©2003 PJM www.pjm.com Factors Contributing to Wholesale Electricity Prices Howard J. Haas Market Monitoring Unit November 30, 2006
Www.pjm.com ©2003 PJM Factors Contributing to Wholesale Electricity Prices Howard J. Haas Market Monitoring Unit November 30, 2006.
Dec 27, 2015
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
©2003 PJM
www.pjm.com
Factors Contributing to Wholesale Electricity Prices
Howard J. HaasMarket Monitoring UnitNovember 30, 2006
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 2
Wholesale Electricity is a Commodity
• Prices a function of the interaction of supply and demand via least cost security constrained dispatch– Prices set by marginal resources– Can have multiple marginal units– Multiple concurrent market clearing prices
• Unique:– It is not generally storable– Short-term demand is inelastic– Instantaneous market where Supply must equal Demand
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 3
Figure 2-1 - Average PJM aggregate supply curves: Summers 2004 and 2005
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 4
Summer 2006 7-27-06
7-27-06 RT Zonal LMP
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
_01 _02 _03 _04 _05 _06 _07 _08 _09 _10 _11 _12 _13 _14 _15 _16 _17 _18 _19 _20 _21 _22 _23 _24
Hour Ending
LM
P
AECO ZONE_LMP
AEP ZONE_LMP
APS ZONE_LMP
BGE ZONE_LMP
COMED ZONE_LMP
DAY ZONE_LMP
DOM ZONE_LMP
DPL ZONE_LMP
DUQ ZONE_LMP
JCPL ZONE_LMP
METED ZONE_LMP
PECO ZONE_LMP
PENELEC ZONE_LMP
PEPCO ZONE_LMP
PPL ZONE_LMP
PSEG ZONE_LMP
RECO ZONE_LMP
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 5
Fall 2006: 10-26-06
10-26-06 RT Zonal LMP
0
50
100
150
200
250
_01 _02 _03 _04 _05 _06 _07 _08 _09 _10 _11 _12 _13 _14 _15 _16 _17 _18 _19 _20 _21 _22 _23 _24
Hour Ending
LM
P
AECO ZONE_LMP
AEP ZONE_LMP
APS ZONE_LMP
BGE ZONE_LMP
COMED ZONE_LMP
DAY ZONE_LMP
DOM ZONE_LMP
DPL ZONE_LMP
DUQ ZONE_LMP
JCPL ZONE_LMP
METED ZONE_LMP
PECO ZONE_LMP
PENELEC ZONE_LMP
PEPCO ZONE_LMP
PPL ZONE_LMP
PSEG ZONE_LMP
RECO ZONE_LMP
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 6
Figure 7-1 - Annual average zonal LMP differences (Reference to Western Hub): Calendar years 2002 to 2005
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 7
Figure 2-13 - Monthly load-weighted, average LMP: Calendar years 1999 through 2005
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 8
Factors contributing to wholesale price
• Inputs to the marginal cost of generation– Fuel cost
• 80 to 90%
– Emission allowance costs• Seasonal effects
– VOM– Opportunity costs
Variables that affect the system “solution”• Load• Constraints• Outages
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 9
Delivered Fuel Prices
Delivered Fuel Prices per MBtu
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
1/1
/1999
5/1
/1999
9/1
/1999
1/1
/2000
5/1
/2000
9/1
/2000
1/1
/2001
5/1
/2001
9/1
/2001
1/1
/2002
5/1
/2002
9/1
/2002
1/1
/2003
5/1
/2003
9/1
/2003
1/1
/2004
5/1
/2004
9/1
/2004
1/1
/2005
5/1
/2005
9/1
/2005
1/1
/2006
5/1
/2006
9/1
/2006
LIGHT_OIL_DEL_DOL_MBTU
JET_OIL_DEL_DOL_MBTU
BIT_1p5_DEL_DOL_MBTU
PRB_DEL_DOL_MBTU
GAS_DEL_DOL_MBTU
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 10
Fuel Costs %
Generic Unit Estimated Fuel and Cost Offers
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
1-Jan-99
2-Jul-99
31-Dec-9930-Jun-0029-Dec-0029-Jun-0128-Dec-0128-Jun-0227-Dec-0227-Jun-0326-Dec-0325-Jun-0424-Dec-0424-Jun-0523-Dec-0523-Jun-06
date
%F
uel
of
To
tal O
ffer
CT % Fuel CC % Fuel CP % Fuel
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 11
Hypothetical Fuel Cost Based Offers (Gas and Coal based)
Estimated Cost Based Offers
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.001/
1/19
99
5/1/
1999
9/1/
1999
1/1/
2000
5/1/
2000
9/1/
2000
1/1/
2001
5/1/
2001
9/1/
2001
1/1/
2002
5/1/
2002
9/1/
2002
1/1/
2003
5/1/
2003
9/1/
2003
1/1/
2004
5/1/
2004
9/1/
2004
1/1/
2005
5/1/
2005
9/1/
2005
1/1/
2006
5/1/
2006
9/1/
2006
CT_COST_OFFER
CC_COST_OFFER
CP_COST_OFFER
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 12
Figure 2-14 - Spot coal and natural gas price comparison: Calendar years 2004 through 2005
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 13
Difference in cost: Gas-fired CT and gas-fired CC
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 14
Figure 3-4 - PJM capacity (By fuel source): At December 31, 2005
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 15
Figure 3-5 - PJM generation [By fuel source (In GWh)]: Calendar year 2005
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 16
Table 2-18 - Type of fuel used by marginal units: Calendar years 2001 to 2005
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 17
Table 2-35 - PJM fuel-cost-adjusted, load-weighted LMP (Dollars per MWh): Year-over-year method
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 18
Table 2-34 - PJM load-weighted, average LMP (Dollars per MWh): Calendar years 1998 through 2005
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 19
Table 2-4 - Actual PJM footprint summer peak loads: From 1999 to 2005
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 20
Table 2-2 - Actual 2005 summer peak demand and calculated Phase 3, 4 and 5 coincident summer peak
demand: For 2001 through 2004
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 21
Figure 2-17 - Price duration curves for the PJM Real-Time Energy Market: Calendar years 2001 through 2005
©2006 PJMwww.pjm.com 22
Figure 7-5 - Regional constraints and congestion-event hours (By facility): Calendar years 2002 to 2005
Related Documents
