cash 811.0 Net Worth of YANSAB 28,169.4 Shares Outstanding ('000) 562,500 Fair Value (SR) 50.1
Source: Global Research
Sensitivity Analysis A sensitivity analysis for different estimated long-run future growth rates and weighted cost of capital is shown in table below. The table provides estimated DCF based fair values for YANSAB share based on a range of varying inputs. YANSAB – Sensitivity Analysis
Terminal Growth Rates
1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00%
WA
CC
7.48% 53.6 65.6 83.0 110.4 159.9
8.48% 43.2 51.8 63.5 80.5 107.2
9.48% 35.3 41.7 50.1 61.5 78.1
10.48% 29.1 34.0 40.2 48.4 59.6
11.48% 24.0 27.9 32.7 38.8 46.8
Source: Global Research
Valuation Based on our valuations, at present, the stock is trading at a prospective 2010 and 2011 P/E of 13.6x and 11.0x, and offering the potential upside of 14.9% from the current market price of SR43.6 as on 18th May 2010. We, therefore, recommend BUY for the stock.
Global Research – Saudi Arabia Global Investment House
3 Yanbu National Petrochemical Company May 2010
Yanbu National Petrochemical Company - Financial Update Production Structure The production complex at YANSAB is designed to produce 4.0mn tons of different grades of petrochemical products ranging from basic chemicals to intermediaries to polymers of which most of the capacity is dedicated to produce ethylene and its related intermediaries and polymer products.
Capacity Composition
Ethylene, 32.1%
Propylene, 9.9%
MEG, 17.3%
DEG, 1.6%
TEG, 0.1%
Polypropylene,
9.9%
LLDPE, 9.9%
HLDPE, 9.9%
Buetene-1, 1.6%
Buetene-2, 1.2%MTBE, 0.5% Benzene, 4.2% BTX, 1.7%
Source: Company Annual Reports
Moreoever, the complex’s given production flow indicates the production at the complex at the plant is well-integrated and will enable the company to process most of its basic chemical to process intermediaries and polymer products for industrial and other uses. Sales Revenue Growth - Higher Capacity Utilization & Strong Prices We believe the timing of the commencement of commercial operation from YANSAB complex in 1Q2010 will remain the key benefit for the company to avail opportunities of improvement in the global market, which will lead the complex to enjoy better capacity utilization rate. Hence, we expect the newly-build complex will be able to run its capacity on better average utilization rate of 75.8%, during 2010, which will be translated in to the net production of 1.9mn tons. However, 2010 onwards, the expectations of better development in the global economy will remain the leading factor for the company to continue the improvement in its utilization rate, which will lead the company’s net production to increase at a CAGR of 6.3%, during 2010-13, and reach at 2.3mn tons in 2013.
Global Research – Saudi Arabia Global Investment House
4 Yanbu National Petrochemical Company May 2010
Production & Capacity Utilization YANSAB Sales Revenue Growth
Sales Revenue (SR mn) - LHS Growth - RHS Source: Global Research Source: Global Research
On the back of expectations of average prices of related petrochemical products to remain strong, during 2010 , we believe the company’s sales revenue will reach at SR8.6bn. Moreover, from 2010 onward, the expected improvement in the company’s net production along with the higher average prices of related petrochemical product will lead the company’s sales revenue to increase at a CAGR of 14.6% during 2010-13 and reach at SR13.0bn in 2013. Sales Revenue Composition 2010E Sales Revenue Composition 2013E
Ethylene, 6.1%
Propylene, 2.1%
MEG, 28.4%
DEG, 2.6%
TEG, 0.2%
Polypropylene,
16.7%
LLDPE, 16.4%
HLDPE, 14.7%
Buetene-1, 3.5%
Buetene-2, 2.7%
MTBE, 0.5%Benzene, 4.5% BTX, 1.6%
Ethylene, 6.0%
Propylene, 2.0%
MEG, 28.2%
DEG, 2.6%
TEG, 0.2%
Polypropylene,
16.7%
LLDPE, 16.4%
HLDPE, 14.8%
Buetene-1, 3.4%
Buetene-2, 2.6%
MTBE, 0.5%Benzene, 4.5%
BTX, 2.0%
Source: Global Research Source: Global Research
Based on the given production capacity, we expect the most of the company’s sales revenue will drive from the sales of ethylene related polymers and intermediaries, which will account for 68.5% of total revenue, during 2010. However, we believe the contribution from ethylene (basic chemical) will remain at 6.1% during 2010-13, which is mainly based on the expectation to utilize most of the basic chemical to produce intermediaries and polymers. Gross & EBITDA Margins The expected improvement in the capacity utilization and strong average prices will lead the company to record the gross profit of SR2.1bn, during 2010, which indicates the gross margin of 24.7% during 2010. Going forward, we believe the expected improvement in the global markets, during 2011-13, will help the company to overcome the impact of higher depreciation and financial cost and maintain its gross margin in the average range of 23.0%-25.0% during 2011-13.
Global Research – Saudi Arabia Global Investment House
5 Yanbu National Petrochemical Company May 2010
Gross Margins EBITDA Margins
24.7%
23.1%
23.4%
23.7%
22.0%
22.5%
23.0%
23.5%
24.0%
24.5%
25.0%
-
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Gross Profit (SR mn) - LHS Gross Margins - RHS
32.4%
29.1%
29.1%29.2%
27.0%
28.0%
29.0%
30.0%
31.0%
32.0%
33.0%
-
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
4,000.0
4,500.0
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
EBITDA Profit (SR mn) - LHS EBITDA Margins - RHS Source: Global Research Source: Global Research
The company is expected to register EBITDA margin of 32.4% in 2010, which is expected to relax in the average range of 29.0%-30.0%, during 2011-13. In addition, the expectations of decline average EBITDA margins is mainly based on the increase in the operating expenses at a CAGR of 11.2%, during 2010-13. Profitability Growth The company has posted after tax profit of SR259.4mn in 1Q2010, since the inception of its commercial operation. We expect the company will post after tax profit of SR1.8bn (EPS; 3.21) in 2010, while the impact of full year operation along with better capacity utilization rate and strong average prices will lead the profitability to show YoY increase of 23.8% in 2011. Furthermore, we expect the company’s profitability will increase at a CAGR of 14.9% during 2010-13 to reach at SR2.7bn in 2013. Profitability & ROAA Profitability & ROAE
1.0%
-0.2% -0.1%
8.1%
9.3%
10.3%11.2%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
(500.0)
-
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Profitability (SR mn) - LHS ROAA - RHS
1.9%
-0.4% -0.5%
27.5%
27.9% 27.1%26.1%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
(500.0)
-
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Profitability (SR mn) - LHS ROAE - RHS Source: Company Reports & Global Research Source: Company Reports & Global Research
We expect the company’s prospective ROAA and ROAE will remain in the average range of 8.0%-11.5% and 25.5-28.0% during 2010-13, respectively.
Global Research – Saudi Arabia Global Investment House
6 Yanbu National Petrochemical Company May 2010
Petrochemical Sector Regional Petrochemical Capacity Expansion Though there were some delays in the regional upcoming capacities, the countries remained committed to their expansion plans and did not cancel much of the projects. We believe the delay in these projects was mainly attributed toward the size and intention to further stream line the designed production flows along with the impact of global economic slowdown.
Regional Petrochemical Capacity Expansion
0.1%7.9%
15.2%
11.7%4.6%
4.6% 1.2%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
-
10,000.0
20,000.0
30,000.0
40,000.0
50,000.0
60,000.0
70,000.0
80,000.0
90,000.0
100,000.0 2
00
7
20
08
20
09
20
10
E
20
11
E
20
12
E
20
13
EProduction Capacity ('000' ton) Growth
Source: FAO & Global Research Based on the updated completion plans of upcoming complexes, we expect major regional capacity expansions to happen in 2010 and lead to an addition of 9.0% in the regional basic chemicals (aromatic, olefins and oxygenate) capacity. Moreover, in term of CAGR the regional basic chemical capacity is expected to increase at a CAGR of 4.7% during 2009-13 to 116.2mn tons. Regional Petrochemical Capacity Expansion (tons)
Project Names Country Olefins Aromatic Oxygenate Expected
Furthermore, based on the availability of feedstock gas at highly subsidized price in the region, we believe the region will be in the better position to react first and take advantage of the future recovery
Global Research – Saudi Arabia Global Investment House
7 Yanbu National Petrochemical Company May 2010
as compared to the other international players. Furthermore, the advantage of the availability of gas at highly subsidized will help the region to keep their capacity utilization at higher rate compared to their international peers in the future. Saudi Arabia Petrochemical Sector Most of the regional petrochemical production facilities are located inside the Kingdom followed by the State of Qatar. Based on our calculations, the Kingdom is expected to maintain its domination in the overall regional capacity during 2009-13. Based on the given regional expansion plans, the contribution from the Kingdom is expected to remain stagnant during 2010-13. Meanwhile, the expected capacity expansions from the State of Qatar and Bahrain will lead to significant improvement in their regional contribution during 2010-13. KSA Regional Contribution 2009 KSA Regional Contribution 2013E
KSA , 74.4%
Qatar, 10.6%
UAE, 2.0%
Kuwait, 8.7%
Oman,
3.7%Bahrain, 0.7%
KSA , 69.8%
Qatar, 14.1%
UAE, 2.4%
Kuwait, 7.0%
Oman, 4.2%
Bahrain, 2.5%
Source: Company Reports & Global Research Source: Company Reports & Global Research
Furthermore, based on the given expansion plans, the Kingdom is expected to make an addition of around 8.6mn in the domestic basic chemical capacity by 2013, which shows the Kingdom is expected to contribute 50.6% to overall regional capacity expansion by 2013. Consequently, this will increase the domestic basic chemical production capacity to 61.8mn tons by 2013 at a 2009-13 CAGR of 3.8%. KSA Basic Chemical Capacity Growth KSA Production & Capacity Utilization
0.1% 5.6%
11.9%8.6%
3.3% 1.8% 1.7%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
-
10,000.0
20,000.0
30,000.0
40,000.0
50,000.0
60,000.0
70,000.0
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
E
20
11
E
20
12
E
20
13
E
Capacity ('000' mn) - LHS Growth - RHS
101.1%
76.6%
80.8%
90.1%
93.7%97.3%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
105.0%
-
10,000.0
20,000.0
30,000.0
40,000.0
50,000.0
60,000.0
70,000.0
20
08
20
09
20
10
E
20
11
E
20
12
E
20
13
E
Production ('000' tons) - LHS Capacity Utilization - RHS Source: Company Reports & Global Research Source: Company Reports & Global Research
Global Research – Saudi Arabia Global Investment House
8 Yanbu National Petrochemical Company May 2010
Based on our calculations, the domestic capacity utilization has shown a significant fall during 2009, which is expected to show an improvement in coming years. The expectations of improvement in the domestic capacity utilization is mainly based on the (i) upcoming well integrated capacities, (ii) forecasted improvement in the global economies from 2H2010 onwards and (iii) revival in the domestic demand of petrochemical products. Consequently, this will lead to an increase in Kingdom’s overall petrochemical production at a 2009-13 CAGR of 16.7% to 56.1mn tons. Moreover, the ongoing weak demand in the core-petrochemical products (i.e. basic, intermediaries and polymers) in Western and US markets is still a big challenge for the Kingdom’s leading producers to maintain their exports. Feedstock & Petrochemical Product Prices Natural gas is the main feedstock for petrochemical and related products and crude oil prices are used as a benchmark to set gas prices in international markets. However, gas prices are highly subsidized in certain regions of the world such as Middle-East, Northern Africa, and South Asia where pre-determined discounts exist which fix the price to US$0.75 per mmbtu (in Saudi Arabia) to US$2.5 per mmbtu (North Africa and South Asia). In view of improvement in crude oil prices during 2H2009, we expect the average prices of crude oil will remain in the range of US$77.0 to US$85.0 per barrel during 2010 an increase of 26.6% to 39.7% over average prices recorded in 2009. Crude Oil & Gas Prices Basic Petrochemical Product Prices
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
OPEC Crude Oil (US$ per barrel) - LHS Gas Prices (US$ per mmbtu) - RHS
-
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
-
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
4,000.0
4,500.0
5,000.0
2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Ethylene (US$ per ton) - LHS Propylene (US$ per ton) - LHS
Butadiene (US$ per ton) - LHS Methanol (US$ per ton) - RHS
MTBE (US$ per ton) - RHS Benzene (US$ per ton) - RHS Source: EIA, OPEC & Global Research Source: Bloomberg, & Global Research
Furthermore, on the back of improvement in global situation, we believe the long term prices of crude oil to remain in the range of US$80.0-85.0 per barrel during 2009-13. Subsequently, the long-term average prices of gas are expected to remain in the range of US$4.0 to US$5.25 per mmbtu during 2009-13. We believe the expected stability in the average prices of feedstock prices will lead the average prices of petrochemical products to increase at a CAGR of 10.7% during 2009-13. Furthermore, based on our expectations, the average prices per ton of ethylene, propylene, methanol, MTBE, benzene, and butadiene, during 2009-13 will remain in the range of US$1,120-1,200, US$1,200-1,300.0, US$300-350, US$840-880, US$950-1,000, and US$1,900-2,000 respectively.
Global Research – Saudi Arabia Global Investment House
9 Yanbu National Petrochemical Company May 2010
INCOME STATEMENT YANBU NATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY (SR '000') 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Total Shareholders' Equity 5,722,511 5,696,923 5,667,710 7,474,783 8,592,801 9,839,958 11,210,788
Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 15,309,280 18,677,087 21,123,975 23,783,085 24,094,680 24,378,406 24,689,551 Source: Company Reports & Global Research
Global Research – Saudi Arabia Global Investment House
11 Yanbu National Petrochemical Company May 2010
CASH FLOW STATEMENT YANBU NATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY SR’000’ 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2012E
Source: Company Reports & Global Research *Historical P/E & P/BV multiples pertain to respective year-end prices, while those for future years are based on closing prices on the Tadawul as of 18th May 2010.
Global Research – Saudi Arabia Global Investment House
13 Yanbu National Petrochemical Company May 2010
The following is a comprehensive list of disclosures which may or may not apply to all our researches. Only the relevant disclosures which apply to this particular research has been mentioned in the table below under the heading of disclosure.
Disclosure Checklist Company Recommendation Ticker Price Disclosure
Yanbu National Petrochemical Company
BUY YANSAB AB 2290.SE
SR43.6 1,10
1. Global Investment House did not receive and will not receive any compensation from the company or anyone else for the preparation of this report.
2. The company being researched holds more than 5% stake in Global Investment House. 3. Global Investment House makes a market in securities issued by this company. 4. Global Investment House acts as a corporate broker or sponsor to this company. 5. The author of or an individual who assisted in the preparation of this report (or a member of his/her
household) has a direct ownership position in securities issued by this company. 6. An employee of Global Investment House serves on the board of directors of this company. 7. Within the past year , Global Investment House has managed or co-managed a public offering for this
company, for which it received fees. 8. Global Investment House has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment
banking or financial advisory services within the past year. 9. Global Investment House expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking
services from this company in the next three month. 10. Please see special footnote below for other relevant disclosures.
Global Research: Equity Ratings Definitions Global Rating Definition
Buy Fair value of the stock is >10% from the current market price Hold Fair value of the stock is b/w +10%/-10% from the current market price Reduce Fair value of the stock is b/w -10%/-20% from the current market price Sell Fair value of the stock is < -20% from the current market price
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