Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Fuels Used in Electricity Generation For U.S. Nuclear Infrastructure.

www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

Fuels Used in Electricity Generation

For

U.S. Nuclear Infrastructure Council

June 05, 2013 | Washington, DC

By

Adam Sieminski, Administrator

Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013

Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation

2

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

U.S. electricity net generation

trillion kilowatthours

25%

19%

42%

13%

1%

Nuclear

Oil and other liquids

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables

2011 ProjectionsHistory

17%

16%

35%

30%

1%

1993

53%

13%

19%

11%

4%

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013


3

Key results from the AEO2013 reference case relating to the electric power sector

• While coal still remains the largest single source of U.S. electricity generation, it’s role declines as natural gas and renewables pick up increasing market share

• Natural gas production is higher throughout the reference case projection than it was in AEO2012, serving the industrial and power sectors and an expanding export market

• Role of nuclear power in the U.S. generation mix stays relatively steady

• The U.S. becomes a larger exporter of natural gas and coal than was projected in the AEO2012 reference case

• U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain more than five percent below their 2005 level through 2040, reflecting increased efficiency and the shift to a less carbon-intensive fuel mix


4

Why we might could will be wrong?

• Changing policies and regulations

• Changing consumer preferences

• Faster / slower economic growth

• Faster / slower technological progress

• Different relative fuel prices

• Technological breakthroughs


5

Electricity demand: growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to 2040

19501954

19581962

19661970

19741978

19821986

19901994

19982002

20062010

20142018

20222026

20302034

2038-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

percent growth (3-year compounded annual growth rate)


History Projections

2011

Electricity Use

GDP 2.4%

0.9%

2011 – 2040average


6

Natural gas and coal prices: coal regains competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20302032

20342036

20382040

0

2

4

6

8

ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price


1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

2022

2026

2030

2034

2038

0

2

4

6

8

10

History Projections

2011 2011 dollars per Btu

History Projections2011

Competitive parity

Energy prices to the electric power sector

Coal

Natural gas

7

Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years


shale gas production (dry)

billion cubic feet per day

Sources: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of April 2013 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120

5

10

15

20

25

30Rest of US

Marcellus (PA and WV)

Haynesville (LA and TX)

Eagle Ford (TX)

Bakken (ND)

Woodford (OK)

Fayetteville (AR)

Barnett (TX)

Antrim (MI, IN, and OH)


8

New power plant costs: levelized cost of electricitycosts for new U.S. electricity power plants in 2018

2011 dollars per megawatthour


Offshore Wind

Solar PV

Pulverized Coal with CCS

IGCC Coal

Biomass

Nuclear

Pulverized Coal

Natural Gas Combined Cycle with CCS

Onshore Wind

Natural Gas Combined Cycle

0 50 100 150 200 250

Levelized Capital Cost

Fixed O&M Cost

Variable O&M Cost Including Fuel

Transmission Costs


9

The fuel mix for electricity generation varies widely across U.S. regions (2011)

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, based on Form EIA-923

National Average Minimum Maximum

Coal 42% 0% 80%

Natural Gas 25% 2% 87%

Nuclear 19% 0% 41%

Renewables 13% 1% 65%

Oil / Other 1% 0% 5%

Share of Generation by Fuel, 2011


10

The projected fuel mix for electricity generation by region (2040)


National Average Minimum Maximum

Coal 35% 0% 69%

Natural Gas 30% 2% 81%

Nuclear 17% 0% 36%

Renewables 16% 1% 53%

Oil / Other 1% 0% 2%

Share of Generation by Fuel, 2040


11

Additions to electricity generation capacity, 1985-2040U.S. electricity generation capacity additions

gigawatts

Source: EIA Form 860 & EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013

19851988

19911994

19972000

20032006

20092012

20152018

20212024

20272030

20332036

20390

10

20

30

40

50

60 Coal HydroNatural Gas Nuclear WindSolar

ProjectionHistory


12

Changes in nuclear capacity for the AEO2013 reference case

gigawatts


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

101.18.0

5.5 5.5 7.1113.1


13

Nuclear relevant side cases in AEO2013

• High/low nuclear

• High/low oil and gas resource

• Small modular reactors (SMRs) ???

• CO2 fee cases


14

High Oil and Gas Resource (low natural gas prices)

Low Oil and Gas Resource (high natural gas prices)

Low Nuclear

High Nuclear

Reference

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

capacity additions

gigawatts


Planned Unplanned

Nuclear capacity additions in AEO2013 vary under different assumptions


15

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

20162018

20202022

20242026

20282030

20322034

20362038

20400

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

If natural gas prices stay low, coal is permanently displaced as the leading generation source in the near future

billion kilowatthours


Coal

Natural Gas

Reference

High Oil and Natural Gas Resource

Projections


16

2011

Reference

Low Oil and Gas Resource

High Oil and Gas Resource

Low Coal Cost

High Coal Cost

0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250

capacity

gigawatts


Coal

Oil/gas steam

Natural gas combined cycle

Nuclear

Natural gas combustion turbine

Renewable/other

2040

Power sector electricity generation capacity by fuel in five cases, 2011 and 2040


17

Small Modular Reactors (SMR)

• SMR technology differs from traditional, large-scale light-water reactor technology in both reactor size and plant scalability

• EIA conducted a side case to evaluate the effect of a shorter construction period on future nuclear capacity expansion

• The case showed that there are potential cost saving from the shorter construction periods but uncertainty about potential future operations costs remains.


18

Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2013 reference case and carbon fee allowance side casesU.S. electricity net generation

trillion kilowatthours


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

0

1

2

3

4

5

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

0

1

2

3

4

5

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

0

1

2

3

4

52013 Reference Case

Natural gas

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

2011

24%

13%

19%

42%

30%

16%

17%

35%

Natural gas

$15 Carbon Fee

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

34%

22%

27%

16%

$25 Carbon Fee

Natural gas

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

34%

23%

38%

4%

19

U.S. dependence on imported liquids depends on both supply and demandU.S. liquid fuel supply

million barrels per day

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 and Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2013

19701973

19761979

19821985

19881991

19941997

20002003

20062009

20122015

20182021

20242027

20302033

20362039

0

5

10

15

20

25

Consumption

Domestic supply

Net imports

37%

ProjectionsHistory

Petroleum Exports

-8%

32% STEO forecast for 2014

2014

40%

2012



20

Keynote Speakers

Dr. Ernest J. MonizU.S. Secretary of Energy

Lisa MurkowskiUnited States Senator

Alaska

Thomas FanningChairman, President and CEO

Southern Company

Aldo Flores-QuirogaSecretary GeneralInternational Energy Forum

Hans RoslingChairmanGapminder

EIA.gov


21

For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo

Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly

Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual

http://www.eia.gov/

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual

Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Fuels Used in Electricity Generation For U.S. Nuclear Infrastructure.

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