www.ipums.org/internation al 1 Calibrating census microdata Calibrating census microdata against a gold standard against a gold standard (employment survey): women in (employment survey): women in the workforce, the workforce, Mexico 1970, 1990 and 2000 Mexico 1970, 1990 and 2000 * * * * * * Robert McCaa, Rodolfo Gutierrez and Robert McCaa, Rodolfo Gutierrez and Gabriela Vasquez, Minnesota Population Gabriela Vasquez, Minnesota Population Center Center www.ipums.org/international www.ipums.org/international Calibrate, v. 1864. a. Calibrate, v. 1864. a. trans. trans. ...to graduate a gauge of ...to graduate a gauge of any kind any kind with allowance for its with allowance for its irregularities. irregularities. The Oxford English Dictionary The Oxford English Dictionary Online Online (Oxford: Clarendon Press, (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 2001) 2001)
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Calibrating census microdata Calibrating census microdata against a gold standard against a gold standard (employment survey): women (employment survey): women in the workforce, in the workforce, Mexico 1970, 1990 and 2000Mexico 1970, 1990 and 2000 * * * * * *Robert McCaa, Rodolfo Gutierrez and Robert McCaa, Rodolfo Gutierrez and Gabriela Vasquez, Minnesota Population Gabriela Vasquez, Minnesota Population Center Center www.ipums.org/internationalwww.ipums.org/internationalCalibrate, v. 1864. a. Calibrate, v. 1864. a. trans.trans.
...to graduate a gauge of any kind ...to graduate a gauge of any kind with allowance for its irregularities.with allowance for its irregularities.
The Oxford English Dictionary OnlineThe Oxford English Dictionary Online (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 2001)(Oxford: Clarendon Press, 2001)
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IPUMSIPUMSi i
Integrated Public Use Series Integrated Public Use Series InternationalInternational
Minnesota Population CenterMinnesota Population CenterUniversity of MinnesotaUniversity of MinnesotaPrincipal investigators:Principal investigators:
historians:historians: Steven Ruggles, director MPC Steven Ruggles, director MPC
Robert McCaa, Matt SobekRobert McCaa, Matt Sobekdemographers:demographers:
Deborah Levison, Miriam King Deborah Levison, Miriam Kingwww.ipums.org/internationalwww.ipums.org/international
www.ipums.org/international 3
IPUMSIPUMSii goals goals » 1. 1. InventoryInventory the world’s census microdata the world’s census microdata
» 2. 2. PreservePreserve endangered microdata and metadata endangered microdata and metadataa. a. contract preservation with repositoriescontract preservation with repositoriesb. b. archive validated copiesarchive validated copies
* * ** * *» 3. 3. IntegrateIntegrate census microdata and metadata census microdata and metadata
of selected countries on all continentsof selected countries on all continentsusing UN, ECE, and other standardsusing UN, ECE, and other standards
» 4. 4. DisseminateDisseminate resulting database without charge resulting database without charge
with full access to all who agree to non-with full access to all who agree to non-disclosuredisclosure
» 1. 1. RespectRespect absolute anonymity absolute anonymity» 2. 2. PreservePreserve all original data, except adjustments all original data, except adjustments
to insure confidentiality (top codes blurrings, to insure confidentiality (top codes blurrings, masking, re-ordering, etc.)masking, re-ordering, etc.)
» 3. 3. HarmonizeHarmonize (integrate) codes for countries (integrate) codes for countries using international standards.using international standards.
census microdata census microdata vs. employment survey vs. employment survey
Employment surveys: Employment surveys: date from the 80s; many probing questions date from the 80s; many probing questions finely tuned instrument collected by trained finely tuned instrument collected by trained interviewersinterviewersurban--lack national coverageurban--lack national coverage
Census microdata: Census microdata: strength: national coverage back to 1960 strength: national coverage back to 1960 weakness: untrained interviewers, one questionweakness: untrained interviewers, one questionomits many working women, particularly informal omits many working women, particularly informal workersworkers
Purpose of paper: Purpose of paper: calibrate census microdata w/ employment calibrate census microdata w/ employment
surveyssurveys
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Table 1. Selected microdata Table 1. Selected microdata samples of Mexico, 1960 - 2000 samples of Mexico, 1960 - 2000
YearYear Type Type Sample SizeSample SizeDensity (%)Density (%)
19601960** Census Census 502,702502,702 1.51.5
19701970** Census Census 480,265480,265 1.01.0
19801980 Census Census No sample available due to No sample available due to earthquake damage earthquake damage
Married (all forms)Married (all forms) 51.951.9 52.9 52.9 35.135.1 34.034.0
Not in unionNot in union 48.148.1 47.1 47.1 48.948.9
47.347.3
Table X. Females 2000: Urban Table X. Females 2000: Urban (same 16 cities as in ENEU 1990) (same 16 cities as in ENEU 1990)
(table not in paper)(table not in paper)
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Female labor force participationFemale labor force participationENEU (indicator) vs. CensusENEU (indicator) vs. Census
Variable B S.E. Wald df Sig R Exp(B)
1990: -.2212 .0135 267.2291 1 .0000 -.0412 .8015
2000: .0860 .0067 163.1781 1 .0000 .0100 1.0898Model source effect taking into account age, marital status and education.Model source effect taking into account age, marital status and education.
Table Y. Logistic Regression: Table Y. Logistic Regression: Source Source (Females 1990, 2000; same 16 cities as (Females 1990, 2000; same 16 cities as
in ENEU 1990)in ENEU 1990) (table not in paper)(table not in paper)
InterpretationInterpretationIf for both sources weights are correct and slight If for both sources weights are correct and slight structural differences are taken into account:structural differences are taken into account:
1990 census under-reported 20% of FLFP.1990 census under-reported 20% of FLFP.
2000 census over-reports FLFP by 9%.2000 census over-reports FLFP by 9%.
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LFP by sex and marital statusLFP by sex and marital statusMexico 1990 and 2000 (national figures)Mexico 1990 and 2000 (national figures)
The iron grip of m arriage on working for pay is w eakeningMarriage dam pens partic ipation for fem ales in c ontras t to m ales
F ig . 1 . D e ta ile d lab o r fo rc e ra te s s ta tus : M e x ic o , 1 9 9 0 , 2 0 0 0Married inc ludes religious or consensual as w ell as legal unions
R a t e s o f m a r ried w o m e n w e re les s th a n h a lf th o s e o f s in g le , w id ow e d , s e p a ra t e d o r d iv o rc e d
pe
rce
nt
F em ales : 1990age
12 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sing le
M ar r ied
W idSe pD v
T h e g ap b e twe e n m a rr ie d w o m en a n d o th e rs s h ra n k , bu t t h e d if fe re n c e re m a in s s u b s ta n t ia l
F em ales : 2000age
12 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sing le
M ar r ied
W idSe pD v
R a te s o f m a rr ie d m a le s a re m a rk e d ly h ig he r t h a n f o r o t h e rs
pe
rce
nt
M ales : 1990age
12 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sing le
M ar r iedW idSe pD v
T h e g a p n a r ro w e d s l ig h t ly ,p a r t ic u la rly f o r t h e w id o w e d , s e p a ra te d a nd d iv o rc e d
Males : 2000age
12 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sing le
M ar r iedW idSe pD v
FemaleFemaless
MalesMales19901990 20002000
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Bigges t change is for w om en w ith les s than 7 years of s choolingLittle = < 6 years ; P rim ary = 6-8; Middle = 9; Higher = 9+ years
Fig. 2. Schooling and Marriage strongly influence female work ratesMarried inc ludes all form s of unions
F ew wit h les s t han 7 y ea rs o f s c hooling wo rk ed fo r pay
pe
rce
nt
1990: Not C urrently Marr iedage
12 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
0
20
40
60
80
100
litt le
prim ary
m idd le
h igher
G rea t es t inc reas es a re fo r t hos e wit h les s than 7 y ea rs o f s c hoo ling
2000: Not C urrently Marr iedage
12 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
0
20
40
60
80
100
litt le
prim arym idd le
h igher
pe
rce
nt
1990: Marr iedage
12 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
0
20
40
60
80
100
litt leprim ary
m idd le
h igher
2000: Marr iedage
12 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
0
20
40
60
80
100
litt leprim arym idd le
h igher
Marriage and education strongly Marriage and education strongly affect FLFP affect FLFP (Mexico 1990 and 2000, national (Mexico 1990 and 2000, national
figures)figures)
19901990 20002000MarriedMarried
NotNot
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Figure 3. Female labor force participation rates by ageUnited States, 1880-1990 and Mexico, 1970, 1990, 2000
One of the great social transformations of the twentieth centuryMarried women: USA 1880-1990; Mexico 1970, 1990, 2000
pe
rce
nt
Fig. 3a. Labor force participation rate: Married womenedad
16 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
0
20
40
60
80
100
USA1880
USA1910USA1940
USA1970
USA1990
pe
rce
nt
edad
16 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mex1970
pe
rce
nt
edad
16 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mex1990
pe
rce
nt
edad
16 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mex2000
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ConclusionsConclusions
Mexican census microdata may be more Mexican census microdata may be more informative, even about FLFP, than researchers informative, even about FLFP, than researchers thinkthink
Mexican census microdata on FLFP display Mexican census microdata on FLFP display remarkable coherence in time and spaceremarkable coherence in time and space
““Chorus of calamity” on Mexican FLFP may Chorus of calamity” on Mexican FLFP may overlook overlook
enormous changes in educationenormous changes in education
weakening power of patriarchy over married womenweakening power of patriarchy over married women
real advances of women in the workforce real advances of women in the workforce
2000 microdata tell the story2000 microdata tell the story
Calibration helps weigh strengths and Calibration helps weigh strengths and weaknesses of sourcesweaknesses of sources
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paper is on conference CDpaper is on conference CD