www.pewforum.org Latinos and the 2012 Elections Boisi Center for Religion & American Public Life Boston College November 1, 2012 Luis Lugo, Director Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life Washington, D.C.
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Feb 24, 2016
Latinos and the 2012 Elections Boisi Center for Religion & American Public Life Boston College November 1, 2012 Luis Lugo, Director Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life Washington, D.C. www.pewforum.org. Eligible Voters as a Share of Group’s Population: 2012. I. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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www.pewforum.org
Latinos and the 2012 Elections
Boisi Center for Religion & American Public Life
Boston CollegeNovember 1, 2012Luis Lugo, Director
Pew Forum on Religion & Public LifeWashington, D.C.
Eligible Voters as a Share of Group’s Population:
2012
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from the March 2012 CPS
White Black Asian Hispanic
78.368.8
54.144.8
1.63.5
24
21.3
20.1 27.7 21.933.9
Voting eligible Non-citizen Under 18
2
I
Hispanic Eligible Voter and Registered Voter Trends
4.2 4.6 4.5 5.2 5.56.6 6.8 7.5 7.7
9.3 9.311.6 11
7.5 7.7 8.1 8.310.3 11.2
12.4 13.214.5
16.117.3
19.521.3
23.7
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
No. of Registered Voters
(millions)
Source: For 1988 through 2010, Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the Current Population Survey November Supplements; for 2012, Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the August Current Population Survey.
No. of Eligible Voters(millions)
3
Voter Turnout Rates in Presidential Elections
66
65
50
47
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
White, non-Hispanics
Black, non-Hispanics
Latinos
Asian, non-Hispanics
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from CPS November Supplements, various years
% of U.S. citizens ages 18 and older who voted
4
Latinos, Religion and the Presidential Vote
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2008; 2004 Exit Poll data
*In the 2004 exit poll there was some debate about the results of national exit poll data for Hispanics. Analyses of state-by-state exit poll data and CPS data suggest Bush’s share of the Hispanic vote was closer to 40% than 44%.
Note: In the 2008 data the religion question was asked somewhat differently than the current approach (“What is your religion—Catholic, Evangelical Christian, Protestant, or something else?” with no born-again follow up). Those who responded “don’t know” or refused to respond are excluded.
5
Kerry Bush Other Obama McCain Other
% % % % % %
Latinos 53 44* 3 74 22 4
Catholic 58 39 3 81 16 3
Protestant 40 58 1 62 34 4
Evangelical 29 69 2 60 36 4
2004 2008
II
Party Affiliation among Latino Registered Voters
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, various years.
% among registered voters
6
1999 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012
58 56 5549
57
65 6267 70
25 25 28 2823 26 25
20 22
Democrats
Republicans
Party Affiliation by Religion
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2012.7
Democrat/Lean Democrat
Republican/Lean Republican
Independent/Other/DK/Ref N
Registered Voters % % %U.S. Latinos 70 22 9=100 903 Protestant 56 31 13=100 291 Evangelical 52 36 13=100 204 Catholic 71 21 7=100 401 Unaffiliated 81 10 9=100 150
Eligible VotersU.S. Latinos 69 18 13=100 1,241 Protestant 59 26 15=100 402 Evangelical 52 33 15=100 270 Catholic 70 18 12=100 523 Unaffiliated 75 11 14=100 224
Latino Vote Preference by Religion
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2012.
0
20
40
60
80
100
7382
50
19
7
39
Obama Romney
%
% who would vote or lean toward voting for each candidate if election were held today
8
Latinos and Same-Sex Marriage
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2012. General public figures from aggregated polls conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press in 2012. Whites are non-Hispanic only.
Favor Oppose DK N% % %
All Latinos 52 34 13=100 1,765Catholic 54 31 15=100 798Protestant 31 58 11=100 551 Evangelical 25 66 9=100 389 Mainline 46 37 17=100 156Unaffiliated 71 18 11=100 292
U.S. general public 48 44 9=100 6,500Catholic 53 37 9=100 1391 White Catholic 53 38 8=100 940Protestant 33 58 9=100 3,406 White evangelical 19 76 5=100 1,351 White mainline 52 37 11=100 1,146Unaffiliated 73 20 7=100 1,064
Do you favor or oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally?
9
Latino Views on Abortion
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2011 and Pew Research Center for People & the Press, October 2011.
Should be legal in all/most cases
Should be illegal in all/most cases
% %All Hispanics 43 51Catholic 42 52
Protestant 32 65
Evangelical 28 70Unaffiliated 62 32
General population 54 41Catholic 50 44
Protestant 48 47
White evangelical 34 60Unaffiliated 73 22
10
Source: National Survey of Latinos, General public comparison from October 2011 Survey by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. 11
Smaller Bigger Depends DK/Ref N% % % %
All Hispanics 19 75 2 4=100 1,220Catholic 14 80 2 5=100 792Protestant 25 71 * 4=100 223 Evangelical 20 76 1 3=100 161Unaffiliated 24 71 2 3=100 140
U.S. GP 48 41 2 8=100 2,410Catholic 48 45 1 6=100 532 White Catholic 61 31 1 6=100 376Protestant 52 37 2 9=100 1,263 White Evangelical 71 20 2 6=100 470 White Mainline 58 30 2 10=100 467 Black Prot 17 72 2 10=100 179Unaffiliated 41 45 4 10=100 412
If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer
services, or a bigger government providing more services?
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