Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson Dept. Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, [email protected], [email protected]http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/ykagan.html SHORT- AND LONG-TERM EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING /moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/US012_Kagan_Jacks
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Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson Dept. Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles,
Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson Dept. Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, [email protected] , [email protected] http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/ykagan.html. SHORT- AND LONG-TERM EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING. http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/ US012_Kagan_Jackson.ppt. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson
Dept. Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles,
• Physical branching models – propagation of earthquake fault is simulated (Kagan and Knopoff, 1981; Kagan, 1982).
Kagan, Y. Y., and Knopoff, L., 1987. Statistical short-term earthquake prediction, Science, 236, 1563-1567.
Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1994. Long-term probabilisticforecasting of earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 13,685-13,700.
CMT catalog: Shallow earthquakes, 1976-2005
Long-term forecast: 1977-todaySpatial smoothing kernel is optimized by using the first part of a catalog to forecast its second part.Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 2000. Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J. Int., 143, 438-453.
Time history of long-term and hybrid (short-term plus 0.8 *long-term) forecast for a point at latitude 39.47 N., 143.54 E. northwest of Honshu Island, Japan. Blue line is the long-term forecast; red line is the hybrid forecast.
The table below and accompanying plots are calculated on 2007/ 4/19at midnight Los Angeles time. The last earthquake with scalar seismic moment M>=10^17.7 Nm (Mw>=5.8) entered in the catalog occurred inthe region 0.0 > LAT. > -60.0, -170.0 > LONG. > 110.0 on2007/ 4/16 at latitude -57.89 and longitude 148.14, Mw = 6.42____________________________________________________________________
LONG-TERM FORECAST | SHORT-TERM Probability Focal mechanism | Probability Probability M>5.8 T-axis P-axis M>5.8 ratio eq/day*km^2 Pl Az Pl Az eq/day*km^2 Time-Longitude | | | Rotation Time- dependent/ | Latitude | | | angle dependent independent v v v v degree