China’s Agricultural Risk to Climate Change • Yinlong XU (许 吟隆) • Climate Change Lab • Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, • Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) • Beijing, P. R. China • Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 • E-mail: [email protected]• 08 November, 2011
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Xu Yinlong — Agricultural risk to climate change in china
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
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China’s Agricultural Riskto Climate Change
• Yinlong XU (许 吟隆)• Climate Change Lab• Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,• Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)• Beijing, P. R. China• Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 • E-mail: [email protected]• 08 November, 2011
Content
Background
Recent Adaptation Work for Agriculture
Risk Assessment
Next-step Work-plan
Overall features of climate change in China
Obvious warming with greater climate variability
Unbalanced regional precipitation with enhanced drought and flooding
More occurrence of extreme weather/climate events with huge economic loss
The Challenges of Agriculture to Climate Change in China
Threatening food security;Enhancing the agro-meteorological disasters;Getting hard to control the agricultural diseases, pestsand weeds;Degrading the grassland and instablizing the animalhusbandry;Exacerbating the poverty in rural and ecologicallyvulnerable regions.
1. More Occurrence of Agro-meteorological Disasters
Super Typhoon Saomai and Bilis Landed in 2006
Frozen snow in Southern China in 2008. Affected Crop areas are nearly 15 Million Hectares and the direct economic losses are more than 159 Billion Yuan.
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Drought in North China Plain
2.Impacts on cropping systemThe cultivated area of single cropping system might drop by
23%,the north boundary of double cropping system might movenorthward to the middle part of the region of the present singlecropping system, and the proportion of triple cropping systemmight change from the present 13.5% to 36%.
The border of farming-pastoral ecotonemoved southward and extendedeastward between 1971-2000 and 1961-1990.
Green:↑ Red: ↓ Yellow: --Liu & Lin
Increasing
No change
Decreasing
3. Impacts on the yield of major crops
4. Impacts on the crop pests and diseases
The climate warming would change the distribution ofagricultural diseases and pests. This would increase the outbreakof pest and disease . the amount of pesticide and herbicideapplication would be increased due to the climate warming.
Rice Planthopper Wheat Aphid
Content
Background
Recent Adaptation Work for Agriculture
Risk Assessment
Next-step Work-plan
China’s INC on CC (2004)
Studies on National Strategyof CC Adaptation (2011)
National Assessment Reporton CC (2007)
Adapt to what?
Adaptation
Major tasks of Chinese agriculture to adapt to climate change
Enhancing the construction of agricultural infrastructures;Accelerating agricultural industrialization and modernization;Strengthening water conservancy facility and developing water-saving agriculture;Adjusting cropping systems and crop varieties layout;Developing adaptation techniques for animal husbandry;Establishing the early-warning systems for agricultural disasters and improving agricultural disasters insurance;Completing the adaptation technology check-list.
Action planBased on the challenges to climate change and major tasks toadapt to climate change, we proposed the action plan towards theyear 2020, including:1. basic farmland construction2. water saving project3. agricultural infrastructure construction4. constructing the gene pool and seed bank5. adjusting the cropping system6. monitoring, predicting and controlling the agro-meteorological disasters7. developing the adaptation technique checklist8. building the demonstration zone for adaptation9. preventing the grassland degradation10. forage resourcing and planning
Shortcomings of the present adaptation strategy research