Www.idc.com Hrvatski dani Interneta 2002 Rijeka, 12-14 lipnja 2002 Boris Žitnik Country Manager IDC Croatia.

www.idc.com

Hrvatski dani Interneta 2002

Rijeka, 12-14 lipnja 2002

Hrvatski dani Interneta 2002

Rijeka, 12-14 lipnja 2002

Boris ŽitnikCountry Manager

IDC Croatia

Boris ŽitnikCountry Manager

IDC Croatia

AgendaAgenda

• IT Market Developments

• Internet Market Figures

• About IDC

• IT Market Developments

• Internet Market Figures

• About IDC

1010

100100

1,0001,000

19701970 19801980 19901990

IT Users (M)IT Users (M)

20002000 20102010

IT Spending ($B)IT Spending ($B)

5050

500500

5,0005,000

Automate Automate Back-OfficeBack-Office

AutomateAutomateFront-OfficeFront-Office

AutomateAutomateCustomersCustomers

The New Era of IT DevelopmentThe New Era of IT Development

September 11September 11

20012001

IT industry on the ropesIT industry on the ropes

Telecom winterTelecom winter

Dot-com crash to global recessionDot-com crash to global recession

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Worldwide US Western Europe

September 11 drops 4% off

growth

September 11 drops 4% off

growth

Source: IDC 2002Source: IDC 2002

Worldwide IT Spending Growth %Worldwide IT Spending Growth %

Last Year’s Spending CollapseLast Year’s Spending Collapse

The IT Business Cycle PatternThe IT Business Cycle Pattern

New technology initiates a new paradigm, creating a speculative bubble

New technology initiates a new paradigm, creating a speculative bubble

… which eventually leads to a new technology …

… which eventually leads to a new technology …

Long term exploitation of the new paradigm begins, with technology and business innovations that work within the constraints of current mega trends …

Long term exploitation of the new paradigm begins, with technology and business innovations that work within the constraints of current mega trends …

Reality strikes within 5 years, triggering a temporary slowdown

Reality strikes within 5 years, triggering a temporary slowdown

The Current ReboundThe Current Rebound

$150

$200

$250

$300

Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02 Q3 02 Q4 02 2H 01 02 03

Source: IDC 2002, estimated based on IDC WW Black BookSource: IDC 2002, estimated based on IDC WW Black Book

$ Billions

Quarterly SpendingQuarterly Spending

Quarterly AverageQuarterly Average

Worldwide Estimated Hardware Spending by Quarter Worldwide Estimated Hardware Spending by Quarter

Globalization vs. Regional Trends Globalization vs. Regional Trends

Last decade, starting from the fall of the Berlin Wall, we have been catching the low-hanging fruits of globalization

Next decade, we will be dealing with major political and economic discontinuities

As a result:

1) Globalization Trends will go through a number of “stop-and-go”

2) We will experience lot more economic conflicts and commercial wars among US, Europe and China

Last decade, starting from the fall of the Berlin Wall, we have been catching the low-hanging fruits of globalization

Next decade, we will be dealing with major political and economic discontinuities

As a result:

1) Globalization Trends will go through a number of “stop-and-go”

2) We will experience lot more economic conflicts and commercial wars among US, Europe and China

3) International Markets will be characterized by the Emergence of fast Regionalization Processes

4) We will experience a new role of geographies and mushrooming of new business opportunities and regional players in Europe

5) Europe will be a lot more attractive Market, because European Companies will be fighting for competitiveness, they’ll need leading technologies and infrastructures to become more efficient

6) Global Product Lines vs. Geographies

3) International Markets will be characterized by the Emergence of fast Regionalization Processes

4) We will experience a new role of geographies and mushrooming of new business opportunities and regional players in Europe

5) Europe will be a lot more attractive Market, because European Companies will be fighting for competitiveness, they’ll need leading technologies and infrastructures to become more efficient

6) Global Product Lines vs. Geographies

Globalization vs. Regional TrendsGlobalization vs. Regional Trends

Present Market ScenarioPresent Market Scenario

• We come from a very tough year

• Our perception is that the market has bottomed out in the last quarter of 2001, and that a slow, cautious and progressive recovery is in place

• WW IT spending 2002…5%; ...2003…10%

• Main positive indicators to support this perception

1) IDC’s Opportunity map

2) CIO magazine Recent Tech Poll

3) Our own sales are catching up

• We come from a very tough year

• Our perception is that the market has bottomed out in the last quarter of 2001, and that a slow, cautious and progressive recovery is in place

• WW IT spending 2002…5%; ...2003…10%

• Main positive indicators to support this perception

1) IDC’s Opportunity map

2) CIO magazine Recent Tech Poll

3) Our own sales are catching up

Asp

Apps LifeCycle Mngm

XML & Virtual DB.

Applic. Server

System Mngm SW

Security SWWeb Server SW

Businesware Mngt Syst.

IT Consulting

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%

100,0%

DW/BI

ERM

CRM

eCOMM

Apps Outs

InternetServices

Syst. Integr.

SW Supp.

Custom Sw. IS Outs.

Netw&Dtop Outs

Proc. Serv.HW Maint.

SCA

eLearning

ApplicationIntegration

Doc.& Cont. Mngm.

IT Security

CA

GR

200

1-20

02

CAGR 01-0218.2%

CAGR 01-029.8%

CAGR 01-0233.2%

CAGR 01-0223%

App.Develop&Infrastructure SWMission Critical ApplicationsInternet and xSP ServicesIT ServicesOther “Hot Segments”

IDC’s Treasure Map

Western Europe $307.2 billion

(27.9% of WW)

Western Europe $307.2 billion

(27.9% of WW)

CEE $13.1 billion

(1.2% of WW)

CEE $13.1 billion

(1.2% of WW)

Total = $1.101Total = $1.101 billion billionTotal = $1.101Total = $1.101 billion billion

Croatia $390 million

(2,9% of CEE)

Croatia $390 million

(2,9% of CEE)

IT Spending 2001IT Spending 2001

IT Spending/per capitaIT Spending/per capita

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

CZ HUN POL SK ROM CRO SLO BUL

Izvor: IDC, 2002Izvor: IDC, 2002

IT spending per capita in CEE, 2001 ($)IT spending per capita in CEE, 2001 ($)

IT spending ($ million)IT spending ($ million)

Source: IDC, 2002Source: IDC, 2002

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

IT Spending in Croatia, 1996 - 2003IT Spending in Croatia, 1996 - 2003

Internet FiguresInternet Figures

• Internet Users

• eCommerce

• Internet Users

• eCommerce

20042004900 Million900 Million

Source: IDC ICMM V 7.0Source: IDC ICMM V 7.0Source: IDC ICMM V 7.0Source: IDC ICMM V 7.0

20012001500 Million500 Million

20012001500 Million500 Million

Internet Users WorldwideInternet Users Worldwide

33% buy over the 33% buy over the WebWeb33% buy over the 33% buy over the WebWeb

$500 billion B2C, $500 billion B2C, 6-fold increase6-fold increase$500 billion B2C, $500 billion B2C, 6-fold increase6-fold increase

Internet Users – Doubling in NumbersInternet Users – Doubling in Numbers

Internet Users (year-end 2001)Internet Users (year-end 2001)

WW 500,2

Europe 167,4

Western Europe 151,3

CEE 16,1

Croatia 0,5

Internet users (million)Internet users (million)

Source: IDC, 2002Source: IDC, 2002

$Trillion

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

$Trillion

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

$2.5T$2.5T

$0.1T$0.1T

eBusiness 1.0 eBusiness 2.0

eCommerce WorldwideeCommerce Worldwide

eCommerce Spending, 2001 ($ billion)eCommerce Spending, 2001 ($ billion)

Total B2B B2C

WW 607,7 495,8 111,8

Europe 155,6 136,5 19,1

Western Europe 153,7 134,8 18,9

CEE 1,8 1,7 0,2

Croatia 0,021 0,019 0,002

Source: IDC, 2002Source: IDC, 2002

0000

5555

10101010

15151515

20202020

25252525

2000200020002000 2001200120012001 2002200220022002 2003200320032003 2004200420042004

Businesses with Web Sites ((Millions WorldwideMillions Worldwide))Businesses with Web Sites ((Millions WorldwideMillions Worldwide))

Source: IDC ICMM V7.0Source: IDC ICMM V7.0Source: IDC ICMM V7.0Source: IDC ICMM V7.0

All Web SitesAll Web Sites OutsourcedOutsourced

$36 billion $36 billion networked networked infrastructure infrastructure management management servicesservices

$36 billion $36 billion networked networked infrastructure infrastructure management management servicesservices

$85 billion Web $85 billion Web hostinghosting$85 billion Web $85 billion Web hostinghosting

Building More eBusinessesBuilding More eBusinesses

New Internet Users2002–2006New Internet Users2002–2006

553M 553M

Source: IDC Internet Commerce Market Model V 8.1, 2002Source: IDC Internet Commerce Market Model V 8.1, 2002

New Internet Users1994–2001New Internet Users1994–2001

500M 500M

Mobile94M

Mobile479M

Mobile & Wireless: LandscapeMobile & Wireless: Landscape

IDC HrvatskaIDC Hrvatska

•IDC u Hrvatskoj…1996. / OMNIAconsult

•IDC Hrvatska …srpanj 2001.

Područja djelovanjaPodručja djelovanja

• Priprema godišnjih i kvartalnih reporta (on the shelf produkti)

• Istraživanja i projekti po narudžbi

• Consulting

• IT konferencije

• Priprema godišnjih i kvartalnih reporta (on the shelf produkti)

• Istraživanja i projekti po narudžbi

• Consulting

• IT konferencije

• Systems (PCs, Systems & Servers)

• Communications (Internet Economy, Telecom)

• Office Equipment (Printers quarterly and annual, MFP, Copiers, Handheld)

• Software & Services (IT Services, EAS)

• Other (IT Executive Tracker)

• Systems (PCs, Systems & Servers)

• Communications (Internet Economy, Telecom)

• Office Equipment (Printers quarterly and annual, MFP, Copiers, Handheld)

• Software & Services (IT Services, EAS)

• Other (IT Executive Tracker)

“On The Shelf” produkti“On The Shelf” produkti

Ostali produktiOstali produkti

Usluge

• Istraživački projekti po narudžbi

• Inquiry hours

• Prezentacije

IT Konferencije

• Storage Roadshow, 02.05.2002.

Usluge

• Istraživački projekti po narudžbi

• Inquiry hours

• Prezentacije

IT Konferencije

• Storage Roadshow, 02.05.2002.