WYOMING DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC AND REVENUE TRENDS AND OUTLOOK Wenlin Liu, Chief Economist Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming Economic Roundtable Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Nov 12, 2020 1
WYOMING DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC AND REVENUE TRENDS AND OUTLOOK
Wenlin Liu, Chief Economist
Economic Analysis Division
State of Wyoming
Economic Roundtable Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Nov 12, 2020
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Mining - 1st
Construction – 1st
Government – 3rd
Manufacturing – 48th
Prof. & Bus. Svcs. – 51st
Educ. & Health Svcs. – 51st
Wyoming = 412,765U.S. = 203,809,500
Employment by Industry for U.S. and Wyoming: 2019(Includes: full and part-time wage and salary jobs, and proprietors employment)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Rank of Wyoming’s industry share in the U.S.:
2By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
Gross Domestic Product for U.S. and Wyoming: 2019 by Industry
Note: GDP is often referred to as its "value added", is equal to its gross output (sales or receipts and other operating income, plus inventory change) minus its intermediate inputs (consumption of goods and services purchased from other industries or imported).
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis3By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
• Robust Supply – tech (fracking)
Source: Natural Gas Intelligence4
By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
5
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
325,000
350,000
375,000
400,000
425,000
450,000
475,000
500,000
525,000
550,000
575,000
600,000Net M
igrationPopu
latio
n
Net Migration = In-migration - Outmigration
Wyoming Population and Net Migration: 1970 to 2019
Net Migration* Population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis DivisionSource: U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
6By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
Source: Wyoming Department of Health
Number of Births and Deaths in Wyoming: 1970 to 2019
Births Deaths
7By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
Non‐Agr Wage and Salary Employment for Wyoming and U.S.(in thousands of jobs)
Wyoming (L) U.S. (R)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's
Job growth rate: 2006=5.2%, 2007=4.3%, 2008=3.2%
8By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
9By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
10
Monthly Unemployment Rate for the U.S. and Wyoming: Jan 2005 – Sept 2020
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Jan2005
Jan2006
Jan2007
Jan2008
Jan2009
Jan2010
Jan2011
Jan2012
Jan2013
Jan2014
Jan2015
Jan2016
Jan2017
Jan2018
Jan2019
Jan2020
U.S. WY
By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
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Total Nonfarm Employment (in thousands) for the U.S. and Wyoming: Jan 2005 – Sept 2020
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
150,000
155,000
160,000
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
Jan2005
Jan2006
Jan2007
Jan2008
Jan2009
Jan2010
Jan2011
Jan2012
Jan2013
Jan2014
Jan2015
Jan2016
Jan2017
Jan2018
Jan2019
Jan2020
US (R) WY (L)
By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
12
Mining Employment for the U.S. and Wyoming: Jan 2000 – Sept 2020
300,000
360,000
420,000
480,000
540,000
600,000
660,000
720,000
780,000
840,000
900,000
960,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
Jan2000
Jan2001
Jan2002
Jan2003
Jan2004
Jan2005
Jan2006
Jan2007
Jan2008
Jan2009
Jan2010
Jan2011
Jan2012
Jan2013
Jan2014
Jan2015
Jan2016
Jan2017
Jan2018
Jan2019
Jan2020
US (R) WY (L)
By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
13Source: Baker Hughes By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
Change of Employment (%) by Industry in Wyoming:Sept 2019 – Sept 2020
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‐1.3%‐8.2%
10.7%‐9.8%
‐15.7%0.3%
‐9.3%‐4.5%
‐14.7%0.0%
4.9%‐13.1%
2.0%0.0%
‐26.7%‐5.6%
Local GovtState Govt
Federal GovtOther Services
Leisure & HospitalityPrivate Education & Health
Prof. & Bus. ServicesFinancial Activities
InformationTransp. & Utilities
Retail TradeWholesale TradeManufacturingConstruction
MiningTotal
State Government includes higher educationLocal Government includes K‐12 education and public hospitals
By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
Change of Employment (Number) by Industry in Wyoming:Sept 2019 – Sept 2020
15
‐600‐1,200
800‐1,600
‐5,800100
‐1,800‐500‐500
01,400
‐1,100200
0‐5,500
Local GovtState Govt
Federal GovtOther Services
Leisure & HospitalityPrivate Education & Health
Prof. & Bus. ServicesFinancial Activities
InformationTransp. & Utilities
Retail TradeWholesale TradeManufacturingConstruction
Mining
Total = ‐16,100
State Government includes higher educationLocal Government includes K‐12 education and public hospitals
By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
16By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
17By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
Crude oil
Natural Gas
18By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
19By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
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Percent of Total Mineral Valuation:1981 = 72%1998 = 49%2008 = 70%2020 = 34%
By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
21By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
22
‐50.0
‐40.0
‐30.0
‐20.0
‐10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20
By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
23By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
24By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
25By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
26By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
27By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
28By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
Gap = 15,000
29By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
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120,024 145,553 135,525 128,873 135,402 134,172 126,540
36,806
68,96041,386 49,928 56,429 49,784 55,443
78,422
141,730148,495 138,619
144,615 149,968 145,06666,960
76,13980,987 118,669
157,090 140,838 134,624
30,204
37,17547,195
57,693
70,090 104,520 135,564
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Wyoming Population by Age Group
65 & over
45 - 64
25 - 44
18 - 24
< 18
Source: population from 1970 to 2010 was from U.S. Census Bureau's decennial census, population for 2020 and 2030 were projections from Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
• During the worst period of COVID‐19 ‐ the 2nd quarter, Wyoming’s overall economic decline somewhat faired better than the U.S. average because our mitigation measures were less as restrictive though this downturn is still the worst since the oil bust in the mid‐1980s.
• Due to its pivotal role in WY’s economy, the plunge of the energy market is devastating the state’s economy and revenue as the oil & gas rigs dropped 90% and coal production is contracting over 25% from the previous year. The slow recovery of oil prices will also hinder our mineral development in the near future.
• Many other industries such as construction, transportation, professional and financial services will be affected due to their chain reaction with the mining industry.
• Structural budget deficits for both state government operation and K12 education are severe, and investment income is challenging due to low interest environment and high stock valuation.
• Federal policy ramification from election such as fracking or new lease on Fed land (70%, 80%, 90%).• Quite a few wind energy projects are under construction – led by Chokecherry and Sierra Madre. By
2026, it is expected to become the largest wind farm in the United States with 2,000 turbines. It contributes large sales taxes.
• Unemployment rate will be relatively low: rural state and large number of baby boomers who are leaving labor force.
• Rainy day fund of $1.5 billion (100% of GF) – the largest in the country. • Whether or not another round of stimulus will greatly impact the resilient retail & motor vehicle sales
and housing market, as well as sales tax revenue.31By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division
Economic Analysis Division – EAD“Wyoming’s Source for Business and Economic Information”
http://eadiv.state.wy.us
ai‐ead‐[email protected]
(307) 777‐7504
THANK YOU!
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