Xanadu X-ing, North West May 2007 Retail study Update: Demographics & Retail Potential Note: This project should be regarded as confidential as it contains.

Xanadu X-ing, North WestXanadu X-ing, North West

May 2007

Retail study Update:Demographics & Retail Potential

Note: This project should be regarded as confidential as it contains Data, Information and Intellectual Property of Fernridge Consulting - Copyright (Limited Distribution)Copyright 2007: Fernridge Consulting.

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Part 1: OverviewPart 1: Overview

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Copyright 2006: Fernridge Consulting.

Orientation

Copyright 2007: Fernridge Consulting

Xanadu X-ing is situated on the Eastern side of Hartbeespoortdam. The town is situated to the South of Brits in the North-West province.

SiteSite

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SiteSite

SiteSite


Orientation


Xanadu X-ing is a community centre of ±9,100 m² GLA with Pick ‘n Pay as the main anchor. It is surrounded by a number of residential developments.

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Part 2: Site EvaluationPart 2: Site Evaluation



Site


The site is situated well to intercept traffic. Developments surrounding the site will compliment the shopping centre well.

To Pretoria/Johannesburg

To Ifafi/Brits

Planet Fitness

Private School

Netcare Hospital

Xanadu X-ing

Filling Station

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Part 4: Retail Potential EstimatePart 4: Retail Potential Estimate


T o ta l E x p / m o n th T o ta l E x p / y e a rA v e T r a d in g D e n s i ty ( R a n d

/ m ² se l l i n g p e r ye a r ) A r e a P o te n t ia l G L A

R 30 , 827 , 879 R 369 , 934 , 552 R 30 , 000 15 , 414

R 10 , 620 , 980 R 127 , 451 , 766 R 18 , 000 8, 851

R 5 , 789 , 889 R 69 , 478 , 662 R 25 , 000 3, 474

R 7 , 058 , 140 R 84 , 697 , 686 R 20 , 000 5, 294

R 6 , 571 , 181 R 78 , 854 , 177 R 16 , 000 6, 160

R 4 , 216 , 511 R 50 , 598 , 129 R 18 , 000 3, 514

R 4 , 592 , 720 R 55 , 112 , 645 R 13 , 000 5, 299

R 5 , 779 , 185 R 69 , 350 , 222 R 25 , 000 3, 468

R 3 , 991 , 961 R 47 , 903 , 526 R 12 , 000 4, 990

R 1 , 993 , 883 R 23 , 926 , 592 R 5 , 500 5, 438

T o t a l P o t e n t i a l R 81 , 442 , 330 R 977 , 307 , 956 R 18 , 250 6 1 , 9 0 1

A re a w a r ra nt e d G L A

O u td o o r

W in e & D in e

H a r d w a r e / D IY

E n te r ta in m e n t

Sp e c ia l i ty

H o m e

F u r n i tu r e & A p p l ia n c e s

Se r v ic e s

F o o d & G r o c e r ie s

C F T A

M a in C a te go r y


Total Retail Potential Estimate (RPE) – 2007


Primary Catchment

Total Exp / month Total Exp / yearAve Trading Density (Rand

/ m² selling per year) Area Potential GLA

R 3,717,000 R 44,604,000 R 30,000 1,859

R 1,341,030 R 16,092,360 R 18,000 1,118

R 651,730 R 7,820,760 R 25,000 391

R 733,400 R 8,800,800 R 20,000 550

R 749,880 R 8,998,560 R 16,000 703

R 473,980 R 5,687,760 R 18,000 395

R 442,370 R 5,308,440 R 13,000 510

R 634,580 R 7,614,960 R 25,000 381

R 498,600 R 5,983,200 R 12,000 623

R 278,290 R 3,339,480 R 5,500 759

Total Potential R 9,520,860 R 114,250,320 R 18,250 7,289

Area warranted GLA

Outdoor

Wine & Dine

Hardware / DIY

Entertainment

Speciality

Home

Furniture & Appliances

Services

Food & Groceries

CFTA

Main CategorySecondary Catchment

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Retail Potential Estimate (RPE) – Growth potential


• Through analysing historical growth we anticipate that the demand in the market within the catchment will grow each year with 4,416 m² retail space. This increased from 2005 due to a higher growth rate.

Total Exp / month Total Exp / yearAve Trading Density (Rand

/ m² selling per year) Area Potential GLA

R 2,207,900 R 26,494,800 R 30,000 1,104

R 742,930 R 8,915,160 R 18,000 619

R 416,720 R 5,000,640 R 25,000 250

R 512,150 R 6,145,800 R 20,000 384

R 465,320 R 5,583,840 R 16,000 436

R 301,910 R 3,622,920 R 18,000 252

R 331,120 R 3,973,440 R 13,000 382

R 417,350 R 5,008,200 R 25,000 250

R 284,850 R 3,418,200 R 12,000 356

R 140,360 R 1,684,320 R 5,500 383

Total Potential R 5,820,610 R 69,847,320 R 18,250 4,416

Area warranted GLA

Services

Food & Groceries

CFTA

Main Category

Speciality

Home

Furniture & Appliances

Outdoor

Wine & Dine

Hardware / DIY

Entertainment

4,416 Annual additional GLA potential m²

- 5 year average growth factor- Given current housing demand persists- Note that this does not take market share growth into account

A - B Inc HSE478New Households per annum

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Retail Potential Estimate (RPE)


Primary Catchment Area Potential (2007) = 61,901 m²

Secondary Catchment Area Potential (2007) = 7,289 m² ------------------Total justified GLA = 69,190 m²

MARKET SHARE (2007) = 22% The market share the centre should achieve to justify 20,000m² GLA

Total Proposed Centre Size = 20,000 m²

Inflow @ 25% = 5,000 m²From outside the catchment as well as commercial support (such as lodges and hotels)

-------------------GLA to be justified by the demographics = 15,000 m²

• The centre currently (at 9,100m²) captures only 13% of the market.• A centre of 20,000 m² GLA will currently have to capture 22% of the market, which is viable, given the quality of the site.• The lower market share (as the area grows) required to justify a centre of 20,000 m² by 2010 effectively increase the feasibility of an extension of the centre.

Growth Potential by 2010 = 13,248 m²Assuming developments occur as proposed (478 new households per year)

MARKET SHARE (2010) = 18% The market share the centre should achieve to justify 20,000m² GLA

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Executive Summary


• Xanadu shopping centre forms part of the Xanadu Eco Park development, located on the R511 leading into the town of Hartbeespoortdam.• Xanadu Eco Park consists of the mentioned shopping centre, adjacent Planet Fitness centre, Netcare hospital, a private school and ± 1,000 largely permanent A+ income residential units.• Visibility of the site is rated as excellent given the main road location and elevated nature of the site. The site is furthermore favorably located to intercept passing trade leading into the town from Pretoria & Johannesburg. The traffic light on the R511 assist with traffic calming and allow for safe ingress and egress.• Existing retail around the dam consist mainly of six convenience type centres, including the new Sediba Mall with Superspar as anchor. • High levels of outflow exist to larger shopping centres in Pretoria and Johannesburg, especially in retail categories such as Fashion and Houseware.• The Hartbeespoortdam-area is one of the most rapidly developing towns in South Africa and growing at ± 9% per annum. The bulk of the new residential developments are A & B income units and more and more people are permanently staying at the dam. This also increase the need for a larger shopping centre.• Based on the growth from 2002 – 2007, we anticipate a short term projection of ± 478 new A & B income residential units added to the catchment area per annum (2002 - 2004: ±440 residential units added per annum – increased growth rate).• The dam is also a very popular holiday / weekend destination and recent traffic counts showed a 50% increase (inflow) in vehicular traffic over weekends. There is also anticipated commercial support from surrounding farms, lodges and other businesses.• On average it takes a newly developed centre time to achieve maturity. This is due to established shopping patterns that need to be changed. This factor increases the importance of effective marketing, from both tenants and landlords, to establish the centre (and every individual shop) in the area. • Taking existing residential potential and the high level of inflow into consideration, we are of the opinion that a shopping centre of 20,000 m² GLA is currently justified with an achievable 22% market share. (In 2004, a centre of this size would have to achieve 36% market share – indication of the high growth). A good tenant mix is vital in achieving this.• When applying capture rates from our previous project with the 2007 demographics, a centre of closer to 30,000 m² GLA can be justified. The site or rights do not permit for a centre of this size; however, this is indicative of the growing potential in the market. Ultimately, this is a very good site in a fast growing area with room for future growth.

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Fernridge Consulting (Pty) Ltd26th Floor209 Smit Street P.O. Box 31266Braamfontein BraamfonteinJohannesburg 2017South Africa South Africa

Fax: +27 11 339 1833

www.fernridge.co.za

CV & Contact Details

Copyright 2007: Fernridge ConsultingCopyright 2007: Fernridge Consulting

Sybrand StraussDirector: Property Development & International

Tel: +27 11 712 1720Mobile: +27 82 330 5168e-mail: [email protected]

Andre AnnandaleManager: Property Development

Tel: +27 11 712 1714Mobile: +27 82 776 6353e-mail: [email protected]

Fernridge Consulting (Pty) Ltd is a retail optimization consultancy that was founded in 2002. We are based in Johannesburg, South Africa and specialize in spatial retail analysis using GIS (Geographic Information Systems) technology, the latest demographic data and information from significant retailers. We are part of the UCS Group, a publicly listed IT company.

We are the undisputed leader in this field in South Africa with ± 12 shopping centre development / revamp studies per month conducted in all nine South African provinces, as well as neighboring countries (Namibia, Botswana, Swaziland, Lesotho, Mozambique), other African countries (Zambia, Ghana), and abroad (India, Mauritius). We offer this service to banks, landlords, property managers, corporate and private investors and developers.

We also assist some of the leading retail groups in South Africa in their store expansion and rationalization strategies, location analyses etc. Our clients include, among others: Spar, Woolworths, McDonald’s, Nando’s, Mr Price, Supergroup, Massmart, Cashbuild, Ster Kinekor, Virgin Active, Clicks, MTN etc.

This is an objective, independent report with the sole aim of limiting risk for our client and optimize development potential.

http://www.fernridge.co.za/

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Xanadu X-ing, North West May 2007 Retail study Update: Demographics & Retail Potential Note: This project should be regarded as confidential as it contains.

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