This is my half of a session prepared for presentation at Starship Congress 2013, August 15-18. This version includes spoken script.
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( Xrisk 101 )Existential Risk for Interstellar Advocates
Heath Rezabek, MLISIcarus Interstellar / Long Now Foundation (Intern)
In the first, I will cover the fundamentals of Xrisk, and update on the Vessel project, a framework for preserving the cultural, scientific, and biological record.
In the second, Nick Nielsen will explore the longer term implications of overcoming Xrisk for the future of civilization.
... Though discussed in other terms, Xrisk was a key concern and priority for the DARPA 2011 starship workshop.
Enabling long-‐term survival in the face of catastrophic disasters on Earth
-‐ DARPA 2011 starship workshop report
Though discussed in other terms, Xrisk was a key concern and priority for the DARPA 2011 starship workshop. In its January 2011 report, that workshop prioritized “creating a legacy for the human species, backing up the Earth’s biosphere, and enabling long-‐term survival in the face of catastrophic disasters on Earth."
At the 100YSS 2012 Symposium, I presented a synthesis of strategies to address all three of these goals at once, called Vessel. Before updating on the Vessel project, I want to talk first about Existential Risk, what it includes, and why we should prioritize finding ways to meet its challenge.
... Existential Risk denotes, simply enough, risks to our existence.
An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.
-‐ Nick Bostrom, Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority (2013) goo.gl/LhxQ1
Nick Bostrom, Director for the Future of Humanity Institute, defines Existential Risk this way in a key paper we’ll cover throughout:
An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life, or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.
As we can see, small personal risks are down in the lower left, while situations of widespread suffering such as global tyranny are in the middle as Global Catastrophic Risks. Finally, the destruction of life’s long term potential defines Existential Risk, in the upper right.
... Xrisk has become a popular shorthand for this whole spectrum of risks. We can see signs of it emerging as a priority for various space-‐related efforts.
Xrisk has become a popular shorthand for this whole spectrum of risks. We can see signs of it emerging as a priority for various space-‐related efforts.
... One of the most popular images of Xrisk today is that of a sterilizing asteroid strike.
One of the most popular images of Xrisk today is that of a sterilizing asteroid strike. And asteroids play a big role in some of the most visible efforts in space industry today, such as the ARKYD telescope or NASA’s asteroid initiative. Specialists sometimes see unpredicted cultural or technological Xrisks as even more urgent.
... Starship Congress has its eye on some pretty long-‐term goals. And Earth provides our only space and time to work towards them.
Starship Congress has its eye on some pretty long-‐term goals. And Earth provides our only space and time to work towards them. On that basis alone, the challenge of Xrisk must be answered.
But setting aside our own goals, what are the stakes? How many lives have there been, or could yet be if extinction is avoided? Nick Bostrom has run some interesting numbers.
... To calculate the loss associated with an existential catastrophe, we must consider how much value would come to exist in its absence.
-‐ Nick Bostrom, Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority (2013)
1016
Not to Scale.
10^16 -‐-‐ 10 million billion -‐-‐ is one estimate of the potential number of future lives on Earth alone, if only 1 billion lived on it sustainably for the 1 billion years it’s projected to remain habitable.
But if we consider the possibility of the spread of life beyond Earth, or synthetic minds and lives yet to come, Bostrom’s estimate grows vast:
... 10^52 potential lives to come. 100 million x 100 billion x 100 billion x 100 billion x 100 billion
With just a slight shift in priorities, we can hugely boost the chances of life achieving its full future potential by working to enhance its prospects today.
An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.
-‐ Nick Bostrom, Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority (2013)
Let’s look at Bostrom’s definition again:
An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life, or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.
... Notice that fragment -‐ “... destruction of its potential for desirable future development.”
An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.
-‐ Nick Bostrom, Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority (2013)
Survival alone is not enough.
A surviving society may be brutalized, stagnant, or diminished irreparably, unable to aspire or to build itself anew.
Notice that fragment -‐ “... destruction of its potential for desirable future development.”
Survival alone is not enough. In some cases, a surviving society may be brutalized, stagnant, or diminished irreparably, unable to aspire or to build itself anew.
This brings us to two subtypes of Xrisk as crucial as extinction itself.
... They both fall into the realm of Global Catastrophic Risks.
Permanent StagnationHumanity survives but never reaches technological maturity. Subclasses: Unrecovered Collapse, Plateauing, Recurrent Collapse
Flawed RealizationHumanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is dismally and irremediably flawed. Subclasses: Unconsummated Realization, Ephemeral Realization
They both fall into the realm of Global Catastrophic Risks.
Permanent Stagnation -‐ Humanity survives but never reaches technological maturity or interstellar civilization.
Flawed Realization -‐ Humanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is irredeemably flawed.
Pop culture has a working knowledge of them both, in different terms.
... Nick and I joke that it’s a bit like Zombies vs Vampires.
Zombies VS Vampires
Permanent Stagnation Flawed Realization
Zombie
(CC-BY) Jarrett MatthewsVampire
(CC-BY) Jarrett Matthews
Nick and I joke that it’s a bit like Zombies vs Vampires.
Permanent Stagnation and Flawed Realization. Losing our capability as a civilization, or enduring only in a deeply flawed form. These two risks fill our dystopian movies.
But because popular culture understands them, we can learn valuable lessons about our messaging and priorities by understanding them too.
... These two types of Xrisk cut to the heart of what it means to achieve our full potential.
EDEN PROJECT: TROPICAL BIOME / Photo via Steve Keiretsu (CC-BY-1.0) 2001
These two types of Xrisk cut to the heart of what it means to achieve our full potential.
There is a vast opportunity between these risks, because of the many advances needed to achieve an interstellar future – and because of the benefits such advances could have for life on Earth -‐-‐ in areas such as habitat design, energy infrastructure, biotechnology, as well as advanced computing, networking, and archival.
... If we work to prototype here and now, solving real-‐world problems along the way, all will benefit.
If we work to prototype here and now, solving real-‐world problems along the way, all will benefit. If we make advances open and adaptable to humanity’s best minds, we will gain allies in our effort to uplift Earth and thrive beyond it.
... Perhaps advanced, resilient technologies could carry a seal standing for the dual design goals of uplifting
Perhaps advanced, resilient technologies could carry a seal standing for the dual design goals of uplifting life on Earth while advancing our reach towards the stars. Like LEED certification for an infinite future.
... What would such projects be like? Last year, I proposed the Vessel project as a means to safeguard cultural potential on Earth and beyond.
What would such projects be like? Last year, I proposed the Vessel project as a means to safeguard cultural potential on Earth and beyond.
I’ll close with a brief update on this approach to advanced computing, compact habitat design, and long-‐term archival.
... Capability lost before advanced goals are reached will be very difficult to recover, without a means of setting a baseline for civilization’s capabilities.
Capability lost before advanced goals are reached will be very difficult to recover, without a means of setting a baseline for civilization’s capabilities.
A Vessel is an installation, facility, or habitat that serves as a reservoir for Earth’s biological, scientific, and cultural record. Into a Vessel is poured what must be remembered for humanity’s potential to be maintained. On Earth or beyond, a Vessel habitat is designed to carry forth the sum of all we’ve been. In 2012, Vessel was pictured as the Lilypad seasteading habitat. But different Vessels would have different designs based on their needs and settings. These traits remain key in each case:
... At a Vessel’s core would lie biological archives, meant to preserve key traces of Earth’s biodiversity.
Biological Cache(Library of Life)
Cultural Cache
Scientific Cache DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert)
Photo via Bradbury J: Nature's Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004
G. Benford: Saving The Library of Life (1992) goo.gl/wjhSC
At a Vessel’s core would lie biological archives, meant to preserve key traces of Earth’s biodiversity. Here the primary model is Gregory Benford’s groundbreaking 1992 Library of Life proposal. He details a program for freezing and preservation of endangered biomass for possible future recovery.
Also crucial would be core archives for cultural and scientific knowledge, both physical and digital. I’m working with Icarus Interstellar to make sure the Vessel framework is compatible with Icarus projects.
... Surrounding these archives would be Research Labs, where specialists can collaborate on advanced technologies,
James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010
Research Labs (Inwards-Facing Facilities)
Surrounding these archives would be Research Labs, where specialists could collaborate on advanced technologies, seeking critical paths which avoid and mitigate Xrisk. Or, in a time of recovery, sealed labs could be the birthplace of new beginnings.
Research Labs would open inwards to draw upon the Core Cache.
... But in the near term, through an outer ring of Learning Labs, Vessel facilities could welcome the curious
But in the near term, through an outer ring of Learning Labs, Vessel facilities could welcome the curious, and give visitors an inspiring glimpse at advanced studies.
Immersive labs could be catalysts for change, helping people understand the arc of history in nature, culture and science, the common risks ahead, and the limitless possibilities if Earth achieves its full potential.
... Built around these three roles -‐-‐ of Learning, Research, and Archival -‐-‐ the Vessel framework is designed to adapt to any setting or situation.
Built around these three roles -‐-‐ of Learning, Research, and Archival -‐-‐ the Vessel framework is designed to adapt to any setting or situation.
What all Vessels would have in common is a dedication to preserving cultural capability, and a layered, approachable presence adapted to its setting.
Many should be built, using many approaches. Some could be public, while mission critical Vessels may be as remote as the Svalbard Seed Vault, or even secret.
... Some may be massive habitats, with others more like sculptures, compact and dense as a room.
Dome (CC-BY-NC) Tak
Desert-Qatar (CC-0) Public Domain (CC-BY-NC-ND) M.C.Chavez
Some may be massive as habitats, with others more like sculptures, compact and dense as a room.
At the recent Starship Century conference in May, Freeman Dyson envisioned terrarium-‐like habitats which could seed the vast reaches of space with life. This egg-‐like approach is hugely inspiring to ponder from the perspective of the Vessel project.
Whether urban or remote, extreme habitats or modules on a starship, Vessel is offered as a flexible framework for the long term survival of life’s capabilities.
... The Vessel project has several routes forwards.
The Vessel project has several routes forwards.
My plans for 2014 include a global survey of existing long-‐term archival projects, an open design document to help others adapt and evolve the Vessel framework, and a Kickstarter for a Vessel-‐related art project.
Right before Starship Congress, I began an Internship with the Long Now Foundation, working on a project called the Manual for Civilization.
... As the first core collection for their planned Library of the Long Now, a 10,000 year archive, this work will overlap deeply with the Vessel project.
labs.vessel.ccRegister for updates on Vessel and the Long Now Manual for Civilization projects at:vessel.cc.launchrock.com
As the first core collection for their planned Library of the Long Now, a 10,000 year archive, this work will overlap deeply with the Vessel project.
So, my own timeline for Vessel is in flux. But if you’d like to collaborate, discuss ways of applying Xrisk mitigation to your own work, or want to help accelerate these efforts, please get in touch.
You can register for updates on the Vessel project at vessel.cc.launchrock.com
[Pause]
We now turn towards the longer term, with Nick Nielsen.