A.Montani; COSMO-LEPS status, verification, … X COSMO meeting - Cracow - 15-19 September 2008 COSMO LEPS system: status, verification, applications Andrea Montani , C. Marsigli, T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy F. Fundel, A. Walser, M. A. Liniger, C. Appenzeller Meteoswiss X General COSMO meeting Cracow, 15-19 September 2008
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X General COSMO meeting Cracow, 15-19 September 2008
COSMO LEPS system: status, verification, applications Andrea Montani , C. Marsigli, T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM, Bologna , Italy F. Fundel, A. Walser, M. A. Liniger, C. Appenzeller Meteoswiss. X General COSMO meeting Cracow, 15-19 September 2008. Introduction Present status and recent upgrades - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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• What is it?It is a Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS),
based on COSMO-model and implemented within COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling, which includes Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Romania, Switzerland).
• Why?It was developed to combine the advantages of global-
model ensembles with the high-resolution details gained by the LAMs, so as to identify the possible occurrence of severe and localised weather events (heavy rainfall, strong winds, temperature anomalies, snowfall, …)
generation of COSMO-LEPS to improve the Late-Short (48hr) to Early-Medium (132hr) range forecast of
Recent updatesChanges to the operational suite on 1 December 2007:Changes to the operational suite on 1 December 2007:• new model version (COSMO-LM 4.0);• new numerics (Runge-Kutta scheme); • use of multi-layer soil model;• new perturbations introduced relative to the maximal turbulent length scale (tur_len) and
to the length scale of thermal surface patterns (pat_len) to increase spread and maintain skill.
Old system and new system ran in parallel for 52 days (October and November 2007);
Larger T2m spread in new system for all forecast ranges;
Comparable skill (in terms of T2m root-mean-square error) of the two systems.
COSMO-LEPS reforecasts (v 4.0)Motivations:• COSMO-LEPS is often not reliable; • probabilities might be wrong! need
for calibration
Setup• Period of 30 years (1971-2000)• 1 deterministic run of COSMO-LEPS• fc+90h, 12:00 initial time (every 3rd
day)• ERA40 as initial/boundary conditions.• Calculated and archived at ECMWF• Convect. scheme = Tiedtke/Kain-Fritsch• Random physics (turlen & patlen)
Limitations• New climatology needed with each
model version change• Needs time and is costly (~ 2000
BSSD 24h precipitation BSSD is written as 1-BS/(BSref +D). Useful forecast systems if BSSD > 0. BS measures the mean squared difference between fcst and obs in
probability space. Equivalent to MSE for deterministic forecast.
• Since November 2002, COSMO-LEPS system has been running on a daily basis.
• Since June 2008, COSMO-LEPS data are disseminated to JRC for the use in the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) as input to the flood forecasting system over the major European basins ==> success for COSMO both from a scientific and a visibility point of view.
• COSMO-LEPS products routinely used in met-ops rooms across COSMO community as well as in research Projects (e.g. COPS, D-PHASE, PREVIEW: see the poster).
increase in ROC area scores and reduction in outliers percentages; positive impact of increasing the population from 5 to 10 members (June
2004); some deficiency in the skill of the system can be identified after the system
upgrades occurred on February 2006 (from 10 to 16 members; from 32 to 40 model levels), BUT
scores are encouraging throughout DPHASE Operations Period; system upgrades of Dec07 (RK + multi-layer + new perturbations)
brought small but positive impact.
Time-series verification scores indicate the following trends:
the grid of cosmoleps_7 would be almost identical to that of COSMO-EU, this making easier and cleaner the use of initial fields provided by DWD (e.g. soil moisture analysis).
Motivations: Provide a more detailed description of
mesoscale processes by incresing the horizontal resolution.
Do not lose a “reasonable advantage” against ECMWF EPS, which will go to x=25 km during 2009.
“Keep the pace” with deterministic model (x~ 2-3 km): if the gap in resolutions between deterministic and probabilistic systems is too large, the two systems do not support each other and go for different solutions (that is, they forecast different weather!).from 10 to 7 km (plus small domain extensions) does not
Recent updatesChanges to the operational suite on 1 December 2007:Changes to the operational suite on 1 December 2007:• new model version (COSMO-LM 4.0);• new numerics (Runge-Kutta scheme); • use of multi-layer soil model;• new perturbations introduced relative to the maximal turbulent length scale (tur_len) and
to the length scale of thermal surface patterns (pat_len) to increase spread and maintain skill.
Old system and new system ran in parallel for 52 days (October and November 2007);
Larger T2m spread in new system for all forecast ranges;
Comparable skill (in terms of T2m root-mean-square error) of the two systems.
• COSMO-LEPS system runs on a daily basis since November 2002 and it has become a “member-state time-critical application” at ECMWF ( partial involvement of ECMWF operators in the suite management).
• Time series scores identify positive trends in the performance of the system:• increase in ROC area scores and reduction in outliers percentages;• positive impact of increasing the population from 5 to 10 members (June
2004);• some deficiency in the skill of the system identified after the system
upgrades occurred on February 2006 (from 10 to 16 members; from 32 to 40 model levels + EPS upgrade!!!) need of further investigation.
• High-resolution verification shows better scores of COSMO-LEPS with respect to EPS in forecasting precipitation maxima within boxes.• No clear impact of the weighting procedure as regards precipitation, BUT COSMO-LEPS ensemble mean for 2m temperature has better skill (lower standard deviation to observations) with weighting the ensemble members according to cluster populations compared to the mean with unweighted members.
A sort of BSS “cumulated” over all thresholds. BSS is written as 1-BS/BSref. Sample climate is the reference system. BS measures the mean squared difference between forecast and observation in probability space.
Useful forecast system, if RPSS > 0.
RPSS the improvement of
the system performance is detectable for all forecast ranges along the years;
the poor performance of the system in summer 2006 is confirmed;
RPSS always positive throughout 2007 and especially high during DOP.
A sort of BSS “cumulated” over all thresholds. BSS is written as 1-BS/BSref. Sample climate is the reference system. BS measures the mean squared difference between forecast and observation in probability space.
Useful forecast system, if RPSS > 0.
RPSS the improvement of
the system performance is detectable for all forecast ranges along the years;
the poor performance of the system in summer 2006 is confirmed;
RPSS always positive throughout 2007 and especially high during DOP.